Archive for First Base

Derrek Lee finished 21st in the MVP vote in 2008 on the heels of his .291/.361/.462 season for the NL Central-winning Chicago Cubs. But as impressive as that may be, Lee is a fringe fantasy starter in a 12-team mixed league.

In 2005, the idea that Lee would be a fringe starter just a few years later was absurd. That season he went .335-46-107 and seemingly had the world at his feet. But after signing a five-year contract in April of 2006, Lee suffered a right wrist injury that ruined his season and apparently robbed him of his power.

When he returned in 2007, Lee hit just 22 HR and his 12.6 percent HR/FB ratio was nearly half the total he posted in his big 2005 season of 23.7 percent. In 2008, many thought his power would return with him being further out from the wrist surgery. But Lee’s HR/FB ratio fell to 11.7 percent and his FB% fell to 33.7 percent, a career low.

What HR power Lee does possess at this point seems to be a Wrigley Field illusion. In the past two seasons, he’s hit 31 HR at home and just 11 in neutral road parks.

Lee enters 2009 as a 33-year old with limited power at a fantasy position that demands big HR and RBI numbers. In 2008, Lee had the 11th-best dollar value among first basemen, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. Among those beneath him and ready to challenge him for a spot in the top 12 are Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, Chris Davis and Pablo Sandoval. Aubrey Huff and Jorge Cantu have first base eligibility, as well.

Since bursting onto the scene as a precocious 20 year-old and helping the Florida Marlins capture a World Series title in 2003, Miguel Cabrera has remained an offensive powerhouse. A career .309/.381/.541 hitter, Cabrera has already belted 175 home runs and has compiled over 20 wins above average, per WPA/LI. A look at Cabrera’s most comparable players at Baseball-Reference reveals a who’s-who of Cooperstown legends. His most similar batters through age 25 include Ken Griffey Jr., Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Vladimir Guerrero and Al Kaline. Five Hall of Fame hitters, another surefire one in Griffey and a possible member in Vlad? That’s impressive.

With all of that praise rightly given, there is one facet of Cabrera’s performance that is trending in the wrong direction. While the 6-4, 240 pounder remained an extremely dangerous hitter upon transitioning to the AL (popping a league-best 37 home runs and typing his career-high ISO of .245), he has gradually become less selective at the plate. After posting a leviathan .430 OBP in 2006 and drawing walks at a healthy 13% clip, Cabrera posted a .401 OBP in 2007 (11.8 BB%) and a mild .349 OBP in his first season with the Tigers in 2008 (8.3%). Generally speaking, most hitters improve their plate discipline with more experience at the major league level. However, in Cabrera’s case, the exact opposite appears to be occurring. He started off with a very refined approach, but has gradually morphed into a free swinger:

Cabrera’s Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%), 2006-2008:

2006: 23.1%
2007: 30.2%
2008: 34.2%

Cabrera took as many cuts at bad balls as any hitter this past year, swinging at the 13th-highest percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, this more aggressive approach has coincided with an increase in Cabrera’s First-Pitch Strike Percentage (F-Strike%). Cabrera has found himself behind in the count 0-and-1 or has put the ball in play on the first pitch more and more:

Cabrera’s F-Strike%, 2006-2008:

2006: 54.2%
2007: 60%
2008: 64.9%

Among qualified batters, only noted hackers Corey Hart (whose exploits have been covered), Adam Jones, Carlos Gomez and Jeff Francoeur (also covered here before) put themselves in a hole more often in 2008 than did Cabrera.

Showing less restraint at the dish, Cabrera’s incredibly lofty numbers have dipped to….well, they’re still pretty lofty. But, using one of Fangraphs’ new toys, wOBA, we can see how the lack of walks has put something of a dent in his performance. wOBA is a linear weight formula that assigns specific run values to each hitting event, giving us a very accurate account of just how much a hitter contributed to his team. It basically values these outcomes relative to each other, assigning proper weight to each outcome (for instance, a home run is going to be assigned a little more than twice the run value of a single). wOBA is aligned to look like OBP, so the league average wOBA is always the league average OBP for a given year. For a more complete explanation, see Dave Cameron’s post here.

