• The MASH report will be going bi-weekly from now until the season’s ends. I will not have any reports the week starting on March 7th as I will be on vacation.
• In last week’s MASH report I reported the first player was placed on the 60-day DL. Some confusion always exists around the 60-day DL, so here are the basics.
There is no requirement for a team to put any player on the 60-day DL. A player can be on the 15-day DL all season.
The reason for the 60-day DL is to open up a 40 man roster spot. Teams will wait to make this move when they have a need for an extra spot when a non-forty-man-roster rookie is called up to the majors or a free agent is signed. Not before. Five more players were added to the 60-day DL and each move was so the team could pick up an additional player.
Twins first baseman Joe Mauer told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that his vision has been affected by the concussion that ended his 2013 season, especially during day games, as the sun makes it tough for him to pick up the ball. Mauer’s offensive production has declined the past two seasons.
Mauer, who switched to first base in 2014 after sustaining the concussion from a foul tip while catching, is going to try something new this spring, as he’ll wear sunglasses while batting for the first time.
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The statistics seem to back up Mauer’s assertions, as Mauer hit .248/.316/.354 with three homers and 25 RBIs in 61 day games last year, but batted .276/.352/.396 with seven homers and 41 RBIs in 97 night games. He also struck out in 17.4 percent of his plate appearances during the day, but had a strikeout rate of 16.5 percent during night games.
• While looking through the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, I came across some information on reporting injuries. First, here is the form to be submitted to MLB to request a DL stint.
Additionally, there is quite a bit of information on reporting the various injuries starting on page 152 (page 165 of the .pdf). The major injury types are divided up into 12 classes: head, neck, shoulder, arm/elbow, wrist/hand/fingers, chest/back/spine, pelvis/hips, upper leg/thigh, lower leg/knee, ankle/foot/toes, internal organs, and ailments.
the total batter injury days projects out unrealistically low.
Projected days lost to injury – 2700
Days lost last year – 7643
Days lost prev year – 6015
Days lost year 3 – 5391
I can understand why player turnover would lead to the difference in actual injury from last year to yr3. But projecting that these same players will, next year, become so so healthy seems to involve PED’s (or perhaps a baseline injury rate – regression intercept – that hasn’t been included)
I finally found some time to look into the question and he was right. Using just linear regression and the inputs to the equation, I came up with the formula which set a min of 10 days missed per player:
Total DL days = 4.8 + .26 * age + 0.1 * DL Days in Year -1 + 0.03 * DL Days in Year -2 + 0.02 * DL Days in Year -3
Besides the age and constant, the other three numbers were close to Rob’s numbers:
Days missed this year = .18*(days missed last year) + .1*(days missed two years prior) + .02*(days missed three years prior) + .004*Player’s Age
With his shoulder strengthened and his mind clear, Gonzales can pitch himself back into the big-league mix this spring. While there’s not an obvious spot for him in the rotation, he will be jockeying for position on the depth chart. The Cardinals will also consider their three young, lefty starters — Gonzales, Cooney and Lyons — for possible bullpen inclusion.
I heard a recent podcast discussion on whether or not it is safe to draft Michael Pineda based on his Tommy John surgery chances in 2016. Pineda would definitely be considered a risk because of the month he spent on the DL with a forearm strain and the way his velocity oscillated around the time of the injury.
Coming into the 2016 season, I pegged his DL chances at 51%. Going on the DL for a couple of weeks or missing more than an entire season are two completely different outcomes. The following is a deep dive into Pineda’s and other pitchers’ Tommy John surgery chances.
• Kenta Maeda was recently signed by the Dodgers and looks to have some major elbow issues which will eventually cost him some playing time.
The sides agreed to a deal before the new year, but a source told Crasnick that concerns arose over he pitcher’s elbow during a physical. A source told ESPN’s Jim Bowden that the Dodgers also see an issue with Maeda’s shoulder and that a ligament in his elbow is indeed compromised. However, the 27-year-old has been pitching with both issues.
According to a source, the Dodgers know that Maeda will require surgery at some point but feel that signing him is still worth it if they can get three or four useful years out of him.
I have no clue where I am going to value him right now. I have heard his production and arsenal are similar to what Kuroda had which isn’t great. I think the buzz and unknown nature will get him overvalued.
The plan for Hultzen is to just get him pitching again and see if he can get his shoulder strengthened up enough to compete at some level for a full season. I don’t think they’re worried about rushing him to the Majors or stretching him out for future years. At this point, he just needs to get back on the mound and show he can stay healthy, and the short-term thought is that might be easier in a relief role. One step at a time there.
• Joe Lemire of USA Today wrote an article on the current state injuries and their prevention. Not a bunch of groundbreaking data, but I did find a bit of data I could study.
“We know teams will shut players down if they see certain changes,” TrackMan Baseball general manager John Olshan said, adding that conversely some clubs will hold back a player in rehab until his pitching measurements reach a certain threshold. “They might not know why that’s happening, but they know that somehow the player is compensating.”
I am not sure I am going to go back through the 2015 season look for data, but may be able to track through the 2016 season.
• At the Hardball Times, my year in review on the disabled list. The one item I was happy to make available is this time on the DL estimator. Not the most useful now, but will be great to use once the season starts.
The need for a second surgery means that Molina will not be fully cleared for the start of Spring Train-ing, general manager John Mozeliak confirmed on Wednesday. The Cardinals do expect him to be ready by Opening Day, Mozeliak added, but that will ultimately be determined by how quickly Molina can regain strength in that thumb.
To try to expedite the healing and limit mobility, Molina will wear a full cast for the next several weeks.
“I think by the end of January, the cast should be off and then he’ll begin his strengthening exercises throughout the month of February and March,” Mozeliak said. “The biggest question will be: When will he swing a bat? They don’t feel like any of this should affect how he catches or when he can catch, but to have him ready by Opening Day, [swinging] will really be the test.”
Sounds like Molina’s production level will come down for a bit, but, as always, the full extent is not known yet. Looking at some past similar injuries, 50% of the players took 60-74 days to return which is in line with the Cardinals report. Additionally, no instances exist of the return taking more than 74 days.
