When you examine at end-of-season rankings, some players stand out more than others against the backdrop of their rotisserie-successful peers. But a lot happens in the course of a year. It’s unfair to dismiss the accomplishments of players as something … less than fluke but more than breakthrough … without some thorough investigation.

Some players finally realize their potential and have built a foundation of skills (including the “health skill”) on which their new performance baselines can rest. But others haven’t. And that’s usually reflected in their outcomes the following season. It happens to some players unexpectedly, but some are easy to see coming.

More than a handful of players stick out right away as candidates for that kind of result next year. Too many things went their way, and I wouldn’t expect so many to go in their favor once again. We’ve discussed these players in the podcast at one time or another. Sometimes I think that such players are obvious, but there’s always a proponent or buyer.

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My first attempt at bold predictions did not fare too well, but I trust you’ll be a lenient grader given that my predictions were on the bolder side. Let’s examine the damage.

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It took a special kind of player to be, on the whole, a useless regular position player in mixed fantasy baseball leagues of 10 or 12 teams in 2014. Offense is down. One’s offense is downright offensive against that backdrop when he manages to accrue 600 plate appearances and put up numbers that earn negative dollars.

Many players made a run at the honor of being unworthy of a roster spot for the duration of the season in standard mixed leagues. A dozen in all accumulated 500 or more PAs and returned negative value. Andrelton Simmons came up a couple of dozen PAs short of 600. But in the end, only two players reached the 600-PA plateau and were still bums, according to the Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings due to hit RotoGraphs shelves in the next week. Keep your eyes peeled.

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Episode 172

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix, in the first offseason edition, with an emphasis on keeper decisions, discuss:

Alex Rodriguez, Tanner Roark, Jon Lester, James Shields, Sonny Gray, Derek Norris, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Brandon Moss, Madison Bumgarner, Edinson Volquez, Gerrit Cole, Starling Marte, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Belt, and a listener’s keeper dilemma that involves Max Scherzer, Dee Gordon, Cole, Mookie Betts, Carlos Carrasco, and Travis d’Arnaud.

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Any day now, Zach Sanders (@zvsanders) will come out with his end-of-season FAVRz/Fantasy Rankings. Look out for them.

For this post, I will provide three sets of rankings using that same approach (summed up z-scores) for our end-of-season “Bullpen Report: Expected Fantasy Rankings”. The Bullpen Report team should follow up with role reports for each division in the coming weeks as well.

The first set of rankings you will find almost anywhere: on the fantasy sites that you use, via player-raters, etc. It’s the standard 5×5 fantasy value (Wins, ERA, WHIP, SO and Saves). The second grid will be for 6×6 leagues (addition of Holds). The last grid will be for 5×5 and 6×6 leagues, but instead of standard ERA and WHIP, we’ll look at rankings if you were to use expected ERA (via SIERA) and adjusted (adj)WHIP through BABIP differential: I will explain below.

1) 5×5 Rankings (Wins, ERA, WHIP, SO and Saves) – actual 5×5 value in column 4; expected 5×5 value in column 5:

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Contrary to what the headline says: I have no footage of Ryan Howard actually doing a flip. If you do, though, that’d be cool.

But in all seriousness Howard isn’t what he used to be. We all know that. He’s only posted a wRC+ mark over 100 once in in the past three seasons. And, thanks to injuries, coupled with his dwindling production, he’s only surpassed the 20-homer mark once during the same span. But, despite his middling output, Howard’s still been useful versus right handed pitching – meaning he’s been useful in a fantasy platoon, something that was noted in his Fangraphs+ profile. [Shameless plug, sign up for it next year. It’s cheap, and awesome.]

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What is most valuable in any category depends on how “valuable” is defined. It’s one of those things that has criteria which would seem to lend neutrality to the determination of what is “most,” and yet there is really no defining, objective attribute that completely defuses subjectivity. Consensus must do. What is most valuable, then, is a poll of popular opinion, informally. Formally, it’s a ballot of popular opinion among those considered most credible or deemed most qualified to opine. There’s, potentially, a whole other debate.

According to the indubitable Wikipedia, Paul Cezanne’s “The Card Players” might be the most valuable painting, having been sold for the greatest amount of money, adjusted for inflation, in history. Many works may never see the auction floor, of course, making them, essentially, priceless. One of those types is Leonardo da Vinci’s “Mona Lisa,” which is supposed to have the greatest insurance value on record.

I don’t know art, but I know what I like. You saw that coming.

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Looking back on this column is like reviewing a high school yearbook photo from freshman year: the pimples can’t be Photoshopped away, the hair style screams what was he thinking?? and in hindsight, it’s no mystery that none of the girls wanted to date me. In a way, it’s fitting that this piece is being published on the same week of Yom Kippur; just as the holiest day on the Jewish calendar implores Jews worldwide to atone for their sins, so must I answer for some of these predictions.
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• For the offseason, I am going to track every player who had or plans on having off-season surgery. I will remove them once they are at 100% in spring training. For some of the injured players in the post season, like Josh Hamilton and Rajai Davis, more information will become available as the postseason goes on or once it is over. Additionally, I am working through all the 2014 injured players individually to see if I need to track them in the offseason. Right now, I have two lists. One of players I have gone through (short) and one I have not examined (long). I should be done next week and have just one list.

• Must See: The Dallas Morning News created a couple of great graphics showing how much time and money was lost to the disabled list this season with a focus on the Rangers. I will go through and run my own values later, but a nice peek at how teams performed health wise in 2014.

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It was a decent season. Won 25% of my leagues. Placed in the top third in 58%, bottom third in 17%. When you’ve got 12 leagues, mostly with sharps, it’s tough to expect much more than this, but I do. Especially since all my pitching staffs were so good. Gotta be better with hitting.

And you’ll see that I might have gotten over-exuberant with my hitting predictions. With the run environment tanking every year, maybe it’s all about safe plays (if they exist) in the lineup. Which is tough on me because I love upside.

So let’s look at the tale of the tape. How did I do on my bold predictions? I have a feeling I’m going to get a sixer of good adult soda from Jay Long of Razzball…

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