From 2006 to 2008, Cabrera has posted wOBA’s of .413, .402 and .376, respectively. Using the league average wOBA, we can find how many runs above average Cabrera contributed in each season. To find this, you subtract Cabrera’s wOBA from the league average, divide that number by 1.15 and multiply by the number of plate appearances he got each season.

2006

Cabrera’s wOBA: .413
LG AVG wOBA: .334

.413 (Cabrera’s wOBA)-.334 (NL average wOBA) = .079 (Difference between Cabrera and the LG AVG)
.079/1.15 = .0687 (Runs above average per PA)
.0687 X 676 (Cabrera’s PA in 2006) = 46.4 runs above average

Using that same approach, here are Cabrera’s RAA totals for 2007 and 2008:

2007

Cabrera’s wOBA: .402
LG AVG wOBA: .334

40.2 runs above average

2008

Cabrera’s wOBA: .376
LG AVG wOBA: .335

24.4 runs above average

In the course of a few seasons, Cabrera has gone from four-and-a-half wins above average with his bat to about two-and-half. This drop is also reflected in his WPA/LI, which has fallen from 5.41 in 2006, down to 3.5 in 2007 and 2.45 this past year. Cabrera is still very effective, to be sure, but that’s a pretty steep drop.

None of this is to suggest that Miguel Cabrera is someone that you want to avoid come draft day. But, given his shift down the defensive spectrum to first base (he’ll qualify at third base this year, but that’s probably it) and his declining plate discipline, perhaps Cabrera isn’t quite the value he might seem upon first glance. Cabrera has all the talent in the world, but he’s going to have to show a little more patience if he wants to make good on the Hall of Fame comparisons bestowed upon him.

When fantasy players think of the top first basemen in the game, Adrian Gonzalez is not the first name that comes to mind. But the first overall pick in the 2000 draft put up his third straight solid season, posting .279-36-119 line with 103 runs scored. Gonzalez established career highs in HR, RBI and R despite playing in a home park that killed his numbers.

In Petco Park, Gonzalez had a .788 OPS while on the road his OPS checked in at .946 for the year. He hit as many home runs on the road (22) as Ryan Howard, although the NL home run leader enjoyed a 26-14 edge in their respective home parks.

Home park aside, there is a lot to like about Gonzalez. He upped his BB% to 10.7 percent last year and his ISO to .231 – both career highs. His BABIP was a reasonable .311 and it was supported by a 20.4 percent line drive rate.

Gonzalez achieved his career high 36 homers thanks to a 20.7 percent HR/FB rate, which ranked ninth in the majors. However, just 36.6 percent of his batted balls were fly balls, which ranked 74th last season and one which he should be able to improve in 2009.

When projecting Gonzalez the two keys are to figure how well he will do in Petco and if he can rebound versus southpaws. Last year, lefties limited him to a .213/.287/.387 line in 261 plate appearances. His OPS was 59 points lower against lefties in 2008 than for his career, including an AVG 35 points beneath his lifetime marks against lefties.

Regression cuts both ways. Any drops in power and/or production should be matched or exceeded by an increase in batting average. Gonzalez is entering the prime of his career and a $25 season is well within his reach. While up to four first baseman may go in the first round of your draft, Gonzalez makes an excellent consolation prize in round four and allows you to concentrate on scarcer positions in the first few rounds.

Power hitters playing in Texas are a fantasy player’s dream. Chris Davis certainly fits the bill.

Throughout his minor league career, all Davis has done is mash. Despite being young for his level at virtually every stop, Davis has a career minor league line of .302/.357/.595, with 75 homers in 275 games. Last year, Davis got the call to the big leagues and didn’t disappoint, hitting .285/.331/.549 with the Rangers, and smacking 17 homers in only 80 games.

