Archive for First Base

Justin Morneau checks in with an ADP of 20 in the latest rankings from Mock Draft Central. That makes him a mid-to-late second-round pick. However, it also ranks him as the sixth-best first base option for fantasy players. Should a fantasy owner really spend a second-round pick on the sixth-best option at a non-OF, non-P position?

Morneau has a first and a second-place finish in the MVP race in two of the past three years, thanks in large part to big RBI numbers. Those RBI numbers are obviously quite valuable in fantasy, but they have the disadvantage of being relatively unreliable. After having 130 RBIs in 2006, Morneau “slumped” to 111 in 2007.

It is always nice if big RBI men can buttress their fantasy case with consistent production in other categories. One of the big arguments for Ryan Howard is you know he is going to give you HR production. But with Morneau, we see inconsistent production in average and declining HR rates.

In 2006, Morneau had a FB% of 40.6 percent and his HR/FB rate was 16.4 percent. Last year those numbers were 37.6 and 11.2, respectively. After hitting six home runs in April, Morneau hit just 17 in the following five months.

Late in September, Morneau disclosed that he had been playing with a sore knee. It certainly could help explain the declining power production but it was not serious enough for him to miss a single game last year.

However, if you want something to feel optimistic about, Morneau underwent laser eye surgery in November. Perhaps a healthy knee from an off-season of rest and improved vision will allow Morneau to get back to his 34-HR, .321-AVG ways of 2006. Otherwise, you might want to hold off on drafting a bottom-second-tier first baseman with your second-round pick.

The Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly made an offer to free agent first baseman Kevin Millar, formerly of the Baltimore Orioles, and best known for his time in Boston. The offer is believed to be a minor league deal with the idea of employing him as a part-time bench player. That certainly is the correct role for Millar, a good clubhouse guy, at this point in his career.

Millar’s offensive numbers have been plummeting for the past three seasons and he is of no use to Fantasy Baseball owners, even in AL-only leagues. In the past three seasons, his line has gone from .272/.374/.437 to .254/.365/.420 to .234/.323/.394. Interestingly, his playing time increased each season from 503 to 562 to 610 plate appearances, which says a lot (and nothing good) about the situation in Baltimore. On the plus side, Millar’s power has remained constant (right around .160 ISO) for the past three years. He also takes his healthy share of walks (13.8 BB% in 2007, 11.8 BB% in 2008).

The problem with this potential signing, from a Fantasy perspective, is the negative impact it could have on the playing times of better players. Millar is a first baseman who also spends time at designated hitter. That means he will cut into the playing time of first baseman Lyle Overbay. It also, more importantly, cuts into the playing time of young, promising outfielders Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Lind is more advanced than Snider and could have a fairly productive season, if allowed to play everyday, with the occasional rest against a tough southpaw. Snider has the potential to be a massive star. He will not achieve those lofty heights in 2009 (in part due to his affinity for the strikeout), but there is a danger that he could end up sitting on the bench a fair bit, or find himself on the bus to Triple-A Las Vegas for a good portion of the season. Toronto is not going to contend in 2009, so the club might as well field its young, promising players.

Some guys get all the breaks and some guys get no breaks. Joe Koshansky of the Colorado Rockies falls squarely into the latter group, thanks in no small part to the presence of Mr. Rockie Todd Helton.

Koshansky has slugged 83 home runs in the past three seasons, including 21 in Triple-A in 2007 and 31 in Triple-A in 2008. The 26-year-old first baseman has also shown the ability to hit for a respectable average in Triple-A, having posted lines of .295/.380/.490 in 2007 and .300/.380/.600 in 2008. His ISO was an eye-popping .300 (anyone with an ISO above .200 is considered a power hitter). The left-handed hitter was no softy against southpaws in 2008. He managed a line of .310/.372/.612 in 116 at-bats.

The former sixth round drafted pick out of the University of Virginia, who signed as a senior selection, is running out of time to prove himself. He’ll be 27 in May, which is about the time power hitters tend to hit their stride. Koshansky is roughly the same build as Richie Sexson (although he’s about four inches shorter than the former Cleveland Indians first baseman). Sexson lost his mojo at the age of 32.

