Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters who have most underperformed their xwOBA marks so far, which included a number of names that would make for good trade targets. Today, let’s flip over to the overperformers. I hesitate to make a blanket statement that these guys should be sold high if possible, as each deserves their own evaluation. So let’s dive in.
As everyone knows, the shift was banned for this season with players needing to be on the infield dirt and just two on each side of second base. I’m going to take an early glance to see if more hits are happening because of the extra holes in the infield and shallow outfield. Overall, the results ended up close to expectations but are noisy in some spots.
For the shift information, I’m using two rates, the full and strategic shift designations. For clarification, here is the explanation of the “strategic” shift from Baseball Savant.
A “strategic” shift is our current catch-all for positioning that is neither “standard,” nor “three infielders to one side of second base.” More granular categories, like “guarding the lines,” “five infielders,” etc., may be added in the future.
Examples of this often include just a single player being out of position, like a second baseman being shifted to short right while no other fielders are, as in the image above, or a shortstop moving very close to the second base bag, outside of the usual shortstop zone, but not quite moving to the other side of it.
During the offseason, I examined how the shift might affect individual players and the league-wide BABIP. For The Process, I looked at players moving from the full to the strategic shift. I used the strategic values since defenders could still move around this, just not as much as before. It was far from perfect, but I felt it was better than assuming no shift. Here are my conclusions from the book.
Jeff looked at into several solutions, including taking handedness into account, and ended up with the following formula to estimate a player’s change in BABIP:
BABIP Gained = Full Shift%^2 * 0.035
League-wide in 2022, 34% of all shifts were a full shift, so using the above formula, the league-wide BABIP is expected to jump by .004. On the whole, not that much.
And here are expected individual hitter BABIP gains for various full shift amounts.
| Full Shift% | BABIP Change |
|---|---|
| 90% | .028 |
| 80% | .022 |
| 70% | .017 |
| 60% | .013 |
| 50% | .009 |
| 40% | .006 |
| 30% | .003 |
| 20% | .001 |
| 10% | .000 |
| 0% | .000 |
On the league-wide value, I was off a bit with the league-wide value so far going from .243 to .249 or .006. Close.
As for the individual players, I bucketed the players into 10% point groups for anyone who hit in both 2022 and 2023. Then I found the Harmonic mean of the plate appearances to help weigh the yearly change. First, I bucketed just the full shift values.
| Full Shift% | BABIP Change | AVG Change | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 90% | .013 | .019 | 8 |
| 80% to 90% | .013 | .006 | 23 |
| 70% to 80% | .022 | .012 | 33 |
| 60% to 70% | .010 | .007 | 29 |
| 50% to 60% | -.004 | -.009 | 29 |
| 40% to 50% | -.016 | -.009 | 39 |
| 30% to 40% | .005 | -.010 | 27 |
| 20% to 30% | .014 | .018 | 37 |
| 10% to 20% | -.001 | .001 | 65 |
| <10% | .002 | -.001 | 111 |
| >65% | .017 | .009 | 81 |
The top and bottom 20% came out near expectations with decent jumps for the most shifted players and no change for those who weren’t shifted. Now in the middle, values bounced all over the place.
I wondered if those in the middle were being strategically shifted a bunch and adding those shift values might clean up the results. I reran the test with the full and strategic shift rates combined. Here are the results.
| Full and Strategic Shift | BABIP Change | AVG Change | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 90% | .019 | .022 | 21 |
| 80% to 90% | .018 | .006 | 43 |
| 70% to 80% | .006 | -.002 | 32 |
| 60% to 70% | -.008 | -.001 | 29 |
| 50% to 60% | -.027 | -.021 | 39 |
| 40% to 50% | .030 | .015 | 34 |
| 30% to 40% | .004 | .010 | 49 |
| 20% to 30% | .000 | .004 | 71 |
| <20% | .002 | -.002 | 83 |
| >65 | .014 | .007 | 114 |
The results stayed the same. The top and bottom 20% are nice and clean while the middle bounces around.
In both cases, I highlighted the results for those who see the particular shift two-thirds of the time. In each case, there was about a 15-point jump in BABIP and an ~8-point jump in AVG. The results so far match the preseason expectations and in a month or so, it will be time for another check-in.
