With the Winter Meetings in full swing, the Hot Stove keeps crackling with a host of impactful moves on Tuesday afternoon, including two fantasy relevant outfielders switching leagues to find their new teams.

Andrew McCutchen signs a 3-year, $50 million-dollar deal with PHI

Cutch slid under the radar a bit in 2018 with a season split between SF and NYY. He was perfectly solid in 130 games with the Giants, putting up 15 HR and 13 SB with a 115 wRC+. Unsurprisingly, his power was held down out west as his .160 ISO would’ve been a career-low had he not been dealt to the Bronx for the final month.

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I’m a little weary of the Hot Stove season until about 80% of the free agents have signed. Team compositions change so fast that research done one day is irrelevant the next. Instead of wasting my energy, I normally focus on other topics and wait for everything to settle down and come into focus. Like, how much will Manny Machado’s value change if he signs with the Phillies or the Yankees? Or even the White Sox? Not much if his profile was written now or right after his season ended. He’s still going to be valued in the top-20 picks.

It’s hard sometimes for baseball fans, who play fantasy baseball, to differentiate the general excitement around a baseball move to one that makes a legitimate change in value.

That being said, some free agent signings do have a little more variance depending on where the player signs Jonathan Schoop and Nathan Eovaldi are two such players. Both maxed out their value with their recent signings. Here are my two cents on each.
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Paul Goldschmidt is off to the Midwest!

Source: Arizona Paul Goldschmidt has been traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young and a draft pick are headed back.

Quite a haul for Arizona.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2018

The 31-year old first baseman is being dealt for Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young, and compensation pick as you can see in that Passan tweet above. Once the rumors started, this made a ton of sense to me. Goldy just feels like a Cardinals player. So much so that I wouldn’t even be surprised if they re-sign him after this season.

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Reports are out that Patrick Corbin has pulled a stunner and will sign not with the Yankees nor the Phillies, but the Washington Nationals in a six-year, $140 million dollar deal (with no opt-outs):

Source confirms that Patrick Corbin's six-year deal with the Washington Nationals is for $140 million.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 4, 2018

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It’s been a chilly offseason thus far, even with the big James Paxton trade last week, but the Braves have singlehandedly helped spark the hot stove with a couple big moves on Monday. Let’s take a look at the fantasy fallout from the latest set of moves:

Nationals Sign Kurt Suzuki

This is actually a return for Suzuki as he spent part of 2012 and 2013 with them, though you might’ve missed it given his meager .239/.297/.344 line with the larger sample in ’13 netting just a 57 wRC+ in 79 games. He meandered his way through three mediocre seasons in Minnesota (86 wRC+) before landing in Atlanta where he enjoyed a mid-30s surge. He put up the best work of his career with a robust 116 wRC+, 31 HR, and 100 RBI in 697 PA in a dynamic platoon with Tyler Flowers.

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Today, I start the process examining who the industry, owners, and myself missed on with their preseason evaluations. Did a smoking gun exist and everyone missed it or was there no way to guess the outcome?  I’m going to start with two pitchers who had smoking guns, I wrote about the smoking guns, and then I totally ignored them.

The two starters are Gerrit Cole and Anibal Sanchez. Back in February, I highlighted both in a pitch mix change article. Looking back, I made a convincing case for taking a chance on either one. I spent a few hours doing the research and when it came to draft day, I never picked up a share. I failed as both overperformed.

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The All-Star game has come and gone, but the festivities are ongoing here at RotoGraphs. It’s time to rank the first half’s “All-Sell-High Team.” These are players who had big first halves, but who aren’t necessarily the best bets to repeat that performance in the second half. Without further ado, let’s get right to the list: Read the rest of this entry »

I’m continuing to analyze the valuation changes for players who may be on the move at the trade deadline. I’m using MLBTraderumors.com’s list 50 players most likely to be traded. I’m going over #6 to #10 today.

#6 Wilson Ramos

While any team, besides the Astros and maybe the Dodgers, could use a decent second catcher. For this reason, Ramos isn’t likely headed to be the #1 guy for many of the top teams. While his new team’s offense may be better, the possible lost plate appearances will keep his value relatively constant.

Jesus Sucre gains the most fantasy value as he becomes the fulltime catcher. Sucre is nothing special but in AL-only leagues, the extra plate appearances help. As for the new backup catcher, either Adam Moore or Nick Ciuffo will likely get the call from Triple-A.

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Teams are beginning to make the hard call if they are going to buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. I’ll start investigating the players most likely to be traded, how their value will change, and their possible replacements. I’m not going to make the call on who is or isn’t going to be moved. I’m going to rely on the great writers at MLBTradeRumors.com and use their top-50 trade candidate list. I’ll start with the top five players.

1. Manny Machado

Machado is nearly a perfect trade chip. A complete hitter who can play either shortstop or third base. I can’t envision a single scenario where his value takes a hit. He may end up in a pitcher-friendly park but he’ll be hitting in the middle of a better lineup. It can’t be worse than Baltimore’s lineup.

Every single contending team could use Machado as an upgrade while some teams need him worse. Trying to pick a destination right now is about impossible. I’m a little worried he’s more likely headed to the National League for those owners with him in AL-only leagues. I don’t see Baltimore trading him to the Yankees or Red Sox to help them win a World Series.

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It has been quite a while since we did one of these because the Hot Stove has been so ice cold. We’re finally starting to see big moves as the stove thaws and I expect a steady stream of moves for the duration of the offseason until the bulk of available players find homes.

Yu Darvish to CHC

Darvish stays in the NL and heads to Chicago to join the Cubs. I had him ranked 13th in my most recent SP ranking update back in late-January and I can’t imagine moving him much, if at all, on my next update. He remains well supported by a deep bullpen and strong offense. Don’t get too hung up on the World Series starts. A week before that he was dismantling his new team (6.3 IP/1 ER/7 K in NLCS) and the Diamondbacks (5 IP/1 ER/7 K in NLDS). Your Mike Montgomery shares just went the way of Bitconnect for now, but in leagues deep enough to take him in the first place, he’ll still hold some value as a super reliever (just 7 appearances of an inning or less last year).

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