Koshansky’s biggest weakness would be the strikeout. He has posted strikeout rates in the past three seasons of 26.8%, 25.7%, and 34.6%. The first baseman has also begun to earn a bit of a reputation as a possible Quad-A slugger thanks to his struggles at the Major League level in the past two seasons, albeit in a small sample size. Koshansky has a career line of .180/.236/.440 with three home runs in 50 at-bats. Both the CHONE and Marcel projection systems see Koshansky as a .250 hitter. CHONE sees Koshansky as having the ability to slug 25 home runs at the Major League level with regular playing time. Those numbers are not outstanding, but there are a few teams in Major League Baseball that could use that kind of power production.

At 35, Helton’s best days as a power hitter are behind him after managing home run totals of 15, 17, and seven in the past three seasons. Even so, Helton is still a .300 hitter (the injury-marred 2008 season aside) and, in his last two healthy seasons in 2006 and 2007, he drove in a total of 207 runs. He also scored 172 runs. Coming off a poor season due to injuries, and with three more years plus an option remaining on his contract totaling just shy of $60 million, Helton is not going anywhere.

It’s also disconcerting for Koshansky’s future in Colorado that he did not receive more opportunities in 2008 after Helton appeared in just 83 games. The Louisiana native was given just eight starts at first base last season and the club moved third baseman Garrett Atkins across the diamond to allow Ian Stewart the opportunity to play everyday at the hot corner during Helton’s time off.

Clearly, if Koshansky is going to earn a fair shot at a starting role at the Major League level it is not going to come in Colorado. Teams that could use a first baseman or designated hitter include Washington, Florida, Seattle, Los Angeles (AL), and Baltimore (although that club has a crowded outfield picture).

On May 26th, Carlos Delgado went 0-for-3 with a sac fly, dropping his line to .215/.294/.387 for the season. The people who were not calling for his outright release were counting down the days until the end of the season when the Mets could refuse his option and look to fill first base from free agency.

Delgado got a day off on the 27th and from that following day until the end of the year, his batting line was .295/.378/.576 over 482 plate appearances. Many people want to point his resurgence to when the club fired Willie Randolph, but Delgado’s hot streak started nearly three weeks before Randolph got the ax.

Regardless, many fantasy players still view Delgado as a question mark. They are leery of him maintaining the production that he showed over two-thirds of the season in 2008 for a full year in 2009 when he will be 37-years old. But there are several reasons for optimism surrounding Delgado.

One might assume that his BABIP was unsustainable during his hot streak. But in the second half of the season it sat at .295 and for the year it was .284 or 25 points below his career average. Furthermore, neither his BB% (10.7) nor K% (20.7) were out of line with what he’s done the past few years.

The main reason Delgado’s 2008 stats seem mind boggling is that he had such a poor year in 2007. That season, he was recovering from right wrist surgery performed following the 2006 season and was also adjusting to being a first-time father. When his numbers suffered, it was easy to point out his age and say that he was just winding down as a player, a point seemingly bolstered by his start to the 2008 season.

But let’s remove his 2007 line and compare the fantasy stats Delgado posted in 2006 and 2008 and see how they compare to one another.

2006: .265-38-114-89-0
2008: .271-38-115-96-0

Those lines seem perfectly compatible and while Delgado’s 2006 season represented a decline from the previous year, he also suffered a 62-point drop in BABIP that season.

The big difference between 2006 and 2008 for Delgado was his batted ball profile. While his HR/FB rate was nearly identical – 22.9 percent in ’06 compared to 23.3 percent last year – Delgado traded fly balls for line drives. Last year he had a 24.5 percent LD% while posting a 33.9 percent FB%. In 2006, those numbers were 17.9 percent and 43.4 percent, respectively.

One might expect that last year’s big season for line drives would have resulted in a big bump in BABIP but as noted earlier it was just .284 as compared to .276 in 2006. Perhaps a reason for this lower-than-expected BABIP is the exaggerated shift that teams deploy against Delgado, as they move their shortstop to the right side of second base when he comes to the plate.

