Archive for Featured

FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 24)


Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (9/5/25)


Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

A few days ago, I asked for any improvements for this lineup’s article. The biggest takeaway was to “not change a thing”. Some people didn’t like all the stats, so today’s edition has none except games played.

American League

Angels

Niko Kavadas and Oswald Peraza split time at first base.

Chris Taylor with three straight starts since coming off the IL. Read the rest of this entry »


Pitcher Playing Time Changes: September 5, 2025

Jim Rassol – Imagn Images

Happy Friday, and welcome to the first Pitcher Playing Time Changes rundown of September! As always, there’s a lot to go over, with the injury hits continuing to come and teams like the Mets making significant rotation changes.

Change in Projected % of Team’s Remaining GS, 8/29 to 9/5
Name Team Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Andrew Alvarez WSN 1% 14% 13% Welcome to MLB!
Sawyer Gipson-Long DET 2% 15% 13% Back from IL
Kai-Wei Teng SFG 4% 13% 9% Took Whisenhunt’s spot
Valente Bellozo MIA 1% 10% 9% Moving to rotation
Caden Dana LAA 8% 16% 8% Took Anderson’s spot
Luis Severino ATH 10% 18% 8% Back from IL
Pablo López MIN 11% 17% 6% Back from IL
Jason Alexander HOU 11% 16% 5% Keeping rotation spot with Arrighetti out
Adam Mazur MIA 8% 13% 5% Up from AAA
Carson Seymour SFG 6% 11% 5% Holding onto rotation spot
Brandon Sproat NYM 1% 6% 5% Making MLB debut Sunday
Luis Garcia HOU 8% 13% 5% Back from IL
Mike Burrows PIT 18% 13% -5% Back inbullpen hybrid/piggyback role
Roki Sasaki LAD 6% 0% -6% Still struggling on rehab, probably won’t have a spot
Jack Kochanowicz LAA 10% 3% -7% Optioned to AAA
Carson Whisenhunt SFG 14% 5% -9% Back strain
Kodai Senga NYM 18% 8% -10% Getting skipped, could be optioned to AAA
Mick Abel MIN 13% 2% -11% Optioned to AAA
MacKenzie Gore WSN 19% 6% -13% Shoulder inflammation
Spencer Arrighetti HOU 14% 0% -14% Elbow inflammation probably ends regular season
Chris Paddack DET 17% 2% -15% Moved to bullpen
Aaron Civale CHC 19% 3% -16% In bullpen after waiver claim
Edward Cabrera MIA 18% 0% -18% Elbow sprain almost certainly ends year
Tyler Anderson LAA 19% 0% -19% Probably done for year with oblique strain

 

 

Change in Projected % of RP IP, 8/29 to 9/5
Name Team PT Change Reason
Joel Payamps MIL 425% Contract selected
Roansy Contreras COL 317% Claimed from BAL, should get long look
Kyle Harrison BOS 225% Path back to MLB this year is likelier as RP
Tylor Megill NYM 92% Return is likelier to be as RP than SP at this point
Trevor Megill MIL 79% Should return after minimum IL stay
Chris Martin TEX 68% Back from IL
Trey Yesavage TOR 67% Could make playoff roster as RP
Fraser Ellard CHW 49% Back from AAA
Ryan Brasier CHC 47% Starting rehab assignment
Alex Vesia LAD 39% Began rehab assignment
Michael Soroka CHC 36% Throwing 95 in bullpen session, could be relief weapon when healthy
Ryan Thompson ARI 36% Back from IL
Dustin May BOS 33% Moved to bullpen/hybrid role
Alex Cobb DET 33% If he (finally) makes Tigers debut, will be as RP
Chris Murphy BOS 33% Back from AAA
Robert Gasser MIL 32% Moved to bullpen on rehab
Brock Stewart LAD -33% Cortisone injection stalls rehab
Jordan Hicks BOS -35% Shoulder injury
Sam Moll CIN -41% Optioned to AAA
James McArthur KCR -100% Still not on rehab, season looks over
Shelby Miller MIL -100% Likely needs TJ
Yimi García TOR -100% Season-ending elbow surgery
Carson Fulmer LAA -100% Moved to 60-day IL
Jason Adam SDP -100% Season-ending knee injury
Tyler Zuber MIA -100% Moved to 60-day IL
Randy Rodríguez SFG -100% Elbow sprain, recommended for TJ
Beau Brieske DET -100% Shut down for season with elbow injury

Mining the News (9/5/25)


Matt Marton-Imagn Images

• Clay Davenport examined the drop in hitter production from AAA to the majors. From 2021 to 2025, he found the following adjustments.

