Archive for First Base

It’s summer, it’s the weekend, and you ain’t got stuff to do. Well, maybe you should check that your lineups are set and your bench doesn’t have dead wood on it before you head out into the sun. You owe your fantasy teams that much at least.

Chris Perez, Cleveland (20% owned)
It’s your last chance to speculate on saves in Cleveland. The reasons to think Perez will be the eventual winner of the closer role are legion. He’s younger than Kerry Wood on a bad team looking to the future. He can be a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. He’s cheaper than Kerry Wood. Other teams are interested in trading for Kerry Wood. This is not to say that Perez is perfect. You’d like to see a lot more strikeouts than 7.60 per nine, a lot fewer walks than 4.72 per nine, and more groundballs than 32.6%. HIs 5.18 xFIP is really worrisome, actually, and you can see he’s been lucky (.236 BABIP, 82.1% LOB). On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates have been much better in the past, and he does own a closer’s arsenal of strikeout stuff normally. He’s one of the better saves-speculation pickups out there, if not the best.

Jim Thome, Minnesota (5% owned)
On April 19th, Brian Joura big-upped Thome in his Waiver Wire piece. On May 19th, I reminded y’all. It’s another month later, so it’s time for your monthly Thome update. The most recent news has Justin Morneau hitting the DL with concussion issues and opening up a spot for Thome to play regularly. In OBP leagues, that’s all you had to say, because Thome is still elite in OBP (.372) and power (.287). If your league uses batting average, you’ll have to give him a longer think because he’ll never again post a nice batting average with those strikeout and contact rates.

Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee (Yet to be added to Yahoo database)
With Doug Davis hitting the DL, the Brew crew decided to call up long-time prospect Cain to help man the outfield. There are bushels of caveats to mention in Cain’s case. First, he’s been around a while, and it took him five years to get through the Brewer’s minor league system, which is not usually a positive. Second, the twenty-four year old was never once dominating, as his .782 career and .846 full-year peak minor league OPSes can attest. He’s also pretty much a speed-only guy, judging from his career minor league .416 SLG and .124 ISO. He’s more of a slight speedster (6’2″ 200 lbs, 123 stolen bases in 572 minor league games at a 78% success rate). He was also rated “The Tumbler” by Marc Hulet because of strikeout issues last year. The last notch against him is that the Milwaukee outfield is still crowded… for now. Corey Hart is rumored to be leaving town soon, and deep league speed-starved managers could do worse for a speculative pickup here. At least Cain is coming off his best year as an amateur, hitting .326/.407/.439 combined so far in 2010. He also cut his strikeouts this year (down to 20.7% from 24.1%), so he’s going well right now.

Because the rankings really haven’t changed since the last time we spoke, it’s time to take a different look at the first base position.

Adam LaRoche | Diamondbacks | 48% owned

LaRoche is a notorious second half hitter, and I expect him to keep that streak alive this year. He might be dealt to a contender who needs a bench or situational bat at the deadline, so there is some risk involved with picking up LaRoche. His high strikeout rate will make it hard for him to raise his batting average, but he could come close to hitting 30 jacks this year. While first half and second half splits aren’t always the most reliable, LaRoche has proved me wrong too many times before. Give him a shot if you have a bench spot open in standard leagues.

Russell Branyan | Mariners | 12% owned

Even with the acquisition of Justin Smoak, Branyan will get playing time in Seattle. For the moment, he’s been playing DH while Milton Bradley sits with a sore knee. But, when Milton comes back, the team will have to decide what to do, and someone will be out of a gig (or Michael Saunders will). I doubt the M’s will bench Branyan, and as Pat Andriola notes, he is a candidate to be dealt at the deadline to a contender looking for some 1B or DH help. Wait and see what develops after the break, but Branyan is a good bet for power as long as he’s in the lineup.

