Khris Davis Doesn’t Care for Park Factors

As a projectionist, it’s always fun when players switch teams. It doubles the challenge, as not only do I need to account for standards such as aging and regression in my forecast, but now I have to consider the effects of a switch in home parks. When Khris Davis was traded to the Athletics before this season, I immediately projected a dip in offensive performance, unadjusted for park. That was a normal reaction. Just check out the park factors! Below is a breakdown of just those park factors the two parks sharply differed in.

So let’s dive into the numbers before discussing Davis specifically. Miller Park (Milwaukee) suppresses singles by 6%, versus Oakland Coliseum, which is exactly league average. This factor greatly influences BABIP since singles are typically the most frequent hit type. On the other hand, Miller Park is a triples haven, inflating totals by 18%. Oakland is the opposite, reducing triples totals by 8%. As you suspected, the biggest difference comes in the home run category. Miller Park is one of the best home run parks in baseball, inflating right-handed long balls by 20%. Oakland is on the opposite end of the spectrum, hampering home run totals by 10%. We don’t typically think of strikeout and walk rates being affected by the park, but they are. Whether it’s the hitter’s background, the weather, or distracting aliens in the distance, Miller Park slightly increases strikeouts, while Oakland Coliseum limits them. Last, for whatever reason (the aliens again?!), Miller Park reduces the frequency of pop-ups, while Oakland Coliseum increases them by a whopping 16%. All in all, those extra triples and homers in Miller Park result in a serious hitter’s park, inflating offense by 6%, versus Oakland Coliseum that deflates offense by 8%.

Now let’s see what Davis has done during his home games in Milwaukee throughout his career versus how he performed at home in his first season in Oakland.

Davis looked at those park factors and laughed his way to 42 homers and the 13th most valuable fantasy season among outfielders. Remember that for AB/1B and AB/3B, the lower the number, the better. A move away from singles-deflating Milwaukee should have helped his singles total, but he actually lost some singles. For someone with below average speed, a move away from triples friendly Miller Park should have killed his triples total, but his rate stayed exactly the same. Leaving the home run friendly confines of Miller Park to a home run suppressing environment in Oakland should be seriously dented his HR/FB rate, but instead it ended up virtually identical. Moving from a pop-up reducing Miller Park to a pop-up inflating Oakland Coliseum should have increased his IFFB% substantially, but instead it only jumped marginally.

So essentially, everything we expected to happen given the change in home venue did not actually happen. It’s just a reminder that park factors are just an average and not only will not every player be affected the same way and to the same degree, but we’re also dealing with a small sample size of on season’s worth of home at-bats. If we know that 265 at-bats of a season is still considered a small sample to draw real meaningful conclusions from, then certainly 265 home at-bats over a full season is also a small sample that might not necessarily conform to the park factors.

Overall, Davis’ HR/FB rate actually increased to its highest mark since his 2013 debut. Let’s check his Statcast metrics from 2015 to 2016:

Both metrics already sat in elite territory toward the top of the leaderboards, but Davis boosted each even higher in 2016. That’s one way to avoid the park factors — hit it so hard that it clears any fence, regardless of park. He also hits lots of fly balls, as his FB% has sat just above 40% the last two seasons, so he has been able to take full advantage of his ability to push those fly balls over the wall.

Strikeouts continue to remain an issue and his SwStk% has actually increased each year since his 2013 debut. But he’s not just flailing away, although his Swing% did jump in 2016. His O-Swing% remains around the league average, he just has trouble making contact with the baseball. I’m actually surprised that his walk rate isn’t higher given that he swings and misses so often to extend the at-bat. Amazingly, he has only been intentionally walked once in his career, despite carrying a .256 ISO and .349 wOBA. I’d bet a lot that he sets a new career high in intentional walks next season, which is going to boost his walk rate and perhaps add a couple of runs scored to his ledger.

Although it’s always difficult for me to project a repeat of a mid-20% HR/FB rate, there really is nothing here that screams fluke. He even seems to have some BABIP upside given a low .270 mark in 2016, despite a low IFFB%. The 10 home run decline that Steamer is projecting seems a bit harsh, as I would imagine my forecast will be in the mid-30s, but everything else looks reasonable. A couple of extra homers would also increase his batting average and push him above .250 for the first time since 2013.