2 Early Mocks ADP

by
October 7, 2020

Every year I run mock drafts at the end (or right before the end) of the regular season. The idea is to get some gut reactions of the industry on where players are likely to be taken in early drafts for the following year.

While I originally was going to not do them this year, I felt like the abbreviated 2020 season was likely to wreck havoc on drafts coming into 2021, which made this a more important exercise than previous years. I set up nine mock drafts with 15-team NFBC roster requirements last week and with the help of Smada who is a master with spreadsheets and the technical side of stuff, I present to you the first run of the 2 Early Mocks ADP. 

2 Early Mock ADP
Players POS ADP M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9
1 Mookie Betts OF 2.2 1 1 3 1 7 4 1 1 1
2 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF 2.6 3 3 2 3 1 3 2 2 4
3 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS 3.2 4 4 1 4 2 5 4 3 2
4 Mike Trout OF 4.6 5 2 4 8 3 2 3 9 5
5 Juan Soto OF 5.4 6 5 6 5 6 6 8 4 3
6 Trea Turner SS 6.7 2 7 8 7 8 8 9 5 6
7 Jacob deGrom SP 7.7 7 8 12 11 10 1 5 8 7
8 Jose Ramirez 3B 7.8 10 12 5 2 9 10 6 7 9
9 Shane Bieber SP 9.2 8 10 A-11 10 A-5 9 7 11 A-10
10 Trevor Story SS 9.6 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 6 11
11 Gerrit Cole SP 10.3 11 6 15 15 4 7 13 10 12
12 Christian Yelich OF 10.9 12 11 7 13 13 12 10 12 8
13 Cody Bellinger 1B,OF 13.8 13 15 10 18 A-12 13 15 13 13
14 Freddie Freeman 1B 13.9 16 13 13 6 21 14 12 15 15
15 Francisco Lindor SS 17.2 15 16 24 16 15 21 16 16 16
16 Bryce Harper OF 18.3 20 18 20 21 14 18 14 20 20
17 Trevor Bauer SP 18.4 23 14 22 12 19 17 23 17 A-17
18 Manny Machado 3B,SS 18.9 14 17 17 14 18 15 29 27 19
19 Yu Darvish SP 19.9 17 19 14 27 22 16 26 18 A-14
20 Bo Bichette SS 22.7 18 20 21 26 35 25 18 23 18
21 Lucas Giolito SP 24.1 19 24 30 24 31 24 19 25 21
22 Nolan Arenado 3B 25.9 34 23 26 20 23 37 20 22 28
23 Max Scherzer SP 26.7 26 26 38 17 29 19 27 32 26
24 Aaron Nola SP 27.2 22 38 23 31 25 23 25 34 24
25 Luis Castillo SP 28.6 29 28 32 33 28 41 17 24 25
26 Walker Buehler SP 29.1 24 27 27 41 34 40 28 19 22
27 Ozzie Albies 2B 30.8 38 36 29 34 17 42 21 26 34
28 Xander Bogaerts SS 30.9 53 21 34 22 43 22 24 29 30
29 Clayton Kershaw SP 31.3 25 45 28 43 30 29 22 31 29
30 Anthony Rendon 3B 31.4 45 30 37 40 16 38 33 21 23
31 Alex Bregman 3B,SS 34.3 54 22 45 23 27 32 32 36 38
32 Luis Robert OF 34.9 39 41 16 45 32 27 38 45 31
33 Adalberto Mondesi SS 35.2 28 34 18 19 39 53 61 28 37
34 DJ LeMahieu 1B,2B,3B 35.4 47 40 39 25 24 55 39 14 36
35 Jose Abreu 1B 37.3 30 44 19 30 26 45 57 53 32
36 Marcell Ozuna OF 37.4 44 46 40 37 37 20 31 43 39
37 Jack Flaherty SP 37.6 27 31 35 58 38 47 40 35 27
38 Rafael Devers 3B 37.7 43 29 43 28 42 44 37 30 43
39 Kyle Tucker OF 38.6 51 42 25 35 41 39 41 33 40
40 Starling Marte OF 42.6 35 55 58 29 51 30 42 48 35
41 Whit Merrifield 2B,OF 43.4 40 47 48 38 49 31 45 51 42
42 Eloy Jimenez OF 43.7 37 37 31 46 47 56 43 52 44
43 Corey Seager SS 44.1 60 58 42 51 20 54 35 44 33
44 Brandon Woodruff SP 44.6 46 52 51 48 36 35 46 46 41
45 Luke Voit 1B 46.4 52 33 44 39 52 62 30 55 51
46 Tyler Glasnow SP 46.4 32 39 56 42 53 51 52 41 52
47 Lance Lynn SP 46.8 21 A-25 47 A-44 40 59 A-34 54 60
48 J.T. Realmuto C 47.6 42 54 33 32 56 60 53 49 49
49 Tim Anderson SS 48.7 36 66 41 36 54 43 58 50 54
