Archive for First Base

It’s getaway day for a long weekend, but I refuse to admit the summer is nearing an end. I’m holding on for dear life. Oh, and here are a couple players that should be on your waiver wire and might be interesting to you.

Yuniesky Betancourt, Royals (18% owned)
Long a laughing stock of baseball, Betancourt is getting some love recently. Longtime critic Joe Posnanki even tweeted the other day that his OPS+ was higher than Derek Jeter’s this year. How’s that for a drink-snarfing moment? Hopefully your league does not count OBP, because he still is walking only 3% of the time this year (3.2% career) and featuring a terrible .289 OBP. Then again, hopefully your league doesn’t count slugging percentage either (.432)… but hey, look at that, the average slugging percentage for shortstops in the American League this year is a paltry .362. So that’s what Betancourt is – a semi-slugger at a position full of limp noodles. In any case, he’s hitting .313 with eight home runs over the past month, so he’s hot. Who knows how long it will continue, but but his BABIP (.273) is still below his career norms (.287), and his line drive percentage, though not great, is decent (18.1%). Betancourt could run into a few home runs while your regular shortstop is hurt, and as much as it pains this skeptic to say it, he has some use in fantasy leagues. Maybe if Jeff Francouer was a shorstop, he would have use in fantasy leagues, too!

Nolan Reimold, Orioles (15% owned)
This is one of those writeups that may inspire a ‘why should we pick this guy up again’ comment. But it’s worth taking a look at a player that will get some playing time this September, whether because of Adam Jones and his wonky shoulder or because the team would like to know if they have the flexibility to trade Luke Scott this offseason. Playing time alone is fantasy gasoline, but the talent has to be the spark to really get the flame going. Earlier this season, Reimold was walking (10.7%) and striking out (24.7%) about the same as career rates (11.35% and 22.1% respectively), but his power had fallen off a cliff (.124 ISO, .174 career, .215 in the minor leagues). Then the team sent him down, and he put up a nasty .249/.364/.374 line that doesn’t inspire any confidence that he found what he was looking for. His .125 ISO down there looked like a middle infielders’ output. There was certainly some poor luck at play – his MinorLeagueSplits.com luck- and park-adjusted line reads a little better (.288/.397/.433) – but the power is still on the lam. Looking at his batted ball profile, his poor line drive percentage in the major leagues stands out (14.1%), but at least he puts the ball in the air and had many .200+ ISO minor league seasons before this year. At 27, he’s no longer as young as you might think, and his time to grab a regular role may be running out. He seems a best fit for a fantasy manager that is out of the running in a deeper keeper league and is looking for a final keeper. Maybe he turns it on in the final month, the team trades Scott in the off-season, and things all fall into place for a cheap outfielder with a little pop. The rest of us can pass, as those are a lot of hurdles for a big firstbaseman to jump before he’s a great option.

For those of you past your trade deadline, the waiver wire is increasingly important. At this point in the season, it’s also probably time to start thinking about particular statistics. A targeted push will make much more of a difference than an attempt to find across-the-board boosts. In that effort, here are some (slightly) one-dimensional players that should be interesting in the final weeks.

Peter Bourjos, Angels (1% owned)
It’s obvious that some people on the front of the site have a little mancrush on Bourjos. It’s irrational, but so are some aspects of Bourjos’ game. In a mere 17 games, he’s already accrued 5.2 UZR (a redonkulous 96.9 UZR/150 which leads the universe I’m pretty sure without checking). Also, Bourjos currently has an 8.6 four-factor speed score, which would lead baseball if he qualified. On the basis of those two aspects alone, he’ll have a pace in baseball… and a long leash. Long leashes are important when you are sporting a .202 BABIP on a team that doesn’t seem to care too much about advanced statistics. In particular, Bourjos is still playing every day because his glove is required, and he even strung together five hits in his last 18 at-bats, so deeper league stewards seeking stolen bases should select this speedster straight away. (Suffering succotash.)

Mitch Moreland, Rangers (1% owned)
It’s not terrible to be in a platoon if you’re the left-hander and are getting the bulk of the at-bats against right-handers, and that’s where Moreland finds himself. Moreland is also probably scraping the upper levels of his upside right now. A high BABIP (.359) is floating his batting average a little bit, but his walk rate (13.2%), strikeout rate (27.6%) and ISO (.190) are all in line with what might be expected from a man with his minor league walk rate (10%), strikeout rate (15.9%) and ISO (.196). In fact, as that BABIP regresses to the mean, he may actually strike out a little less often and keep his overall line looking very similar. Call him the anti-Chris Davis because he probably won’t put up the same strikeout and power totals as the former first sacker, but that doesn’t sound like denigration after all the troubles Davis went through. Jorge Cantu can’t quite cut it any more at first base with a .138 ISO and a poor walk rate, so this might just morph into a situation where Moreland starts and Cantu is a multi-position backup. With the injury concerns on a team that seems like a lock for the postseason, Moreland looks like he might get playing time either way.

