If you’ve followed my Tout Wars auctions and LABR in recent years, you would know that I can’t seem to quit Adalberto Mondesi. His tantalizing combination of speed and power make him a potential top 10 fantasy player. Unfortunately, health issues has ensured that has never happened. After being limited to just 54 plate appearances last year due to an ACL tear that required surgery, I thought this was finally the perfect opportunity to move on. Sadly for my auction budget and early round pick, Mondesi was traded to the Red Sox on Monday. Having not yet looked at the park factors, my knee-jerk reaction is that this is great for his fantasy value. Rather than speculate without the data, let’s actually compare the park factors of his old and new homes and find out if this move actually is a positive.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I identified and discussed the qualified hitters who most underperformed their Statcast xwOBA marks. Today, let’s review the overperformers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s start reviewing various 2022 metrics. Today, I’ll start by comparing a hitter’s wOBA to his Statcast xwOBA. If a projection system is directly weighing previous season surface results, rather than incorporating batted ball data, the forecast could be more pessimistic or optimistic than it should. This list of xwOBA underperformers could potentially beat their projections if only their 2022 surface results, and not the underlying data, are considered.

Read the rest of this entry »

In the final game of the 2021 regular season, Max Muncy injured his left elbow after a collision with Jace Peterson as Muncy tried to catch a throw while Peterson ran through first base. It cost Muncy all of the 2021 postseason and in November of 2021, we learned that Muncy’s injury was indeed the torn UCL that many feared it was when it happened. In January of 2022, we learned he wouldn’t need surgery, but there were concerns about how it might impact at least the start of his 2022 season.

While he made it through spring and was ready for Opening Day, it was clear early on that the elbow was still bothering him. He hit a brutal .136/.313/.273 in 83 April plate appearances and while it was reasonable to believe the .149 BABIP would regress back toward his career .256 mark, there was still trouble brewing. It wouldn’t get much better in the following months with a .595 OPS in May, .675 in June, and .597 in July, all with sub-.200 AVGs and just 9 HR in his 339 PA. With just a .150/.327/.263 line through May 25th, Muncy hit the IL. He didn’t want to blame his struggles on the elbow, but I mean… c’mon, it was the elbow. He did eventually acknowledge that he rushed back from the injury and should’ve taken some time.

Read the rest of this entry »

Nearly a month ago during the latter half of December, the Blue Jays traded prospect Gabriel Moreno and veteran Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for Daulton Varsho. While no longer a catcher, he still played 31 games at the position last year and will therefore maintain his premium eligibility. How will the move to a new home park impact his performance? Let’s consult the park factors.

Read the rest of this entry »

Back on Nov 16, the Mariners acquired Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays to beef up their offense. After spending the majority of his career with the Blue Jays, how might the move to a new home park affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors and find out.

Read the rest of this entry »

I ranked the top-200 non-catchers and top-50 catchers. Today, I rank hitters from 201 to 300. I don’t feel great about my ranking on the last 75 or so players. Small changes in playing time could push them up or down the rankings.

Notes:

• The rankings start with a weighted average of several available projections. From there, I moved hitters up or down based on my perceived playing time (PA) or talent (Talent)
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings.

Read the rest of this entry »

Just over a week ago, Jean Segura signed a two-year, $17 million contract with the Marlins, likely to serve as their regular third baseman. He missed two months last season due to a fractured finger, but heading into his age 33 season, he could still be an all-around fantasy contributor. Let’s see how his new park might affect his performance.

Read the rest of this entry »

It finally happened. After a career composed of 12 seasons spent with the San Francisco Giants, Brandon Belt has finally found a new home. On Monday, it was reported that the Blue Jays have agreed to a one-year, $9.3 million contract with Belt. For years, us fantasy owners have been dying to see what Belt could do if he ever left the home run suppressing Oracle Park. Unfortunately, it took until the season in which he’ll mostly be age 35. Still, after coming off another injury plagued season and the lowest wOBA of his career, will the park switch trigger a rebound? Let’s consult the park factors.

Read the rest of this entry »

After nine seasons with the Dodgers, Justin Turner signed a two-year contract with the Red Sox on Friday. Even during his age 37 season, Turner could still hit, so he should see the majority of the team’s DH PAs. How might his new park affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors.

Read the rest of this entry »