• A bunch of small updates in the spreadsheet at the bottom of this page. More news has been coming out over the past couple of weeks as we get closer to the start of spring training.

• Miguel Cabrera may not be ready for opening day.

Cabrera’s big test comes in February when he consults Robert Anderson, a Charlotte, N.C., orthopedic surgeon who also repaired the broken ankle of retired Yankees star Derek Jeter.

“His rehab has gone well,” Rand said. “He’s in a partial weight-bearing stage, six weeks in a boot, which began just before Christmas. He’ll got back and see Dr. Anderson next month and hope the CT scan will show that everything’s well and that he can move into a full weight-bearing program.”

The Tigers, though, acknowledge Cabrera will have work to do even if he gets a thumbs-up at next month’s exam. They cannot say with assurance their spotlight hitter will be 100 percent on Opening Day.

We will find out more next month. If you have an early draft, I may stay away from him.

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Mat Latos began and ended his 2014 season by missing time because of injuries. Between the two layoffs, he seemed to produce like he did in the past with a 3.25 ERA (3.34 for his career). One difference between his previous couple of seasons and 2014 was a huge drop in strikeouts. They went from 8.0 K/9 in both 2012 and 2013 to 6.5 K/9 in 2014. The biggest reason for the decline in strikeouts was a near 2 mph drop in his fastball velocity. This off season he was traded from the Reds to the Marlins where he hopes regain some of the zip on his fastball, but I wouldn’t count on it.

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• Jason Kipnis may not be ready for the season’s start because of finger surgery.

“We are optimistic he’s going to be able to do a lot in Spring Training,” said Quinlan, adding the recovery time is variable. “To give you some idea, we are pretty optimistic he’s going to be able to do fielding and throwing and doing all aspects of baseball activity with the exception of hitting by the start of Spring Training, when he reports to Spring Training.

“As you know, the forces involved in gripping the bat and hitting are a little bit more extensive, so that will be the last thing he starts. We are optimistic he’ll also be on some form of hit-ting progression at the start of Spring Training.”

I don’t know if his value could be any lower after his struggles during the 2014 season and now this injury. It will be interesting to see where he ends up getting valued. I could see it all over the place and will step in if his value drops enough.

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As our own Brad Johnson stated today, one of the reasons pitchers are difficult to evaluate in their inconsistencies. One of the biggest reasons for the inconsistencies is pitcher health. While a few hitters can lose an entire season because of injury, it is just a fraction compared to pitchers who have to sit out.  To help understand each pitcher’s injury risk, I will release my 2015 starting pitcher rankings.

I have been releasing the values for a few seasons with accurate results. Last season, I estimated 50 of the 128 pitchers who threw 120 innings in 2013 would end up on the DL. I was a little low since 53 starters made a least one trip. It work out to 41% or 2 out of every 5 starters. The percentage always seems to hover around 40%.

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• I am going to dissect the DL data since 2002 in any possible way. I already plan on examining team trends, position trends and how certain injuries affect production. Is there anything else you would like look at while I am going over the information?

• At MLB TradeRumors, I examined if the amount of career pitches makes a difference on a pitcher’s health and came to the following conclusion.

Boras continues to mention Scherzer’s pitching odometer as an advantage over Lester and Shields. However, the number of pitches thrown is not indicative of future injury. A high number shows the pitcher can hold up to the grind of being able to successfully throw for full seasons. The main issue between the three pitchers is age. Scherzer is four years younger than Shields. Scherzer’s body may still be able to hold up a bit better than the other pair, but they are still some of the healthiest pitchers in the league. The debate about the trio’s durability should begin and end with age.

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• Robinson Cano broke his toe playing in Japan. Here is the latest news on his situation.

Cano also said he was encouraged by the fact that he woke up Sunday feeling better than expected. MLB doctors examined him late Sunday night, determining that he should be able to resume regular offseason workouts in mid-December. Cano expects to be back to normal well in advance of Spring Training.

“I thought it was going to be worse today, but just a little pain,” he said. “It’s just something that’s bothering me. Hopefully I’ll recover in four weeks and nothing else happens.”

The key to see if he is healthy in spring training monitor his ability to run … well run as good as he could previously.

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• I have one must read and it was just published a couple of hours ago by Sam Fuld on dealing with a brain damage concussions.

Traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) are similar to other injuries in that they require time and rest in order to improve. That lost time is why most athletes drive ourselves crazy when deciding whether or not to keep our injuries quiet. What happens if we miss some action and our replacement from Triple-A plays great? What about the dreaded label of being “injury prone?!?!” Whether you’re an All-Star, a fringe major leaguer or a young minor leaguer, nobody wants an organization to think you’re an injury risk.

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Paul Goldschmidt was having a great season until he got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist in August. He was hitting home runs, had an .300 AVG and was still getting some steals (nine). It was just another All-Star caliber season until the broke wrist ended his season.

The main issue with him going into 2015  will be if his wrist is still bothering him. To see how player’s performed after wrist issues, I looked at hitter production the season before, of, and after a similar wrist injury.

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• Jon Roegele at The Hardball Times examined the recovery success rates for Tommy John surgeries. Here are a couple of the major points.

To summarize, this examination of Tommy John surgery has shown that while the overall success rate has not seemingly improved over time, in recent years players have been able to get back on the field in the same league faster than they did when the surgery was less common.

And

As far as attrition goes, there is naturally a downward trend for return rates as players age. Comparing Tommy John survivors to all major league pitchers (injured and non-injured, in the last column) shows that recovering from the surgery tends to occur at around the same rate as typical pitchers manage to stay in the league for a given age range. Some age bands are better, some worse, but with sample sizes this small for Tommy John patients it is hard to make a definitive statement in this regard.

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• OK, I got the data finally cleaned up. I have quite a few players added who look to be back for 2015, but I will keep them on until some resolution is complete. For example, John Hamilton is messed up. I will keep him on there to track him until he is playing 100%. Basically, I would rather have a potentially healthy player on the list than miss someone who may be hurt.

• Quite a few players state they will be ready for spring training which is vague. For any player giving spring training as a return time, I set their date to February in the spreadsheet.

• Adam Wainwright’s elbow is acting up as gets near the point when pitchers have their second Tommy John surgery. He came back pitching in 2012. Since then he has thrown three full seasons (582 IP) and nine post season games (54 IP). He is at the sweet spot for when pitchers need their 2nd TJS as I state in this Hardball Times article:

I ran a brief study using the up-to-date TJS database and found those pitchers who had their first TJS from before 2011 averaged 4.5 years until they needed to go under the knife again, with a median time of 4.0 years. These numbers are in the ballpark of the 650 innings value we originally found.

The seasons are bit on the low side, but he is at 636 innings. No matter how the post season goes for him, I will not be paying top dollar for him next season

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