Some notes on three first baseman to start your Tuesday.

Carlos Delgado | Red Sox | 1% Owned

Recently signed by the Red Sox, Delgado has already had a setback while playing for Triple-A Pawtucket. He had some stiffness in his back during Sunday’s game, leaving the game after only three innings. The 38-year old has only had fifteen trips to the plate in the minors, so we can’t judge how his bat looks. He has also admitted to his surgically repaired hip being sore, so he is going to need some things to go right for him to make it to the big leagues before sometime in mid-September. For those of you who stashed him when he signed with the Red Sox, he’s not going to be worth the trouble.

Mitch Moreland | Rangers | 0% Owned

After Chris Davis struggled (once again) in the majors, the Rangers turned to their next young first baseman. Rated as the Rangers seventh best prospect by both Marc Hulet and John Sickels, Moreland excelled in Triple-A while playing first base and right field. Just like he’s shown in 43 major league plate appearances, he won’t give you a ton of power, but will reach base at a good clip and smack line drives all over the field. He’s worth a pickup in AL-only leagues, and is a good option in keeper leagues.

Ryan Raburn | Tigers | 4% Owned

Raburn put up huge power numbers last year, but has fallen back down to earth this year. He’s caught fire in August, hitting four homers in 14 games, but his decision to hit fly balls in an attempt to hit home runs will end up killing his batting average. His second base and outfield eligibility helps his value, and he’s worth a shot in AL-only leagues if you are looking for some power.

If you asked fantasy players to name a player who performed well in a split, the vast majority of them would name Adam LaRoche and his play in the second half of the season. True to form, LaRoche has a .323/.366/.570 line in the second half. Before the All-Star break, LaRoche had a .787 OPS.

But it is another split that is really making things interesting for LaRoche. For the first time in his career, LaRoche is punishing LHP. Coming into this season he had a .251 lifetime AVG versus southpaws. Only in 2007, when he hit .299, did LaRoche have a good AVG versus lefties. While he had decent to good ISOs versus southpaws, he batted .250 or less in five of his six previous seasons.

It is a different story in 2010. Overall he has a .327/.369/.602 line in 122 PA versus lefties. Since the All-Star break he is 18-44 (.409) with 4 2B, 3B, 2 HR and 10 RBIs against LHP. That works out to a .682 SLG and a 1.117 OPS.

Most of the damage came in one game against Jonathon Niese, when he had 2 HR and 6 RBIs. But LaRoche has also fared well against Jonathan Sanchez and Cole Hamels in this stretch and had big games against Scott Olsen and Ross Detwiler, too.

Lefties out of the bullpen are still having typical success versus LaRoche, as he is 4-17 against southpaw relievers since the break, without an extra-base hit or RBI. He is 0-3 against both Joe Thatcher and Oliver Perez.

We know in the aggregate that most splits have no predictive value. The most likely answer to LaRoche’s success this year versus southpaws is that it is merely an outlier in his performance and that he will regress towards his lifetime .784 OPS.

However, given LaRoche’s history of consistently performing well in the second half, fantasy players would be remiss not to track his performance versus lefties the rest of the season. If he adds hitting southpaws to his resume, LaRoche should move up from last year’s 219 ADP.

Allen Craig, Cardinals (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

St. Louis’ eighth-round pick in the 2006 draft, Craig is a 6-2, 210 pound power hitter with dubious defensive skills. The 26-year-old was recently recalled by the Cards, and he’s expected to spot for Jon Jay against lefties in right field. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch Tweets that Craig will also get some starts at third base, now that David Freese is set for season-ending surgery on his right ankle.

Craig posted a .304/.371/.506 line in 593 plate appearances at the Double-A level, with an 8.3% walk rate, a 17.5 K% and a .202 ISO. The California Golden Bear’s bat has been more ferocious in Triple-A — a .322/.380/.551 triple-slash in 842 PA. Craig has an 8.1 BB%, a 19.9 K% and a .229 ISO in the Pacific Coast League. He’s not an especially patient hitter, though he can certainly put a charge into the ball.