Travis Ishikawa | Giants | 1% owned

Once Bengie Molina was dealt to the Rangers, Ishikawa became the everyday first baseman. I’ve always liked the guy (he’s from the Seattle area) and think he has the skills to be an average MLB first baseman. He’s been on fire, and while the All-Star break may cool him off, he’s looking great so far. In 71 plate appearances, Ishikawa is hitting 35% line drives, keeping the strikeouts down, and slugging .538. He’s going to be available in your league, so give him a shot in deep leagues if you want to improve your team’s AVG.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues. And yes, I stole this format from Axisa.

Last season, Pablo Sandoval was a one-man wrecking crew. The switch-hitting, ambidextrous free-swinger crushed pitchers for a .330/.387/.566 triple-slash in 633 plate appearances, good for a .396 wOBA and a 145 wRC+. With +34.9 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs during his first full season in the majors, Sandoval placed among the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard. He entered 2010 as a fantasy darling — according to KFFL, the Panda had an ADP of 37.

Sandoval’s pre-season projections expected some regression in terms of his power output (.226 ISO in 2009) and BABIP (.350), but owners still had every right to expect big offensive numbers:

ZiPS: .320/.368/.516, .383 wOBA, .196 ISO, .342 BABIP
CHONE: .325/.368/.526, .385 wOBA, .201 ISO, .348 BABIP

Yet, Sandoval’s lumber has been lacking. He’s got a tepid .266/.325/.387 line in 366 PA, with a .307 wOBA and an 88 wRC+. Pablo’s usually-thunderous bat has been -5.3 runs below average. What gives?

Little has changed in terms of his “plate discipline” numbers. Sandoval swung at 41.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone in 2009, and 43.8% in 2010. The overall MLB average for O-Swing has increased, likely due to the way that pitches are charted, but Sandoval’s O-Swing compared to the big league average hasn’t shifted much. His O-Swing was 166 percent of the MLB average in ’09, and 153 percent of the average in 2010. Pablo’s also making contact at about the same rate as usual — 83% (83.3% career average, 81% MLB average). His first pitch strike percentage is 63.4% (62.8% career average, 58% MLB average). Sandoval’s walk and strikeout rates are exactly the same as last year — 8.2% and 14.5%, respectively.

The big changes are in his BABIP and pop. Sandoval has always posted a high BABIP (.339 as a prospect, according to Minor League Splits) and, as the pre-season projections showed, CHONE and ZiPS expected another robust BABIP. Instead, Sandoval’s getting hits on balls put in play just 29.2 percent of the time (.292 BABIP). Has he been unlucky? The answer would appear to be yes. Pablo is hitting fewer line drives (18.6% in ’09, 16.1% this year) and is popping the ball up a bit more (7.9 IF/FB% in ’09, 10.2% in ’10). But even so, his expected BABIP, based on his rate of homers, K’s, SB, line drives, fly balls, infield flies and ground balls, is .314. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .326 BABIP from Sandoval.

The more peculiar development is his mild power production. The Panda has a .121 ISO, with just 5.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard (14% last season). Here’s Sandoval’s performance by batted ball type in 2010, compared to 2009:

You’ll note the downturn in his ground ball and line drive BABIP. But Sandoval’s power decline on his fly balls and liners hit has been dramatic as well. In 2009, he had a .528 ISO on fly balls, while the NL average was .371. This season, he’s got a .322 ISO on fly balls (.367 NL average). Pablo posted a .322 ISO on line drives in ’09, but just .153 in 2010 (the NL average is .256 both seasons).

The chances of Sandoval faring so poorly on balls put in play and hitting for such little power in the second half are remote. The Panda’s rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .305/.357/.484 line, with his wOBA climbing to .366 and his ISO increasing to .179. CHONE projects a more potent performance — .318/.363/.511 (.193 ISO).

This would be a good time to buy low on Sandoval. I wouldn’t bet that a 23-year-old with a history of mashing has suddenly forgotten how to drive the ball.

Chris Davis, Rangers (Owned in seven percent of Yahoo leagues)

Justin Smoak’s Seattle-bound, as the 2008 first-round pick is the prime player acquired by the M’s in the six-player deal sending Cliff Lee to Arlington. That clears the path to big league playing time for Davis, who’ll take over first base duties for the first-place Rangers. Is the third time a charm for Davis, or will his bat fall flat again?

