08/30/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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@justinmasonfwfb – Host/Producer
@JasonCollette– Co-Host
NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Joe Jiménez out as DET closer  2:00
  • Gregory Soto
• Trevor Rosenthal traded to SD for Edward Oliveras 4:30
  • Who closes in KC?
• Jarrod Dyson traded to White Sox 7:30
• Franklin Barreto to LAA for Tommy LaStella 10:00
• Mitch Moreland to SD 13:44
  • Bobby Dalbec up for BOS
• Tommy Milone to ATL 18:00
• Jordan Romano to IL 22:05
  • Who closes in Tor?
• Jose Martinez to CHC 24:00

FAAB

• Manuel Margot 27:15
• Ian Anderson 30:50
• Josh Fleming 34:20
• Gavin Lux 42:30
• Deivi Garcia 46:15
• Tony Gonsolin 51:10
• Michael Pineda 52:45
• Cedric Mullins 54:45
• Brandon Belt 57:40
• Richard Rodriguez 100:15
  —

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 67 minutes of joyous analysis.

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I had to stop adding players and start setting my own bids, so this list will likely be incomplete as more trades happen. I think Ian Anderson is the only wallet buster of the week but I’m sure other players will go for decent prices. One item to keep in mind this week is every manager’s FAAB, especially those leading a league. In one of my leagues, the four managers ahead in the standings have $26 … total. Three at $1 and the other at $23. Some game theory can be used at this point … or at least until that absentee manager with a 100% of his FAAB left grabs everyone.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
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The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
6. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
6. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Read the rest of this entry »

The Seattle Mariners traded Taijuan Walker to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL

With the Mariners, Walker (49% owned in CBS leagues) was riding a .225 BABIP (.282 for his career) to a lower than expected ERA (4.00) and WHIP (1.07). So even before the trade, some regression was expected with his rate stats. Now, he’s going to go pitch in a tougher home park and division. The results could be straight up ugly.

On Toronto, his projected rest-of-season ERA is at 4.85 and WHIP at 1.40. Not good. He was able to suppress his ERA because of his flyball nature (37% GB%) while pitching in Seattle. That advantage is gone but there is hope. His sinker has a better swinging-strike rate than his four-seamer (8% vs 5%) and a better groundball rate (46% vs 30%). He’s going to have to improve in several small ways to maintain anything close to his production so far this season.
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One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Previous Volumes

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

• C Chance Sisco – 7% | Gary Sanchez – 93% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

Sisco is hitting so well that the O’s are getting him and Pedro Severino into the lineup regularly with one DH’ing. Sisco has a 163 wRC+ and 4 HR in 64 PA so far. He is striking out 38% of the time, though it’s slightly counterbalanced by his 19% BB rate.

Sanchez has been a disaster and I just don’t think he’s a necessary hold at this point. The 5 HR can’t overcome the damage of a horrific .139/.253/.361 line in 83 PA. He did have three straight homers back in mid-August and looked like he might be coming out of it, but he’s hitting .188 since in 20 PA.

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I am so glad I got sober before the invention of camera phones:

Arguably the greatest move by a Mets GM ever: https://t.co/qDIbjTtH7L

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) August 27, 2020

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The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
6. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Read the rest of this entry »

The trade deadline is Monday so let’s try to identify some of the guys who could be on the move. It will be an interesting deadline as we don’t know if teams will be willing to pony up for high impact players for a month of work. Meanwhile, the new playoff format has a lot of teams in spitting distance of a spot so they may be less inclined to deal even their impending free agents as the returns will likely be scant so why not just go for it? I wanted to get this out earlier in the week, but time prevented that so my sweet call on Taijuan Walker getting dealt and including TOR as one of the potential spots goes by the wayside.

Jeff and I will be writing up the deals over the weekend and on Monday starting with a piece from him tomorrow covering the Walker and Brandon Workman deals. 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

They are 2 games under .500, but their playoff odds have them at just 11% due in large part to the overall difficulty of the American League so they should consider moving some players.

Tommy Milone – 3.99 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 21% K-BB in 29.3 IP – The 33-year old lefty will definitely draw some interest as he’s shown himself to be a useful 4th-5th starter type who can play up a bit in short samples as we’ve seen so far this year. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU, (back to) OAK, TOR

Alex Cobb – 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9% K-BB in 31.3 IP – He’s still owed $15 million for 2021 and 31.3 innings of solid work might not be enough for a team to take a chance on that, but perhaps the O’s can pay some of that down to get a better return. He’s probably somehow amp his K rate to 29% and post 170 IP of a sub-3.00 ERA if he went to Houston. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU

Pat Valaika – 89 wRC+, 5 HR in 78 PA – The 27-year old utilityman has a bit of pop and could be a fill-in or bench piece for some clubs. Potentially interested teams: NYY, MIN, CHC, MIA

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08/27/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @JasonRRMartinez – Guest

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Taijuan Walker to TOR
  • How active do you expect the deadline to be?
• Joe Jiménez out as DET closer
• Is Craig Kimbrel getting the job back in CHC?
• 5 guys for the last 5 TB saves – anyone rosterable?
• Who would you trust most as COL closer: Bard-Diaz-Estevez?

Read the rest of this entry »

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