With only a two month season, it makes sense to look into pitchers who were gaining momentum in the final month. Of course, taking a small sample isn’t always ideal but perhaps a pitcher started to gain velocity, made a pitch mix change, or were just plain unlucky in the first month. These tangible changes could mean something and could hint at who will carry their success over into 2021.

Here are the top 30 ERA leaders in the last month:

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The 2021 draft season may be the most unpredictable one … ever. While several rule changes (e.g. NL DH) can cause some evaluation inconsistencies, the biggest monkey wrench to deal with will be the lack of previous season stats. Projection systems will weight the 60-game 2020 season (37% of a normal season) to historical averages but what are those who don’t use traditional projections systems? Or read or listen to people who don’t care for them in order to create a compelling narrative? It’s time to anchor some historical context around those narratives.

All analyses “should” start with at least some set of weights. For those who start with one, they’ll have an advantage. For those who guess the correct one, they’ll have a huge edge. The issue with setting weights is how to create a short season one that fills all the narratives.

First, most of the players were rushed to get game-ready and were not 100% ready when the season started. So the beginning of the season stats could be used to replicate this ramping up period, but the weather was still warm at the season’s end increasing offensive output. Maybe the entire first month should be ignored with everything in flux. Possibly the last two because that were the 2020 regular season months. played. So, I decided to look into all the possible options including a horrible first attempt.
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10/02/20

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• AL Playoffs
• Clayton Kershaw dominates

MY SP RANKS

Too high

• Mike Clevinger 25
• Mike Soroka 40
• Cal Quantrill 120

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• One item missing from this article are hitters who played through an injury. While it needs to be updated, all the information can be located here.

• For Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, it took about two months for mechanical adjustments to take hold.

“In a shorter season, obviously everything gets magnified,” Rangel pointed out. “It’s tougher. In a regular season, we’d have about three or four months more to go, which gives you a little bit more time to kind of settle things down. It’s just hard this year, the way things are.”

Case in point: Lance Lynn.

In 2019, Lynn was 2-2 with a 6.51 ERA after five starts. By the time his recovery started to look legit, he was about to make his 11th start (Gibson, meanwhile, has 11 starts this season). If the season ended after two months and 12 starts, as it will for Gibson in 2020, Lynn’s line would have been good but not great: 7-4, 4.50 ERA, 77 strikeouts and 22 walks in 74 innings. Instead, Lynn took June through September and finished fifth in Cy Young voting.

The findings are just a data point that seems to be in line with other findings. Players need around a month or two to implement a change or get ready for the season. Just keep the idea in mind when a hitter is coming off the IL or missed part of Spring Training.
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The playoffs are a great time for all of us to collectively watch the best the game has to offer and when they have major performances, it can stick with us. Those memorable moments are fun, but they can result in a Playoff Tax for us as the fantasy draft table the following year. This isn’t inherently bad as there are plenty of times when these showcases make us look deeper into a player and realize he’s someone we want on our team.

I remember seeing the exact moment that Walker Buehler skyrocketed up draft boards in October 2018:

The playoff fantasy tax will have Walker Buehler regularly going among the top 10 SPs in fantasy drafts next year.

— Paul Sporer (@sporer) October 27, 2018

He ended up going 12th among starters in Main Event drafts, so I was pretty close.

American League version

Here’s one player from each National League team who could make a big move with a strong October performance (ranging from studs to low/mid-tier options for deeper leagues):

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I know information from the 2020 season will be suspect for future use and that includes closer usage patterns. Some parts are interesting. Others useless. Before going through each closer situation, I figured it would be a blood bath. After a month of constant flux, the results are better than I expected (not one established closer lost his job in September). The useable information seems to be in line with the last few seasons.

First off, the emphasis of this study is to determine how many draft-day closers make it through the season. Here is this season’s list with all previous studies found here.

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The playoffs are a great time for all of us to collectively watch the best the game has to offer and when they have major performances, it can stick with us. Those memorable moments are fun, but they can result in a Playoff Tax for us as the fantasy draft table the following year. This isn’t inherently bad as there are plenty of times when these showcases make us look deeper into a player and realize he’s someone we want on our team.

I remember seeing the exact moment that Walker Buehler skyrocketed up draft boards in October 2018:

The playoff fantasy tax will have Walker Buehler regularly going among the top 10 SPs in fantasy drafts next year.

— Paul Sporer (@sporer) October 27, 2018

He ended up going 12th among starters in Main Event drafts, so I was pretty close.

Here’s one player from each American League team who could make a big move with a strong October performance (ranging from studs to low/mid-tier options for deeper leagues):

Note: I’ll have a National League companion piece on Thursday

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Well, we got a season! It was only two months so it’s really hard to know exactly how much stock to put it into any of it, but here’s my first look. Obviously this is subject to change and will do so quite a bit as the offseason moves forward, but I feel pretty good about this initial look. I decided not to tier it yet as I’m just not feeling confident in the cutoffs, but rest assured that there are several globs once we get past the first 25 or so. I also just labeled pitchers with their current team, we’ll get into free agent stuff later in the offseason.

Let me know what you think in the comments! I’ll have more detailed ranks out shortly after the playoffs.

Note: Pearson, Richards, and Fiers added after initial post. Meanwhile, I had missed Hudson’s TJ. 

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10/12/20: Note: First, thanks to everyone for the help. Second, the comments are closed so if any player needs to be added, reach me at @jeffwzimmerman on Twitter. -Jeff

With the season just over, I’d like some help collecting the hitters who played through an injury in 2020. First, I’m not looking for those who may have struggled because of COVID-19 complications (e.g. Austin Meadows, Scott Kingery, Yoan Moncada). That’s another study for a later date.

The information can help fantasy managers help point to why a hitter may have struggled when their 2021 prep begins. Also, my research has shown that these hitters see a production decline. It’s one offseason data point to get out of the way.

Please let me know if I’m missing any in the comments. All I ask is that as much information as possible be provided like the location (e.g. hip), when (e.g. summer camp), or an article link. Just a name doesn’t help. From my own notes and begging on Twitter, here are the hitters I have so far (list from 2017, 2018, 2019). Thanks.
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The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

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