What should be expected of Craig at the big league level? Minor League Splits shows that his hitting at Memphis in 2009 translates to a .278/.319/.440 line in the majors, and his 2010 performances equates to .277/.330/.452. CHONE has a similar projection (.276/.333/.448). While he won’t work a lot of walks and he’ll try Tony La Russa’s patience with his glove work, Craig looks like a cheap source of pop in NL-only leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Braves (5%)

Atlanta picked up Ankiel from the Royals at the trade deadline (along with Kyle Farnsworth) for LHP Tim Collins, OF Gregor Blanco and RHP Jesse Chavez. The 31-year-old will take over center field for the club while Nate McLouth tries to erase all memories of the past four months, Men in Black style.

Not that Ankiel is having himself a banner season, either. He missed over two-and-a-half months with a right quadriceps strain, just the latest in a litany of ailments that includes a torn left patellar tendon in ’06, a sore knee, shoulder and a sports hernia in ’08 and Achilles tendinitis, a groin strain and a shoulder injury suffered after colliding with the outfield fence in ’09. Ankiel’s got a .262/.319/.456 line in 113 PA so far, with a spike in ground ball rate (50.7%), K rate (32.7%) and pop ups (22.7 IF/FB%) masked by a .343 BABIP. Given the teeny sample, I wouldn’t put much emphasis on those totals.

ZiPS pegs Ankiel as a .254/.310/.458 hitter for the rest of 2010, while CHONE throws out a less sunny .247/.302/.445. There’s little certainty with the Braves’ new lefty slugger. He’s worth a gamble in NL-only formats, but Ankiel’s potential payoff isn’t worth the headaches for mixed leaguers.

After the post-deadline frenzy, here are some possible names on our wire that might help. We’ll try to hit one player each for leagues of differing depths to maximize our utility here.

Ryan Ludwick, Padres (67% owned)
Ludwick left the Cardinals and suddenly hit waiver wires for no good reason. I’m guessing it’s being blamed on the change in parks and lineups, but neither of those is a strong enough reason to leave a good platoon bat on the waiver wire. For one, the Cardinals have only scored 19 runs more than the Padres this year – surprising, no? Another surprising fact is that the park factor for righties in Petco is not as terrible as you might think. Though it’s a nasty 59 for left-handers, righties still manage a 92 park factor for home runs in the park. Guess what the park factor in St. Louis was for right-handed batters. Yeah, 73. So Ludwick may get a boost in home run production, might have a couple fewer ducks on the pond – this doesn’t sound like an epitaph because it isn’t one. ZiPs RoS calls for his OPS to surge from a decent .827 to a much nicer .914, and I believe it. I’ll take Ludwick as my final outfielder, thank you very much.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals (7% owned)
Instead of trying to give sand to Dave Duncan and asking for a sandwich, it seems the team has finally given him something nice to work with. Westbrook fits right inside Duncan’s wheelhouse as a groundballer (58.9% career) that relies on control (2.79 BB/9 career) and has a mediocre strikeout rate (4.96 K/9 career). He even is using his cutter a lot this year (12.9%)! Maybe getting rid of Ludwick to acquire Westbrook didn’t make a lot of sense, but this pitcher, in this park, with this pitching coach – that makes a lot of sense. It’s not magic, it’s just a good marriage. He’ll get a few more wins with that offense behind him, and he’ll probably pitch close to his lifetime xFIP (4.02) given the fact that the number was accrued in the more difficult league.

Kila Ka’aihue, Royals (1% owned)
It must be August if we’re touting a player that hasn’t started since he was called up, doesn’t have the backing of his organization, and grounded into a game-ending double play in his only major league at-bat of the past three months. Huzzah. The thing is, Ka’aihue has some skills – and an apostrophe – that argue in his favor. A 16% walk rate in the minor leagues is actually an elite skill, even. The power is suspect – he had a career .194 ISO in the minors which isn’t what you’d expect from your first baseman – and there’s the rub when it comes to the lack of at-bats, belief from the home club, and fantasy ownership. But this is a team that doesn’t currently have a left-fielder listed on their depth chart and is running Jose Guillen out there every day at designated hitter. Perhaps they can find room for a guy that will get on base, put up a decent batting average, and maybe run into a few homers along the way. It’s not like Gregor Blanco will do any better despite his .300 batting average.

Ownership numbers provided by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

The Big Puma is now a Bronx Bomber — the New York Yankees acquired Lance Berkman from the Houston Astros in exchange for RHP Mark Melancon and INF Jimmy Paredes. Berkman, 34, will take over as the Yankees’ DH. The switch-hitter is owed a little more than $7 million for the rest of the 2010 season, and the Astros will pick up $4 million of that salary. Berkman has a $15 million club option for 2011, with a $2 million buyout.

