Archive for Hitters

As a projectionist, it’s always fun when players switch teams. It doubles the challenge, as not only do I need to account for standards such as aging and regression in my forecast, but now I have to consider the effects of a switch in home parks. When Khris Davis was traded to the Athletics before this season, I immediately projected a dip in offensive performance, unadjusted for park. That was a normal reaction. Just check out the park factors! Below is a breakdown of just those park factors the two parks sharply differed in.

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At last, we come to our final outfielder Steamer and I review. Today, I’ll recap my Steamer and I battle over Michael Conforto, which pit my Pod Projection against the Steamer projection system. I was surprised to learn that I was significantly more bullish on Conforto than Steamer was, as I felt he was actually overvalued in fantasy leagues, though mostly due to his expected lineup slot toward the bottom of the Mets order. Let’s see what we expected versus what actually transpired.

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Onward and forward we move with the Steamer and I series recaps, pitting my Pod Projection against Steamer! Today, I’ll review how we forecasted Yoenis Cespedes. Unlike Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig who I previously recapped, I was actually significantly more bullish than Steamer on Cespedes. Let’s find out exactly what each system was projecting versus how Cespedes actually fared.

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Let’s continue with the outfielder Steamer and I reviews by checking in on an amusing player — Yasiel Puig. I was significantly more bearish on Puig than Steamer was, and while we know now that Puig has continued his offensive slide, let’s dive into exactly what we expected versus how he actually performed.

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Today, I start my reviews of my Steamer and I series that happened to cover mainly outfielders (not by design). The series compared my Pod Projection to the Steamer projection, as I discussed the players I was either significantly more bullish or bearish on compared to the system. We start with Mike Trout, who I was far more bearish on than Steamer. It was an interesting exercise for me since I had no idea I was in that position to begin with. Diving it to determine why was an enlightening activity.

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It’s outfield week! Let’s begin by recapping how my rankings compared to the consensus by reviewing my outfield Pod’s Picks and Pans.

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Man, no one saw this coming. Didi Gregorius ended up finishing 11th in fantasy value this year, actually making him worthy of a starting shortstop slot in shallow mixed leagues! We certainly didn’t expect this. Our preseason rankings valued him as just the 22nd best shortstop, and the most bullish ranking had him at 16th. Although he only improved marginally on the offensive side from a real baseball perspective, he made enough small gains to push himself into fantasy asset territory.

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I was bearish on Addison Russell heading into the 2016 season. It had far more to do with his likely placement in the Cubs’ batting order than his actual performance expectations. Because he recorded all his plate appearances from the bottom half of the order, he amassed just 598 of them, despite remaining healthy all season and missing nary a game due to injury. That hurt his counting stats, though aside from his mediocre runs scored total, were still fairly strong from a fantasy contribution perspective. They could have been better, of course. A spot in the bottom half of the lineup had something to do with his rank of just 16 in fantasy earnings among shortstops (17 if you include Jean Segura). So although his home run total jumped from 13 to 21 and ISO spiked from .147 to .179, he was still a disappointment to fantasy owners.

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Corey Seager recorded just 113 MLB plate appearances in 2015, but he made a big splash with his performance and the lack of a track record didn’t stop the RotoGraphs ranking crew from placing him fifth among shortstop in the preseason. I was even more bullish, as my projections valued him as the second best shortstop! Seager ultimately finished fourth according to our end of season dollar values (fifth if including Jean Segura), but that probably undersells him, as he was just as good as hoped for.

Let’s recap my 2016 Pod Projection and see how my forecasts compared to his actual results.

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For some reason, I never published a Pod’s Picks and Pans for third base. Perhaps to save myself some extra embarrassment? These haven’t exactly gone so well this year. Putting myself back in the face of potential ridicule, let’s take a look back at my Pod’s Picks & Pans at shortstop. Yesterday, we published the shortstop rankings and dollar values, which the actual rankings are taken from.

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