Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters whose FB% marks had changed the most compared to last year. We care about FB% because it directly impacts home runs. All else being equal, the greater the FB%, the higher the home run total. Similarly, pulled fly balls travel over the fence with significantly greater frequency than those hit straightaway or to the opposite field. So it stands to reason that an increased fly ball pull rate would raise a hitter’s HR/FB rate, while the opposite would be true.

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A hitter’s fly ball rate is important to track because the vast majority of home runs are hit via that batted ball type. In fact, according to Statcast’s batted ball type buckets, there have been 10 times more home runs hit on fly balls than on line drives since 2022. So let’s find out which hitters have seen their FB% marks change the most compared to last year, which could explain a jump or dip in home run totals, compared to expectations at this point in the season.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the starting pitchers whose SwStk% has changed most over the last 30 days compared to earlier in the season. Now let’s flip over to the hitters. Today, we’ll review Barrel% changes over the last 30 days, which should explain a power surge or decline over that time period.

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We’re getting close to 50% completion of the 2024 season, so I thought the time was right for a midseason update to my projections-based prospect ranks. You can find more methodological detail, along with the preseason lists here (bats) and here (arms).

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Note: I spent about two minutes looking over each team and writing notes. I’m sure I missed some things but something is better than nothing.

American League

Angels

• Kevin Pillar is starting against righties (three straight) while batting between third and fifth.

• Michael Stefanic has started in four of the last five games, two while leading off.

Astros

• With José Abreu gone, the first base job is up for grabs. It might be a platoon with Jon Singleton facing righties and Mauricio Dubón facing lefties.

Athletics

• Tyler Soderstrom has moved up to hitting third or fourth with nine straight starts.

Blue Jays

• It’s turned into a mess with Davis Schneider only starting in three of the last five games. Also, Ernie Clement has started two straight at third base.

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has started in 25 straight games.

Guardians

• Kyle Manzardo has only started in five of the last ten games.

• Tyler Freeman is sitting more having started in only five of the last seven.

• Since being promoted, Daniel Schneemann has started in six of nine games.

Mariners

• Ryan Bliss (.500 OPS) has started nine straight at second base.

• Tyler Locklear has started in five of the last six games at first base. Ty France should be off the IL soon.

Orioles

• Austin Hays (vs LHP) and Colton Cowser (vs RHP) are in a left field platoon.

• Since returning from the IL, Jorge Mateo has started in four straight games.

Rangers

• Since coming off the IL, Wyatt Langford has started in 14 of 15 games and moved to hitting fifth. Since returning, he’s hitting .289/.327/.404 with 0 HR and 4 SB.

Rays

• Just a mess.

• The only player who seems to be getting more playing time is Jose Siri (five straight starts against lefties and righties). In June, he is posting a .781 OPS with a 37% K%.

Red Sox

• David Hamilton with six straight starts at shortstop.

• Masataka Yoshida is off the IL and batting fifth.

• Enmanuel Valdez (vs RHP) and Jamie Westbrook (vs LHP) are in a second base platoon.

Royals

• The bottom of the lineup is a mess with no one worth targeting besides maybe Freddy Fermin in deeper two-catcher leagues.

Tigers

• Colt Keith (vs RHP) and Andy Ibáñez (vs LHP) remain in a second base platoon.

• Ryan Kreidler has started in three of the last four games at shortstop with Javier Báez on the IL.

Twins

• While the normal platoons exist, the first base/third base/DH situation has cleared up with Alex Kirilloff getting demoted.

White Sox

• I’m unsure of the outfield with Tommy Pham and Andrew Benintendi coming off the IL.

• Lenyn Sosa (.590 OPS, 1 HR, 2 SB) has started 12 of 13 games at third base.

Yankees

• DJ LeMahieu and Oswaldo Cabrera are splitting time at third base rendering both useless in fantasy.

• Giancarlo Stanton is still only DHing and has sat some with Judge and Soto at the DH.

National League

Braves

• Steady but the outfield will be strained even more with Michael Harris II headed to the IL.

Brewers

• Jackson Chourio with six straight starts.

• The team has three different third basemen over the last three games (Joey Ortiz, Andruw Monasterio, and Oliver Dunn).

Cardinals

• Pedro Pagés (.481 OPS) with four starts at catcher in the last five games.

Cubs

• Nothing actionable.

Diamondbacks

• Geraldo Perdomo is off the IL and started in three of the last four games at shortstop while batting ninth.

Dodgers

• No changes.

Giants

• Heliot Ramos is now batting second.

Marlins

• Tim Anderson off the IL and playing shortstop.

Mets

• Tyrone Taylor (.649 OPS, 2 HR, 6 SB) is sneaking back into the outfield picture with four starts in the last seven games.

Nationals

• Joey Meneses with three straight starts at first base with Joey Gallo on the IL.

Padres

• No changes.

Phillies

• With J.T. Realmuto on the IL, Nick Castellanos is now hitting second with Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs splitting the catcher duties.

• David Dahl has started in four straight games but his playing time may end with Brandon Marsh about to come off the IL.

Pirates

• No major changes.

Reds

• No change with left and right field still in platoons.

Rockies

• Nolan Jones is off the IL and batting fifth.

• Adael Amador (.333 OPS) has started five straight and is batting ninth.

With two prominent players, Mike Trout and J.T. Realmuto, just needing meniscus surgery, I examined hitter production before and after surgery. With a limited sample, some struggles should be expected. Read the rest of this entry »

Sometimes the scouting report on a player is so straightforward that it doesn’t require a full sentence:

Javier Báez: Throw outside zone.

Among players with at least 150 plate appearances in 2024, only Bryce Harper is thrown to in the zone by pitchers less often than Báez. Here’s a top 10 leaderboard: Read the rest of this entry »

Statcast has enough toys to keep us nerds busy for months going down rabbit holes and digging into various metrics and numbers galore. One of the expected metrics I’ve rarely used and haven’t reach much about is xHR. It’s exactly what it sounds like, Statcast’s equation that calculates an “expected” home run total.

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It’s been just over a month since I last reviewed the hitters that had most underperformed and overperformed their xwOBA marks. I’m not going to review how they have performed since, as the idea is for rest of season production, not just the next month.

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Yesterday, I dove into the new Statcast bat tracking metrics to learn whether the metrics are any better at predicting HR/FB rate than what we already have, namely Barrel%. Sadly, the answer was no. However, that doesn’t mean these new metrics are useless, of course. As we collect more and more data and sample size issues go away, we’ll be able to investigate more with significantly greater confidence in the results.

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