Davis is a hulking slugger who swings quite hard, and, not surprisingly, strikes out a lot. However, Davis managed to keep his strikeouts to a reasonable level in the minors (again, despite being young for the league) without sacrificing power. Thus, he was able to hit over .300 in the minors.

While Davis may not ever hit .300 in the majors (at least not next year), don’t expect Davis to fall into the low batting average category occupied by the likes of Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard. Davis hit .285 as a 22-year-old in the majors, an impressive feat for any 22-year-old, but even more impressive for a guy who also slugged nearly .600! While he did strike out in 30% of his plate appearances, he also hit the ball extremely hard when he made contact, posting a line-drive percentage of 25.5%. Thus, his corresponding .353 BABIP – while certainly very high – is not out of line with expectations. This line-drive percentage is unlikely to remain quite so high, and his BABIP may fall somewhat, but it’s not unreasonable to expect Davis to maintain a rather high BABIP next year as well.

Furthermore, Davis’s power is completely legitimate, and very rare to find. His uppercut swing produces more fly balls than ground balls – an excellent sign for a power hitter – and it’s simply incredibly rare to find a young hitter with such a track record of power. Davis hit 20.5% of his fly balls for homers, and there’s no reason that this can’t continue next year, given his amazing raw power. Furthermore, Davis plays in one of the best home ballparks for power – especially left-handed power – in baseball, which should further increase his raw numbers.

Finally, it looks as if Davis will qualify at third base next season (as well as first base), thereby increasing his value even more. He’s surrounded by an excellent lineup, and should have plenty of players on base in front of him, leading to a lot of RBI.

Chris Davis is a perfect storm of exciting potential: he has a stellar track record, a ridiculous amount of power, an excellent lineup around him, and a home park perfectly suited for his abilities. It’s not unreasonable to expect that Davis could be a top-5 fantasy third baseman in 2009.

The Atlanta Braves had grandiose visions of contention when the club acquired switch-hitting force Mark Teixeira from the Rangers in July of 2007. Atlanta surrendered a king’s ransom of prospects (Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones), but the Braves were intent on making a playoff run and then attempting to sign the former Georgia Tech star to a long term-deal.

That pennant chase never materialized in either 2007 or 2008, and when it became apparent that Teixeira was intent on testing the free agent waters, the Braves were faced with the decision to either let Teixeira walk and collect compensatory draft picks or re-package him and hope for the best in another deadline deal. Atlanta decided to take the immediate help, shipping Teixeira to the Angels in exchange for relief prospect Stephen Marek and first baseman Casey Kotchman. Kotchman was once himself a top prospect, and will be under team control for a few more seasons. The question that will be asked today, however, is this: is a couple more seasons of Kotchman at first really a virtue?

A career .325/.407/.493 hitter in the minor leagues, Kotchman has long been noted for his sweet left-handed swing. The 13th overall pick in the 2001 draft had some questions regarding his power ceiling (.168 ISO), but his combination of contact ability (10.6 K%) and patience (12.3 BB%) was enough for Baseball America to rank him very high on its annual top prospect lists:

Kotchman’s BA Love (overall ranking on top 100 prospects list):

2002: 22nd
2003: 13th
2004: 15th
2005: 6th

The 6-3, 215 pounder would get a small amount of playing time for the Angels in 2004 and 2005:

2004: 128 PA, .224/.289/.276, 5.7 BB%, 9.5 K%, .052 ISO, 17.9 LD%, .248 BABIP
2005: 143 PA, .278/.352/.484, 10.6 BB%, 14.3 K%, .206 ISO, 21.3 LD%, .277 BABIP

Kotchman turned in a very mild season at hitter-friendly Salt Lake City in 2005 (.289/.372/.441), but his performance in the big leagues that year gave hope that he was finally starting to find his power stroke.

