Last season around this time I wrote an article showcasing a recipe that would help select starting pitching in drafts. I queried the heck out of a dataset containing 2022 end-of-season pitcher data and 2023 projected data, slicing and splicing the list down to an interesting group of pitchers, each having done or expected to do the following:

A SwStr% in 2022 of at least 11%. (2022 MLB SP average – 10.7%)
A K/9 projection (steamer) of eight or better. (2022 MLB SP average – 8.18)
Positive pVals (Pitch Info) on at least two pitches in 2022.
An ADP greater than 100.

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2024 Fantasy Busts – Zimmerman’s Picks

by Jeff Zimmerman

February 14, 2024

I don’t consider busts to be players who have no fantasy value but guys who will disappoint compared to where they are being drafted. There is no reason to take a chance on the player with similar options at similar costs.

Usually, the market will find any flaw in a player and bury them. Because of this, it’s easier to find a reason for a player to beat his draft cost than exceed it. But just as many players will be under their projections than over them by the season’s end.

For busts, we divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth.

Changelog

2/14/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
$ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

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2023 Projection Systems Comparison – A Game Theory Approach

by Ariel Cohen

February 14, 2024

Introduction

In 2018, I introduced a game theory approach for comparing baseball projection systems. Proudly, the original article was nominated for Baseball Article of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). Today, I am proud to release the same in-depth research for the sixth consecutive year!

This is not a typical statistical analysis. There won’t be any Chi-squared tests, nor will I calculate Type I or Type II errors. Forget about mean squared errors or any hypothesis testing.

My methodology does not incorporate a statistical model. Instead, it looks to determine the profitability potential of each projection system by simulating what would have happened in a fantasy auction draft. It games the projections.

What do I mean by this?

Let’s think about what happens in a real fantasy [pun intended] baseball draft auction.

Suppose that Jared Cross himself (or anyone exclusively using the Steamer projections) walks into a rotisserie auction prior to the 2023 baseball season. Let’s say that Jared decides to participate in an NFBC auction league. Mr. Cross would take his projections and run a valuation method through them to obtain auction prices. He would generate a list that looked something like this …

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Catcher ADP Market Report: 2/12/2024

by Justin Mason

February 14, 2024

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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Mining the News (2/13/24)

by Jeff Zimmerman

February 13, 2024

American League

Angels

• Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com still sees Carlos Estévez as the closer.

Estévez is expected to be the closer again this season, although he did struggle in the second half. Stephenson was the club’s biggest addition in the offseason, signing for three years and $33 million. He’ll be the club’s top setup reliever, and could take over as closer if Estévez falters.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Auction Strategy Episode w/ Jeff Erickson

by Ariel Cohen

February 13, 2024

The Auction Strategy episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jeff Erickson

Strategy Section – Auction Strategy

General Auction Strategy
- Rules to live by
- Differences to snake drafts
- Online vs. in-person auctions
- Time of day
- Other players’ tendancies
- Looking around at the auction table
- Most important items to keep track of during an auction
Nomination Strategy
- Have a purpose
- Reasons for nominating who you are most interested in buying
- Plan A / Plan B nomination
Market Values
- Assessing the market
- AAVs / ADP$
- Hotspots
What to pay for players
- Strike Prices
- Paying more for players who fit your team’s build
Money plan
- Hitter / Pitcher % Split
- Stars & Scrubs vs. Spread the Risk
- Unorthodox strategies
Money management
- Pacing yourself in the auction
- Buying out of “the break”
In-draft adjustments
- Tracking scarcities
- Tracking inflation
Bidding
- General procedure
- Starting bid
- +2 bids
- Bidding often
- Timing of bids
- Price enforcing
Other tidbits
- Pay attention to the other bids
- Clogging the DH spot
- Shohei Ohtani is still pitcher eligible
- Need to get bargains

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Mining the News (2/12/24)

by Jeff Zimmerman

February 12, 2024

American League

Angels

• General manager Perry Minasian stated that Nolan Schanuel will have to earn his first base job.

[“]But Nolan’s earned the right to have the opportunity to come into camp and compete for the first-base job. He’s put a lot of work in this offseason.” Read the rest of this entry »