That makes the big question whether Delgado can maintain his HR output while hitting so few fly balls. His FB% put him between Johnny Damon and Brandon Phillips on the leaderboard, not the first two players who jump to mind when one thinks of power hitters. Of course, Delgado’s HR/FB rate ranked fourth in MLB.

But the fact that the 6.2 percent drop in fly balls from 2006 to 2008 was more than made up for by the 6.6 percent increase in line drives is a good sign. Delgado still has the bat speed to make solid contact. It would be much more worrisome if the line drive percentage dropped and the fly balls increased.

Furthermore, a 24.5 percent line drive rate is not unheard of for Delgado. He posted a 27 percent rate in 2003, the second year which we have the data. In those seven years, Delgado has a LD% over 20 percent four times.

One thing fantasy players should keep in mind about Delgado is his new home ballpark. There have been wild speculations about it being either a “launching pad” or a “Grand Canyon”. One thing we do know is that Delgado never hit for a high average in Shea.

Here are his splits in his three years with the Mets:

H: .237 (190-801) with 48 HR (21 in 2008)
R: .282 (242-859) with 52 HR

Even if the new park favors pitchers, it would be hard for it to depress Delgado’s numbers farther, as most players perform better in their home parks. And the chance exists that it will actually help instead of cutting 45 points off his batting average.

So, fantasy players should feel confident about taking Delgado’s 2008 numbers at face value. He was not particularly lucky, his numbers stack up well with his previous output, especially once you remove his dreadful 2007 numbers and the move to the new park should not be a concern as he never hit particularly well at Shea, anyway.

Of course, first base is stacked in fantasy so it is not wise to make Delgado one of the top players picked at the position. But last year he ranked ninth among first basemen with a $22.22 dollar value and he should approach those numbers again in 2009.

Kevin Youkilis has made quite the ascension during his professional career. A mildly regarded prospect coming out of the University of Cincinnati, Youkilis saw 242 other players taken ahead of him before the Boston Red Sox came calling in the 8th round of the 2001 amateur draft. The former Bearcat quickly became known for possessing otherworldly plate discipline, posting a .512 OBP during his New York-Penn League debut in the summer of ’01. Despite that eye and the subsequent “Greek Good of Walks” nickname that came with it, Youkilis had his fair share of detractors: be it his conditioning, advanced age or lack of thump while playing a power position, many questioned his ability to become more than a complementary player at the major league level.

The career .300/.444/.441 minor league hitter split the 2004 and 2005 seasons between Boston and Pawtucket before finally getting the opportunity at everyday playing time in the big leagues in 2006, at the age of 27. The ever-judicious Youkilis drew walks at a 13.8% clip during the ’06 season, posting a .357 wOBA and a .279/.381/.429 line. Youk followed that up with a .373 wOBA in 2007, improving to the tune of .288/.390/.453 while posting a 12.7 BB%. By this point, the scouting reports on Youkilis looked pretty accurate: He would draw plenty of walks and contrbute to a quality offensive attack, but the chances of him ever anchoring a lineup seemed remote.

Then came Youkilis’ 2008 campaign. The Greek God of Walks suddenly appeared to acquire the strength of Zeus, pummeling the baseball and popping as many home runs in ’08 (29) as he had in the prior two seasons combined. After posting a tame .149 ISO in 2006 and a slightly better mark of .165 in 2007, the 29 year-old raised that figure to .257 in 2008. Youkils’ ISO tied newly-minted Ray Pat Burrell for the 12th-highest mark among all qualified batters, and Youk’s .402 wOBA also ranked 12th, sandwiched between Hanley Ramirez and David Wright. While the 6-1, 220 pounder is still fairly patient (with a 10.3 BB% in ’08), he has become increasingly aggressive over the course of his major league career:

2006: 15.1 O-Swing%, 55.7 Z-Swing%, 36.7 Swing%
2007: 17.4 O-Swing%, 58.6 Z-Swing%, 39.5 Swing%
2008: 22.3 O-Swing%, 59.9 Z-Swing%, 42.4 Swing%