Stat: Adjustment
AVG: -.040
OBP: -.046
SLG: -.099

Additionally, he found:

There is a small tendency for young players to do a little better than older players.

A good read on what has and hasn’t changed for hitters making that last transition to the majors.

American League

Guardians

• The team is going with a six-man rotation.

Cleveland will deploy a six-man rotation for the foreseeable future, manager Stephen Vogt said on Tuesday ahead of the Guardians’ 11-7 loss to the Red Sox. Joey Cantillo will start in Wednesday’s series finale at Fenway Park, joining Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Cecconi, Logan Allen로건 and Parker Messick in the rotation.

“We’re going to go with the six-man rotation for a little while,” Vogt said. “Just with the starting pitching, where they are innings wise and where they are in their career. And we have 24 games in 24 days, so we thought it was a good opportunity for us to get them … they’ll all be on five days’ rest throughout this long process.”

Rangers

Jacob Latz will stay in the rotation.

Bochy said Latz will remain in the rotation for the foreseeable future, a relatively new development considering he has just six career starts in 78 appearances.

The last few weeks have been an adjustment for Latz, who didn’t even find out he was starting against the Diamondbacks until Monday. Even so, he said he was ready to go regardless of when his number was called, whether it was as a starter or out of the bullpen.

In five starts (23 relief appearances) this summer, the 29-year-old lefty has a 3.38 ERA (4.32 xFIP), 1.17 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9 in 24 IP.

White Sox

Brooks Baldwin adjusted his approach during the season.

But the switch-hitter also has executed something offensively that’s tough to do in-season – make meaningful changes to approach and technique and have them work immediately. Baldwin showed off those changes yet again with three hits against the Twins, as the White Sox (51-88) won for a third straight time and won a third straight game at Target Field (dating back to April 24) for the first time since 2021.

“It’s hard to adjust in season, but sometimes you have to do it when things aren’t going the right way,” Baldwin told MLB.com. “I made the choice to change and stick with it and go with it the rest of the year, and it’s done well.

“Just like the approach wise and kind of stance at the plate, spread out and get a little wider and shorten everything up a little bit and stay to the opposite field. It’s not really like I’m trying to hit everything to left field or left-center, but mentally I’m trying to stay on the ball that way. And then if it presents itself to pull it, you can still pull it.”

All his stats are showing 1H to 2H improvements

Stat: 1H, 2H
BB%: 5%, 8%
K%: 28%, 22%
OPS: .628, .802
Contact%: 77%, 80%,
avgEV: 90.4, 90.7

National League

Braves

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 believes his struggles stem from coming back too early from his back surgery.

Kim believes coming back quickly from that surgery contributed to his back issues this season, but said he’s fine now.

Bryce Elder reworked his slider.

Elder noted the work on his slider as a reason for his stronger efforts.

He said he’d always thrown one that was “kind of nose-down gyro,” but that over time, he began to throw it differently. Elder “really looked into the nose being up, and the ball was just spinning right in the heart of the plate and people were hitting it.”

The slider was a pitch he felt was his top swing-and-miss offering, but he wasn’t getting those whiffs at the same level.

However, Elder has noticed progress with the slider since about the end of June. Six of his top seven single-game whiff rates with it this season have come since the calendar flipped to July — including Wednesday’s 38.4 percent — giving that credence.

I couldn’t find any signs of improvement on his end. Additionally, he is not throwing his slider as much. Before August 1st (beginning of Elder’s hot stretch), he threw his slider 38% of the time and 29% after that point.

Cardinals

Nolan Gorman implemented a change in early June.

Gorman didn’t play in any of the three games against the Royals. Instead, he took a couple of workout days in the batting cages and tried to put his trust in what felt comfortable. He ditched the toe-tap swing he started with at the beginning of the season and reverted to a leg kick while committing to a more selective approach.

Soon after, tangible results followed.

“Knowing where I was with playing time, I knew I couldn’t just go try to fix something every single day,” Gorman said. “I had to trust one thing and run with it. In Kansas City, that’s where I really started feeling good. That’s where I felt things really flipped. I was like, ‘I need to run with this, I need to keep it.’”

