Nearly a year ago, I introduced the newest version of my xHR/FB rate, this time using the new Statcast metric, Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE). Along with Brls/BBE, I included two additional components — pulled and opposite field fly ball percentage, which I just lumped together for the second factor in the equation (oh, and also a park factor adjustment).
Quite a bit has been written about batted ball data the past few seasons since the information has become publicly available. Fantasy owners have taken notice and are trying to find that next hitter who is raising his launch angle to be part of the “Flyball Revolution”. One major issue which is not being publicly discussed is the major effects backspin has on the ball. By knowing a hit’s spin rate, some of the anomalies seen between launch angle and exit velocity can be explained. The spin rate is a major batted ball component but is generally an unknown factor.
The importance of batted ball spin comes down to this simple table and explanation by Dr. Alan Nathan in a piece he wrote at the Hardball Times.
Finally, I want to take advantage of the fact that we have an aerodynamic model that accounts for most of the features of the data to investigate how flyball distance depends on the amount of backspin, here for a fixed exit speed of 103 mph and launch angle of 27 degrees. The results are given in the table below. They show that distance increases rapidly as the backspin increases from zero but eventually saturates, with very little gain in distance for spin rates exceeding about 1,500 rpm. The reason for the saturation is partly because air drag increases with increasing spin, essentially canceling the increase in lift.
Same launch angle. Same exit velocity. And the ball travels an additional 64 feet of distance because of backspin. Simply, how is a factor which can add an additional 60+ feet in travel distance not be part of our analysis?
It’s time to unveil the list of 10 fantasy relevant hitters whose 2017 xHR/FB rates most exceeded their actual HR/FB rate marks. I use my Statcast-fueled xHR/FB rate equation to determine which hitters could enjoy a spike in HR/FB rate in 2018. Of course, this all assumes the hitter posts similar marks in the components of the xHR/FB rate metric — Brls/BBE, along with fly ball pull and opposite field percentages. All xHR/FB rates are the park-adjusted versions.
This list isn’t necessarily a sleeper list, unless your leaguemates are expecting a 2018 HR/FB rate like 2017 for the player. Rather, it’s simply a list of hitters with a better than average chance of enjoying an increase in HR/FB rate.
Let’s shift back to the bottom of the Statcast leaderboard and discuss seven names you might be surprised to find down there. The surprise won’t be driven by a bunch of guys who just posted 20% HR/FB rates yet don’t have the barrels to explain such results, but rather one of “whoa, his power really did dry up in 2017, what happened?!”.
In 2017, league average Brls/BBE was 6.4%, while the median mark was 5.3%. The median is much lower because it includes the many hitters who recorded few plate appearances and batted ball events, a group which likely posted lower Brls/BBE marks. After all, more power equals more playing time, all else being equal. The average is weighted and so the 437 batted ball events from Giancarlo Stanton, who posted a 17.4% Brls/BBE is going to pull up that mark, but ends up counting the same as the 16 batted ball events from Brett Eibner, who posted a slightly better 18.8% Brls/BBE.
Let’s continue diving into the Statcast leaderboard, sticking with my favorite metric, Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event). While it’s no surprise to find Aaron Judge atop the leaderboard, followed by Joey Gallo, and J.D. Martinez, there are other names that do surprise and provide actionable information. So let’s peruse the top 50 hitters (there are 540 players on the list, including pitchers, as the board simply includes everyone with at least 30 batted ball events) sorted by Brls/BBE and discuss six legit sleepers for home runs in 2018.
Yesterday, I shared 19 hitters whose Brls/BBE marks spiked from 2016 to 2017. A surge in this metric usually coincides with a jump in HR/FB rate, and sure enough, 18 of the 19 batters did enjoy an increase. Now let’s check in on the hitters who suffered a decline in their Brls/BBE marks. We shall assume that each of their HR/FB rates also declined. Was this actually the case?
Towards the end of 2016, one of the most exciting new metrics was introduced using Statcast data — Barrels, which are “well-struck ball[s] where the combination of exit velocity and launch angle generally leads to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage”. But counting stats aren’t exactly the best when evaluating performance, as playing time factors in, and we don’t want that. Luckily, Baseball Savant also provides us with a “batted ball event (BBE)” number, and then generously does the math for us, calculating a Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE), which I then use for my analysis. Given that Brls/BBE is a pure measure of power, it stands to reason that we want to see our favorite power surgers enjoy major growth in the metric from one year to the next, in order to validate that increased output. So let’s check in on the Brls/BBE surgers from 2016 to 2017.
“… pros were more likely to ride a wave of irrational exuberance than to fight it. One reason is that it is risky to be a contrarian. ‘Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally’” – Richard Thaler in Misbehaving
At the root level, fantasy baseball is about acquiring more undervalued assists than your opponents. Everyone wants a first-round talent for a last round price (e.g. Aaron Judge). With teams clamoring to acquire every advantage, they are insistent on wasting away an early draft advantage. In early 2018 drafts I’ve participated in, an early emphasis on middle infielders is inflating their value way beyond their projected production. Is the observation wrong? If so why? If not, how can an owner take advantage of this mispricing?
Note: For this article, I will lump second basemen and shortstops together into one middle infield position. Neither position has more talent than the other and the bottom players will be used to fill a middle infield position.
For those who have recently created mixed-league valuations, positional scarcity doesn’t exist besides with catcher. I use the method outlined in Larry Schechter’s book, Winning Fantasy Baseball to determine my values. I’m not going to go into the process’s exact details but it’s the standard procedure used by fantasy experts to prep for auctions. Even a couple years ago a small amount of positional scarcity existed but a huge influx of good middle infielders has raised the group’s overall talent level up to the other positions.
Last week, the Athletics traded for Stephen Piscotty, alleviating a bit of the great depth in the Cardinals outfield. Piscotty is coming off a forgettable offensive performance, in which he dealt with injuries, a minor league demotion, and the terrible news that his mother was diagnosed with ALS. Typically, the knee-jerk reaction is a move to Oakland will likely hamper a hitter’s offensive results. But surprisingly, this appears to be one of those rare instances in which the park switch may actually provide a boost. Let’s dive in.
So the Angels are apparently going for it all, eh? First, they signed Shohei Otani, then traded for Ian Kinsler, and have now signed Zack Cozart, who figures to play third base with defensive stud Andrelton Simmons entrenched at shortstop. Moving out of the perceived hitter friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and into an environment perceived to be far more favorable for pitchers, let’s find out how the relevant park factors may impact Cozart’s performance.
