Last week, Eno reminded us that baseball players are actually human and do feel emotion when traded, especially on a moment’s notice at the trade deadline. Luckily for both Josh Reddick and Rich Hill, they won’t have to travel far to get to their new destinations, as both were traded together to the Dodgers, just five to six hours south of Oakland. Google Maps tells me that the quickest route is via I-5, though the scenic Pacific Coast Highway is another option. Sadly though, they would have to reroute as they approach the area affected by the wildfires near Big Sur. So let’s check the park factors to determine how the change in venue may affect each player’s performance.

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It’s no surprise that a team sporting a 45-60 record has been selling off pieces over the past month. That’s exactly what has happened for the Padres, who now trots out a starting offense that includes many names most baseball fans and fantasy owners would have to search for on these very pages to learn more about (including me). So let’s dive into this no-name offense and see if we could find any hidden treasures.

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As expected, the Nationals acquired a big arm for their pen by trading for Mark Melancon. The Nationals traded lefties Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn to the Pirates for Melancon, which shakes up two bullpens. Melancon will be the closer in Washington, and Jonathan Papelbon has reportedly handled the news well. Papelbon has struggled in his last three appearances giving up a total of 7 earned runs in 1 inning pitched. August Fagerstrom goes in depth about Melancon, who has been one of the best closers in baseball with a 1.51 ERA (2.66 FIP). The BB% (5.5) is the highest for Melancon since 2012 and Fagerstrom points out it is because hitters are laying off his curveball. Nothing to be of real concern just yet, but might be something to monitor down the road. The grid has Papelbon next in line despite Shawn Kelley having a better year, so that could change as we see more late inning situations. The Pirates will now turn to Tony Watson to close games out, who has also been good this year posting a 2.66 ERA (3.71 FIP). Some areas to look out for are his homeruns are slightly up (0.82 HR/9), and his BB% (8.6) is the highest it has been since 2012. The two years prior he has been elite and outside of a three game stretch in June, has not given up runs in back-to-back games. Neftali Feliz is now next in line for saves, followed by the newly acquired Felipe Rivero. Feliz has the better K rate (29.4%) and BB rate (7.2%) than Watson, but those HR/9 (1.37) are concerning. I’m tempted to keep Pittsburgh at green, but it’s a new closer so we’ll start off a little conservative with yellow. Read the rest of this entry »

This week I wanted to check on three teams with injuries at first base and what timetables those teams are looking at for returns, along with analysis of their replacements. I skipped the Cardinals in this write-up because most fans should be rather familiar with Matt Adams and Jedd Gyorko is being picked up like crazy in most leagues, so his availability has started to get limited in deeper leagues.

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I’m no artist, but as we enter August let me paint a picture of what I see happening in many fantasy leagues:

“My team started fast and I was optimistic in May, but since then I’ve fallen out of the race and am now looking only towards next season.”

“My league’s title chase appeared to be close in June, but just a month or so later it now looks like it’s really over – it’s a one (maybe two) horse race.”

“Our league trade deadline is still 30 days away but no one is really buying at this point.  It makes for a tough sell.”

“A lot of the owners in my league seem like they’ve checked out for the summer.  There’s just not a lot of activity from those teams lower in the standings.”

Familiar? Of course I’m using very broad brush strokes here but you get the point: it’s rare to find a fantasy league that has a hot race involving half your league’s teams in August (and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen one in September).  But this isn’t really surprising, is it? Still, if you’ve ever won a fantasy league then you know the only thing better than winning is winning a competitive fantasy league.  We all want to win among the best, don’t we? That’s what bragging rights are all about.

My original intent for this article was to debate whether or not it’s possible to legislate competitiveness within your fantasy league, but we’ll just skip to the conclusion and say “it’s not”. This fact is probably obvious to you but in 20 years of being a fantasy commissioner I can tell you I’ve tried many times to drive competition up and down the standings each season, but in the end there’s no secret sauce.  Instead, I’ve come to the conclusion that attempting to build an active league is far better than trying to manufacture a competitive one, so today I’ll leave you with a few ideas that might help increase engagement in your league, and also ask for your feedback on what else might be working for you.

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On Tuesday night, Steven Wright was roughed up for nine hits and eight earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Tigers. Amazingly, he remains seventh among qualified starters in the AL with a 3.12 ERA, but there seems to be this constant fear that Wright could become a bad pitcher at any moment. Given his lack of track record before this season, I think some apprehension is justifiable. However, my perception is that the greater part of the mistrust of Wright’s performance to date is tied to his being a knuckleballer, which I believe makes people think these sorts of blow-up performances are all but guaranteed when he loses the feel for his most important pitch.

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After missing the entirety of the 2015 season and nearly two-thirds of this season, former top prospect Tyler Skaggs finally made his triumphant return from Tommy John surgery on Tuesday. Though the surface results are meaningless, he did go seven innings, striking out five, while issuing just one walk. The now-25-year-old showed serious strikeout ability in the minors and his ground ball spike in 2014 was intriguing. And although his strikeout rate slipped in 2014, his fastball velocity jumped three miles per hour, which is almost unheard of when it’s not related to a move from the starting rotation to the bullpen. So we had the makings of a true sleeper here. Now that he’s back, is he worth rostering?

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No, your computer screen hasn’t frozen from several weeks ago, nor is FanGraphs on repeat. Instead, I’m double dipping, reiterating two recommendations I have made over the past month.

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Yesterday, I discussed some of the starting pitchers whose xK% significantly exceeded their actual K% marks, suggesting strikeout rate upside over the rest of the season. Today, I’ll check in on the opposite end of the spectrum, looking at those fantasy relevant starting pitchers whose strikeout rates are far exceeding their xK% marks.

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Let’s do one final rest of season xK% update. If you recall, my xK% equation uses Baseball-Reference.com metrics to calculate a pitcher expected strikeout rate. It’s missing a sequencing component, though who knows if that’s even a skill. But even without accounting for such, it has proven to be one of the best expected metrics we have developed, at least by R-squared. So let’s begin with the fantasy relevant starting pitchers whose expected strikeout rates are well above their actual marks, suggesting significant upside over the rest of the season.

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