The Astros’ first-round pick in the 1997 draft began the year on the DL following surgery to remove loose cartilage from his left knee. With a .242/.372/.436 line and a .356 wOBA in 358 plate appearances, Berkman has fallen short of his pre-season projections — a .381 wOBA from CHONE and a .397 wOBA from ZiPS. Lance is still working the count exceptionally well, drawing a walk 16.8% of the time and swinging at just 21.2% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.9% MLB average). However, his BABIP (.279) and power (.191 ISO) are down.

Berkman’s line drive rate (16.7%) is three percentage points below his average since the 2002 season, though it’s hard to say whether that’s an actual change or a scoring issue. His 14.6% infield fly rate is higher than his 11.2% average since ’02 and the 7-8% MLB average. But even with those figures, Berkman’s expected BABIP (xBABIP) is .316. That’s awfully close to his career .318 average. The chances that he remains a .240ish hitter are low.

As for the power, Berkman’s hitting more ground balls than usual. His GB% is 47.4%, his highest mark dating back to ’02 (42.2% average over that time period). Lance’s 15.9% home run/fly ball rate is his lowest mark since 2003. When he has gone yard, it hasn’t gone as far as usual.

Hit Tracker Online keeps track of a players’ average speed off the bat on homers, as well as the “Standard Distance” of dingers. Standard distance “factors out the influence of wind, temperature and altitude, and is thus the best way of comparing home runs hit under a variety of different conditions.” According to Hit Tracker, Lance’s speed off the bat on HR in 2010 is 100.7 MPH (103.5 MPH average for major leaguers), and his standard distance is 380.5 feet (393.8 MLB average). In 2009, Berkman’s speed of the bat was 104.5 MPH and his standard distance was 403. In ’08, those figures were 103.7 MPH and 397.2 feet.

Lance Berkman’s days as a .400+ wOBA force are probably over, but he’s still a highly useful hitter. ZiPS projects him to bat .267/384/.489 with a .383 wOBA from here on out. He’ll see regular ABs in New York, though there’s some thought that he’ll occasionally sit vs. lefties in favor of Marcus Thames — Berkman has a .343 wOBA against LHP in 1,344 PA since ’02, while Thames has a .361 mark in 755 PA. If Berkman’s available in your league (his ownership rate is 74% in Yahoo leagues), he’s worth a roster spot. The Puma’s performance should pick up, though not to the level of his glory days.

For a player taken with the 13th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Brett Wallace sure has spent a lot of time packing suitcases. The Arizona State Sun Devil star was originally selected by the Cardinals, but he was shipped to the A’s as part of a trade for Matt Holliday last July. Oakland then swapped him to the Blue Jays this past off-season in a rare prospect challenge trade, with outfielder Michael Taylor going to the green and gold. And yesterday, the Astros acquired Wallace in exchange for Anthony Gose, a 19-year-old OF prospect just picked up in the Roy Oswalt deal with the Phillies. In Houston, “The Walrus” looks like the heir apparent to Lance Berkman at first base.

Wallace was a third baseman in college, and he mostly manned the hot corner in the minors up until this season. But scouts panned his work there (Baseball America said he “lacks the agility and athleticism for the position”), and Sean Smith’s Total Zone rated him as a poor fielder. The stoutly-built 23-year-old shifted to first base with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate in 2010. It’s not much of an exaggeration to say that Wallace’s value lies entirely in the quality of his bat. So, how good is that bat?

Here’s what Baseball America had to say about his offensive ability prior to the ’08 draft:

Many see the best natural hitter in the West. Wallace has a strong swing with above-average bat speed; his swing path stays in the zone a long time and he has outstanding plate discipline…Those that don’t care for him cite his body and the short careers of players built similarly, such as Bob Hamelin. Wallace’s bat should get him drafted in the first round regardless, and most scouts give him at least above-average raw power grades.

Wallace hit the ground running in pro ball in 2008, putting up a .337/.427/.530 line in 234 plate appearances spent mostly in the Low-A Midwest League (he also logged some time in the Double-A Texas League). The lefty hitter walked in 8.1% of his PA, punched out 19.3% and had a .193 ISO. Wallace didn’t draw a ton of walks and he did benefit from a .400+ BABIP, but it was still a quality debut.