Instead of breaking out, however, Kotchman would find himself on the sidelines for almost the entirety of the 2006 season. After a very sluggish start (.152/.221/.215 in 88 PA), he was diagnosed with Mono and did not play in the majors again after May 8th.

Now 24 and running his organization’s patience a little thin, Kotchman was faced with competition from Dallas McPherson and Robb Quinlan for the starting first base job in 2007. Kotchman got the nod, and turned in what appeared to be a very promising campaign. He batted .296/.372/.467, showing the doubles-and-walks approach that made him so highly regarded. Kotchman’s .172 ISO was adequate for a first baseman, and he actually walked more than he struck out (10.7 BB%, 9.7 K%). Still, there were some caution signs that called into question the repeatability of his performance. Kotchman’s 16 LD% was pretty darned low, meaning that his BABIP should have been about .280 instead of his actual .308 mark. Adjusting for that difference, his line “should” have been .268/.344/.429. Also, his groundball rate was very high for a player at a power position (50.6 GB%).

Kotchman’s performance did indeed take a turn for the worse in 2008, as he hit a middle infielder-like .272/.328/.410 between the Angels and the Braves. His walk rate dipped considerably (6.4 BB%), though his K rate fell to a career-low 7.4%. Kotchman’s ISO was a paltry .137; only Daric Barton and Ryan Garko exhibited less sock from the first base position. Continuing a career-long trend, Kotchman hit groundballs at an alarming clip for a man playing a power-oriented position. His 52.7 groundball percentage was the 9th-highest among all qualified major league players.

For the sake of comparison, let’s take a look at the five guys ranked directly in front of and directly behind Kotchman in terms of GB%. In addition to their groundball rates, I included their baserunning scores from Bill James Online. The stat measures a player’s total adeptness on the basepaths: how well the player advances from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, and 1st to home compared to the league averages, as well as how much value the player brings in the stolen base department (only high-percentage base thieves receive credit).

Ryan Theriot 56.6 GB% (+10)
Delmon Young 55.2 GB% (-3)
Michael Bourn 53.9 GB% (+27)
Fred Lewis 53.9 GB% (+13)
Cristian Guzman 52.9 GB% (-4)
Casey Kotchman 52.7 GB% (-22)
Jacoby Ellsbury 51.7 GB% (+40)
Hunter Pence 51.7 GB% (-13)
Willy Taveras 51.5 GB% (+70)(!)
Russell Martin 51.1 GB% (+14)
Randy Winn 51.1 GB% (+41)

One of these things is not like the others. Okay, Young (whom we’ve covered before) and Pence don’t really belong either, but the overwhelming majority of the players who often chop the ball into the dirt have the speed and baserunning prowess to make it a viable strategy. Putting the ball on the ground isn’t a bad idea if you’re a burner, but when you’re a slow-footed first baseman who might not be able to beat the beer vendor down the base line, it’s probably not sound strategy to hit grounders at a rate commensurate to Jacoby Ellsbury.

Kotchman will turn 26 this offseason and still may have some development left, but it is looking increasingly unlikely that he will make good on the high hopes that prospect mavens had for him a few years back. He plays a slick first base (+13 in John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system), but an underpowered player at a premium offensive position just isn’t an asset. The average major league first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 this past season. Realistically, that’s about the best that one could hope for from Kotchman this upcoming season, and even that sort of line would entail significant improvement in his walk rate and a decrease in his number of groundballs hit. I think we may need to revise Ernest Thayer’s classic baseball poem:

The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Mudville— mighty Casey has grounded out.

Ever since the Kansas City Royals drafted him 14th overall in the 2004 amateur entry draft, Billy Butler has been known for his prodigious hitting skills. The 6-1, 240 pounder started off his professional career as a third baseman, but his lack of lateral agility forced a move across the diamond to first base. Even over there, Butler is a charter member of the Jason Giambi close-your-eyes-and-fall School of First Basemen. But it’s his bat that we want to focus on.