When evaluating Gorman, the Cardinals’ coaching staff likes to look at chase rate, strikeout percentage and walk rate to ensure Gorman is improving his plate discipline and fine-tuning his approach. Similar to nearly every power hitter in the modern game, with homers come strikeouts. Swing-and-miss will essentially always be a part of Gorman’s game, but it doesn’t have to define it.

Before the change, he was batting .187/.280/.297. Since the adjustment, .231/.329/.446.

• The manager wants Jordan Walker to take the team’s advice and improve several aspects of his game.

Not only would the Cardinals like to see a strong finish to the season from the former top prospect in MLB, but they also want to see [Walker] be more receptive to making the changes needed to potentially make him more consistent at the plate. And, quite frankly, the club’s patience seems to be wearing thin with the 23-year-old outfielder’s receptiveness to the changes they have asked him to make.

“We have not seen the consistency that we would have hoped for by now,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said. “Our hope is that changes. He’s still young, and this could flip at any moment. We’ve seen other players where that’s the case — on this team or another — where they are an offseason away. But there’s real work to be done and there’s a real level of dedication and consistency that needs to come with that.

“I need to see Jordan have a sense of urgency for the things that need to take place to give him consistent results. That goes with his moves toward the ball, his preparation in the cage and his approach in games.”

“Real adjustments have to be made, physically and approach-wise,” he said. “[Brown] is doing a really nice job of providing him ways of doing that. Now, he has to take hold of that and put it in play.”

Cubs

Michael Soroka’s fastball velocity is in the mid-90s.

That’s encouraging since Soroka’s velocity dropped 3 mph after joining the Cubs

Dodgers

Roki Sasaki will remain in the minors to gain some consistency.

Given the results, and that the Dodgers have no immediate need for him at the big league level, it seems likely that Sasaki will remain with Oklahoma City for at least another start.

“Guys here are pitching well,” manager Dave Roberts said before Sasaki’s outing. “I’m not sure what that means for Roki after this one. Let’s just get through this one. Pitch well, [get] healthy, and then we’ll make a decision.”

After sitting around 96 mph with his four-seamer in his previous two starts, Sasaki averaged 94.4 mph with the pitch on Tuesday. He maxed out at 96.9 mph.

“The velocity needs to be consistent. The strike throwing needs to be consistent. Just having overall command,” Roberts said recently. “The focus certainly is different in the big leagues vs. Triple-A, which is totally fair. But I do think that where he’s at, performing and dominating Triple-A hitting is something we should expect.”

Teoscar Hernández’s groin and foot aren’t yet healed.

Concerns about Hernández’s focus go away if he’s hitting. This is not a storyline if he is putting up the .840 OPS he put up a year ago, or the .933 OPS he had before landing on the injured list in May with a strained groin. That halted what was set to be a strong encore to last year’s success. So did a bruise he suffered when he fouled a ball off his left foot more than a month after returning. The resulting struggles raised one of two questions: either Hernández was still hurt (or trying to avoid reinjuring himself) or the injuries had disrupted whatever rhythm he’d had to start the season.

Hernández’s groin and his foot are “100 percent,” he said.

“For me, it’s more being on the field,” Hernández said. “For me, being hurt is more frustrating than having a bad year. I’d rather be on the field and having a bad year than not being on the field and just fighting back and forth.”

Pirates

Nick Yorke will play some outfield.

Nick Yorke, the team’s No. 11 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, was recalled as part of the expanded September rosters and got the start at first base on Tuesday.

Yorke could also play second base and corner outfield, Kelly said pregame …


Starting Pitcher Chart – September 5th-7th, 2025

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I know the Cubs game is going already today, but here’s the rest of the weekend!

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 4th, 2025

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Pardon me for missing my chat today, I had a doctor’s appt. (nothing crazy or worrisome) and that was the only window they could squeeze me into this week. I posted a notice on yesterday’s chart, but it wasn’t until the morning so I imagine that not everyone saw it and some were wondering where the chat was this afternoon. 

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Big Kid Adds (Week 23)

Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Chart – September 3rd, 2025

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I will NOT be able to conduct my chat today. I have a doctor appointment (nothing crazy) and this was the one window they could fit me in this week. 

Board tonight, comments in the AM!

