When I analyze a starting pitcher’s strikeout rate spike, I want to see that it’s driven by an increase in swings and misses induced. It could come from other avenues — a higher rate of strikes thrown or more called or foul strikes. But in my eyes, the most believable way to sustain that strikeout rate surge is by generating additional whiffs. So below are the seven American League starting pitchers that have increased their SwStk% marks the most compared to last season.

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In the beginning of March I wrote an article on American League outfield prospects that could make an impact on fantasy teams this season. We have already seen a surprising amount of early season call ups and with Memorial Day fast approaching, I thought it would be relevant to update the progress of these players. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to another edition of the deep league waiver wire, where there’s another opportunity to take advantage of an injury and a preemptive move for an imminent returnee.

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Three years ago, I introduced the best pitcher expected walk percentage formula yet. The formula uses a pair of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s in-play strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates are per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter. The equation isn’t nearly as strong as my xK% one, as it’s clearly missing sequencing, which may or may not be a consistent skill. But it’s pretty darn good and the best we have at the moment.

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Three years ago, I introduced the best pitcher expected walk percentage formula yet. The formula uses a pair of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s in-play strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates are per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter. The equation isn’t nearly as strong as my xK% one, as it’s clearly missing sequencing, which may or may not be a consistent skill. But it’s pretty darn good and the best we have at the moment.

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Matt Harvey has now made six starts this season. His strikeouts per nine are down from 8.9 last season to 6.6 this season. His walks per nine are up from 1.8 to 2.9. His ERA is up from 2.71 to 4.76, and his xFIP is up from 3.24 to 4.36. It is just six starts, but given that his most recent was on Tuesday and featured just four strikeouts and two walks against the hapless Braves, his early-season struggles seem much more alarming than they did on Monday. At the very least, he is the preseason top 10 starter who has fantasy owners the closest to panic.

At times this season, Harvey has been visibly frustrated on the mound, which I take as a sign that he is having mechanical issues. His fastball velocity is also down from 95.9 mph in 2015 to 94.1 mph so far this season. But what has intrigued me the most is his apparent unease in pitching from the stretch, something his pitching coach Dan Warthen has mentioned as an area that Harvey has had difficulty in his career. I had never noticed his issues with men on base prior to this season, but I’m sure that Harvey’s declining performance has me looking for problems that I could easily have ignored before.

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If you’re hurting for outfield help in your deep mixed or mono league, this week’s deep league waiver wire is to the rescue!

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Seattle’s Tony Zych will be placed on the 15-day DL for rotator cuff tendinitis, as the origins and timetable for return are not known. Last year in a small sample Zych looked very strong. Zych was continuing to open eyes with a 14.25 K/9 this season, but his control was also concern with a BB/9 of 6. Steve Johnson was called up to fill his roster spot, but not his role as the second set-up man. Johnson impressed in AAA this year with 20 K’s and 2 BB’s over 16 innings. Yet in his limited major league exposure, Johnson has produced a 4.25 ERA (4.33 FIP) with a good K rate (10.49 per 9) and poor BB rate (5.46 per 9). Nick Vincent will be second in line for saves it seems, and he has performed well this season. Vincent had been a solid low leverage reliever for the Padres, and there appears to have been improvements made this year. His strikeouts are slightly up from the past and he has yet to issue a walk. The two dings on his numbers this year have been the two home runs he gave up this year, but I’m still intrigued by the batted ball data. His previous career high GB/FB ratio was 1.26. This season: 2.17. I know, it’s early and we need to see more if we can conclude whether something has changed. He can still be a nice source for Holds while Zych is sidelined.
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Two years ago, I modified the first equation I developed to yield an improved expected strikeout rate formula. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates as per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter.

Yesterday, I discussed the starting pitchers whose xK% most exceed their actual strikeout rates. Today, I’ll look at the other side of the list — those starting pitchers whose actual strikeout rates most exceed their xK% marks. These pitchers are at significant risk for regression.

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Two years ago, I modified the first equation I developed to yield an improved expected strikeout rate formula. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates as per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter. I calculated the xK% marks for all qualified starting pitchers, compared it to their xK% marks, and sorted. Let’s discuss those with the most significant potential upside, as suggested by xK%.

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