Keep in mind that we’re speaking in relative terms here: the average O-Swing% has been around 25% over the past two seasons, so Youkilis still goes fishing outside of the strike zone less than most. But, Youkilis has gone from uber-patient to more willing to go after an offering that he likes, be it in or out of the zone. Whether this trend is related to his increase in power is debatable, but perhaps he’s more apt to attack a fat pitch or even a hittable pitch a little off the plate these days. Youk’s plate discipline numbers, lowered walk rate and power increase suggest that he has traded some free passes for some extra-base hits.

Following his monster ’08 campaign, Youkilis has apparently cashed in: the lukewarm prospect who signed for just $12,000 has reportedly inked a four-year, $40 million extension with an option for the 2013 season. Youkilis had two years of arbitration eligibility left, so the deal buys out those two seasons as well as two years of free agency. How does that deal stack up for the Sox?

Let’s assume that Youkilis keeps some, but not all of the offensive gains he made this past season. Marcel’s 2009 projection looks appropriate: a .287/.377/.477 line with a .370 wOBA. Adding up Youkilis’ offensive value (about +18 runs), defensive prowess (he’s been about a +6 run defender when you weigh his last three seasons) and then account for his positional adjustment and the replacement level baseline, Youkilis projects to be worth about 3.2 wins in 2009.

An arbitration-eligible player tends to earn about 40% of his fair market value during his first season of eligibility, 60% the second and 80% in his final year. Here’s how much Youkilis (in his second year of arbitration eligibility) projects to be worth using a $4.5 million/WAR rate, if we assume his performance stays pretty static. Let’s assume he stays as a 3.2 WAR performer during his age 30 and 31 seasons, and then declines 5% in each of 2011 (age 32) and 2012 (age 33).

2009 (60% of fair market value): $8.64M ($14.4M free agent value multiplied by .6)
2010 (80% of fair market value): $11.5M ($14.4M multiplied by .8)
2011 (FA; full value, 3 WAR): $13.5M
2012 (FA; full value, 2.9 WAR): $13.05M
Total: $46.7M

Even if we assume that Youkilis gives back some of his power, sticks at first base and declines somewhat during the last two years of the pact, this deal looks like a winner for the Red Sox.

The terms of the contract might actually be more favorable still: a couple of readers have pointed out that Youkilis is likely to shift across the diamond to third base to make room for Lars Anderson. Youk has been a very solid defender at third in slightly less than 1,100 innings. Even if one is pessimistic and feels that he’ll be just an average defender at the hot corner from 2010-2012, Youkilis will increase his value to Boston if he shifts up the defensive spectrum:

2009 (60% of fair market value, 3.2 WAR): $8.64M ($14.4M free agent value multiplied by .6)
2010: (80% of fair market value, at 3B, 4.05 WAR): $14.6M ($18.2M free agent value multiplied by .8)
2011: (FA; full value, at 3B, 3.8 WAR): $17.1M
2012: (FA; full value, at 3B, 3.65 WAR): $16.4M
Total: $56.75M

If Youkilis can play an average third base from 2010-2012, then this deal will give the Sox $16.75M in surplus value (production minus his salary of $40M) instead of $6.7M at first base.

Kevin Youkilis may be acclaimed for his ability to work the count, but he has gradually become more willing to take the bat off of his shoulder and has seen his power production increase each season of his big league career. Perhaps he won’t outslug Mark Teixeira again next season, but Youkilis has proven himself to be far more than just a spare part in the big leagues.

Considering most people look primarily at the previous year’s statistics when drafting a player, one place to gain an edge on the competition is to attempt to put last year’s statistics in context. By this, I do not necessarily mean the run-scoring environment the player played in, but rather why their statistics seemed to vary from their usual numbers. To do this, I will start with a series of good luck and bad luck players. The luck comes in the way their batted balls in play are turned into outs or hits. Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton did some great research on defining how we should look at BABIP and what drives it.