50 Zac Gallen SP 48.9 48 51 50 54 33 46 48 64 46
51 Kenta Maeda SP 49.2 31 62 61 59 44 63 36 37 50
52 Blake Snell SP 49.6 41 43 55 57 58 49 51 39 53
53 Dinelson Lamet SP 50.1 33 NA 63 61 48 26 60 65 45
54 Pete Alonso 1B 52.4 55 59 36 72 64 28 71 40 47
55 Max Fried SP 53.9 69 32 46 65 45 58 62 60 48
56 Sonny Gray SP 56.2 57 60 59 52 60 68 44 38 68
57 Trent Grisham OF 56.4 50 NA 49 50 63 65 56 56 62
58 Aaron Judge OF 57.2 76 53 73 49 50 33 66 58 57
59 George Springer OF 57.5 68 NA 53 53 46 66 50 59 65
60 Brandon Lowe 2B 59.8 61 48 60 60 55 69 55 57 73
61 Mike Clevinger SP 61.6 56 64 57 80 70 48 73 42 64
62 Gleyber Torres 2B,SS 63.9 70 56 68 77 57 34 78 79 56
63 Teoscar Hernandez OF 64.1 73 63 72 55 71 50 65 61 67
64 Corbin Burnes RP 64.2 58 NA 67 69 69 64 77 47 63
65 Austin Meadows OF 64.3 83 NA NA 70 61 52 47 66 71
66 Nelson Cruz UT 65.4 59 61 52 62 72 75 63 67 78
67 Cavan Biggio 2B 66.8 82 NA 76 63 81 57 49 68 58
68 Michael Conforto OF 67.7 74 NA NA 67 68 70 54 82 59
69 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B 67.7 67 NA 62 73 95 36 69 72 NA
70 Keston Hiura 2B,OF 70 64 57 75 78 86 71 68 70 61
71 Hyun Jin Ryu NA 71.5 87 49 70 68 74 90 59 75 NA
72 Matt Olson 1B 74.2 63 65 69 76 89 85 81 63 77
73 Sixto Sanchez SP 74.9 62 NA NA 66 62 79 88 98 69
74 Ketel Marte 2B,OF 75.2 65 NA NA 97 83 67 70 69 NA
75 Carlos Carrasco SP 75.3 72 NA NA 83 79 82 85 71 55
76 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 75.5 92 NA NA 87 66 72 74 62 NA
77 Eugenio Suarez 3B 75.9 88 NA 54 84 84 61 84 78 74
78 Kyle Hendricks SP 76.3 101 NA NA 47 85 83 67 81 70
79 Yoan Moncada 2B,3B 76.9 79 NA 64 56 77 73 103 83 80
80 J.D. Martinez OF 78.3 84 NA NA 75 78 89 64 80 NA
81 Zach Plesac SP 78.5 86 NA 71 81 59 94 76 89 72
82 Zack Greinke SP 78.8 49 NA NA 92 65 80 90 97 NA
83 Javier Baez 2B,SS 80.5 81 50 65 71 92 114 87 84 NA
84 Charlie Blackmon OF 81.5 94 NA NA 64 90 77 91 73 NA
85 Stephen Strasburg SP 84 77 NA NA 95 73 74 80 105 NA
86 Josh Hader RP 84.2 71 NA NA 79 NA 76 94 101 NA
87 Yordan Alvarez UT 85.3 80 67 NA 86 88 98 92 86 NA
88 Nick Castellanos NA 85.4 78 NA NA 93 98 81 82 91 75
89 Zack Wheeler SP 86 98 NA NA 88 67 112 75 76 NA
90 Jesus Luzardo SP 86.4 NA NA NA 91 75 78 89 99 NA
91 Will Smith LAD C 87 NA NA NA NA NA 101 86 74 NA
92 Marcus Semien SS 91 NA NA NA NA NA 91 NA NA NA
93 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. SS,OF 93 93 NA NA 90 82 106 102 85 NA
94 Dominic Smith 1B,OF 93.1 99 NA NA 85 91 128 93 77 79
95 Liam Hendriks RP 94.3 A-75 A-35 A-66 112 99 84 95 100 76
96 Matt Chapman 3B 94.8 66 NA NA NA NA 87 120 106 NA
97 Dallas Keuchel SP 96 96 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
98 Anthony Rizzo 1B 96.6 NA NA NA 74 93 105 117 94 NA
99 Jose Berrios SP 96.8 90 NA NA 113 97 88 100 93 NA
100 Mike Yastrzemski OF 97 NA NA NA 115 NA NA NA 110 66
101 Chris Paddack SP 97.6 NA NA NA 105 76 104 101 102 NA
102 Wander Franco TB SS 98 NA NA NA NA NA NA 98 NA NA
103 Giancarlo Stanton OF 98.3 NA NA NA 98 NA 102 NA 95 NA
104 Dylan Bundy SP 99.2 NA NA NA 89 NA 115 97 96 NA
105 Patrick Corbin SP 99.8 NA NA NA 111 NA 117 83 88 NA
106 Devin Williams RP 100 100 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
107 Eddie Rosario OF 100.2 102 NA NA 103 NA 107 99 90 NA
108 Max Muncy 1B,2B,3B 101.2 NA NA NA 82 NA 119 112 92 NA
109 Tommy Pham OF 101.2 89 NA NA 94 NA 113 123 87 NA
