Archive for Injuries

On Tuesday, we had a mini-debate in the comments regarding the early season availability of Justin Turner. The Dodgers third baseman underwent microfracture surgery this winter, a procedure that often includes a winding path back to full time reps.

Early reports had Turner missing part of the regular season. More recently, it’s been said he’ll be “100 percent” by Opening Day. I have my doubts, but it got me thinking about how to value him in a fantasy draft. My thoughts on the subject don’t merit a full post. To make up for it, I’ll offer some opinions about Miguel Sano and Aroldis Chapman too.

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• I am not sure if Anibal Sanchez’s shoulder tendinitis will delay the start of his 2016 season. He is throwing off the mound right now with the possibility of returning in a week.

• Carter Capps chances of closing increased some with A.J. Ramos dealing with a strained calf. I still think Ramos has the inside track to be the closer if he can get back on the mound soon.

• I have been reporting that Tommy John surgery returners should be in the majors in about 14 months. It seems like the Braves are now looking at 16 months.

Instead of aiming to have Simmons back pitching on a rehab stint in about 12 months and back in the big leagues in 13-14 months, as they would have in the past, the Braves are aiming to have him back in the majors in May or June. That would be 15-16 months after his February 2015 surgery.

“I guess technically I’m healthy,” said Simmons, who has thrown a few times off the bullpen mound recently. “But they want to take me a little slower. They’re doing the new protocol that they’re going by, so we’re looking at about 14 months (before beginning a rehab assignment). I guess they just want to test it and see the success rates compared to the past.

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• The MASH report will be going bi-weekly from now until the season’s ends. I will not have any reports the week starting on March 7th as I will be on vacation.

• In last week’s MASH report I reported the first player was placed on the 60-day DL. Some confusion always exists around the 60-day DL, so here are the basics.

1. There is no requirement for a team to put any player on the 60-day DL. A player can be on the 15-day DL all season.
2. The reason for the 60-day DL is to open up a 40 man roster spot. Teams will wait to make this move when they have a need for an extra spot when a non-forty-man-roster rookie is called up to the majors or a free agent is signed. Not before. Five more players were added to the 60-day DL and each move was so the team could pick up an additional player.

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• Joe Mauer stated that since a 2013 concussion his vision has been affected.

Twins first baseman Joe Mauer told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that his vision has been affected by the concussion that ended his 2013 season, especially during day games, as the sun makes it tough for him to pick up the ball. Mauer’s offensive production has declined the past two seasons.

Mauer, who switched to first base in 2014 after sustaining the concussion from a foul tip while catching, is going to try something new this spring, as he’ll wear sunglasses while batting for the first time.
…
The statistics seem to back up Mauer’s assertions, as Mauer hit .248/.316/.354 with three homers and 25 RBIs in 61 day games last year, but batted .276/.352/.396 with seven homers and 41 RBIs in 97 night games. He also struck out in 17.4 percent of his plate appearances during the day, but had a strikeout rate of 16.5 percent during night games.

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• While looking through the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, I came across some information on reporting injuries. First, here is the form to be submitted to MLB to request a DL stint.

Additionally, there is quite a bit of information on reporting the various injuries starting on page 152 (page 165 of the .pdf). The major injury types are divided up into 12 classes: head, neck, shoulder, arm/elbow, wrist/hand/fingers, chest/back/spine, pelvis/hips, upper leg/thigh, lower leg/knee, ankle/foot/toes, internal organs, and ailments.

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• In my December 10th MASH article, I ran Rob Arthur’s projected days missed for hitters. Commentor jfee noted:

the total batter injury days projects out unrealistically low.
Projected days lost to injury – 2700
Days lost last year – 7643
Days lost prev year – 6015
Days lost year 3 – 5391

I can understand why player turnover would lead to the difference in actual injury from last year to yr3. But projecting that these same players will, next year, become so so healthy seems to involve PED’s (or perhaps a baseline injury rate – regression intercept – that hasn’t been included)

I finally found some time to look into the question and he was right. Using just linear regression and the inputs to the equation, I came up with the formula which set a min of 10 days missed per player:

Total DL days = 4.8 + .26 * age + 0.1 * DL Days in Year -1 + 0.03 * DL Days in Year -2 + 0.02 * DL Days in Year -3

Besides the age and constant, the other three numbers were close to Rob’s numbers:

Days missed this year = .18*(days missed last year) + .1*(days missed two years prior) + .02*(days missed three years prior) + .004*Player’s Age

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• After an injury filled 2015 season, Marco Gonzales will try to stay healthy in 2016, but will start the season as the Cardinals’ 6th starter.

With his shoulder strengthened and his mind clear, Gonzales can pitch himself back into the big-league mix this spring. While there’s not an obvious spot for him in the rotation, he will be jockeying for position on the depth chart. The Cardinals will also consider their three young, lefty starters — Gonzales, Cooney and Lyons — for possible bullpen inclusion.

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• Yesterday, I took requests for injury information and decided to go with Sam Berger’s request.

@jeffwzimmerman This maybe a really stupid idea: pitch type profile (ie frequency pitcher throws certain pitches) and odds of DL a/o TJ.

— CarrotJuice (@TheDudeOfNY) January 20, 2016

There were about 1000 routes I could have taken for the answer, but I went with the following:

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I heard a recent podcast discussion on whether or not it is safe to draft Michael Pineda based on his Tommy John surgery chances in 2016. Pineda would definitely be considered a risk because of the month he spent on the DL with a forearm strain and the way his velocity oscillated around the time of the injury.

Coming into the 2016 season, I pegged his DL chances at 51%. Going on the DL for a couple of weeks or missing more than an entire season are two completely different outcomes. The following is a deep dive into Pineda’s and other pitchers’ Tommy John surgery chances.

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• Kenta Maeda was recently signed by the Dodgers and looks to have some major elbow issues which will eventually cost him some playing time.

The sides agreed to a deal before the new year, but a source told Crasnick that concerns arose over he pitcher’s elbow during a physical. A source told ESPN’s Jim Bowden that the Dodgers also see an issue with Maeda’s shoulder and that a ligament in his elbow is indeed compromised. However, the 27-year-old has been pitching with both issues.

According to a source, the Dodgers know that Maeda will require surgery at some point but feel that signing him is still worth it if they can get three or four useful years out of him.

I have no clue where I am going to value him right now. I have heard his production and arsenal are similar to what Kuroda had which isn’t great. I think the buzz and unknown nature will get him overvalued.

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