It’s time for the final installment of “Why We Missed”. The breakout pitchers and hitters are done along with the disappointing pitchers so it’s time to dive into hitting busts.

To determine who disappointed, I collected the information on any hitters who saw more than a $10 decline in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. I only analyzed the hitters who had a positive draft day value.
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10/29/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

2020 OUTFIELDER DISCUSSION

• Top 25
  • The Top 4 (5:00)
  • Rest of the Top 10 (7:45)
  • Charlie Blackmon/Starling Marte (8:20)
  • Eloy Jiménez (9:25)
  • Victor Robles (10:27)
  • Ketel Marte (11:30)
  • Whit Merrifield (14:50)
  • Austin Meadows (15:55)
  • Notable Omissions (17:48)
    • Marcell Ozuna (18:01)
    • Andrew Benintendi (18:48, 22:18)

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After looking at the pitchers and hitters who exceeded expectations, it was time to examine the players who didn’t live up to their ADP. I had a good idea this list would be loaded with pitchers who missed a ton of time and I was correct. Of the 48 pitchers featured, 39 spent time on the IL at some point last season.

To determine who disappointed, I collected the information on any pitcher who saw more than a $10 decline in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. I just analyzed the pitchers who had a positive draft day value.

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In case you missed it, Peripheral Prospects was the fanboy spawn of Carson Cistulli’s erstwhile Fringe Five column. I worked on PP in conjunction with Alex Chamberlain (his review), although I must admit we never actually discussed our picks. Basically, we both like finding value on the fringes of the fantasy scene. To that end, we brought our own processes for discovering these often free gems.

Anyway, let’s move on to reviewing my favorite/best picks. Read Alex’s review (above) if you’re desirous of further introduction.

Week 1: Spencer Turnbull

Turnbull broke camp with the pitiful Tigers. In a different run environment, I’m convinced he would have been a useful fantasy asset. He actually held opponents to 0.85 HR/9 – which ranks seventh-best among pitchers with 100 or more innings. He also recorded a hair under a strikeout per inning with a non-lethal 4.61 ERA. Don’t mind the 1.44 WHIP or 3-17 record. I’ll have my eye on him next season.

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I covered my first 10 rounds and the strategy that went along with it in my article yesterday.  

You can also find the full draft board there. This is a 50-round draft and hold league that will finish the draft in January. Here are my picks from round 11-21:

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After years of jealousy sitting at home, I finally was able to attend First Pitch Arizona earlier this month. Quick Plug: if you have the opportunity to do go, it is a fantastic experience that is well worth the money. First Pitch has amazing panels and seminars that will really sharpen your game, but more importantly than that, the discussions you have with some of the smartest people in the industry are invaluable.

Now, every year there are drafts that occur at FPAZ. I thought it would be a fun experiment for me to try a new strategy I have been game planning for the 2020 season. The draft was a NFBC style 15-team 50 round draft and hold. We drafted the first 21 rounds in Arizona and then will draft the rest in January. Read the rest of this entry »

10/23/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Game 1 review
• David Ross to manage CHC

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A couple of weeks back, I examined why the industry might have missed on some breakout hitters. It was tough to find anything actionable with the hitting breakouts. It’s now time to see any useful information that can be extracted from the pitching side.

I collected the information on any pitcher who finished the season with positive production in a 15-team league and saw more than a $10 jump in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. In all, 46 pitchers made the cut

There were several more categories than hitters butseveral are actionable. One item I ran into was an issue with where to draw a line with the change. Bradley Newman pointed out the mechanical changes Giolito went through to see his production drastically improve.

https://twitter.com/PhillyStars27/status/1187056648877154305

The changes were the root cause but if his plate discipline stayed the same, the adjustments wouldn’t have mattered. Also, it’s tough for the average fan to find out about these adjustments in real-time. The linked article was taken from late-May after Giolito was already universally owned. It was useless for any fantasy owner.
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Every year, as the season comes to a close, I put together a series of mock draft with industry analysts to start getting first thoughts on where people might end up in drafts for the next season. This year I ran six mocks during the month of September with interesting results. All drafts were 15-team leagues with one catcher standard formats. Read the rest of this entry »

The brilliant Astros rookie DH Yordan Alvarez is a near-lock to win the AL Rookie of the Year next month, but he has labored through the playoffs with just a .171/.227/.244 and a lone RBI in 44 PA. After posting a .313/.412/.655 line with 27 HR and 78 RBI in 369 regular season plate appearances, he was expected to a key part of the deep Houston lineup.

Instead, he has started to move down in the lineup (5th in the first 7 games; 6th or 7th in 4 since) and will likely be an easy sit for the Astros for the games in Washington. He may have sat anyway, but if he was raking, it would’ve at least been a tough decision. So what have the Rays and Yankees done to slow the electric rookie?

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