Archive for First Base

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPs projections for the Astros came out today, and the projections for that lineup are a depressing sight for Astros fans – or keeper-league owners with the misfortune of owning Astros. Let’s cover some of the low-lights, which happen to comprise the corner infield and middle of the lineup, here.

Brett Wallace: .261/.324/.414 with 17 HR and 59 RBI
We should have known this would be ugly when Bill James refused to project Wallace despite the fact that Wallace is probably the starting first baseman for the Astros this upcoming season. ZiPs projects a poor power output for a first baseman – his .153 ISO would prove to be barely above the .145 overall average last year, and squarely below the number qualified first baseman averaged (.203 ISO). Worse even are his plate discipline stats (32/129 K/BB). This kind of production might play while the Astros are in transition, but it won’t be a long-term solution, and if anyone steps to the fore and looks ready in 2011, they might even get a look this season. The only way that Wallace makes a good fantasy pick is if he drops too far (bench picks?) in a deep league draft – and even then, he’s probably a better late corner infield or utility solution than a first baseman. We always knew that Wallace had some stats that were inflated by his relative age and run environments, but these projections really hammer it home. This is why all his teams traded him.

Chris Johnson: .269/.303/.429 with 16 HR and 73 RBI
As bad as it sounds, having two mediocre corner infielders puts the Astros’ corner infield in the middle of baseball when it comes to at least one statistic. Their combined projected .160 ISO would have ranked 15th (tied with the Phillies!) in the league last year. Let’s hear it for the average guys! We all knew that last year’s .387 BABIP wouldn’t make it into the projections, and with his plate discipline last year (4.1% BB, 26.7% K) it’s no surprise to see that batting average plummet. What Johnson has going for him – that Wallace doesn’t – is his position. Last year, qualified third basemen put up a .174 ISO, which puts Johnson (.160 ISO) much closer to average at his position. The problem with these two men in fantasy, however, is that it’s much more likely that someone in your league values their upside just because of their age. And if they value their upside, they’ll pick them before you can. If your investment in Johnson is commensurate with the value of, say, the 20th-best third baseman in fantasy baseball – then he’s a value.

First baseman Carlos Pena revived his career in Tampa, transforming from a disappointing former top-10 draft pick who passed through Texas, Oakland, Detroit, the Bronx and Boston to an offensive force. From 2007-2009, Pena had a .252/.382/.553 batting line, with a .393 wOBA that tied him with Miguel Cabrera for 14th among qualified MLB hitters over that time frame.

Unfortunately, Pena’s free agent walk year wasn’t near as impressive: the lefty masher hit .196/.325/.407 in 2010, and his wOBA nosedived to a career-low .326. That’s a solid number for a slick-fielding shortstop or center fielder, but hardly sufficient for a player at a power position. The Chicago Cubs recently signed Pena to a one-year, $10 million deal, hoping that the 32-year-old keeps the Bleacher Bums at Wrigley busy with a bounce back performance.

What caused Pena’s quiet year at the plate, and is he primed for a comeback in Chicago? Let’s try to find out.

Pena’s plate patience wasn’t a source of concern, as his 26.6% rate of swinging at pitches tossed out of the strike zone was well below the 29.3% big league average. Not going all Francoeur at the plate leads to hitter’s counts. According to Baseball-Reference, Pena got ahead in the count against pitchers in 42.8% of his plate appearances. For comparison, the 2010 American League average was 35.5%. It’s no surprise, then, that Pena walked in 14.9% of his PA. Among qualified batters, only Daric Barton and Prince Fielder took a leisurely stroll to first base more often.

However, while Pena remained a walk machine, his power declined. A .211 Isolated Power is hardly poor, but that figure was well below Pena’s previous work with the Rays: a .345 ISO in 2007, .247 in 2008 and a .310 mark in 2009.

Pena rarely hit a ground ball during his first three years in Tampa, but that changed this past season. He grounded out just 33% from ’07 to ’09 (44% MLB average). In 2010, he chopped the ball earthward 44.9% of the time. That spike in worm burners certainly didn’t help Pena’s power output. Based on Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s website, here are Pena’s ground ball rates by pitch type since 2008 (the first year for which the site has data). To provide more context, I also included MLB ground ball averages by pitch type from The Hardball Times’ Harry Pavlidis:

Pena saw an across-the-board increase on grounders, hitting more breaking and offspeed stuff into the dirt than the average MLB batter. His grounder rate on fastballs, though still below the big league average, shot up considerably as well.

