Early 2015 Hitter Projections
With trade deadlines coming up at the end end of the month, we are are going to publish some 2015 hitter projections to help owners make more informed decisions. (Pitchers maybe later in the weak – I hate dealing with Saves and Wins so it may just be ERA, K, and WHIP). These are projections, just projections … an estimate of how a hitter will perform in 2015. The list should give owners a decent starting point when setting keepers or last minute trades for the next year.
Notes:
• I averaged the rest of season Steamer and/or ZIPS projections. Sometimes only one or the other was available so only one was used at times. The rest of season the projections are a good attempt at getting the player’s talent level right now. The values are close to the 2015 projection with the exception of the September numbers.
• The values were all set to 600 plate appearances. The spreadsheet can be download (File → Download As → Select your file) and the PA can be adjusted and then the rest of the values will adjust automatically. Besides PA, any of the other values can be adjusted as an owner sees fit.
• For the total value, I used the Standing Points Gain method I describe here. I have not updated the equation for 2014 season leagues, but it should be close to the same values.
Link to 2015 Hitter Projections
A few thoughts.
• Miguel Cabrera’s lock as a top two hitter is less secure. Trout should be #1 and #2 should have a few more options in 2015.
• Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez will keep getting taken in the first couple rounds as long as they have the potential for a top five season.
• If some of the SB-only guys played a whole season (Rajai Davis and Jarrod Dyson), their value would jump.
• Javier Baez at #27 is interesting. The 30 HR/20 SB potential is ballooning his value.
• Matt Kemp with 14 SB … yea right. This value I would personally lower.
• Drew Stubbs’s 27 HR is not going to happen. Fantasy owners need to understand he hits LHP better and is used mainly as a platoon option. His PA should be adjusted to ~300 to take the platooning into account.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I hope I am in a league where Dyson and Davis go in the top 20.
I’m not certain he meant they’d move into the top 20. Or am I mistaken?
Ok, lesson learned by me. Read the spreadsheet before making a comment. Therefore, I agree with Steve. Ha.
that’s a huge turn around for braun next year
does this not consider positional scarcity?
Just tested it, nope, doesnt look like it.
No Kris Bryant?
Doesn’t it say Stubbs will have 16 homers, and 27 steals?
Alfonso Soriano at 29?
I don’t believe Alfonso Soriano will be #29 hitter in 2015.
Interesting line for Andrew Lambo
Among the lines that jump out: Why is hunter pence only hitting 17 HR in 600 ab’s next year? He’s forever underrated.
The question is will Dyson and davis be able to keep the same level of production with the extra PA. Playing 162 games a year wears players down and the league adjusts
Look at Dee Gordon
April/May 34 SB 3 CS
June onward : 23 SB 12 CS
Plus, when you play sporadically, you are generally played in a matchups situation. Meeting, your part time opportunity is your best chance at being descent and any extra time is below replacement player type stuff. Not sure if it’s true here (cause I really don’t care to dive into these 2 players numbers), but it is often true.
Excellent point.
Thanks for this, Jeff.
One that stood out for me: Rendon @98. Even not adjusted for position, and taking out the platoon guys… um, I hope people value him as the 98th best hitter come draft day.
The most interesting thing I found was 1 HR=1 SB, 1 R=1 RBI, 3 RBI=1 HR, .033 BA = 1 HR
I didnt know that before, which is why I found it interesting. Now I know.
These are cool… but if you sort by hits it shows Chone Figgins as going 200-400 with no runs, rbi, steals and homers for a .500 average. Thought that was funny.
Kemp’s got 8 SB this year, if he managed to avoid the DL next year I don’t see how 14 SB is an unreasonable projection.
Erisbel Arraburrena is sure in for a tough season: 100-600 with 0 R, 0 RBI, 0 Steals.