Archive for Featured

Last week, we covered starting pitchers who lost stuff and command. This week we will examine three starting pitchers who have gained stuff and command. We’ll look at what contributed to the gains to determine if we should buy, sell or hold.

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For most of us, April results are not that much more meaningful than the results we get from our teams during the rest of the season. For those of you who play in Cutline leagues, all the power to ‘ya. 

But in practice, April results can have a bit of an outsized impact on fantasy teams. For one, early season-ending injuries are of course more impactful than similar injuries that happen later, since you have more output to backfill. 

And April hot starts can sometimes be parlayed into months of strong performance. That Week 1 streamer who turns into one of the stalwarts of your otherwise lackluster rotation or the top prospect who earned a last minute spot in the starting lineup out of Spring Training. 

We all know these feel good stories. We all know the other side of that coin, too. The early draft pick who limps through April with an inflated ERA. Or who Tatis’s their way through the first nine weeks of the season without a home run. 

In this article, I’ll look at the starting pitchers who have seen the biggest improvements between April and May, keeping things simple by sorting by ERA and K-BB% to trim the fat before getting into meatier analysis on some of the more intriguing arms.

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Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

• Vaughn Grissom has been starting at first base.

Vaughn Grissom, who hit a grand slam and had six RBIs in Tuesday’s 10-6 win, started at first base again on Wednesday. He’s expected to get the bulk of the playing time there in Schanuel’s absence, although Oswald Peraza and Donovan Walton could see time there as well.

“For the most part now, he’s going to fill in and get the majority of the time over there at first base,” manager Kurt Suzuki said of Grissom. “But I could see Peraza or Donnie playing some first base, so we have options.”

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“You don’t know how to play first base value assets, Scott?”

“That’s right.”

“It’s not that hard, Scott. Tell him, Wash.”

“It’s incredibly hard.”

“Hey, anything worth doing is. And we’re going to teach you.”

Introduction:

By now, 25 years hence, Moneyball concepts are likely old hat to your average RotoGraphs reader. With the suite of technical tools available to the modern fan, it can be easy to forget just how powerful those insights can still be. Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 4/27 | next: wk of 6/1)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Big board of studs to choose from today! I’ll drop some comments in the morning.

• Meyer, like Davis Martin yesterday v. MIN, ate his first Dud (5+ ER) of the year after facing a team for the second time in a row (NYM), but it was a bad first inning (4 R) but he still settled down to go 6 and fan 6.
• Cole is all of 2 starts into his return so there may still be hiccups, but I just can’t see sitting him anywhere.
• This is the 10-start mark for Webb and barring an absolute gem, he’ll be toting some pretty mediocre ratios with his worst K-BB since the fake season (2020). He’s also staring down the barrel of WSH/CHC 2-step next week after this trip to MIL. I’m not looking to cut him, even in 10s, but is there a world where we skip the 2-step if this one goes south today?
• To that end, I should’ve slotted Peralta/Taj/Arrighetti, and maybe even Melton over Webb right now.
• Wish the Nats were giving Alvarez an opener again, but he’s slated for the traditional start and I’m still open to streaming him. Even with just 1 K in a meh 3 IP outing last time, he still has a 27% K rate on the year. He pitches backwards with his curve (33%) and slider (28%) leading the way over his fastball (24%) as he hopes to establish himself in the rotation. I wonder if a good start here could get the Nats to slot him for the 2-step next week (projections currently have Mikolas getting it).
• Melton is a fave of mine who I was really excited about in the offseason before the injury. I’m not thrown by his hideous 0% K-BB through 2 starts after just 1 K in a 7-IP gem at CHW (1 ER, 1 BB, 6 H), but obviously he has to drastically improve there to be fantasy viable. I believe he will and would gladly roster him anywhere right now. Let’s check in after another handful of starts to see where the strikeouts sit and decide if he’s an all-formats play for the long haul.

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Hot Right Now (HRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on popular players currently being auctioned or players who you should think about auctioning in your Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats. In this feature, we will break down players into two sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP over the last 14 days who are also rostered in 80% of leagues or less.

The RotoGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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It’s been nearly a month since I took my last look at batter xwOBA underperformers and overperformers, and a lot could change during that time. So let’s revisit the hitters who have underperformed and overperformed the most, determine whether it’s been a consistent trend, and decide if the hitter is due to perform closer to his xwOBA the rest of the way.

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Ewing had a day!

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 4/27 | next: wk of 6/1)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll have updated SP rankings out this week! Targeting Thursday for that, stay tuned.

• 1 bad IP v. HOU led to Early’s only Dud of the year but maybe it unlocked something for him because he’s been electric since: 1.79 ERA/0.96 WHIP/20% K-BB. The 5% BB stands out because control was an issue through his F7 starts (11% BB), though his ERA has never eclipsed 3.80 so even as he worked through that, he was still delivering value.
• In a season of impressive pitching breakouts, Martin stands out. After shelving his slider and curve to show-me status last year (4-5% usage for both), he’s dialed ’em up nearly 3x to 15% and 12%, respectively, and as a result his K% has surged 10 pts to 27%!! Paired with 13% SwStr, there is some realness to this and I’m running him everywhere confidently right now.
• Elder caught his first Dud of the year and there could be more on the way as it’s still hard to fully buy into his success with just a 13% K-BB, but if you can take the ratio risk there’s plenty of Win upside.
• Vásquez has been a bit wobbly in his L2 (7 ER in 10 IP w/4 HRs and 2:4 K:BB) but this is what I mean when I say we’re not jumping off at the first sign of trouble w/someone. Last year, that would’ve been enough to run from Vásquez given how flimsy his skills were (5% K-BB). His 12% this year isn’t amazing, but much more palatable than a single-digit rate. Let’s check-in after the 2-start this week (NYM on the wknd).
• I debated the 3-x on Soroka given how good he’s been this year but LAD is always tough to go against with any non-ace. Health, not skills, remains the biggest hurdle for Soroka as he hasn’t reached even 90 IP since his 2019 breakout season. I would definitely run him in weekly 10-teamers to get the 2-step even with it being 2 pretty difficult matchups (WSN this wknd).
• Huge 2-step this week for Prielipp. After running out to a 2.88 ERA/0.96 WHIP in his first 5 MLB starts, he’s gotten his socks knocked off in his L2 at BOS and at CHW, allowing 11 ER in 8.3 IP (6 BB definitely a big part of the issue). I’m willing to give him a shot against the Murakami-less White Sox in order to get the KCR start in weekly setups. In daily setups, I can see skipping this in shallow-medium formats.
• Matz has 6 good and 3 bad starts on the year but the latter have smothered the former resulting in a 4.67 ERA/1.24 WHIP through 44.3 IP. Most of my confidence to start him comes from how impossibly bad my favorite team has been lately (casual 4-22 record over their L26, very fun to watch everyday!).
• It was great to see the 11-K game from Roy Reuben Chandler but we knew that wasn’t the end of his control issues (he even walked 3 during the big strikeout game). HOU is down to 12th in wOBA on the year after a really fast start and now they essentially boil down to Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Jeremy Pena,  and friends… wherein the friends are essentially free outs. Just don’t let those three get you and they’re very beatable.
• McDonald is yet another interesting arm with a difficult 2-step on tap (at CHC this wknd) but one I’m certainly open to running. A 7 ER Dud v. CHW has inflated the ERA to 4.34 but the 17% K-BB and 2.92 SIERA draw my attention. In fact, as I dive in deeper, I would favor T-Mc over Matz and Chandler for both today and the whole week.
• I’m nervous about all five 1-x guys and wouldn’t bat an eye at sitting any of them. Baz and Abbott at least have decent matchups while Cantillo, Jump, and Cameron are all on the road facing Top 10 offenses. Even still, I’d likely run all three in weekly formats for their 2-steps… at least in 15-teamers.
• Comments sold me on giving Nola, May and even Grayson 1-x. If I could figure out how to half an x, I would’ve given Grayson that, but I’m just nervous from being burnt in the past by him (mostly due to health, in fairness). Edit to add: I guess a slash one way or the other is technically half an “x” so that’s what he gets!

I’ll have more comments in the morning. Got a late start and need to get some rest!

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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