And we’re back to our new regularly scheduled programming of starting pitcher streamer recommendations for games one day in advance. Thankfully, tonight offers a solid slate of options.
Episode 169
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! That makes two in a row.
Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix on, among other topics:
Sandy Alderson and the direction of the New York Mets; Frank Wren and the direction of the Atlanta Braves; Edinson Volquez; Dan Haren; all the pitchers who’ve just been shut down; Hisashi Iwakuma; David Price; and, with those points as segues, the streamers from the next few days who interest us most, beginning on Tuesday.
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Of starters who have thrown a fastball at least 200 times this year, Yusmeiro Petit’s average velocity (89.13 MPH according to Baseball Pro’s Pitchf/x leaderboard) comes in at #167 of 173. Yet, only Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Yu Darvish have better K-rates than him. Only Kershaw, Francisco Liriano, Masahiro Tanaka, Sale, Tyson Ross and Carlos Carrasco have a better swinging-strike rate than him in general.
Coming into this season, some fantasy baseball players felt that one of these backstops was an elite option and the other a strong rebound candidate. One disappointed, while the other didn’t. But in the last month or so, each has flipped the script, prompting questions about what lies ahead.
The curtain has not yet come down on the 2014 regular season, but if you’re like me, flushed out of the playoffs with not a whole lot to do except look ahead to next year, you’re probably already mulling over your keepers. For me, no one quite draws my eye like Travis d’Arnaud, who I took in the last round of my 12-team, mixed H2H single-catcher league as a stasher and rode through what’s been a roller coaster-like season for him.
A keeper backstop is an uncommon and risky venture. Catchers, after all, get hurt. They don’t steal bases. They don’t hit for a high average. It’s a rare bird who notches more than 20 home runs, and rarer still the ones who knock in more than 80 RBIs. It’s a position that typically offers a terrible return on investment, which makes keepers a premium commodity — especially when they come at a post-hype price tag.
Read the rest of this entry »
Justin Morneau’s place on the Colorado Rockies didn’t make much sense when the deal was announced. It was written about here, by Paul Swydan, and pretty much everywhere else. And Swydan was right, in my opinion: the Rockies did have a better player sitting there in Corey Dickerson (who ended up playing a ton anyways, thanks to injuries). All it would have taken was moving Michael Cuddyer to first to hand Dickerson the right field job. Well, Cuddyer got hurt, along with Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki (shocker). And Morneau – his production, anyways – ended up having a place after all, even if the process that got him there wasn’t prudent in its nature.
Morneau has done a ton of good with the plate appearances he’s taken this season, posting a .371 wOBA (120 wRC+), and performing as a top-15 fantasy option at first base in standard leagues. Interestingly enough, though, he can’t really thank a power rebound: his .175 ISO is better than last season’s mark of .152, but is still well below his career average. Morneau’s value has almost solely come from his ability to hit for average, something his new home park undoubtedly helps with.
The tribe has spoken. Some of you play in leagues that allow you to pick up and start pitchers for that day’s slate of games, while others must add a pitcher a day in advance. Since I enjoy catering to the masses, that means that today you’ll find a super-sized set of streamer recommendations so I don’t skip a day. Remember, the names below are those owned in fewer than 50% of CBS leagues.
• Ryan Zimmerman returned from the DL and went 2-3 in his first game back. He is far from being 100%. He can barely run jog walk right now. Kirk Gibson’s 1988 home trot is what Zimmerman’s triple reminded me of. I have no clue why he is not resting and waiting for the post-season to force himself into the lineup.
• Stuart Wallace at the Beyond The Box Score gives us his take on Glen Perkins’s elbow.
Overall, Perkins should be ready to go for next season; with the clean bill of health in terms of the UCL, fears that a Tommy John procedure is inevitable should be allayed, even with the knowledge that 40% of baseball players presenting with UCL injuries demonstrate symptoms consistent with ulnar neuritis.
I spend an inordinate amount of time playing with splits. It’s hard to come up with two new topics to write about each week, so I export a lot of data to Excel and click and sort around until I find something interesting. During the relatively boring late slate of football games yesterday afternoon, I was looking at ball in play data.
It occurred to me that there should be a pretty strong correlation between ERA on balls in play and OPS allowed on balls in play (there is). It then occurred to me that guys who have a relative ERA that’s much lower than their relative OPS might be getting a little lucky. When I say relative, I just calculated each pitcher’s z-score for both statistics, which were adjusted for number of batters faced since they are rate stats. Here are those potentially lucky pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »
I will assume that those who can take advantage of streamer opportunities are those in daily transaction leagues and after reading this article, it will not be too late to pick up a starting pitcher to stream for tonight’s game. If I am wrong, please let me know so I know to recommend pitchers for the following day instead! Below I have listed some of your options, which include those owned in fewer than 50% of CBS leagues. Let’s decide if they are worth a stream.
