Archive for First Base

We are lost in the sea (puddle?) that is the small sample size portion of the season. We’re trying to find a mooring, some stat that we can really use to identify believable results. This is where I link you to the pieces about stabilization of stats, wipe my hands demonstratively and end the piece with a leaderboard.

Wait, I am going to do something like that, but with a few words of caution and analysis as well. For one, it seems to get lost that stabilization is merely the point at which the stat itself is more meaningful going forward than the league average. In other words, league average regression is still meaningful after this point, and the stat itself is still meaningful before that point. It’s all a continuum.

Instead, use the list as a way to judge the relative importance of stats. Easy enough. We’re past the point of stabilization for swing rates — not for reach rates or contact rates — and we’re not at the point where ground ball and fly ball rates stabilize. And yet, we can use swing rates, and ground ball and fly ball numbers, to judge players, because those stats are more meaningful than the others.

There’s also a second level here that shouldn’t be swept aside. Swinging less and hitting more fly balls is not — by itself — the greatest marker for improved performance. Some players should swing more and hit more grounders, of course. But here we’re going to look for guys that could benefit from better plate discipline and who could gain more power from more fly balls.

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The American League’s first player of the week was, you guessed it, Tyler White. The same Tyler White who most people did not project being even the back-up first baseman coming into spring training is absolutely raking so far. Much of the talk regarding fantasy value for prospects who surprised early has been going towards Trevor Story, but Tyler White is another player who is garnering significant attention. Last week, when I wrote about undrafted first basemen, White was owned in 36% of CBS leagues. Today? 87%. August Fagerstrom did a wonderful job developing comps for White, which I still think are applicable. What I want to do today is try to assess his fantasy value for you.

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Rather than start changing and editing my initial tiers after less than a week of games, I am going to take a page out of Justin Mason’s book and go over some of those undrafted first basemen. The guys you had no room for or simply didn’t think about as those last couple rounds just flew by you.

Unless you are in very deep leagues, you should still have better options available to you at first base. These are guys you should reserve for deeper leagues or if you completed punted on first base or suffered an injury. In no way are these guys you should build your squad around. I tried to key on guys who are garnering relatively regular playing time and can help you in those counting stats, with the last two guys giving a potential boost in BA and OBP.
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“Microphone Check 1,2, what is this?”

Well, it’s not a five foot assassin, but instead it’s my first run at a tiered ranking of the first baseman. Also a week late in my tribute; sorry about that. I appreciate any and all feedback, but do keep in mind these are subjective and based on a predicative nature. Just because I have somebody tiered lower than you do doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go with what you think is best. Naturally. Also, players with a star next to their name played less than 20 games at first base last season, so they may or may not be eligible depending on your format, and they may or may not receive eligibility during the season.

For the astute and avid Rotograph readers, you will notice these rankings differ from the staff rankings we did earlier in March. I hadn’t done as much research for those at the time, so these are more in line with what I think at this moment. Which may change in ten minutes. Alas, the fun of rankings.

In the spirit of subjectivity and my love for music, I have created tiers based on my personal favorite jazz styles. In no way am I saying my top tier is the best style of jazz; just my personal favorite. In a perfect world, we could all somehow discuss jazz and baseball together. Here is my first attempt at doing so. Keep it real!

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In 2015, just 41 players hit 25 homers or more. Lowering the cut line to 20 homers bumps the total of players to reach that threshold up to 64. As one of the standard scoring categories, homers are desired, but there are only so many dingers to go around. Getting top-shelf power is usually attached to a premium draft selection, but the following three players hit 24 or more homers in 2015 and are being selected after pick 265 on average in NFBC drafts as of March 24th.

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ZiPS hates him and Steamer thinks he will be exactly average, albeit in limited plate appearances, but signs are pointing in the right direction for Travis Shaw. Shaw is currently competing for regular plate appearances with Pablo Sandoval at third base. He was expected to get some work in left field but that has apparently either been halted or nixed as he continues his battles with Sandoval at the hot corner. While that can be seen as a negative in his overall utility, I see it as a positive in the likelihood of him taking plate appearances away from Sandoval.
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Last week, I brought back the Pod’s Picks series, though renamed it this time since not every player was technically a “pick”. Pod’s Picks and Pans compares my ranking to the consensus (excluding my rank) at each position to determine who I am most bullish and bearish on relative to the rest of the rankers. Thanks to commenter bubba munga, I have calculated the rankings difference using a new method, involving the LN function on Excel. This properly weighs the more significant difference between picks five and 10 versus 35 and 41, despite the latter pair being six picks apart, as opposed to just give in the former.

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Each week until the start of the season, we’re looking at deep league options currently going late in drafts or not at all. Last week we covered catchers and this week we’re onto first basemen. In addition to the two titular-featured players, I’ve thrown in a third as a bonus who’s being drafted in the middle rounds of standard leagues but going well outside the top 12 at the position.

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I’ve been batting over .300 on bold predictions for a while, and I’ve also been getting crap for not being bold enough. So, in the honor of So So Def, I’ll stop slacking on my pimping, and I’ll turn it up.

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Imagine having Mike Trout on your team. Seriously, just think about it for a second. An easy 30 home runs. Roughly a .300/.400/.600 triple-slash line, the baseball equivalent of basketball’s 50-40-90 club. Some stolen bases. Solid defense from a premium position. Kisses babies, shakes hands, frolics with puppies. All that good stuff.

Now imagine surrounding him – he of the four consecutive top-two finishes in American League MVP voting – with a supporting cast that still grades you as below-average on offense, with a 96 weighted runs created-plus and a pedestrian .307 OBP, after including Trout to bring the numbers up. Splitting his time between second and third in the order, Trout managed “just” 90 RBI, in part because the team’s lead-off hitters OBPd .280 (!!) and the team’s other regular No. 2 hitter, Kole Calhoun, struggled to get on base in that spot, too.

It has to be frustrating, having the best player in baseball and missing the playoffs because of the team around him. Not that the Angels were bad – they won 85 games despite getting outscored – and the nice thing about employing Trout is that you’re always going to project as “pretty decent” at worst. Still, it’s not exactly the most exciting lineup around him again in 2016.
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