Episode 189

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Eno Sarris and Paul Sporer talk about the news topics which include notes on: Mike Moustakas, Brandon Belt, Lucas Duda, Desmond Jennings, John Axford, and Casey Janssen.

Then we jump into our divisional previews, starting with the AL East where we get to Baltimore and Boston today with New York, Tampa Bay, and Toronto on deck for Thursday. We each discuss a hitter and pitcher that we’re interested in from those ballclubs at their current draft costs.

RG work relevant to today’s podcast:

• Podhorzer on Moustakas
• Spratt on Belt
• Minnix on Jennings
• Sarris on the Red Sox OF

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us (click our names above) or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller, aka Teen Archer, for the intro/outro music. Approximately 102 minutes of joyous analysis.

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

Looking for offense? Join the rest of Mets nation, whose hopes for a productive lineup rely largely on two aging corner outfielders and a glove-heavy center fielder. That said, all of the three options here have clear full-time jobs — well, heh, assuming they stay healthy — and they all have the potential to contribute in standard mixed leagues, even if they probably shouldn’t be drafted with such expectations.

First, a quick word about Citi Field. Last year, the park favored pitchers slightly overall, though it was found to increase home runs a tad, particularly for right-handed hitters. We’ll see how the Mets’ decision to move in the fences, yet again, bodes for offense, but suffice to say, the ballpark shouldn’t be viewed as a major impediment to run production.
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• Troy Tulowitzki has been dealing with a labrum tear since 2008 in which he finally had surgery for at the end of 2014.

But for years, Tulowitzki and the Rockies knew that his hip labrum was damaged. The area has been a problem since he suffered a torn left quadriceps tendon early in 2008. He had surgery to remove scar tissue from the left groin area in 2012, but he hoped to continue to play through the underlying labrum damage.

Did the surgery finally put an end to the problems?

Not even Tulowitzki knows.

“It’s been a battle for me, no doubt,” Tulowitzki said. “I do everything I possibly can to prepare for the season and make myself healthy. Hopefully, all these things are past me. I can move on and go out there and play 140, 160, however many games it is, I love to do that. I have every intention to. We’ll see how it goes.”

I guess we can finally see if he can stay healthy for an entire season.

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Baltimore Orioles offer fantasy owners an array of usable infield options, with one of baseball’s best upside bets at third, a veritable mixed league shortstop, a three-time all-star behind the dish and a true bopper at first base. And that’s before you factor in a home ballpark that’s known for boosting offense. What’s not to like?
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Episode 188

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live! It’s tough to let go, so this one runs a little long.

In this episode, Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other players in the news, Glen Perkins, Devin Mesoraco, Michael Bourn, Mike Napoli, Travis Snider, and Anthony Ranaudo.

Requested topics discussed: Marcus Semien, Brock Holt, and Mike Fiers; keeper question about Cueto/Harvey/Betts/Dickerson, Wright/Alcantara/Pederson/Benoit, and Altuve/Braun/Han-Ram/Scherzer; and general questions about depth by position for a 15-team league, replacement level with bench players included, and the portions of your budget to allocate to hitting and pitching.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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Steamer and I are good friends. It’s true – even though I don’t know Steamer’s gender, Steamer isn’t upset. We don’t always agree – often, we disagree – but that’s part of what keeps the fire alive.

Yesterday, I wrote about a couple of players whom I like more than the crowd does and, because of injuries, a lot or a little more than Steamer does. Brett Talley has blogged this month about some sleepers and busts derived from values calculated based on Steamer projections, and one of those entries is on sleeper position players, kind of an All-Sleeper Team.

To build on those things a little, and to focus on the good times Steamer and I have had, I cherry-picked from my spreadsheet of values some other position players whom Steamer projections suggest are sleepers or undervalued compared to early ADPs. I’d like them like quite a bit at their prices and would highlight them as probable targets.

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Steamer isn’t entirely to blame. I doubt he hurt them on purpose. I’m sure he’s a nice guy. He’s smart. He knows a lot about buckets of baseball players and learns more about them every year. I apologize, in fact, because I shouldn’t assume that Steamer is male. Based on Steamer’s intelligence and propensity to learn, it’s likelier to be a dudette.

Steamer projections are good and can save you a ton of time. What they can’t be is perfect, or even close to it. That’s good, because if they or other projections systems could be, then fantasy baseball leagues would probably be very boring. As a result, though, especially if you use Steamer projections for your rankings, you have to figure out which players about whom Steamer isn’t closer to 100% informed.

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The Steroids Era has passed, and with that comes a return to the laws of physicality: when you approach your mid-to-late 30s, your athletic productivity takes a sharp downturn. Need any proof? Last year, just 13 players in their age-37 season or above notched 200 or more plate appearances. Among them were the now-retired Derek Jeter, Paul Konerko and Alfonso Soriano, as well as part-time players like Reed Johnson, Jose Molina and Ichiro Suzuki. Of this bunch, only two — David Ortiz and Torii Hunter — posted positive WAR figures and were above average offensively.

Assuming for the moment that some Faustian agreement doesn’t produce a Joe Boyd-like debut this year, here are five players, 37 years and older, who could snag enough playing time to surface on the radars of standard leagues this year — unless, of course, Father Time catches up with them first.
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Over the last couple of weeks a few of my fellow writers here are FanGraphs have been going over some draft strategies. This week, I am going to step through my exact process for a draft. On Thursday night, I will be joining a few fantasy writers for a 15 team mock draft. Over the next few days, I will go through the exact process I normally use to set up for a draft. If one of the other drafters steals borrows my info, fine. This is actually more a way to show you my process for drafts.

First off, I will be following the procedure I set out last season in this three part series. There is quite a few good links in those articles for the procedures I use.

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Episode 187

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Jason Collette and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other players in the news, Sean Doolittle, Jered Weaver, Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder, Dustin Pedroia, Taijuan Walker, Javier Baez, Jose Fernandez, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, and Joey Votto.

Requested topics discussed: a keeper quandary involving several players, including Trevor Rosenthal, Jimmy Rollins, and Trevor Plouffe; Logan Morrison’s Steamer projection, particularly its forecast of 20 HR; and Jason’s boyfriend, Homer Bailey and the pitcher’s pre-injury trajectory and outlook.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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