Pena has long been a dead pull hitter, sizzling many of the balls that he puts in play to the right side…

…and many of those extra grounders came on pulled pitches. Those power-sapping ground balls, coupled with a very low BABIP, made Pena a lousy pull hitter this past year:

From ’07 to ’09, Pena was a prodigious pull hitter. According to our new expanded splits section, his .555 wOBA when pulling over that period was sixth-best among big league batters. But this past year, his wOBA to the right side of the field was a full 40 points worse than the average lefty batter.

Pena’s performance when hitting to center also suffered compared to past years, with more grounders, less pop and a lower BABIP:

He fared very well when putting the ball in play to the opposite field, but keep in mind he rarely goes to the opposite field:

With few hits falling to the pull side and to center, Pena’s overall BABIP nosedived to .222. From 2007-2009, Pena’s BABIP was .283.

Pena, of course, is often subject to a defensive shift that moves fielders more toward his pull side. Over at The Baseball Analysts, Jeremy Greenhouse did find that shifted hitters on the whole have a lower BABIP than non-shifted hitters, and that Pena’s ground ball angle (he hits lots of grounders toward the second baseman) is particularly shift-worthy.

But, while there’s little reason to expect Pena’s BABIP to approach .300, it’s also unlikely that it will remain over 50 points below his career mark. His batting average is never going to be pretty, but he’s more apt to hit in the .230s-.240s next year than below the Mendoza Line.

The key for Pena is to keep the ball off the ground. Those ground balls hurt his power numbers, and they’re especially damaging for a slow-footed slugger subject to a defensive shift.

Happily, he is moving from a park that damages lefty power to one that boosts it considerably — according to StatCorner, Tropicana Field depresses HR production by 11 percent compared to a neutral park, while Wrigley pumps it up by 19 percent. There’s little chance that Pena produces like he did during his peak years in Tampa. But with better luck and a more favorable offensive environment, Pena’s triple-slash could look an awful lot like his career averages: .241/.351/.490. Maybe not “Holy Cow!” worthy, but not bad either.

How do you think Pena will fare in Chicago? Make sure to submit a 2011 projection here.

Adam Dunn and the White Sox seemed like a fit since day one. Kenny Williams wanted a lefty run producer, and Dunn wanted a lot of years and a lot of money. It was a match made in hot stove heaven, and you can insert a generic “Dunn deal” pun here. Four years and $56M took care of things, and now one of the game’s premier power hitters joins a team that sorely needed a left-handed thumper.

Read the rest of this entry »

When I first wrote this, Gonzalez was still on the road to being a Red Sox. Then, I edited it when the deal fell through, and again when the deal ended up getting done. However, the question set I had when the deal fell through will lead to an interesting discussion, so I’ll keep it up. The first question assumes Gonzalez plays for the Red Sox (which he now does), while the second one assumes he is still on the Padres. That way we can gauge how far owners expect his stock will rise. We’re also going to use “pick” instead of “round” this time, so we’ll see how it goes. Hope it’s not to complicated.

Due to recent developments, it feels like my hand has been forced and we have to crowdsource Adrian Gonzalez. Playing for the San Diego Padres, Gonzalez has played at least 160 games in each of the past four seasons, making him one of (if not) the most consistent and low-risk picks in fantasy baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

While the deal is not quite official, the San Diego Padres and the Boston Red Sox have agreed in principle to a swap that would send 1B Adrian Gonzalez to Beantown in exchange for RHP Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF Reymond Fuentes and a PTBNL. Gonzalez, 28, will make just $6.2 million this upcoming season and is eligible for free agency after the 2011 campaign. Boston has a window that lasts until 2 p.m. Eastern Time Sunday to hammer out a contract extension with Gonzalez. The lefty slugger, who underwent right shoulder surgery in late October, must also pass a physical (CSNNE’s Sean McAdam Tweets that Gonzalez has already checked out medically).

While trading an elite talent like Gonzalez is painful for Padres fans, the club did get three Top 10 prospects back in the deal. For now, though, let’s focus on how the trade affects Gonzalez’s value.