Texas’ fifth-round pick in the ’06 draft has bounced back and forth between the majors and Triple-A Oklahoma City over the past two seasons. The Rangers handed him an everyday spot both years, but Davis’ hacking and contact issues led to demotions in July of ’09 and April of 2010. In the majors, the 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter has crushed the ball when he has gotten a hold of it — he’s got a .221 ISO in 792 career plate appearances, with 18.6% of his fly balls ending up in the cheap seats. His plate discipline, by contrast, has been putrid.

Davis has walked in just 6.2% of his PA, while whiffing 34.6%. His strike zone is huge — here are Davis’ outside swing percentages over the 2008-2010 seasons, divided by the MLB average that season:

2008: 1.47
2009: 1.35
2010: 1.15

Keep in mind that the 2010 figure is based on just 56 PA. Chasing so many pitches off the plate, Davis has often gotten behind in the count. His career first pitch strike percentage is 62.9, while the MLB average is 58-59%.

Contact has also been a big issue — Davis has connected 65.5% of the time that he pulls the trigger overall (81% MLB average), including 74.7% of the time he swings at an in-zone offering (88% MLB average). Over the past three calendar years, he’s got the third-lowest total contact rate and the second-lowest Z-contact rate in the majors (minimum 500 PA).

With plus pop but also a tendency to swing at anything from Lubbock to Houston, Davis has been a Mike Jacobs doppelganger to this point — his big league career triple-slash is .253/.301/.474, with a .330 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that’s two percent below average (98 wRC+). Happily, the 24-year-old has thumped pitchers with the RedHawks. In 293 PCL PA, Davis batted .354/.403/.555 (his career line in Triple-A is .341/.407/.571 in 614 PA). On the positive side, he hit for power (.201 ISO with Oklahoma City in 2010) and whiffed less than a quarter of the time (24.3 K%). However, that line was boosted by .434 BABIP, and he still wasn’t working many walks (7.8 BB%).

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Davis to bat .244/.297/.461. CHONE anticipates a .269/.319/.470 line. Davis’ ability to drive the ball makes him an intriguing add in AL-only leagues, but he’s going to have to tighten his strike zone to finally stick at the highest level.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (16%)

The 20-year-old lefty might not garner quite the same prospect praise these days — where once he cracked the mid-90’s with his fastball, Bumgarner now sits around 90 MPH. His secondary stuff (a low-80’s slider and changeup, as well as a low-70’s curve) remains a work in progress, too. That being said, he’s still worthy of consideration in NL-only formats.

Bumgarner burst on to the scene in 2008, using his high-octane heat to post rates of 10.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 1.71 FIP in 141.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Bumgarner’s park-and-lucked adjusted FIP in the Low-A South Atlantic League was 2.99. With his velocity on the wane in 2009, the North Carolina prep product’s K rate took a tumble — in 131.1 innings spent mostly in the Double-A Eastern League (he opened the year in the High-A Cal League), Bumgarner had 6.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted 4.42 FIP.

He got a late-season cameo with the Giants, but Bumgarner opened 2010 in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Logging 82.2 innings, the 6-4, 215 pound southpaw punched out 6.4 batters per nine innings, walked 2.4 per nine and had a 4.31 park-and-luck adjusted FIP. Madison has made three starts for San Fran so far, with a 15/5 K/BB ratio and a 4.19 xFIP in 22 IP.

Any owner considering a Bumgarner pick up will need to keep his workload in mind — he has thrown 104.2 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2010, just 37 frames away from his previous career high established in the Sally League in ’08. The Giants could occasionally skip him or push his starts back. ZiPS thinks he’ll be useful when he does take the mound (5.94 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 4.01 FIP). CHONE is less sanguine — a 4.98 neutralized ERA, with 6.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. Perhaps Bumgarner isn’t, at least at the moment, the power pitcher we anticipated. But he still could be an above-average MLB starter.