Since then, Wallace has hit well, though it would be difficult to say that he has lived up to the “hitting machine” label often bestowed upon him. Last season, he batted a combined .293/.367/.455 in 600 PA taken in Texas League and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League (for the affiliates of both the A’s and Cardinals). He worked a free pass just 7.8%, while striking out 21.8% and posting a .162 ISO. In 2010, Wallace has hit .301/.359/.509 in 423 PCL plate appearances. Wallace has walked 6.4%, whiffed 21.6% and holds a .208 ISO. It’s worth noting that Cashman Field, home of the Las Vegas 51’s, is a fantastic offensive environment. According to Minor League Splits, Wallace’s park-adjusted line is .287/.349/.479.

Considering Wallace’s limited positional value, I think it’s fair to say that his lumber to date has been somewhat underwhelming. Though BA once praised his plate approach, Wallace hasn’t drawn all that many walks. And that above-average raw power hasn’t really been on full display. It’s not that he projects poorly in the majors, but his secondary skills don’t exactly stand out a position with a cumulative .270/.355/.460 triple-slash in 2010. Wallace could become an average starter at first base, perhaps a tick above that if you’re optimistic. But I don’t see a future offensive juggernaut here.

Some notes on two rarely owned first baseman, coming atcha.

Chris Davis | Rangers | 6% Owned

Picture this: One year ago, coming into draft day, I told you that Chris Davis would only be owned in 6% of leagues by the end of the next July. You would have slapped me silly, right? Since he was recalled after the Cliff Lee trade, Davis has brought his MLB K-rate down to the 25% mark, but despite an impressive LD rate, he hasn’t hit a single dinger for Texas this year. His contact% is up 10%+ this year, so he is showing some good signs. However, there is the possibility that he is consumed with not striking out and can’t focus on making hard, solid contact. He was crushing the ball in AAA, so I’d like to give him some time to put all of the pieces together. He still has a ton of power potential, but he may never get the chance to reach it. If he has a low dollar or round value in keeper leagues, he’s worth the roster spot. Otherwise, cut him loose.

Mike Morse | Nationals | 0% Owned

We talked about Morse briefly on the pod a while back, but he deserves a couple of sentences. Morse has shown power potential in the past, thanks to his 6-4 frame, and he looks to be staying healthy long enough to show off his skills. Granted, he’s in his age-28 season, so he’s supposed to be reaching his peak right about now. His sample size is very small, but that doesn’t make the numbers he’s already put up any less impressive. Morse is the right-handed half of a RF platoon in Washington, so his playing time won’t stand to increase without a move. However, if Adam Dunn gets dealt, the Nats might be willing to give Morse a shot at a full time gig. He’s worth a buy in NL-only leagues if you need some help at first base or in the outfield.

With not enough content to write separate 1B and 3B articles, let’s combine them, shall we?

Gordon Beckham | White Sox | 44% owned

Eno talked about Beckham late last week, but I figured he deserves some more attention. Beckham is now owned in 10% more leagues since Eno last updated you, and for good reason. In 39 July plate appearances, Beckham is hitting .421 with an OPS over 1.000. While the sample is small, and the BABIP is fluky (.438), Beckham is hitting more line drives, striking out less, and hitting for power. Beckham’s dual 2B/3B eligibility makes him an attract option in leagues with MI and CI roster spots, and he can man either of them on any given day. He’s young, so keeper league owners want to be especially vigilant and pick him off the waiver wire.

Pedro Alvarez | Pirates | 9% owned

Like Beckham, Alvarez did not have a good start to his season, but is turning it around. When he came up to the bigs, Alvarez was trying way to hard to hit homers, and his performance suffered because of it. He’s significantly cut down on the strikeouts this month, and has started to flash the power we were all expecting. He won’t keep hitting .308 due to a BABIP and overall skill issue, and he won’t walk, but he’s a good option in keeper leagues. He’ll get plenty of playing time the rest of the year, so don’t be afraid to add him if you are in a NL-only league and get in a bind.

Matt LaPorta | Indians | 16% owned

While he was the prized piece of the C.C. Sabathia deal, LaPorta had been looking like a bust before his recent surge. He’s hit well since he was recalled after the Russell Branyan trade, flashing both power and batting average skills. He still strikes out too much, but I think he’ll prove his doubters wrong the rest of the season. As an added bonus, LaPorta has LF and RF eligibility in Yahoo! leagues.

With all of these players, it wouldn’t be right for me to tout them and convince you to (at the very least) pay attention to them if I didn’t have something on the line. So, full disclosure: I picked up LaPorta and Beckham in separate leagues this week, and have hung onto Alvarez since he was called up. I believe in these guys, and you should, too.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.