After his first nine Major League starts, Luis Severino has somehow failed to excite any of us RotoGraphers enough to convince us to write an article about him. So here it is, finally. Before the season, Kiley ranked Severino as the Yankees top prospect and the 26th best prospect in baseball. He figured that Severino would get his cup of coffee late this season or first debut in 2016. So pitching his first game on August 5th was probably earlier than most expected.

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With few exceptions, this has been a very poor year for fantasy production from the catcher spot. As always, injuries had a major role to play as Devin Mesoraco, Matt Wieters, Travis d’Arnaud, and Jonathan Lucroy fell victim to injury and experienced what amounted to lost seasons.  But other catching stalwarts or expected rising stars also disappointed. Let’s take a look at this epidemic of missing stats.

* Only 222 PA this season

While Miguel Montero was close, Buster Posey was the only catcher projected to be in the top 10 in 2015 that met or exceeded all of their pre-season stats projections.

Below are the current overall CBS Player rankings for the top 10 catchers compared to their pre-season expected rankings.

Evan Gattis, Carlos Santana, and Wiln Rosario were 3 players who qualified at Catcher, were ranked in the Pre-Season top 10 at the position, and actually played their games in 2015 at other positions. They all have disappointed this season.  This performance hurts fantasy owners even more because they were probably drafted higher than they normally would because of the expected advantage in counting stats over catchers who normally miss a game or two a week.

Wiln Rosario continued to demonstrate very troubling splits in 2015 that resulted in the significant loss of PAs and he has only logged 222 PAs this season. Here’s more on the other two….

Evan Gattis:

After a 2014 season with the Braves where Gattis batted .263 and produced 22 HRs and drove in 52 in just 108 games, great things were expected with a move to the AL and the more friendly confines of the Astro’s Ballpark. Many had predicted that with increased PAs and forgoing the wear and tear of catching duties Gattis would easily top the 30 HR mark this season.  While his PAs increased significantly to 565, his ISO receded from .230 to .209 and he has clubbed 26 HR to date. What has stayed consistent is his BA which at .243 is closer to his career .249 mark. His .249/.281/.452 slash line is well off the .257/.296/.507 numbers that were projected by CBS Sports.

The biggest culprit seems to be a change in approach at the plate where he is pulling the ball far less and making less authoritative contact. He also seems to have developed some issues driving the fastball and the cutter now completely confounds him. His batted ball distance on HRs is down 20 feet and he has lost 3 mph on his bat speed. Even though 26 HRs in a catcher eligible position is nothing to sneeze at, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, almost 50% of those HRs have been of the JE or “Just Enough” variety which does not portend well for his power numbers next season. Considerng the fact that he has also lost 100 points of average against lefty pitching this season and you have more than enough reasons for missing projections.  New league, new batting approach, and new ballpark are three very impactful changes, so hopefully Gattis will recapture his mojo next season but his catching eligibility is gone.

Carlos Santana:

Carlos Santana erupted for 27 HRs in 2014 which tied for his career high. Since he played 11 games at catcher in 2014, he came into the 2015 season eligible at that positions in many leagues. Last season he appeared in 152 games and had 660 PA’s so the expectations for his counting stats was very high. He was projected to be the kind of player who would yield a significant advantage to those who could slot him in at catcher. Right now, he is projected to reach the 660 PA plateau again this season but he most likely will fall short of hitting even 20 HRs. Santana’s 11 SBs this season is an unexpected gift, but his .236/.362/.380 slash line is below expectations. Santana’s .153 ISO is the lowest of his career.

While he has maintained his excellent plate discipline, his hard hit % is down 6% to a career-low 29.5% and he is undercutting the ball to the tune of a 20.3% IFFB rate. Last season only 7 of his 27 HR’s were of the ESPN Home Run Tracker JE or “Just Enough” designation while 6 of his 16 are this season. Santana is just not hitting the ball with the same authority as he did last year and his power stats have suffered. Like Gattis, his eligibility at catcher will be gone in 2016.

Brian McCann, Russell Martin, Stephen Vogt, Derek Norris, Rick Hundley, Welington Castillo, Yasmani Grandal, and Kyle Schwarber provided some solace for fantasy owners who invested wisely and did not overpay for catcher production. But even among this group, only one of these catchers, Stephen Vogt, is batting over .249.