It’s just one of those things. I feel good at the plate, but I hit it right at them.

— Justin Smoak, to the Fort Worth Star Telegram

You can’t just hit the ball hard and not get any luck…. Justin is holding his own, and we’ll just leave it at that.

— Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington, to the Star Telegram

In late April, the Texas Rangers called up first baseman Justin Smoak from Triple-A Oklahoma City. The club hoped that the switch hitter’s keen strike-zone awareness and power would provide an upgrade over the scuffling Chris Davis. Smoak’s first taste of the majors has been bitter — he’s batting .207/.318/.364 in 255 plate appearances. His wOBA is .306, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA is 16 percent below average (84 wRC+). That’s not quite what the Rangers thought they’d get from the 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft. However, both the South Carolina product and his manager are correct in a sense. Smoak’s getting some bad bounces, but he also might need to make an adjustment at the plate. Overall, he’s holding his own in the majors.

Back when the Rangers popped Smoak and handed him a $3.5 million bonus, Baseball America lauded his “superior pitch recognition.” That skill has been on full display since he signed — Smoak’s career minor league line sits at .293/.411/.461 in 599 plate appearances, with a 16% walk rate. With the Rangers, Smoak’s working the pitcher for a walk 14.1% of the time. He’s not getting a lot of pitches within the strike zone (44.7%, compared to the 47.2% MLB average), and he’s doing a good job of laying off those offerings. Smoak’s outside swing percentage is 25.7%, well below the 28.5% big league average. Adeptly discerning balls from strikes, Smoak isn’t falling behind the pitcher often — his first pitch strike percentage is just 52.2% (58.6% MLB average).

He’s also hitting for solid, if not spectacular power. The 23-year-old has a .157 Isolated Power, with 13.6% of his fly balls hit turning into home runs. Smoak’s power output in the minors wasn’t off-the-charts (.168 ISO), but that may have been the result of a rib cage injury suffered in the middle of the 2009 season. Few question the 6-4, 220 pounder’s ability to put a charge into the ball.

If Smoak’s taking his walks and showing decent pop, why is his line so lousy? The answer appears to be a combination of poor luck and perhaps a timing issue when he decides to pull the trigger.

His BABIP on the season is extremely low, at .234. Among big league hitters with at least 250 PA, Smoak has the fifth-lowest BABIP. Part of the reason for that low BABIP is that he’s hitting a bunch of pop-ups — Smoak’s infield per fly ball rate is 18.6%, the third highest rate in the majors and far higher than the 7-8% MLB average (for reference, Smoak hit pop ups 9.2% of the time in the minors). But even with that IF/FB rate, Smoak’s expected BABIP is .315.

Meanwhile, at Triple-A, Davis is hitting .340/.389/.533. Given that line, it might be tempting to make a change. That performance includes good pop (.193 ISO), but also a modest walk rate (7.4 BB%) propped up by a .420 BABIP. If the Rangers stay the course with Smoak, they’ll likely be rewarded.

Back, but probably not better than ever. If the rankings are crazy, blame my cold.

Gigantic Two
Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera

I knew it felt wrong to slide Cabrera in front of Pujols, so after some evaluation, Pujols is back on top. I expect Miggy to have better power numbers going forward, but the steals that Albert may grab you will make up for it.

Big Three
Joey Votto
Justin Morneau
Adrian Gonzalez

Three lefties, and three big performers. All of these guys will put up similar numbers, but I think Votto comes out ahead. But, really, can you go wrong with any of them?

Strong Contributors
Ryan Howard
Adam Dunn
Kevin Youkilis
Paul Konerko

Howard has been disappointing, Konerko has been a nice surprise, while Dunn and Youk continue to do their thing. Losing Pedroia, and possibly Victor for some time could hurt Youkilis’ value. …

I am Jack’s First Baseman
Prince Fielder
Mark Teixeira
Garrett Jones
Troy Glaus

It pains me to do it, but Fielder and Teixeira need to drop down this far. Fielder isn’t even driving in runs, something you’d expect even if he wasn’t hitting homers. I’m really close to putting Jones above Teixeira. Maybe Glaus, too.

