Last time out, we were in mid-August with a remarkably nice 69-46. We finished 27-20, ending atop the division, but as the third-best division winner. Let’s take a look back at the 2022 playoffs and how we are looking as we enter 2023 (which actually started at 9 AM Central this morning, so we’ll be mid-April by the end of this).

PLAYOFFS

The playoffs were a griiiind!

In the division series, we played the 97-65 New Tecumseth Hammers, who also won their division by 5 games. The two teams traded punches, but we came away with a 3-2 series victory (I didn’t get to screenshot all the individual game results, so I apologize for the lack of depth in describing the series. I’ll know better for the future). Onto the LCS, we were set to face the Morrisville Mallards who won the wildcard game after posting a 92-70 record and then also found themselves in a 5-game division series where they edged out the 99-63 West Saint Paul Predators.

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While I had little luck finding the next Lucas Giolito, he still intrigued me. He was possibly the worst major league starter in 2018 (6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 173 IP). Last season, he remade himself by throwing harder (avg FBv from 92.4 mph to 94.3 mph), throwing more strikes (4.7 BB/9 to 2.90 BB/9), and reworking his pitch mix (dropped the sinker and curve).

The problem is that standard projection systems still incorporate the previous three or more results which hurt his projection. Our auction calculator (Steamer) ranks him as the 45th pitcher while he’s going as the 14th pitcher in the NFBC. Fantasy owners knew to reset his projection but to what? I decided to create a projection system called the GM (Giolito – Marte) based only on the previous season results. Nothing more.
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Earlier this week I introduced the Texas Red Bulls. I’m building and managing the team via OOTP’s Perfect Team mode. After an ugly 10-16 start in April, we’re 59-30!! I swear I didn’t just wait until I had 69 wins to write this update! It’s remarkably nice that it turned out that way, but it wasn’t intentional.

AN OVERVIEW

The team is 69-46 as of August 10th, in first place with a 3.5 game lead. We have a +114 run differential which is actually the 2nd-best in the league despite having the 3rd-best record. There’s a team at 76-38 with a +191 and another at 74-41 with a +109 mark (they are 6 games over their Pythag. record). The latest Power Rankings came out two game days earlier and we are third:

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04/09/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

THINGS WE HATE ABOUT SPORTS DRAFT

• Draft Board

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The last of the Finding Giolito series comes to pause. I couldn’t find any footage on Logan Webb and the Manaea video was crap. That said, the Garrett Richards looked great.

Garrett Richards (Padres, RHP)

Games

• 3/3/20
• 3/9/20

Notes

• Pitches straight ahead attacking the plate.
• The slider has a curveball shape but in the low 90’s.
• He never controlled the curve in either game. He was just giving away those pitches.
• In the third inning of the 3/9 game, he lost control of everything. He might have tried throwing his change since he bounced a couple pithces way in front of the plate.
• While the broadcast talked of the changeup, I didn’t notice him throwing one else it was one of the pitches he bounced.

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04/07/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NEWS

• Discussing the potential start of a season

SPORTS MOVIE DRAFT

• Draft Board

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No.

Welcome to Out of the Park (OOTP) Perfect Team. You may be familiar with OOTP, perhaps even recently via Ben Clemens’ journey with his Milwaukee Brewers. I checked with Ben to make sure he wouldn’t feel like his toes were being stepped on if I started an OOTP series and he was beyond chill with it because he’s just that kind of guy.

Perfect Team is a card collecting online mode. You build and mold your team through throngs of virtual cards with ratings relating to the year in question whether it’s the 2020 iteration of everyone on a current roster or an early-1900s flashback and everything in between. When you start a team, you get six free packs and 1000 Perfect Points (the in-game currency you can use to buy more packs or players off the Auction House). About 20-30 minutes after you create your team, you’re placed into Entry Pool which is essentially a Spring Training of sorts where games are simulated against other human-run teams every 30 minutes 24/7 until the next Monday.

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Last week I started a series on finding the potential Spring Training breakouts based on increased velocity and a possible new pitch. I planned on going in-depth on a couple of guys but found no game footage for Nick Pivetta, Danny Duffy, and John Means. Instead, I pivoted to Alec Mills.

Alec Mills

Improvements

• Fastball velo up 0.8 mph.
• New two-seam grip.

Games watched

• 2/26/20: 2 IP, Best game to watch. Good camera angle and pitch velos.
• 3/7/20: 3.2 IP, Horrible camera angle.
• 3/11/20: 1 IP

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