Early 2015 Hitter Projections

With trade deadlines coming up at the end end of the month, we are are going to publish some 2015 hitter projections to help owners make more informed decisions.  (Pitchers maybe later in the weak – I hate dealing with Saves and Wins so it may just be ERA, K, and WHIP). These are projections, just projections … an estimate of how a hitter will perform in 2015. The list should give owners a decent starting point when setting keepers or last minute trades for the next year.

Notes:

• I averaged the rest of season Steamer and/or ZIPS projections. Sometimes only one or the other was available so only one was used at times. The rest of season the projections are a good attempt at getting the player’s talent level right now. The values are close to the 2015 projection with the exception of the September numbers.

• The values were all set to 600 plate appearances. The spreadsheet can be download (File → Download As → Select your file) and the PA can be adjusted and then the rest of the values will adjust automatically. Besides PA, any of the other values can be adjusted as an owner sees fit.

• For the total value, I used the Standing Points Gain method I describe here. I have not updated the equation for 2014 season leagues, but it should be close to the same values.

Link to 2015 Hitter Projections

A few thoughts.

Miguel Cabrera’s lock as a top two hitter is less secure. Trout should be #1 and #2 should have a few more options in 2015.

Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez will keep getting taken in the first couple rounds as long as they have the potential for a top five season.

• If some of the SB-only guys played a whole season (Rajai Davis and Jarrod Dyson), their value would jump.

Javier Baez at #27 is interesting. The 30 HR/20 SB potential is ballooning his value.

Matt Kemp with 14 SB … yea right. This value I would personally lower.

Drew Stubbs’s 27 HR is not going to happen. Fantasy owners need to understand he hits  LHP better and is used mainly as a platoon option. His PA should be adjusted to ~300 to take the platooning into account.

We hoped you liked reading Early 2015 Hitter Projections by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Steve
Guest
Steve

I hope I am in a league where Dyson and Davis go in the top 20.

Chicago Mark
Guest
Chicago Mark

I’m not certain he meant they’d move into the top 20. Or am I mistaken?

Chicago Mark
Guest
Chicago Mark

Ok, lesson learned by me. Read the spreadsheet before making a comment. Therefore, I agree with Steve. Ha.