Last week, I brought back the Pod’s Picks series, though renamed it this time since not every player was technically a “pick”. Pod’s Picks and Pans compares my ranking to the consensus (excluding my rank) at each position to determine who I am most bullish and bearish on relative to the rest of the rankers. Thanks to commenter bubba munga, I have calculated the rankings difference using a new method, involving the LN function on Excel. This properly weighs the more significant difference between picks five and 10 versus 35 and 41, despite the latter pair being six picks apart, as opposed to just give in the former.

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For those of you that don’t know me, I am one of the newest writers to Rotographs and I was bestowed the honor of being the fill-in for this marvelous series. If you have read my work, whether here or on my other site, I will attempt to offer some of my usual flair while obviously being a tad bit more serious here than I am in the intros on my weekly pieces or podcast. Big thanks to Eno and Paul for bringing me aboard, Zach for tolerating me, and to David Wiers for vacating his parking spot. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m the Jose Molina of Bold Predictions. Sure, I can’t hit my weight, but you can still read about me on FanGraphs.
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3/16/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Lance McCullers to DL
• Yasiel Puig no suspension
• MIL not naming a closer
• Juan Nicasio turning heads in PIT

Strategy Section: Good Guys Off Bad Years

• Yasiel Puig
• Carlos Gomez
• Troy Tulowitzki
• Ian Desmond
• Hanley Ramirez
• Anthony Rendon
• Jacoby Ellsbury
• Yan Gomes
• Victor Martinez

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I am a huge San Francisco Giants fan. However, if you have followed my work prior to joining Rotographs, you know I hate Gregor Blanco. I will explain further. Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Let’s rewind to spring training of 2015. It was one in which the hype became deafening for Taijuan Walker. He pitched 27 innings, allowing just two runs, for a microscopic 0.67 ERA. His underlying peripherals (ya know, the spring stats that might actually matter) were strong too, but it was most certainly that tiny ERA that took Walker from sleeper and breakout candidate into that risky territory in which he has to break out just to break even for his fantasy owners. So how were his new owners rewarded? With a luscious 4.56 ERA. Oops. His skills were excellent though and he managed to post a more respectable 3.69 SIERA. So is this the breakout year?

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We are doing our March ranking updates. You can follow each position here:

• Outfielders
• Starting Pitchers
• First Base
• Shortstops
• Catchers

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Zach Sanders
• Mike Podhorzer
• Dan Schwartz
• Paul Kastava
• Justin Mason

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

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It’s time for another (and perhaps final) comparison between my Pod Projections and Steamer. Today we’ll look at another starting pitcher who I am significantly more bullish on by ERA than Steamer.

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We are doing our March ranking updates. You can follow each position here:

• Outfielders
• Starting Pitchers
• First Base
• Shortstops

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Zach Sanders
• Mike Podhorzer
• Dan Schwartz
• Paul Kastava
• Justin Mason

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

After a breakout 2014 performance, Jeff Samardzija followed up with a stinker of a season. His ERA spiked by nearly two full runs, his SIERA jumped by more than a run, and his strikeout rate plummeted, as did his ground ball rate. It’s no surprise then that the RotoGraphs ranking crew don’t exactly agree on his 2016 value. His individual ranking ranged from a bullish 25 to a bearish 69, but a “split” (difference between high and low ranking) of 44, the highest mark among the top 45 consensus pitchers.

Despite his poor 2015 results, the Giants gave him a five-year contract. Let’s find out if a return to the National League and calling the most pitcher friendly park in baseball home can spark a rebound.

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