Butler has essentially made a mockery out of minor league pitching, compiling a stunning .336/.416/.561 career line in five seasons. While demonstrating ample power (.225) and patience (13.3 BB%), Butler has also managed to strike out just 17.4% of the time, an impressive number for a guy with plenty of juice in his bat.

The 22 year-old spent parts of the 2007 and 2008 seasons with the Royals, and has compiled a .282/.334/.420 line in 838 PA. He hasn’t been quite as patient in the majors to this point (7.2 BB%), but he has managed to whiff in just 12.3% of his at-bats and has made contact within the strike zone 91.7% of the time (the league average from 2005-2007 was about 88%). Butler’s .137 ISO strikes one as pretty tame considering his minor league pedigree, and combined with the very low K rate seems to point to a contact-oriented approach that is sacrificing something in the power department. To this point in his big league career, Butler has been chopping the ball into the dirt regularly:

2006: 46.7 GB%
2007: 48.8 GB%

That 2008 figure was the 10th highest groundball rate among AL batters with at least 450 PA. Putting the ball on the grass that often is an okay strategy if you have ample speed (like Carl Crawford, who ranks directly behind Butler at 48.6%), but it’s certainly not advisable for a plodding DH-type.

While Butler has already shown that he can demolish southpaws (.340/.398/.585), he’s had his fair share of issues with same-side pitching (.256/.304/.345 vs. righties). He also showed a pronounced split in the minors, but that was more the product of his cartoonishly good performance versus lefties (.403/.491/.781 in 278 AB) than any particular difficulties with right-handers (.307/.374/.493 in 992 AB). Expect his numbers versus righties to improve significantly moving forward.

While Butler’s power hasn’t quite translated to the major league level yet, it’s important to remember that he was an absolute hitting machine in the minors, with the strength to drive the ball over the fence and the pure hitting ability to spray line drives all over the field. The Bill James Handbook is a fan, as Butler’s 2009 projection comes in at .295/.357/.460. That’s pretty useful, and as a guy who will just turn 23 in April, Butler has a ton of development time ahead of him. If he sacrifices some of that contact ability in order to put more of a charge into the ball (and lower that groundball rate), Butler could emerge as an elite hitter as soon as this upcoming season.

If you want a secret source of power for your NL-only 2009 fantasy teams look no further than Dallas McPherson. The former top third base prospect with the Los Angels Angels, whose career was beset by injuries, rejuvenated his career in 2008 by blasting 42 home runs for Triple-A Albuquerque. His ISO was a Ryan Howard-like at .344. His 2008 triple-slash numbers were .275/.380/.618.

McPherson, who profiles as a MLB first baseman, will be 28 in 2009 and in his prime. Florida has an opening at first base – unless they shift Dan Uggla over from second base or decide to go with rookie Gaby Sanchez. If McPherson comes into spring training in 2008-form, he should have every opportunity to do his best poor-man’s Howard impression (or worst-case scenario… Russell Branyan), which will include a low batting average, a ton of strikeouts… but also a healthy number of walks and power, power, and more power. Including his 11 September 2008 at-bats, McPherson has a career MLB line of .245/.298/.458 in 371 at-bats.

This kind of left-handed power does not grow on trees. At Triple-A in 2008, McPherson launched his 42 homers in 448 at-bats, while also posting rates of 14.5 BB% and 37.5 K%. An encouraging sign from this past season is that McPherson stole 14 bases – in 20 attempts – which suggests his back injuries truly are a thing of the past. The former second round draft pick still struggles against left-handed pitching and hit just .231/.320/.537 against southpaws in Triple-A. He also hits much better when he is ahead in the count (.400), than he does when he’s in the hole (.136)… suggesting his approach could still use a little work (grip-and-rip doesn’t work well with two strikes).

Talk about saving the best for last. Reds first baseman Joey Votto batted .382 with a .440 on-base percentage in August and hit nine home runs and posted a .723 slugging percentage in September. Those second half numbers made him a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate but do they make him an elite player for 2009?

