No, your computer screen hasn’t frozen from several weeks ago, nor is FanGraphs on repeat. Instead, I’m double dipping, reiterating two recommendations I have made over the past month.
I only have one recommendation for you today, folks. I’d love to write a second but sometimes it’s best not to force the issue. Not that there aren’t worthy players out there to consider. But sometimes, what’s out there just isn’t all that compelling and just because you can make an argument in favor of something doesn’t always mean you should. I’m talking to you, Jim Cramer. So without further ado, let’s talk a little Mac Williamson (1% Yahoo, 1.1%ESPN, 3% CBS).
Yesterday, I calculated every qualified hitters’ xBABIP and compared it to each of their BABIP marks to determine which hitters have most underperformed. Today will bring a look at the opposite side of the coin — those hitters whose BABIP marks most exceed their xBABIP marks. These aren’t necessarily sell high candidates, but you figure their batting averages should decline, perhaps significantly, the rest of the way.
It’s the All Star Break already! My, has time gone by quickly. So let’s check in on xBABIP, Alex Chamberlain’s version, and begin by identifying those hitters who might enjoy a batting average surge over the second half. I have included all the components of the equation in the table so we could discuss what’s driving the xBABIP.
It’s your favorite time of the week, the moment we dive into the deep depths of the ominous free agent pool. Who will we find?! Will we discover hidden treasure?!
Small sample sizes be damned! OK, not really. But today we take a look at two players who, in very limited playing time, have made us (or should make us) look twice and dig just a little deeper. Read the rest of this entry »
It took me until Saturday’s two-homer game to realize that OMG, Danny Espinosa has gone bonkers. It took him until April 29th to hit his first home run of the season. He then hit five in May, nine in June, and already has three in July. Danny Espinosa. He of the career high of 21 home runs set all the way back in 2011, his first full season, in more than double the plate appearances. He who we expected, nay, knew, was just a temporary placeholder for top prospect Trea Turner, who was surely going to be up with the big club early in the season and push Espinosa to a bench role.
It’s time for an updated list of potential HR/FB rate decliners! As usual, I scanned the batted ball distance leaderboard, matched each hitter with his HR/FB rate, and identified those hitters whose distance suggests major HR/FB rate downside. Yesterday, I looked at the potential surgers.
As a reminder, please be aware that the other two components of my xHR/FB rate equation are missing from this analysis. So to avoid giving wrong advice, I have stayed away from discussing the hitters in the middle of the distance ranking. Also remember that this ignores park effects, which certainly plays a role.
It’s time for an updated list of potential HR/FB rate surgers! As usual, I scanned the batted ball distance leaderboard, matched each hitter with his HR/FB rate, and identified those hitters whose distance suggests major HR/FB rate upside.
Please be aware that the other two components of my xHR/FB rate equation are missing from this analysis. So to avoid giving wrong advice, it’s why I have stayed away from discussing the hitters in the middle of the distance ranking. Also remember that this ignores park effects, which certainly plays a role.