110 Dansby Swanson SS 102 91 NA 77 108 NA 121 96 119 NA
111 Sandy Alcantara SP 102.6 NA NA NA 121 94 93 79 126 NA
112 Lance McCullers Jr. SP 103.2 NA NA NA 114 80 NA 111 108 NA
113 Kyle Lewis OF 103.4 95 NA NA 100 NA 118 72 132 NA
114 Andrew Benintendi OF 104 NA NA NA 104 NA NA NA NA NA
115 Byron Buxton OF 104 NA NA NA NA NA 97 NA 111 NA
116 Jeff McNeil 2B,OF 106 NA NA NA 116 87 103 108 116 NA
117 Josh Bell 1B 106 NA NA NA 101 NA 95 122 NA NA
118 Chris Taylor 2B,SS,OF 107 NA NA NA 107 NA NA NA NA NA
119 Jesse Winker OF 107 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 107 NA
120 Pablo Lopez SP 109 NA NA NA NA NA NA 109 NA NA
121 Ryan Mountcastle SS 109 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 109 NA
122 Jose Altuve 2B 109.2 NA NA NA 102 NA 122 110 103 NA
123 Yasmani Grandal C 109.5 NA NA NA 106 NA NA 113 NA NA
124 Kris Bryant 3B,OF 109.7 NA NA NA 110 NA 96 NA 123 NA
125 Salvador Perez C 109.7 NA NA NA NA NA 111 104 114 NA
126 Charlie Morton SP 110 NA NA NA NA NA 110 NA NA NA
127 Aroldis Chapman RP 111 NA NA NA NA NA 109 NA 113 NA
128 Wil Myers 3B,OF 111.5 NA NA NA 109 NA 127 106 104 NA
129 Alec Bohm 3B 111.7 NA NA NA NA NA 86 125 124 NA
130 Randy Arozarena OF 112.5 NA NA NA 127 96 99 128 NA NA
131 Frankie Montas SP 112.7 NA NA NA NA NA 108 105 125 NA
132 Joey Gallo OF 112.8 NA NA NA 123 NA 92 119 117 NA
133 Edwin Diaz RP 113.7 NA NA NA NA NA 100 121 120 NA
134 Kevin Gausman SP 114 NA NA NA NA NA NA 114 NA NA
135 Framber Valdez RP 114.2 NA NA NA 96 NA 120 107 134 NA
136 Jonathan Villar 2B,SS 114.5 NA NA NA 99 NA NA NA 130 NA
137 Marco Gonzales SP 114.7 85 NA A-74 126 NA NA NA 133 NA
138 Carlos Correa SS 115 NA NA NA 117 NA 116 NA 112 NA
139 Julio Urias SP 116 NA NA NA NA NA NA 116 NA NA
140 Ramon Laureano OF 116 97 NA NA NA NA 124 NA 127 NA
141 Jorge Soler OF 117 NA NA NA 119 NA NA NA 115 NA
142 Ian Anderson SP 118 NA NA NA NA NA NA 118 118 NA
143 Didi Gregorius SS 120.5 NA NA NA 120 NA NA NA 121 NA
144 Ian Happ OF 120.5 NA NA NA NA NA 126 115 NA NA
145 Dylan Moore 3B,SS,OF 122 NA NA NA 122 NA NA NA NA NA
146 Franmil Reyes OF 122 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 122 NA
147 Nick Madrigal 2B,SS 123 NA NA NA NA NA 123 NA NA NA
148 Jake Cronenworth 2B,SS 123.5 NA NA NA 118 NA NA NA 129 NA
149 Miguel Sano 3B 124 NA NA NA 124 NA NA NA NA NA
150 Shohei Ohtani SP 124 NA NA NA NA NA NA 124 NA NA
151 Chris Bassitt SP 125 NA NA NA NA NA 125 NA NA NA
152 Dustin May SP 125 NA NA NA 125 NA NA NA NA NA
153 Rhys Hoskins 1B,OF 127 NA NA NA NA NA NA 127 NA NA
154 Victor Robles OF 128 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 128 NA
155 David Price SP 129 NA NA NA NA NA NA 129 NA NA
156 Tony Gonsolin SP 129 NA NA NA 129 NA NA NA NA NA
157 Willson Contreras C 130.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA 126 135 NA
158 Max Kepler OF 131 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 131 NA
159 Michael Brantley OF 134 NA NA NA 128 NA NA NA 140 NA
160 Nick Anderson RP 136 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 136 NA
161 Gio Urshela 3B 137 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 137 NA
162 Brad Hand RP 138 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 138 NA
163 Kenley Jansen RP 139 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 139 NA
SOURCE: https://smadaplaysfantasy.com/2EarlyMocks/
Red= Autodrafted Player