Writers Block
Billy Butler
Nick Swisher
Adam LaRoche

Big AVG from Butler, but it’s a bit too empty. Swisher has been great, and LaRoche needs to bring his strikeout rate down.

The Rest of ‘Em
Luke Scott
Justin Smoak
Aubrey Huff
David Ortiz
Derrek Lee
Carlos Pena
Russell Branyan
Ike Davis
Lance Berkman

I know this group is huge, but that’s how close these guys are. You could take any one of these guys over another, and I couldn’t chew you out for it.

Seattle Mariners acquired 1B/DH Russell Branyan from the Cleveland Indians for OF Ezequiel Carrera and SS Juan Diaz. Cleveland will either pay what’s left of Branyan’s $2 million salary or send the M’s a PTBNL.

Branyan wasn’t acquired as part of some last-ditch effort to climb back into the AL West race — the Mariners are 14 games back of Texas and have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Rather, Seattle brought the 34-year-old slugger back, in GM Jack Zduriencik’s words, “to give our team every opportunity to be as productive as possible this season, while not harming the long-term plan for the franchise.” Collectively, Mariners first basemen have a major league-worst .260 wOBA in 2010.

Last year, Branyan turned in the best season of his career in the Pacific Northwest. Getting regular playing time, the lefty batter mashed to the tune of .251/.347/.520 in 505 plate appearances and compiled 2.8 WAR. His wOBA was .368, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA was 29 percent above average (129 wRC+). Unfortunately, a bulging disk in Branyan’s back ended his season in late August.

He signed a one-year deal with the Indians this past winter, with a $5 million mutual option for the 2011 season. Branyan began the year on the DL with continued back woes, but he has hit slightly above expectations since returning to the lineup in late April. He’s got a .263/.328/.491 line in 190 PA, with a .355 wOBA and a 122 wRC+ (CHONE and ZiPS both projected a .348 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ prior to the start of the season).

Now that Cleveland has said see you in another life, brotha to Branyan for a fourth time, first base is Matt LaPorta’s spot to lose. The seventh overall selection in the ’07 draft, LaPorta was supposed to be the Tribe’s big prize in the July 2008 CC Sabathia deal. However, LaPorta’s monstrous minor league line (.296/.390/.563, 10.7 BB%, .267 ISO) has given way to a disastrous .240/.301/.377 (.300 wOBA) showing in 300 big league PA over the 2009-2010 seasons. LaPorta was slowed by off-season surgeries on his left hip and left toe, but his power was MIA prior to an early June demotion to Columbus. His career ISO is .137.

It’s just 300 PA split over two years, so we shouldn’t let a half-season’s worth of trips to the plate serve as some definitive judgment of LaPorta’s abilities. Still, his rest-of-season ZiPS (.257/.329/.414, .331 wOBA) is thoroughly uninspiring. He’s in his mid-twenties and down the defensive spectrum. LaPorta will need to significantly outperform that projection to be a useful starter, much less a star.

In addition to giving an erstwhile top prospect a shot at redemption, shipping out Branyan netted the Indians Carrera and Diaz. Carrera, 23, was part of the December ’08 three-team extravaganza involving the Mets (his original club), M’s and Indians. The lithe lefty batter ranked as the 15th-best talent in the Mariners’ system prior to 2010, per Baseball America. The Venezuelan-born Carrera piqued the interest of prospect types last season by batting .337/.441/.416 in the Double-A Southern League. He didn’t show much power (.079 ISO), and his BABIP was .407. But even so, he worked the count very well (14.6 BB%) while earning praise for his center field defense.

Moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2010, Carrera has a .268/.339/.315 triple-slash in 243 PA. Perhaps with pitchers realizing that the worst outcome of giving Carrera a pitch in the zone is a seeing-eye single (.047 ISO), his walk rate has fallen to 8.2%. Odds are, Carrera carves out a career as an extra outfielder who can cover the gaps. His fantasy value might be zilch, though — while he swiped twenty-plus bags each season from 2006-2009, Carrera’s career SB success rate is just 68.9%.

