The Plate Discipline stat section provides us with a lot of “underlying skill” information. Since these metrics use a denominator that grows more quickly than more traditional metrics such as strikeout and walk rates, they are more useful over small sample sizes, especially after a short season. So let’s now move on to hitter O-Swing% to learn which hitters reduced their swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone and which swung more often at such pitches. Since 2019, O-Swing% had about a -0.74 correlation with walk rate, so it’s clearly that holding back on swinging on pitches outside the zone is an excellent indicator of plate patience and current/future walk rate.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the biggest hitter Z-Contact% improvers. Today, let’s flip to the decliners.

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In a recent episode of the podcast, I spoke with Alex Fast about some potential breakout starting pitchers at different levels and I really enjoyed that so I want to do the same for hitting. Today, we are going to identify some players who be the next Top 75 players. Just to give you an idea of that range, hitters like Pete Alonso and Adam Duvall were just inside in the Top 75 while Eric Hosmer and Kevin Pillar were juuust outside. So these are solid fantasy contributors for sure.

Sean Murphy, C | 205 ADP, 280 Player Rater

Murphy has been strong in two small MLB samples, totaling exactly 200 PA of a 132 wRC+ with 11 HR. The 27% K rate is born of no plan at the dish or a stark inability to make contact meaning there could be some improvement there, pushing his .237 AVG northward. The power will drive this profile and be a huge factor in whether or not he can reach this level while he also needs to be much closer to his MiLB .267 AVG, too.

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Let’s move along in our 2020 review of underlying skill metrics to the plate discipline rates. While the shortened season makes it difficult to evaluate many metrics, and especially counting stats, plate discipline rates don’t take as long to reach a reasonable sample size because it uses a pitch-based denominator which ends up as a larger number than most other rate denominators. From 2015 through 2019, Z-Contact% had a correlation coefficient with K% of about -0.82 when requiring a minimum of only 100 plate appearances. That’s pretty darn strong! So let’s review and discuss the Z-Contact% improvers versus 2019, that recorded at least 100 plate appearances in each season.

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed the fly ball pull percentage (FBP%) surgers versus 2019. Though the shortened 2020 season means we have far smaller samples sizes to evaluate and significantly less meaningful data, changes to batted ball type data like fly ball rates, pull rates, and fly ball pull rates, are worth noting. They could signify a real change in plate approach that could carry over to 2021. Today, let’s review the hitters whose FBP% dropped the most versus 2019.

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Since 2015, pulled fly balls have left the park 33.1%, while the HR/FB rates of balls hit to the center of the park and opposite field sat at just 8.9% and 4.4%, respectively. Clearly, if a batter is trying to hit a home run, pulling his fly balls should give him the best chance. So knowing how important pulling fly balls is to hitting home runs, let’s review the fly ball pull percentage (FBP%) surgers versus 2019. I’ll discuss the interesting and fantasy relevant names.

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11/10/20

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A week ago, I reviewed the average fly ball distance laggards and discussed the surprising names. Today, let’s look at the decliners, those hitters who lost the most average fly ball distance (AFBD) versus 2019. There will likely be some overlap with the laggards list, so I won’t discuss the same names again. Once again, I’ll require a minimum of 10 Statcast fly balls to qualify for the list.

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A week ago, I reviewed the average fly ball distance leaders and discussed the surprising names. Today, let’s look at the surgers, those hitters who increased their average fly ball distance (AFBD) the most versus 2019. There will likely be some overlap with the leaders list, so I won’t discuss the same names again. Once again, I’ll require a minimum of 10 Statcast fly balls to qualify for the list.

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Introduction

Previously, I looked at the largest auction player bargains of 2020. These were the players who were highly profitable after considering their opportunity cost of acquisition. Value should always be considered relative to cost.

We defined the bargain amount as:

$Bargain = $Value – $AAV

We defined $Value as the accumulated 5×5 full season rotisserie value of each player, and $AAV as the average auction cost to purchase the player pre-season. We made use of the July NFBC Average Auction Values, which was one of the best sources of “market” data this year.

Whereas I previously looked at the players who generated the most excess value in 2020, today’s attention will be directed to what I refer to as the value drainers. These are the largest “rip-offs” of the season – i.e., the players who earned the most negative profits for fantasy owners on a full season basis (net of their auction price).

Prior to unveiling 2020’s most unprofitable players, it is important to discuss one additional step in the analysis – the capping of values. I have previously spoken about this concept, but I will touch on it again today.

Eduardo Rodriguez was a player that I drafted on a few of my fantasy rosters this season. His NFBC average auction value during July drafts (auctions) was $7. In Tout Wars, I acquired the Boston pitcher for $10. Unfortunately, Rodriguez came down with COVID-19. He developed heart complications due to the virus, and consequently did not pitch a single inning in 2020.

The question is – what value did Rodriguez accumulate in 2020? What damage did he cost to your team’s aggregate value? Owners certainly lost their original investment on him, but how much more were they penalized? He wouldn’t have made it to one’s active roster – but how much did it cost owners for Eduardo taking up a bench spot?

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