Archive for Featured

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 634 – Positional Preview: Catcher

1/28/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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A Minor Review of 2018: Tampa Bay Rays

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Tampa Bay Rays

If you were perusing the series in 2015 you would have read this:

The Graduate: Blake Snell (LHP): Control has been Snell’s nemesis throughout his career — save for 2015 — and it came back to haunt him during his MLB debut in 2016. His 3.54 ERA was impressive — and speaks to his raw potential — when you consider his walk rate of more than five batters per nine innings. He’ll also need to better leverage his 6-4 frame to generate more ground balls after being an extreme-fly-ball pitcher in the AL East. Still, Snell succeeds by missing a lot of bats and his struck out almost 10 batters per nine innings in his freshman season. With improved command of his low-to-mis-90s fastball and slider, the young hurler could eventually develop four average or better offerings (He also has a curveball and changeup).

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Willy Adames, SS: The young shortstop made his highly-anticipated debut in 2018 and performed well — especially given he was just 22. With that said, there is room for improvement after he struck out at a 29% clip. Swing-and-miss has always been a part of his game but he has raw power to tap into and offsets the Ks, to a degree, with a healthy dose of walks, which inflates his on-base numbers. There is 20-homer potential here but he’ll need to get more consistent loft after hitting 52% of his balls on the ground during his debut. Defensively, Adames is expected to move off shortstop and his debut did nothing to quiet the concerns about his fielding.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 633 – Positional Preview: Shortstop

1/26/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable transactions

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Signing Implications: Pollock, Strickland, & Brach

Yesterday saw some fantasy applicable free agent signing occur which deserve a discussion.

A.J. Pollock signs with the Dodgers

I can’t quit Pollock, almost to a fault. I keep latching onto his 2015 season even though he hasn’t played over 113 games since then because of injuries. Now, he is going to a team notorious for limiting playing time thereby making his value is tough to unwrap.

He was productive during his stretch of limited playing time. Prorating his three-year stats down to 600 PA, he would have 88 Runs, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 23 SB and a .261 average. It’s tough to find a player with similar 2019 projection but here are a few. Ronald Acuna is at 28 HR, 24 SB, and .276 AVG. Braun at 25 HR, 13 SB, .265 AVG. Tim Anderson with 17 HR, 21 SB, .252 AVG. If playing a full season, he’s a top-50 hitter.

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A Minor Review of 2018: Philadelphia Phillies

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Philadelphia Phillies

If you were perusing this series back in 2009, you would have read this:

The Graduate: J.A. Happ, LHP: Happ did not garner a lot of attention while rising through the minors, but the left-hander had a solid rookie season for the Phillies. He did a nice job of keeping runners off base with just 149 hits allowed and a walk rate of 3.04 BB/9 in 166.0 innings. Happ’s strikeout rate dipped from his minor-league average, but it was still reasonable at 6.45 K/9. If he can utilize his curveball more often, it might help him with his strikeout rate, because it will change the hitters’ eye levels. One of the biggest ugly marks on his stats line is the 38.4% ground-ball rate.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Seranthony Dominguez, RHP: A mostly unheralded minor league hurler, Dominguez burst onto the scene and overpowered big league hitters with an excellent fastball-slider mix. He also induced a strong number of ground-ball outs and even tossed in an occasional effective changeup. Dominguez’s control wavered at times but most of that occurred in the second half when he might have been getting tired (He walked 16 batters in 24.1 second-half innings, but just 22 overall for the year). The Phillies will look to be contenders in 2019 and this young, hard-throwing hurler has earned the right to open the year as the team’s closer — but veteran reliever David Robertson will be waiting in the wings.

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Are We Repeating a 2018 Mistake?

How different are these two pitchers?

  • Pitcher A: 3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 24% K, 7% BB, 3.18 FIP
  • Pitcher B: 3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 28% K, 7% BB, 3.41 FIP

I’d probably lean toward B as I’m a strikeout slut, but the idea that they’re markedly different wouldn’t really hold up. Even if you look at their pitches, I’m not sure there’s a clear difference:

  • Pitcher A: -4.2 FB, 10.0 SL, 1.4 CB, -1.3 CH
  • Pitcher B: -4.8 FB, 11.2 SL, 4.8 CB, -3.2 CH

Pitcher B has a stronger second-best pitch with that curve, but Pitcher A’s fastball and changeup were both better while the pair shared similarly strong sliders. After his campaign, Pitcher A was taken as a top 40 SP in most drafts. Currently, Pitcher B is going among the top 25 SPs, which means yes, it’s two different seasons for these stat lines. Both also happen to pitch in the most hitter-friendly environment the game has ever seen.

By now you’ve likely guessed that both are Colorado Rockies.

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Hitters Who Could Get Platooned

The 2018 season opened my eyes to the risk of young players losing playing time because of massive platoon splits. Usually, it’s the established major league veterans like Matt Adams who get platooned. Manual Margot was such a player who usually led off against lefties but was dropped in the batting order or even to the bench against righties. Those lost plate appearances can add up over the course of a season whittling away a hitter’s value. Today, I’m going focus the most talented hitters who are most like to be platooned.

For Tanner’s and my book, The Process, Steamer projections were kind enough to include every hitter’s projected OPS versus right and left-handed pitchers. From the book’s research, we found teams have historically started platooning hitters when one side of the platoon’s OPS drops below .650 and definitely at .600. Here are some the hitters who may end up in a platoon situation if their team decides to go that route. Besides the risk of sitting out games, some teams move these players up and down the lineup based platoon differences. I’m likely going to give some of these hitters a playing time adjustment.

Note: The projected platoon OPS are league and ballpark neutral and may seem off compared to the current projected OPS.

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Birchwood Brothers 5.1: Bour(n) Again, Part 1

We are the Birchwood Brothers—authentic siblings, senior citizens, dispensers of healing advice and spiritual counsel to the fantasy-impaired—back for our fifth year before the mast. Like those guys who spend their vacations in Trappist monasteries, each season around this time we bid our loved ones, and adult responsibility in general, a gleeful farewell, and immerse ourselves in fantasy baseball, seeking to apprehend and carry out the divine will, as it is expressed through the designation of players who, unforeseen by all but a few of the elect, will help a fantasy team succeed.

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More on First Basemen…

Earlier this week, I did a breakdown of 1B using the NFBC ADP data. I grouped them according to the draft slots and gave some thoughts on who I liked and disliked at their current costs. Since I was using the NFBC draft data, it was only listing those who are currently qualified by the standard 20-game threshold (the industry standard and also what most sites use, while Yahoo! is most lenient at just 5 games).

I was so zeroed in on the group of NFBC-eligible first basemen that I didn’t even think about a very worthwhile group of players: those certain or very likely to gain 1B eligibility early enough in the season that you can draft them with the intention of being your primary option at the position and those who fell below 20 games, but still had enough to qualify at sites using a 5- or 10-game qualifier.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 632 – Fireside Chat: Potential K Rate Risers

1/23/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

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