Diaz, 21, is shortstop signed by the M’s out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. The 6-3, 180 pound switch-hitter has put together a .299/.347/.434 line at high-octane High Desert of the High-A California League over the past two years. He didn’t rate among Seattle’s top 30 prospects leading up to 2010.

J.D. Martin, Nationals (Owned in one percent of Yahoo Leagues)

While Washington’s non-Strasburg starters have been lackluster this season, with a collective 4.68 xFIP that ranks 15th in the NL, Martin’s solid performance so far might not buy him much job security. Scott Olsen (shoulder inflammation) could be back next month, as could Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder). Jordan Zimmermann (Tommy John surgery) is another possibility to pitch in August or September. Returns for Jason Marquis (elbow) and Ross Detwiler (hip) are less certain.

In the meantime, however, NL-only players could do worse. Martin, 27, was a supplemental first-round pick of the Cleveland Indians in the 2001 draft. The 6-4, 200 pound righty once rated prominently on prospect lists, cracking Baseball America’s top 100 prior to 2002. Sadly, injury derailed his ascent to the majors — Martin underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005. His standing in Cleveland’s system slipped, as he was shifted mostly to relief work in 2008, and he then signed as a minor league free agent with the Nationals prior to 2009.

Martin’s a soft-tosser — he features an 87-88 MPH fastball, a mid-80’s cutter, a low-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup — but he has a quality minor league track record and exceptional control. Last season at Triple-A Syracuse, Martin had 6.44 K/9, 1.02 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9 and a 2.77 FIP in 88 innings pitched. Prior to his late-May call-up in 2010, he whiffed 5.5 per nine, walked 1.8 per nine, surrendered 0.7 HR/9 and held a 3.75 FIP in 41 IP.

Logging 102.1 big league frames over the past two years, Martin has 4.84 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 5.09 xFIP. There’s no guarantee that he’ll succeed — Martin won’t miss many bats, and he’s a fly ball pitcher (37.4 GB%) who has experienced problems with the long ball (1.67 HR/9) — but he could be a decent mid-to-back-end starter. ZiPS projects 5.63 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.44 FIP for the rest of 2010.

Ike Davis, Mets (16%)

The 18th overall pick in the 2008 draft experienced a famous power outage after signing (.256/.326/.326, 0 HR in 239 New York-Penn League PA), causing some Mets fans to rashly wonder if the team made a mistake. Since then, Davis has raked. He batted a combined .298/.381/.524 in 488 PA between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Eastern League last season, walking 11.7 percent of the time, punching out 26.1 percent and posting a .226 ISO while going yard 20 times.

After a productive Arizona Fall League stint and a week-plus at the Triple-A level, Davis was bumped up to the majors early in 2010. Davis, 23, has made a seamless transition. The 6-5 lefty hitter has a .261/.345/.447 triple-slash in 226 PA, with a .346 wOBA. He’s showing decent pop, with a .186 ISO, and he’s walking in 11.1 percent of his trips to the plate. Plus, those dugout flips are so freakin’ cool.

Davis has been a fairly aggressive batter, swinging at 29.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.2% MLB average this season), but he holds that double-digit walk rate as a result of seeing very few offerings over the plate. Pitchers are giving Isaac Benjamin an in-zone pitch just 38.3 percent of the time, the lowest rate among qualified MLB hitters (47.3% MLB average). On a related note, opponents are reluctant to give him fastballs — Davis is getting a fastball under 50% of the time, eighth-lowest among big league batsmen. So far, the opposition’s strategy against Ike seems to be, “feed him off-speed stuff off the plate and hope for a chase.” It’ll be interesting to see if that approach shifts in the months to come.

I bet some of you fine folks are wondering where your catcher rankings are, right? Well, I am alternating weeks with catcher rankings and corner infield rankings. At this point in the year, rankings won’t change much week to week, so this is a much better option.