There is some hope for 2016. If the injured contingent of Mesoraco, Lucroy, and Wieters are able to return to health, and quality youngsters like D’Arnaud,  Schwarber, Swihart, and Realmuto continue to develop, led by the super talented Buster Posey and some of the performers above, we could have an altogether different picture next season. And Baseball Prospectus lauds the catching depth in the Minors as “potentially historic”, so the future could be very bright at the catcher position for years to come and help erase the stench of the 2015 season.

Episode 280

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris continue their discussion of 25-and-Under players to target for 2016 by jumping into starting pitchers. Of course we couldn’t finish all of them so we’ll do more on Thursday, but we do get into plenty including Noah Syndergaard, Julio Teheran, Michael Wacha, Carlos Rodon, Lance McCullers, and Luis Severino among others.

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There’s no getting around it: it’s late September and fall is officially upon us, and as the seasons give way to one another, we mark the end of the waiver wire column for 2015. It’s been rad surveilling the deep fantasy seas with you, but we’re reminded of that line about all good things, so with an eye on closing the deal in the fantasy playoffs, here are two arms who could help the cause in deep leagues.

As usual, the players listed in this space are better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.

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It’s been one heck of a year for rookie hitters. Though, if you’re in a CBS league and take a look at the season-to-date value rankings, you will only find one rookie that made the top 50, Kris Bryant. That’s no surprise though as it’s not often a rookie is that good that he’s able to break into elite fantasy territory in his first season. Of course, some hitters were just promoted too late in the season, like Carlos Correa, to build the counting stats necessary. So while the counting stats from this year’s rookie crop are what we generally expect, the power is not.

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Say it ain’t so! There’s only two weeks of the season left? Wow, how time flies. Hopefully you’re either already in a prize spot or fighting to reach one. The final two weeks are fun because you might decide to make roster moves you would never consider during the earlier part of the season. So here are some random pieces of advice and thoughts for these final two weeks.

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Well, I have had making a two-start evaluator on my to-do list for a while. With the help of Jonah Pemstein, the project is done. A problem is its usefulness with only two weeks left in the season. I am going to roll it out anyway and take comments over the next couple of weeks. It will then be ready for full implementation to start next season.

The setup is pretty simple right now.
•Find the games a pitcher is expected to start this upcoming week.
• Determine the starters projected Steamer stats per start.
• Use my Standing Gain Points formula I calculated to start the season to give each pitcher a weekly value. Then rank them by this value.

This is all the data available for now, but running it for the first time I found a few ways to improve it going forward.
• I ran into a coding error for pitchers who have no more projected starts (end of the list like Hudson or Moore) according to Steamer. I am trying to get the depth charts updated to make sure this doesn’t happen in the future.
• On the same note, the stats for pitchers who are swingman (starter and reliever) may be a bit inflated because of the improved reliever rates.
• Wins are just funky but needed to show the value of the chance to pick up two Wins. Ideas?
• The strength of opponent and park factors are not shown or worked in yet. I am working on this portion now but wanted to make the list available before next week.

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Episode 279

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette discuss a group of hitters who have failed to live up to expectation. These aren’t just injury guys, either. Some have dealt with injuries, but all have a substantial amount of playing time and just haven’t done what you’d expect. Names include: Yasmani Grandal, Albert Pujols, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Gomez among others.

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Episode 278

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris offer up their favorite 25-and-under potential keepers around the diamond. These are guys are likely attainable in your leagues, so no Bryce Harper or Jose Fernandez as they are simply cost-prohibitive at their level. These are like Xander Bogaerts, Maikel Franco, Kyle Schwarber, and Kolten Wong among many others.

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Here’s one you haven’t heard before: the baseball season is long. (Who knew?) One potential downside of the six-month grind is that it’s hard to follow everything. My work is baseball – watching it, writing and talking about it – and I still can’t possibly follow everything that is going on in this great game. It’s impossible to miss the historical seasons that Zack Greinke and Bryce Harper are having. Even a breakout season like A.J. Pollock’s is rather prominent. What I find getting lost in the shuffle at times are strong second halves that follow a down or injury-riddled first half.

The underperformance or injury sets the tone for the perception of that player’s season and it can carry throughout the season even in the face of high-end performance refuting the initial look we got at that player. Here are three strong second-half performances that you might be missing:

Travis d’Arnaud [C, NYM]

A solid second half last year plus the rich prospect pedigree of this former first-rounder was enough to make him one of the more appealing C2 options this year sitting 13th among backstops by ADP according to FantasyPros. He came out of the gates firing with a .317/.356/.537 line including 2 HR and 10 RBI in his first 11 games before a fractured right finger sent him to the DL.

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