  • After a couple poor tune-up starts fresh off the IL, Kirby has 3.26 ERA/1.10 WHIP/19% K-BB in his L16
  • Eury had some hiccups in Aug, including a nightmare last night (0.7 IP/5 ER) but he still had 2 QS and logged 3 Ws; barring another mega-dud here, his WAS/DET 2-step next wk should be super appealing
  • Ray’s velo was down for his starts at MIL and at SDP, but it was back up to 93.7 mph (+0.2 v. season mark) last time out despite the poor results
  • Horton might actually deserve to be just behind Kirby if not #1 himself; since allowing 4 ER at MIN on July 9th, he’s allowed 4 ER in his L8 combined: 0.86 ERA/0.88 WHIP/16% K-BB in 42 IP
  • I’ve been cautious w/Shohei and I think rightfully so to this point, but he reached 5 IP for first time this yr and draws a great matchup to do it again! Always a risk to go fewer than 5 IP, but confidently putting him in the rotation again
  • Bieber’s had 2 great starts off the IL w/15 Ks and 0 BB… he’ll likely have a hiccup at some point as most injury returners do, but I can’t see sitting him anywhere right now
  • Springs hasn’t had the same crazy home/road splits like some of his Athletics teammates, but he is still better on the road (3.66 ERA/1.12 WHIP) and I don’t mind giving him a shot in STL
  • The Fermin/Bergert & Kolek trade was a small but impactful that both teams might end up very happy with when it’s all done. Bergert has continued his success w/KCR, posting a shiny 2.54 ERA/1.02 WHIP in 28.3 IP and while his 15% K-BB isn’t amazing, it is up nearly 5 pts from his SDP work (2.78 ERA/1.18 WHIP/11% K-BB)
  • Cortes/Houser/Littell are definitely dicier outside of the deeper leagues, but have enough intrigue to be viable-if-risky streamers in 12s and lower
  • Zebby/Povich/Mize/Ashcraft/Leiter are a group of interesting streamers with tangible upside, but substantial risk tied to their inconsistency, matchup, or both. Zebby’s date w/the White Sox is the easiest of the group but they aren’t the pushover they were in the 1H
  • Q is scary v. PHI and honestly if I’m giving him 1-x, I guess Nola can get 1, too… both are very scary with substantial downside where you’re really hoping whichever you use can snake a Win
  • Liberatore to Alexander contains some intriguing streaming names but I’m trying to avoid duds down the stretch to the best of my ability and all of these guys scare me for one reason or another:
    • Liberatore faded after a strong start and ATH offense is frisky
    • Cantillo’s WHIP is horrendous & BOS is a solid offense
    • May just isn’t someone I can trust anywhere so best of luck if you’re taking that plunge
    • Gallen is similar to May in that respect where his name value keeps people coming back and both have solid matchups, but their skills scare me entirely too much

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: September 2, 2025

Joe Nicholson – Imagn Images

Welcome to September’s first Position Player Playing Time Changes roundup! Waiver claims and some unfortunate injuries are the highlight of this week’s summary, as well as a notable prospect recall in the Royals’ Carter Jensen.

