At last, we have reached our final 2015 Pod Projection review! All pitcher projections were based on the methodology laid out in my just released eBook, Projecting X 2.0. Yes, it’s the follow up to the original Projecting X, and is chock full of new research, new metrics, new ideas, and new methods for projecting baseball player performance.
Playing a little catch-up from the holidays, here are the fantasy implications from the latest impact moves and they aren’t all former Cincinnati Reds:
(Remember, you can follow all the move analysis here)
If a pitcher who struggled mightily like Jeff Samardzija gets a major boost by joining the Giants, then you can only imagine what it could do for Cueto. Overall, he had a fantastic season and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last five seasons. He sputtered some with KC, allowing a ton more hits while striking out two fewer batters per nine innings. He closed strong with a World Series complete game, but he’s likely thrilled to return to the Senior Circuit.
Homers usually get Cueto when he’s off. He had a 1.1 HR/9 with KC including outings of 4 and 3 HR. AT&T Park is the spot to stifle homers. That’s something Fangraphs, Statcorner, and ESPN can all agree upon when it comes to measuring park factors. This is a great move for the Giants to solidify their rotation with a big three in Madison Bumgarner, Cueto, and then Samardzija. All of a sudden, the burden on Jake Peavy and Matt Cain is much lower and Chris Heston is now the fill-in if one of them fails.
Impact: ++ for Cueto, – for Heston
Today I continue reviewing my preseason posts and this time I will bravely recap how my Pod Projection fared against the Steamer projection for Zack Greinke. As we are all well aware, Greinke just so happened to lead all Major League starters in ERA, en route to a second place finish in the Cy Young voting. Sadly, Greinke wiggled his way into a Steamer and I post because Steamer was significantly more optimistic about his performance than Pod was. I guess we know how this is going to go…
After David Price’s and Zack Greinke’s $200 million deals, it is easy to treat the $90 million contract the Giants gave to Jeff Samardzija as simply the price one pays for an average starting pitcher these days. Of course, looking at 2015 alone, it may be a stretch to call Samardzija an average starter. As Jeff Sullivan detailed, Samardzija led baseball in both hits and runs last season. His 4.96 ERA bested only Alfredo Simon and Chris Tillman among the 78 qualified starters.
It’s the final Pod’s Picks recap of the season! Finally, we get to my favorite position for nerdy analysis, the starting pitchers. Refresh your memory with my original starting pitcher Pod’s Picks post.
Bullish
Admit it, you were a Gregory Polanco owner, held onto him all season long, and were disappointed by his performance. Though you felt he wasn’t a bust per se, it sure felt like he failed to earn his cost, right? If you recall, and I promise not to get upset if you do not, the RotoGraphs five ranked him 46th overall among outfielders in the preseason. Now tell me if it surprises you that he actually finished 32nd in value, earning $14.58. Because that is what happened according to Zach Sanders’ calculator.
Prepare for an adventure in which we fly over to the FanGraphs leaderboard, choose a minimum of 120 plate appearances, and sort in descending order by ISO. Unless you played in an AL-Only league and were trying to catch the standings leader who owned this very character, you might be shocked who sits ranked second. Obviously, I gave it away in the title of this article. But if you remain stumped, it was 32-year-old Franklin Gutierrez. The man didn’t even play in 2014 due to health reasons and came into 2015 with a career ISO mark of just .135.
You all remember the clever hashtag #ManBearPuig that parodied the brilliant South Park episode ManBearPig, right? Of course you do, because you use Twitter and you love South Park. Sadly, Yasiel Puig is quickly shedding his ManBearness. After posting a scintillating .398 wOBA during his 2013 debut, his performance has declined for two straight seasons, with the fall off this year a precipitous one. Will ManBearPuig make his triumphant return?
Maybe. End of article.
In late August of 2014, the Red Sox signed Rusney Castillo to a seven year contract and the considerable hype was ignited. Unfortunately, Castillo battled injuries, was shuttled back and forth between Triple-A and the big league club several times and was disappointing at the plate at both the minor and Major League levels. But Castillo seemingly has all the tools. Will they translate into actual performance?
In deeper formats, it can become difficult to find quality fourth and fifth outfielders because of how many players at the position are used in the league. Fortunately, outfield provides the most opportunities to mix and match in leagues, especially in daily games or in leagues that allow daily lineup changes. Much like the teams themselves, taking advantage of players with extreme platoon splits can provide the line of an expensive outfield for cheap, as long as you’re willing to put in the managerial work. Here are some platoon options I plan to use to help me fill out my deeper rosters next season.