Gigantic Two
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols

Dropping Albert to the number two spot doesn’t feel right, but Miggy deserves to be ranked above him.

Big Three
Justin Morneau
Adrian Gonzalez
Joey Votto

Remember when everyone got on my case for keeping Morneau down? Good times. After the top five, the rankings got really tricky. Here goes nothing.

Surprised?
Ryan Howard
Adam Dunn
Kevin Youkilis
Prince Fielder

I never thought I’d see Howard and Fielder down this far, but they’ve looked like mere mortals this season. Howard has an excuse (batting stance), but what’s Prince’s? Did he accidentally eat some meat?

I Am Jack’s First Baseman
Paul Konerko
Mark Teixeira
Garrett Jones
Troy Glaus

Jack has a catcher, so he should probably think about picking up a first baseman. I have no clue what is going on with Mark Teixeira, but it looks like he may have lost some pop in his bat compared to last year.

Writer’s Block
Billy Butler
Adam LaRoche
Nick Swisher
Luke Scott

If you want average, Butler’s your man. If you want OBP, Swisher’s your guy.

The Rest of ‘Em
David Ortiz
Carlos Pena
James Loney
Aubrey Huff
Lance Berkman
Justin Smoak
Derrek Lee
Russell Branyan

Pena falls really far, because I’m not willing to pay for his batting average to get his homers. He has some luck issues, but he’s not helping anything. This is a big group, but I felt like all of them belonged together. Could make good points for all of them being above each other. Papi might belong in the “Writer’s Block” group, but I’m not comfortable putting him there.

Jonathon Niese (owned in 6% of Yahoo leagues)

Niese, 23, cobbled together a quality minor league resume (8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 51.8 GB%). The left-hander was on his way to establishing himself as a member of the Mets’ rotation last season when a torn right hamstring ended his season in August, requiring a surgical fix. He hit the DL this season with another, milder right hamstring injury. But when on the mound, Niese has impressed.

Tossing 57.1 innings, New York’s seventh round pick in the ’05 draft has 7.06 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 and a 3.94 xFIP. He’s showing strong a ground ball rate to boot, with a 52.2 GB%. Niese doesn’t blow batters away — his fastball hits 90 MPH on a good day. But he supplements the pitch with a mid-80’s cutter that tails in on the hands of righties, as well as the occasional mid-70’s curveball and low-80’s changeup. Niese’s four-seamer and cutter both have above-average strike and whiff percentages:

Four-Seamer: 66.2 Strike% (64.1% MLB Avg.), 8.1 Whiff% (6% MLB Avg.)
Cutter: 69.4 Strike% (68.3% MLB Avg.), 12 Whiff% (8.8% MLB Avg.)

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 6.53 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a 3.93 FIP from Niese. He doesn’t possess one standout skill, but Niese makes batters chop the ball into the grass while amassing decent K and walk rates. He’s plenty useful in NL-only formats.

Troy Glaus, Braves (63%)

Signed to a one-year, $1.75 million deal over the winter, Glaus was picked up off the scrap heap as a Freddie Freeman stopgap. The former Angel, Diamondback, Blue Jay and Cardinal’s career looked to be on the ropes after a 2009 season ruined by a back problem and a right shoulder injury that required surgery. CHONE (.249/.359/.447, .356 wOBA) and ZiPS (.252/.358/.441, .355 wOBA) projected a reasonably productive season for Atlanta’s reclamation project, but that was under the assumption that the 33-year-old wouldn’t again fall to pieces physically.

So far, Glaus has stayed healthy and is surpassing those pre-season forecasts. In 253 plate appearances, he has a .279/.375/.474 line and a .373 wOBA. He’s drawing walks at a 13.4% clip, and while he’s not hitting for the mammoth power of years past, Glaus has a solid .195 ISO. Freeman (.249/.306/.422 in 185 AB in Triple-A) isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball for Gwinett, so Glaus’ job looks secure. ZiPS projects a .260/.363/.449 triple-slash from here on out, with a .361 wOBA.