A disciplined hitter with plus power, Gonzalez has managed to post sublime offensive stats despite taking cuts in a home ball park that’s death to all things lumber. Over the last three years, Gonzalez has batted .285/.387/.523, walking in 13.8% of his plate appearances and posting a .238 Isolated Power.

To give you an idea of how much of an impediment PETCO Park has been to Gonzalez, let’s use one of Baseball-Reference’s many stat head goodies. B-R has a feature that allows us to adjust a hitter’s offensive production for run environment (runs/game), league (AL or NL), and park. Here are Gonzalez’s triple-slash numbers from 2008-2010. The first column has his actual AVG/OBP/SLG stats over those seasons. The second shows his stats in a neutral offensive environment in the NL. And the third shows what his slash line might have looked like had he been playing for Boston.

B-R shows Fenway Park boosting overall offensive production by six percent. StatCorner has park factors by batter handedness, and the site has lefties getting a four percent bump. Homers aren’t easy to come by, but doubles are. By comparison, PETCO has a 91 Park Factor on Baseball-Reference (depressing offense by nine percent), and StatCorner shows the venue harming left-handed hitters 10 percent more than a neutral park.

It should be noted that Gonzalez isn’t your typical lefty power hitter: he crushes pitches to all fields. Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, here’s a spray chart showing where Gonzalez went deep in 2010:

This past year, he hit 13 home runs to left field (41.9%), six to center (19.4%) and 12 to right field (38.7%). Over the course of his major league career, Gonzalez has hit 36.3% of his dingers to left, 23.2% to center and 40.5% to the pull field.

Clearly, Gonzalez is an upper-echelon hitter. Getting out of PETCO’s clutches will only boost his fantasy value, which was already lofty to begin with. Over the past three years, Gonzalez has been part of an elite class of big league batters. His wOBA, adjusted for league and park factors, was 46% better than average (146 wRC+). Only Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Holliday, and Joe Mauer have better marks over that time frame, and Hanley Ramirez is tied with Gonzalez.

Should the trade become official, Gonzalez becomes an even more coveted fantasy option. Also, with Gonzalez taking over at first base, Kevin Youkilis will shift across the diamond and get a bump in value by regaining third base eligibility.

Gonzalez has been an offensive beast despite being shackled by PETCO. Now, we get to see what he’s capable of while swinging in a much more liberating Fenway Park.

It’s a tough offseason to be a veteran free agent first baseman. Though it may normally be a difficult position to be in anyway, there are now too many lumbering older dudes looking for too few chairs and the music will eventually stop. Who will win this round of musical chairs? Will any of the bunch succeed and therefore become a fantasy value pick in 2011?

By the current count, the Cubs, Jays, Nationals, White Sox and Rays don’t have a traditional first baseman on their roster, and they probably represent the best opportunities for an every-day first base job for Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche, and Lyle Overbay. Someone will probably be on the outside looking in.

Perhaps that is over-rating the dire state of the market. There might be a chance that the Red Sox, Rangers or Orioles buy a first baseman on the market. They have options at the position, but they could also move players around. Still, the Orioles and Rangers are more likely to solve the situation with their cheaper internal options – Luke Scott and Nolan Reimold could be good enough to man DH and first base for a rebuilding club, and Mitch Moreland and Vladimir Guerrero (provided he re-signs) could do the job for a Rangers team that might be looking to spend money on pitching.

If you drafted today, you’d have to downgrade the whole bunch – save Dunn – because of the uncertainty. But you’d also have to downgrade the older men in the crew because of their age. Only 18 firstbasemen over 35 have put up better than an .800 OPS since 1975, and only Mark McGwire, Andres Gallaraga, Jeff Bagwell and Carlos Delgado hit more than 30 home runs over that age. Most likely, only one of Lee, Berkman and Overbay will join the .800+ OPS crew – and none fit in the second group when it comes to power.

Really, the decision comes down to Lee and Berkman if you’re looking for a bounce-back value at the position at the end of your deep-league draft. Lee had back problems, and Berkman has a degenerative knee problem – neither state of health induces much hope for a clean bill of health in 2011. Berkman has said that the Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, A’s, Pirates and Blue Jays are interested – but the NL teams on the list would most likely want him as a backup (save the Cubs), and the AL teams are rumored to be interested in him as a DH. Players often suffer worse numbers as they transition to DH, and Berkman’s .255/.358/.349 line in New York at DH doesn’t offer much hope. The market for Lee so far has been deadly quiet, which may have something to do with his offseason thumb surgery – or his age.

