For this fun exercise we are going to look into some pitchers who gained or lost velocity on their fastball. Usually a gain or loss in velocity could lead to a difference in performance. This season is a little tough because the question of the year is, were pitchers able to throw faster because they knew it was a short season? Or vice versa, did some of these pitchers lose their velocity because they didn’t have time to properly build up their arms? Or are they typically slow starters? Unfortunately these are questions that won’t be answered until the 2021 season begins. With that in mind let’s take a gander and these pitchers and what it could mean moving forward.

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After focusing the 2021 prep on hitters for the last couple of weeks, it’s time for pitchers to take center stage. There is no way to hide that the following is mostly a data dump with a small bit of analysis. Welcome to mid-October 2021 draft prep.

Single Season Projections

These projections are about as simple as it gets. It takes a pitcher’s 2020 results and projections the pitcher going forward based just on those stats. With some pitchers completely changing their pitch arsenal, I find these projections are a better evaluation tool than multi-year averages. For a reference, here is the full write up on how they are created.
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10/13/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @PitcherList – Nick Pollack (producer)

2021 SP DISCUSSION

• Luis Castillo – 2:00
• Zac Gallen – 8:30
• Blake Snell – 14:30
• Tyler Glasnow – 22:00
• Aaron Nola – 23:20
• Lucas Giolito – 27:29
• Dinelson Lamet – 32:00
• Walker Buehler/Clayton Kershaw – 34:34
• Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 – 38:35
• Dylan Bundy – 45:17
• José Berríos – 52:00

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I’m just trying to grind through any nuggets in the end-of-season wrapups. I’ve found that teams out of the playoff picture provided better nuggets since they beat writers filling their article quotas writing about possible postseason lineups and rotations. I’ve got a few more late articles to comb through. I expect little to no usable news until the winter meetings.

American League

Angels

• Dylan Bundy should be ready for a full workload in 2021.

Angels pitching coach Mickey Callaway said the way he and his staff approached the summer’s pandemic-induced layoff should help curb this. He estimated that Dylan Bundy has thrown “about 180 innings” this year from all the throwing on his ranch in Oklahoma, the summer training and his 65 2/3 innings in the big leagues this season. That would be about the same amount as what he threw in 2019 (161 2/3 with Baltimore plus spring training). It’s still something to monitor next year, though.

I expect all veteran pitchers to have the same limit since teams were most likely looking ahead to 2021, but it would be nice to have it stated about as many pitchers as possible.

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I just released my two simple projections and Gary Sánchez could not be any more polarizing. Using just last season’s stats, he projects to post a replacement-level .656 OPS. And when I use multiple years of StatCast data, he projects for a .889 OPS, the 4th best overall value. The difference comes down to BABIP regression.

To say Sánchez had a disappointing 2020 is a huge understatement. For the hitters with 170 or more plate appearances, his .618 OPS ranked 13th worse. His .147 AVG was the worst. It was fueled by a combination .159 BABIP (2nd worst only to Edwin Encarnacion) and 36% K% (6th worst). The single-season projection’s regression raises his BABIP up to .223 and his AVG to .193. They are better but still far from rosterable.
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A couple weeks back I highlight a group of Out of Nowhere Hitters and gave some thoughts on how I view them for 2021. It’s time to take a look at some pitchers!

Note: this is not a complete list, there are definitely more than seven candidates so feel free to include yours in the comments and I’ll give my thoughts on them in a response.

Framber Valdez | Houston Astros

Valdez ranked just 22nd among Astros prospects coming into 2019 tabbed with a bullpen future due in large part to a two-pitch repertoire. A lack of viable starting options gave him an opportunity in 2020 and he took full advantage. After a mediocre debut against the Dodgers, he reeled off 41 innings of a 2.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 46 strikeouts and a 3-1 record. Back-to-back duds against the LA teams (8 ER in 7 IP at LAA, 5 ER in 5 IP at LAD) pushed his ERA to 4.08 but then he allowed just 2 ER in his final 13.3 innings to give him a season mark of 3.57 in 70.7 IP.

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Last season, I introduced two independent projections to help fantasy managers evaluate players. One is based on just the hitter’s previous season production and the other is based entirely on StatCast data. It’s time to have them available for 2021 draft prep.

As I previously stated, this is the reason behind the projections:

I created the projections with inspiration from “The Model Thinker” by Scott Page.* The author states, “do not put too much faith in one model”. To further explain this stance, he states:

“The lesson should be clear: if we can construct multiple diverse, accurate models, then we can make very accurate predictions and valuations and choose good actions.
…
Keep in mind, these second and third models need not be better than the first model. They could be worse. If they are a little less accurate, but categorically (in the literal sense) different, they should be added to the mix. “

Several projection systems already exist. Other projections take many projections and combine them. The issue is that projections are exclusively based on the previous season’s results (e.g. stolen bases, home runs) while incorporating some various levels of regression, aging factors, and yearly weightings. My goal is to create projections that don’t follow this standard cookie-cutter formula. I expect the projections to not be the most accurate because “all models are wrong.” I’m wanting a unique perspective on a hitter’s talent.
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10/07/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• LDS Playoffs

TOO EARLY MOCKS

First Round review

• Surprise at the Top?
• Mookie Betts 1st 6 times
• Other 1s: Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuña, Jacob deGrom
• No Mike Trout & he’s only 2 in 2 drafts
• 5 OF, 4 SS, 3 SP, 2 1B (one w/OF), 1 3B
• Biggest 1st rd split: Freddie Freeman peak 6, low 21

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Every year I run mock drafts at the end (or right before the end) of the regular season. The idea is to get some gut reactions of the industry on where players are likely to be taken in early drafts for the following year.

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With only a two month season, it makes sense to look into pitchers who were gaining momentum in the final month. Of course, taking a small sample isn’t always ideal but perhaps a pitcher started to gain velocity, made a pitch mix change, or were just plain unlucky in the first month. These tangible changes could mean something and could hint at who will carry their success over into 2021.

Here are the top 30 ERA leaders in the last month:

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