Votto out-performed four of the five projection systems on FanGraphs, failing only to exceed the on-base and slugging percentage marks predicted by Bill James. Of course, Votto exceeded the playing time guess from James, so a case could be make he exceeded everyone’s expectations in 2008. He succeeded thanks to a 25.2 percent line drive rate, the fourth-best mark in the majors. He also struck out at a lower rate than most predicted. That’s a nice combination and it helped Votto across the board.

But as good as the season was, Votto was still a lower-echelon first baseman. Yes, he hit nearly .300 but 10 first basemen batted .289 or higher. Sure, Votto hit 24 home runs but that ranked 14th among first basemen. The only fantasy category he was in the upper half among his positional peers was steals, where he totaled seven and finished tied for fourth with two other players.

There’s no doubt that Votto will be a fun guy to root for on your fantasy team, but unless you think his August average (when he had a .422 BABIP) and/or his September home run rate (HR per every 10.44 AB) is his true talent level, one could make a case for at least 10 other first basemen that should be drafted ahead of him. If a fellow owner wants to draft him in the top 10 rounds or bid $20 or more on Votto, wish him luck and focus on another player from this deep fantasy position.

The Kansas City Royals and GM Dayton Moore ostensibly filled a hole this past week, picking up slugging first baseman Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins in exchange for string-bean righty Leo Nunez. I suppose that when your everyday first baseman has been Ross Gload (-1.27 WPA/LI), just about anyone starts looking like an attractive alternative. And, superficially, Jacobs looks like quite an upgrade. 32 home runs…93 RBI..what’s not too like? Well, quite a bit, when you get right down to it. Here are some of the reasons to avoid Mike Jacobs on draft day:

He’s allergic to walks: Here are Jacobs’ OBP’s in his three years as a regular: .325, .319, .299. A sub-.300 OBP is terrible for anyone, but it’s downright criminal from a first baseman whose entire value is derived from his bat. Already 28, Jacobs’ discipline does not figure to improve much. In fact, he’s actually becoming more of a hacker as he ages. Here are his outside swing percentages (O-Swing%) over the past three seasons:

2006: 25%
2007: 29.98%
2008: 33.99%

While some guys with a high-contact skill set can get away with chasing bad balls (think Vladimir Guerrero), Jacobs is not one of those players. Which brings us to our second point..

Increasing K rate, lowering contact rate: Jacob’s strikeout rates from ’06 to ’08: 22.4%, 23.7%, 24.9%. His contact rate is also on a three-year decline:

2006: 75.81%
2007: 75.36%
2008: 73.88%

That 2008 contact number rates as the 10th-worst in the majors among qualified batters. While many of the players toward the bottom of that list have been productive (for example, Adam Dunn and Jack Cust), Jacobs does not have the walk rate to make up for the low batting average like Dunn and Cust do.

He needs to be platooned: While Jacobs has at least managed a decent .269/.329/.521 line versus righties, he has had all sorts of issues with lefties. Southpaws have silenced him to the tune of .235/.275/.414 in his career. How many fantasy teams can afford a platoon first baseman?

While Jacobs may seem like an upgrade for the Royals at first glance, he has plenty of blemishes in his game that put a significant dent in his value. Add in the fact that Jacobs is due for a pay hike through arbitration, and this deal looks downright odd for Kansas City.

Perhaps the biggest loser in this deal is fellow Royals first baseman Kila Kaaihue. The lefty batter clubbed 37 home runs and drew 104 walks between AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha in 2008, but his role now figures to be minimal. Which I guess begs the question, did they really need to go outside of the organization to find Gload’s replacement?

Mike Jacobs: walk-averse, strikeout-prone, and helpless versus left-handers. Don’t be like Dayton: avoid Mike Jacobs on draft day (I’m David Golebiewski, and I approve this message).