In any case, it’s a tough season to be a free agent first baseman, and it’s a tough time to be drafting – this is why we schedule drafts as late as we can before the season starts. Once the actual deals come through, we’ll evaluate their situations more fully, but this serves as a general warning. There’s not much upside here as history doesn’t like 35-year-old first basemen. Temper any excitement you might get when looking at their historical statistics.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some first basemen.

Billy Butler
Butler continued to increase his walk rate while simultaneously cutting back on the K’s. The batting average is always there, but owners are still waiting for the power to come along. He’s only 24, so a power surge is still possible, but it’s probably going to take a slight adjustment in his swing, and that may not be worth the risk. Somewhere down the road, he has a 30 HR season or two in him, but how long are you willing to wait?
Crude 2011 Projection: .315/.395, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as he keeps churning out a high average, I’m willing to wait for more power.

Kendry Morales
Morales had a chance to duplicate his 2009 success until he snapped his leg like a twig. He’ll still be in his peak years when he returns, so the leg is likely the only thing to hold his value back.
Crude 2011 Projection: .285/.345, 28 HR
Verdict: Keep. If you got him in the fourth, he’s still worth it.

Matt LaPorta
It feels like I’ve been here before. You? For someone who’s supposed to be a great power hitter, LaPorta has a sub-.400 slugging percentage. The only good thing to come out of this year is his improved BB%, and a ton of MLB experience. He’s still only 25, so maybe he’s a late bloomer?
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.320, 16 HR
Verdict: Cut. Not looking like a stud, may never even be average.

Justin Smoak
He disappointed early this season, but Smoak has been on fire since he was recalled. He’s kept the strikeouts to a reasonable level, is working walks and is still hitting for power. Sure, it’s a small sample, but I like what I’m seeing right now.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. Too much potential to let him go.

Ike Davis
I’m not going to lie and say I saw this coming. Davis has been very good this year, and has gotten overlooked quite a bit. He has the Mets job going forward, and will be a big part in their rebuilding plan.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.365, 23 HR
Verdict: Keep. He may never be a superstar, but he’ll put up good numbers.

If you have a first basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Some people are still fighting in their finals, or trying to squeeze some life out of their last few at-bats, so we’ll do a few last waiver wires. This one is themed by statistical profiles!

Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / Stolen Bases / Runs
There’s no way we can talk about batting average right now and not talk about Mike Aviles (38% owned). Yes, we profiled him just last week, but he’s found that patented Aviles magic once again – his .358 batting average in September is nice. In stretches like this, his low walk rate is a boon: he’s had more at-bats in which to put up those hits, and four multi-hit games in the past week shows it’s working right now. He doesn’t steal many bases, though, so you could also give Cliff Pennington (10% owned) a look in Oakland – he’s getting on base right now and stealing bases to boot. He’s had a nice year, and if he could cut that strikeout rate just a smidgen (19.3% this year, 19.9% career), he might be able to push that batting average up a few points. Franklin Gutierrez is walking a little more in September (5 walks) than he has since his freakish May (20 walks), is playing in a nice park in Texas the next few weeks (against a catcher core that gives up a 67% success rate on stolen bases), and has five stolen bases in his past two weeks. He’s a good shallow league option (26% owned). Ryan Kalish (3% owned) also deserves a mention as the Red Sox fall out of contention, but he’s not quite playing every day, isn’t walking enough just yet (5.6%) and is also batting low in the lineup when he’s in. Finally, deeper leaguers have to look the way of Peter Bourjos (1% owned) for speed and speed alone. He’s still playing most days and he’s swiped four bags in the past two weeks. Beyond improving poor plate discipline stats (3.6% walk rate, 22.4% strikeout rate), Bourjos could also use some regression to the mean in his BABIP (.231). At least he’s gotten on base in five of his last 13 plate appearances and his excellent defense (+36.1 UZR/150!).