We’re about two and a half weeks into the season, which means impatient fantasy owners are going to start cutting or selling low on their slow starting hitters. Before making such rash decisions, it pays to check out the hitter’s Statcast xMetrics. While the metrics have their flaws, it’s the best data we currently have to determine a hitter’s expected performance given their actual batted balls. So let’s review the hitters who have most underperformed their xwOBA marks. This could be your early trade target list if you don’t own these names, and if you do own them, perhaps it’s a reminder to hold strong.
Angels
• Gio Urshela (.756 OPS, 0 HR, 1 SB) has started in all but one game and has played six games at shortstop.
• Brandon Drury (.556 OPS) may only be starting against lefties. Read the rest of this entry »
With only around 7% of the season in the books, it’s still far too early to evaluate the majority of performance metrics. But we still want to analyze something, so let’s review the hitter SwStk% improvers versus last year. I chose SwStk% instead of strikeout rate, as the former has a 0.76 correlation with the latter from 2018 to 2022. There’s less noise in SwStk% than strikeout rate, so it’s a better skill metric to evaluate this early, rather than an outcome statistic. Remember, the sample sizes here are small and contact ability could fluctuate throughout the season. But hitters improve their strikeout rates all the time, which could lead to a breakout given the additional balls in play. Cutting down on swings and misses could be an early sign that such improvement will either continue or occur soon.
Usually, the larger the sample size the better when evaluating a metric. However, that’s not necessarily the case when looking at maxEV, Statcast’s peak exit velocity reading for a particular hitter. While you wouldn’t want to ding a hitter whose maxEV has declined versus last year after just a week and a half of games, you do want to celebrate a hitter who has already increased their maxEV after such a small sample of balls in play. You can’t really fake hitting the ball harder, so it’s possible that an increased maxEV is an early sign of a power spike. Let’s review the maxEV increasers and see if we can find any interesting names.
Angels
• Jake Lamb (.561 OPS) is playing first base against righties.
• Gio Urshela has started in five of six with two games at shortstop.
Astros
• David Hensley (Util-only) has started five of seven with three games at second so far. Mauricio Dubón is getting the other starts at second base.
• Two outfield spots are still are being split between Chas McCormick (1.016 OPS), Corey Julks (.668 OPS), and Jake Meyers (.473 OPS).
Athletics
• Seth Brown didn’t get platooned against the two lefties.
• Ryan Noda has started three straight at first base. He might be on the strong side of a platoon with Brent Rooker.
• Jace Peterson might be on the strong side of a platoon with Nick Allen on the weak side.
Blue Jays
• There looks to be some platoons forming with Brandon Belt and Cavan Biggio only facing righties.
• Kevin Kiermaier (5 starts in seven games), Whit Merrifield (5), and Santiago Espinal (2) don’t seem to have full-time roles.
Guardians
• Gabriel Arias has started in three of the last four games, all against a lefty starter.
Mariners
• Kolten Wong (vs RHP) and Sam Haggerty (vs LHP) seem to be in a second base platoon.
• Jarred Kelenic sat against both lefty starters.
Orioles
• Adam Frazier (1.127 OPS) has started in five of the last six games.
• Ramón Urías has only started in three of six games.
Rangers
• Josh Smith (.875 OPS), Brad Miller (.857 OPS), and Ezequiel Duran (.333 OPS) are splitting time between two lineup spots.
Rays
• A mess as normal.
• Isaac Paredes (vs LHP) and Taylor Walls (vs RHP) appear to be in a third base platoon.
Red Sox
• They’ve only faced one lefty and Rob Refsnyder played instead of Triston Casas.
Royals
• It’s Rays-like with a new lineups everyday, but with worse hitters.
Tigers
• Matt Vierling (1 HR, 1 SB, .885 OPS) is leading off against lefties and has sat only once.
• Nick Maton (vs RHP) and Jonathan Schoop (vs LHP) seem to be in a third base platoon.
• Ryan Kreidler (6 K in 13 PA) has started three straight games.
Twins
• Michael A. Taylor has starter every game as the centerfielder while batting ninth.
• Trevor Larnach has started every game.
White Sox
• With Eloy Jiménez out, it’s not obvious who will take his place with the candidates being Jake Burger, Romy Gonzalez, and Gavin Sheets.
Yankees
• One and a half (Stanton) outfield spots is being shared by Franchy Cordero (.556 OPS), Oswaldo Cabrera (.646 OPS), and Aaron Hicks (.125 OPS).