Over the next week or so, I’ll go through some players that were on the extreme ends of the luck spectrum with the idea that those players who were very lucky last year will probably come back to earth and those that were unlucky are due to breakout. This can be very helpful when deciding to draft one player or another. The first player in the series is Ryan Howard.

Last year, Ryan Howard had arguably his least productive year as a Phillies player (don’t tell the BBWAA). His BA was a down to a career-low of .251. His OPS was also the lowest of his career at .881. He maintained his ability to hit for power and drive in runs (48 HR and 146 RBI), but his average made him a slightly better version of Adam Dunn to fantasy players. He usually more closely resembled a top 10 fantasy player.

Looking at his new xBABIP and his BABIP we see where some of his batting average was lost. He seemed to be incredibly unlucky on balls put into play.

His BABIP of .289 was .019 below his new xBABIP of .308. He was robbed of roughly 7 hits, and his average should have been closer to .262. While this difference doesn’t seem all that great, it really is. Every single has a large effect on OPS as they are double-counted in the formula because your OBP is increased by one more time reaching base and SLG increases by one more additional base gained. The SLG is even more affected by these missed hits because if they turn into 2B or 3B (pretty unlikely with Howard) they could add 2 or 3 bases.

In Howard’s case, if you add these 7 hits broken down the way his hits were over the season his OPS goes up to .906. His slash line would increase to .262/.349/.557. He might have also seen an increase in his league-leading RBI totals. If you play in almost any league Ryan Howard is a good player to have on your fantasy team. He may be able to had for a more reasonable price than in years past because of his “down year” last year.

It was a rough couple of years in 2006 and 2007 for Aubrey Huff. In ’06, he continued his downward trend from his 30-HR, 100-RBI peak and ended up with just 21 HR and 66 RBIs while splitting time with Tampa Bay and Houston. Then he signed a three-year deal with the Orioles and saw his HR output drop to 15. Perhaps rock bottom occurred when following the 2007 season he appeared on the Bubba the Love Sponge radio show and trashed the city of Baltimore.

But then everything went right for Huff in 2008. A notoriously slow starter, he didn’t bury himself early and then went on a hot streak that lasted from the end of May through mid-September. Overall he finished with a .304-32-108-96-4 line, which made him a top-25 fantasy hitter.

So, how did he do it? Huff’s BB% and K% were right around career averages and his BABIP of .314 was not out of line with previous efforts (it was .310 the year before). He traded some ground balls for fly balls and line drives and established a career-best 41.7 percent fly ball rate. His HR/FB rate rebounded to 14.9 percent, up over six points from 2007 but just 0.6 percent above his lifetime average.

This means we have a once-solid hitter returning to previous levels. Huff seems like he has been around forever, but he turned 32 in the off-season. Is it reasonable to expect him to repeat his 2008 performance? How do others see him so far this year?

In the January 5th ADP report from Mock Draft Central, Huff checks in at number 83, considerably below his 2008 final rankings. He is behind Carlos Pena (67) and Derrek Lee (50) among others.

The nice thing about Huff is that he gives you flexibility, having played enough to qualify at both 1B (24) and 3B (33) in most leagues. That makes him more valuable than either Pena or Lee if they put up similar numbers.

Every major mark that Huff put up last year was in line with previous production, other than his FB%. And even if that regresses completely back to his career average, it still leaves him as a 28-HR player if he repeats the rest of his 2008 numbers. That would still leave him as a top-50 fantasy hitter.

Right now it appears that Huff is being undervalued in fantasy drafts.

When Jason Giambi took his on-base skills and gargantuan power from the Bay to the Bronx after the 2001 season, he was the recipient of a mammoth seven-year, $120 million contract. But let’s be honest: it was strange to see this long-locked, tattooed fellow transform into a clean-cut, cordial Yankee.

While the mustachioed one managed to rage against the machine as much as grooming requirements allowed, his time with the Yankees was something of a mixed bag. Giambi posted a wOBA in excess of .400 in four of his seven seasons with the Yankees, but as the back loaded portion of his pact kicked in, his value to the club did not match up to the bloated salary commitment. Despite compiling a combined .383 wOBA over the 2006-2008 seasons, Giambi made $67.2 million while providing the Bombers with approximately $26.5 million in performance value.