% Change in Remaining Projected Playing Time, 8/26 to 9/2
Name Team Positions Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Cam Devanney PIT 3B,2B,SS 8% 72% 64% Called up to MLB
Jose Iglesias SDP SS, 3B, 2B 30% 83% 53% Filling in for Bogaerts
Carson Williams TBR SS 22% 75% 53% Kim claimed by ATL
Tim Elko CHW 1B,DH 12% 41% 29% Helping to replace Vargas
Jake McCarthy ARI RF,CF,LF 47% 74% 27% Gurriel injury
Riley Adams WSN C,1B 33% 59% 26% Continuing to hit well + Ruiz uncertainty
Mason McCoy SDP SS 1% 26% 25% Helping to replace Bogaerts
Jorge Barrosa ARI RF,CF,LF 4% 27% 23% Gurriel injury
Will Robertson CHW RF,LF 6% 29% 23% Robert injury
Jordan Lawlar ARI 3B, DH, SS 47% 70% 23% Called back up
Michael Helman TEX CF, LF, SS 20% 42% 22% Hot hitting lately
Brooks Baldwin CHW LF,RF,CF,SS,3B,2B 44% 66% 22% Hot hitting + versatility
Jackson Chourio MIL RF, DH, CF, LF 70% 91% 21% Back from IL
Michael A. Taylor CHW RF, CF, LF 47% 67% 20% Robert injury
Carter Jensen KCR C 8% 28% 20% Welcome to MLB!
Liover Peguero PIT SS,1B,3B,2B 50% 69% 19% IKF claimed by TOR
Max Muncy LAD 3B, 1B, DH 40% 58% 18% Nearing return from injury
Bryan Ramos CHW 3B, DH 13% 31% 18% Called up to MLB
Luis Matos SFG LF,RF,CF 45% 63% 18% Continuing to play pretty regularly
Connor Norby MIA 2B,3B 61% 79% 18% Back from IL
Ildemaro Vargas ARI 2B, 3B, LF, SS 16% 33% 17% Playing most days against LHP
Kyle Manzardo CLE 1B, DH 76% 93% 17% Santana gone opens up even more PT
Javier Sanoja MIA SS,3B,LF,2B,CF 31% 45% 14% Hot hitting + versatility
Angel Martínez CLE 3B,SS,CF,2B 41% 54% 13% Versatility keeps him playing often
Ha-Seong Kim ATL SS, 2B 62% 75% 13% Should be unquestioned starting SS for ATL
Jackson Merrill SDP CF,DH 77% 90% 13% Back from IL
Henry Davis PIT C, DH 46% 59% 13% Getting more starts lately
Curtis Mead CHW 3B, 2B, 1B, DH 49% 61% 12% Vargas injury
Lane Thomas CLE CF,RF 43% 54% 11% Took BP + ran the bases, getting closer to return
Blaze Alexander ARI SS,3B,2B,DH, CF 59% 70% 11% Newfound OF versatility + hot hitting
Richie Palacios TBR DH,2B,LF 9% 20% 11% Finally back from IL
Joey Ortiz MIL SS, 2B 78% 89% 11% Activated from IL
Pedro Pagés STL C 51% 62% 11% Pozo injury
Nasim Nuñez WSN SS,2B 3% 13% 10% Back in MLB
Victor Scott II STL CF 48% 58% 10% Activated from IL
Tyler Locklear ARI 1B, DH 60% 70% 10% Smith injury opens up more PT
Owen Caissie CHC RF, LF, DH 12% 2% -10% Optioned to AAA
Jhostynxon Garcia BOS LF,1B,RF,CF 14% 4% -10% Optioned to AAA
Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN 1B,DH 16% 6% -10% Future PT remains unclear
Francisco Alvarez NYM C,DH 48% 37% -11% Fractured pinky on rehab pushes back return a bit
Blake Perkins MIL CF, RF, LF 33% 21% -12% Chourio activated
Graham Pauley MIA 3B,DH 29% 17% -12% Norby activated
Luke Maile KCR C 32% 19% -13% Jensen called up
Joey Bart PIT C,DH 57% 44% -13% Losing PT to Davis
Maximo Acosta MIA SS,2B,3B 22% 9% -13% Norby activated
Keibert Ruiz WSN C 42% 28% -14% Still not on rehab assignment
Yohel Pozo STL C,DH 45% 29% -16% Concussion
Alec Burleson STL RF, 1B, DH, LF 77% 60% -17% Wrist inflammation
Anthony Seigler MIL 3B, 2B 27% 8% -19% Ortiz activated
Dane Myers MIA RF, CF 42% 8% -34% Oblique strain
Carlos Santana CHC 1B, DH 70% 15% -55% Will play way more niche role with Cubs
Pavin Smith ARI 1B, DH 64% 8% -56% Quad strain
Miguel Vargas CHW 3B, 1B, DH 87% 28% -59% Wrist sprain
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI LF, DH 88% 23% -65% Knee injury, MRI incoming
Nick Allen ATL SS 90% 23% -67% Will lose a ton of PT to Kim
Isiah Kiner-Falefa TOR SS, 3B 86% 17% -69% Unclear where his PT will come from with TOR
Corey Seager TEX SS, DH 83% 13% -70% Appendectomy
Luis Robert Jr. CHW CF, DH 90% 16% -74% Hamstring strain
Xander Bogaerts SDP SS, DH 92% 9% -83% Fractured foot

Hot Hand or Hard Data: Is Recent Performance Weighted Enough in Pitching Projections?

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

When setting expectations for pitchers for a given week, it can admittedly be hard to trust the projections and ignore recent performance–whether ‘recent’ includes the last month, or the full 2025 season.  Generally speaking, should you trust a typical weekly projection that accounts for the true talent level of the pitcher and the context of the matchup when setting your lineups for the upcoming week?  Or is it better to focus on a pitcher’s performance from the last month or from the current season and ride the hot hand? Put differently, do typical projections place enough weight on recency?

This article sets out to answer this question.

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