Slugging Percentage / Home Runs / RBI
Now we’re looking for boppers. Ty Wigginton (54% owned) is a nice power pickup because he’s playing well and is eligible all over the diamond. The Orioles’ infielder has been wiggin’ out a little at the plate – his strikeout rate climbed almost 7% from last year – but his power is back in line with career norms (.173 ISO, .180 career) and he finishes the year at home, where he has a decent .269/.318/.455 line. He has struggled a little out of the gate, but Pedro Alvarez (19% owned) has been much better in September (.292/.354/.562) and could be your lightning in a bottle – which is, let’s face it, what you are looking for in the final week. The reason we can be excited about this final stretch is that Alvarez has been struggling with the whiff all year (34.9%) but has really cut down on those Ks this month (24.7%), and with nice power already (.200 ISO) and more on the way (.251 ISO in minor leagues), that lower strikeout rate will play just fine. We’ve given Michael Morse (9% owned) a lot of love recently for his power, but he deserves another shout-out here. John Bowker (1% owned) and Lucas Duda (0% owned) are both available in most leagues and could run into some home runs this week as their teams look to next year. Bowker might be the better bet – he’s in his peak years at 27 years old, and has all that minor league promise yet to be tapped into (.198 career minor league ISO, up to .264 over his final two stops). On the other hand, the Bucs draw decent pitching staffs in Florida and St. Louis while the Mets face Milwaukee and Washington over the final week.

With the end of (fantasy baseball) days coming, some owners will need to look towards next year. Here are three first baseman who are widely available, and could provide some spark for you in the coming years at a very cheap price.

Brandon Allen | D’Backs | 1% Owned
Allen’s game is very simple, and reminds you of another Arizona slugger. He will hit home runs, and strike out more than any human being should, and will have an average walk rate. The hope is that he can keep the batting average above .250, allowing him to at least have some value to your team. Allen’s not playing everyday…yet. Adam LaRoche will likely try to find another home this offseason, freeing up the first base job for Allen and his stick. If he can stay healthy next year and get the bulk of the playing time, I wouldn’t be shocked to see at least 20 homers with a batting average hovering around the .245 mark. It’s not great, but if you’re a rebuilding team, it’s a step in the right direction.

Freddie Freeman | Braves | 0% Owned
While Freeman’s minor league numbers are nothing to laugh at, just glancing at them on the surface doesn’t make you want to scream “top prospect!” However, Freeman’s minor league career consists of hitting well at levels that are advanced for his age, something that cannot, and should not be overlooked. He doesn’t walk as much as you’d hope, but he has limited the strikeouts nicely and has provided enough pop to have Braves fans dreaming about him in next year’s lineup. Freeman’s only 20, so he still has lots of room to develop as a player, and the Braves may not be ready to have him make the next step. Keep an eye on him (and Derrek Lee) this offseason, but Freeman is a nice guy to keep stashed in your system.

Justin Smoak | Mariners | 3% Owned
We don’t have much new information when it comes to Smoak, except an update on how he’s done in a new minor league system (and ballpark). Smoak has a .271/.377/.481 line as a Rainier, hitting seven dingers in only 159 plate appearances. If he can work on limiting his strikeouts, his line drive stroke and pop will translate over beautifully into the big leagues. The Mariners are going to give him plenty of chances to play everyday next year, and it could be a big one for the Smoak Monster.

A post holiday hangover edition of “Corner Infielders.”

Lyle Overbay | Blue Jays | 7% Owned
Overbay has been consistently good during his career, and has been valued as an above-average hitter six out of the last seven years. In a contract year, Overbay has turned up the power and could set a new career high in home runs. While his batting average isn’t great (and this is his first year with a sub-20% LD%), he’s still a decent fantasy producer. Overbay is a better option in AL-only leagues, but you can get away with him playing in a deeper standard league.

Todd Helton | Rockies | 24% Owned
If you can believe it, this is Helton’s first full season with an OBP lower than .380. That kind of consistency is hard to find, but Helton is one of the few hitters who have been able to produce at that level. With a four home run month in August, Helton may be showing us that the power has not completely disappeared from his repertoire. While he’s not the stud he used to be, he’s still worthy of a roster spot if you’re looking for some upside (Todd Helton and upside? Let the ridicule commence).

Casey Blake | Dodgers | 39% Owned
Blake’s long been a late round favorite of mine, and those days may not be behind him. While his numbers are less than stellar this year, Blake is still a consistent producer who’s cost is minimal. If you’re in a bind, give Blake a shot at third base.

Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 250% Owned
Just a friendly reminder that A-Rod returned from the DL on Sunday, so don’t forget to put him back into your lineup.