Giambi made a whopping $23.4 million in 2008, but he’ll make less than a fifth of that sum after coming to terms with the A’s on a one-year, $4.5 million deal with a $5M option for the 2010 season. While Giambi’s salary had become cumbersome in recent years, he looks like an outright bargain at that price. The soon-to-be 38 year-old may no longer be the same guy who slugged near .650 over his last two seasons with Oakland in 2000 and 2001, but he can still provide some value to fantasy owners while invigorating a rapidly improving A’s lineup.

In 2008, Giambi rebounded from an injury-shortened 2007 campaign to post a .247/.373/.502 line, with a .377 wOBA in 565 PA. As always, the Giambino drew a boatload of walks (14.2 BB%) and still managed to put a pretty solid charge into the baseball (.255 ISO). That ISO figure tied Houston’s Lance Berkman for the 14th-best mark in the majors.

Interestingly, Giambi has actually become a little more of a free swinger as he has advanced in age. He’s still a very disciplined batsman, but Jason’s Outside-Swing% has climbed in each of the past four seasons, from an incredibly low 10.2% in 2005 to 19.2% in 2008, and he has increased his percentage of strikes swung at from 60.8% in ’05 to 63.2% in ’08. The increased number of swings seem to have had a slight negative effect on his walk rate. Still, when you’re “only” drawing a free pass 14-15% of the time, you’re doing quite well. Giambi tied former-Athletic-now-Yankee Nick Swisher for the 14th-best walk rate in the big leagues.

Granted, Giambi will be leaving a wonderful environment for left-handed power hitters (per the Bill James Handbook, Yankee Stadium has a 3-year HR park factor of 120 for lefties) for less-inviting terrain: McAfee Coliseum’s HR park factor for southpaw batters over the past three years is exactly neutral, at 100. However, even accounting for the lefty-friendly dimensions of his home ballpark, Giambi’s offensive performance in 2008 was 21.5 runs above that of an average hitter. That ranked him just outside the top 10 among first baseman.

Giambi’s signing also has the likely consequence of sending one of the least productive first baseman in ’08, Daric Barton, back to the minors (Barton was -7.2 runs compared to an average batter). Though many question his power ceiling, there’s still reason to hope for better things from the 23 year-old down the line. A career .299/.411/.455 hitter in the minors, Barton is young enough to put his ugly start behind him and emerge as a solid cog for the A’s down the road. Still, the Athletics may be closer to contention than many realize, and the difference between Daric’s 2008 showing (0.4 WAR) and Giambi’s (2.6 WAR) was substantial.

Jason Giambi may no longer be the unstoppable force that annihilated American League pitching earlier in the decade, but he still possesses a patient and potent stick that should be of use to both the A’s and fantasy squads. In both real baseball and fantasy, position scarcity matters; it’s far easier to find a suitable player at a position like first base than it is to find, say, a good shortstop. Once the top-tier first baseman are gone, your best bet is to wait on a guy like Giambi.

Hank Blalock is really good…when he plays at home.

In his career, Blalock has hit .306/.375/.531 with 77 homers in 397 games. On the road, Blalock has hit .244/.299/.402 with 50 homers in 390 games.

Fortunately for Blalock, he is currently still a member of the Texas Rangers. Although the Rangers have many corner types, Blalock appears to be in line for a lot of plate appearances, probably at first base (assuming Chris Davis can handle third base). If he plays every day for the Rangers, he can probably continue to put up decent numbers – the type of numbers he has put up over the last 2-3 years (think ~.270 with ~25 homers or so). For those of you who play in leagues with daily updates, you can take advantage of Blalock’s drastic splits, benching him for road games but making sure that he’s in your lineup for all games in Arlington (this could work in leagues with weekly updates too, but it won’t work nearly as well).