Braves
• Travis d’Arnaud (.806 OPS) has started every game (four as DH).
• Eddie Rosario has only started against righties while Kevin Pillar and Marcell Ozuna have started against lefties.
Brewers
• Luke Voit, Owen Miller, and Mike Brosseau (leading off) have only started against lefties. Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang have sat against both lefties they faced.
• Joey Wiemer (1.009 OPS) had started five straight.
Cardinals
• With Lars Nootbaar out, Alec Burleson (.938) has started in five of the last six games. He sat against the one lefty.
• Brendan Donovan sat against the one lefty with Tommy Edman then hitting leadoff.
Cubs
• Eric Hosmer (.706 OPS) has started in four of the five games.
Diamondbacks
• Josh Rojas (vs RHP) and Evan Longoria (vs LHP) are in a third base platoon.
• Alek Thomas (vs RHP) and Kyle Lewis (vs LHP) are in a platoon.
Dodgers
• Mookie Betts has three games so far at second base.
• Some nagging injuries (i.e. Vargas and Rojas) has mixed things up that last few days.
Giants
• They haven’t faced any lefty starters so the potential platoons aren’t obvious.
• Catcher-qualified Blake Sabol (.722 OPS) has started every game.
• Wilmer Flores has only started in two games so far.
Marlins
• Jon Berti has has started three straight at short with Joey Wendle on the IL.
• Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez are splitting one outfield spot. It doesn’t seem to be a handedness platoon.
Mets
• Tommy Pham (vs LHP) and Daniel Vogelbach (vs RHP) seem to be in a platoon.
• Luis Guillorme (vs RHP) and Eduardo Escobar (vs LHP) are in a third base platoon.
Nationals
• Keep an eye on Alex Call, he might be on the short side of a platoon (Note: He is in Friday’s lineup versus a righty).
Padres
• David Dahl (.556 OPS), Rougned Odor (.422), and José Azocar (.844) are splitting time with one outfield spot.
• Nelson Cruz has only started twice, both times against a lefty.
Phillies
• Looks like Jake Cave (vs RHP) and Edmundo Sosa (vs LHP) are in a platoon.
Pirates
• Several guys are playing enough to be relevant (Suwinski, Smith-Njigba, Joe, Choi) but Ji Hwan Bae (1 HR, 2 SB, .708 OPS) has started five of six with three games at second base.
Reds
• Kevin Newman (.600 OPS) and Jose Barrero (.250 OPS) are sharing time at short. I’m not sure it’s a platoon.
Rockies
• Since joining the team, Jurickson Profar has leadoff every game.
Angels
• Gio Urshela got the start at short with David Fletcher on the bench.
• Brandon Drury played first base with Jared Walsh on the IL.
Astros
• Mauricio Dubón started at second base with David Hensley as the DH.
• Jake Meyers started in center instead of Chas McCormick. Read the rest of this entry »
I always get excited when a hitter either signs with or gets traded to the Rockies. The latest such transaction occurred on Sunday when Jurickson Profar signed a one-year contract with the team. He’s expected to serve as the team’s starting left fielder and we have him slotted into the leadoff spot. Does the move suddenly make him worthy of rostering in shallower mixed leagues? Let’s consult the park factors.
Let’s return without delay to the second half of our exploration of the Quadrinity: players who satisfy certain statistical criteria and, we have found, do better in the aggregate than the market thinks they will. Last week, we looked at pitchers, who were the species on which this experiment was first conducted. But we have found over the years that it works well with hitters, too. We are, as you might imagine, looking for hitters whose achievement is the opposite of that of the qualifying pitchers: guys whose walk percentage and hard-hit percentage are above-average, while their strikeout percentage and soft-hit percentage are below-average.
There are usually about twenty such guys. This year, there’s a bumper crop of 26, although one of them, Brendan Rodgers, blew out his shoulder earlier this month and is likely out for the season. So let’s wish Rodgers a speedy recovery and name the other twenty-five, divided according to position, along with their average auction prices in auctions conducted under the auspices of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. One of the oddities of the Hitter Quadrinity is that we’re usually able to construct a full 14-man Roto roster from among them—as we would have been this year as well, but for Rodgers’s misfortune : Read the rest of this entry »