However, Blalock’s numbers have been artificially inflated by his home park, and if he is traded his overall (and fantasy) numbers will suffer. While he may not be as bad as his road numbers indicate (after all, most players play slightly worse on the road, and his road numbers don’t take into account any games in Arlington), his overall numbers will suffer significantly if he’s traded to, say, Minnesota (or just about anywhere else, really).

In my experience, Hank Blalock’s reputation exceeds Hank Blalock’s production. Back in 2004, Blalock hit 32 homers; since then, he’s hit 63 homers total. Blalock was the Next Big Thing after his 04 season, but he simply hasn’t lived up to his reputation, and he’s had plenty of opportunities to do so. While I will admit that Blalock has some upside, he’s so far removed from his excellent 2004 season and simply hasn’t shown any improvement (let alone any ability to replicate his 04 season). That, combined with his drastic home/road splits, makes me very wary.

Again, that’s not to say that Hank Blalock is without value – that’s simply untrue. The key is his perceived value – is he perceived as being more valuable than, say, Paul Konerko? Or Conor Jackson? Or Carlos Pena? I’d much rather have those three than Blalock, but some others in your league may disagree.

Don’t be afraid to have Blalock on your team. Just make sure you value him appropriately and don’t draft him too early.

Remember when Paul Konerko was an elite hitter? It wasn’t that long ago that the White Sox first baseman hit .313/.381/.551 with 35 homers. In fact, Konerko posted that line in 2006, after eclipsing the 40 homer mark in both 2004 and 2005.

Of course, one the tenets of baseball analysis is that hitters – especially one dimensional sluggers, tend to age rather rapidly. However, Konerko is only going to be 33 years old, and has shown signs that he may not have run out of steam entirely.

Last season, Konerko had a rather mediocre line of .240/.344/.438 with 22 homers in 122 games. However, as we will see, Konerko was struck with a bout of bad luck, and also showed significant signs of life towards the end of the season.

The first thing to note about Konerko’s 2008 was his poor luck with balls in play. His BABIP was a mere .247, much lower than his career average of .285. His line drive percentage remained high, at 21.5%, right in line with his career LD% of 21.4%. Furthermore, he struck out at the same rate as he has over the last five seasons (he struck out in 18.3% of his at bats in 2008 – his K rate has remained between 18% and 19% every year dating back to 2004), and he actually had the highest walk rate of his career as well.

According to the BABIP model I introduced with Chris Dutton, Konerko’s expected BABIP was .280 this year (incidentally, Konerko is a good example of a player for whom the “old” model of predicting BABIP – namely, adding .120 to line drive percentage – is a poor indicator of true BABIP, as our “new” model has consistently predicted Konerko’s BABIP to be far lower than the “old” model). The 15% difference between Konerko’s actual BABIP and his expected BABIP was the 14th biggest difference among all full-time players in 2008 – in other words, Konerko was extremely unlucky on balls in play.

Furthermore, Konerko’s 2008 was plagued with injury woes. Konerko strained his oblique and was put on the disabled list in June – he was hitting a paltry .215/.325/.368 with 8 homers at the time, so it’s very possible that Konerko tried to play through the injury before finally being placed on the DL (in fact, in the 30 games prior to the DL, Konerko hit only .202/.281/.330).

After coming back from the injury on July 8, Konerko hit like himself again. In the final 60 games of the season, Konerko posted a line of .267/.366/.514 with 14 homers – while striking out 37 times and drawing 30 walks. He suffered a sprained knee in September but managed to play well despite it; both the knee and oblique should be fully healthy in 2009.

At age 33, Konerko will remain an injury risk, and likely will not be able to perform at the same level that he did in his peak. However, rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. Konerko suffered from a tremendous amount of bad luck on balls in play that should regress next season, thus raising hit batting average.

Furthermore, although he may not hit 40 homers, he still has enough power to hit 30-35 bombs, and will be helped (as always) by the fly-ball-friendly confines of US Cellular Field. As Konerko demonstrated in the last three months of 2009, when healthy he can still be an offensive force. And he can probably be had relatively late in most drafts, as less-astute owners will assume that he’s washed up.

Paul Konerko is an excellent sleeper for fantasy baseball in 2009.