 

I will post another update or two as things progress. All autodrafts are marked in the chart and were not calculated into the ADP. You can see the live ADP at https://smadaplaysfantasy.com/2EarlyMocks/

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Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

24 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Reuben WalkerMember since 2020
5 years ago

How is the pre-draft rankings list (for auto-drafting) generated?

1
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
5 years ago
Reply to  Reuben Walker

It’s by Fantrax’s value calculator.

0
dukewinslowMember since 2020
5 years ago

Alex Bregman WAY down there. Interesting.

-1
WerthlessMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

Only fell to the Rendon tier.

0
Mike DMember since 2016
5 years ago

For people who might want to see real-time results, maybe post the URL?

EDIT – Ignore. Its on the bottom of the table.

1
adwilk1231Member since 2020
5 years ago

I know there is no ideal way to handle the NAs but it seems misleading to me to exclude them from the calculated rank. As an example Wander Franco went undrafted in 7 of the 9 leagues yet is ranked at 98. In my own aggregations I usually give the NA the value of the last pick +1. Not elegant and definitely not fully reflective of where they would be ranked if the draft continued but not being picked has some information and should be included in the analysis. Also looks like a lot of recency bias creeping in here for a 60 game sample.

7
Bigperm8645Member since 2016
5 years ago
Reply to  adwilk1231

” Also looks like a lot of recency bias creeping in here for a 60 game sample.’

I plan on using that in drafts next year and dynasty trading this offseason. How many guys never got going (Pete Alonso, for example) and how many guys started out hot and would’ve cooled off with more games?

Also, how to assess teams like the Marlins (overrated?) and Cardinals (underrated?) due to long breaks and lots of 7 inning double headers?

0
dukewinslowMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  adwilk1231

you really want to do it, you can use a latent class analysis to “value” the NA appropriately. Maybe a Tobit would work too? I have to think about this a bit more. It’s not really a missing data problem because the NA IS data.

Thinking through the problem a bit more. The “true” value of an NA is some rank between last drafted plus 1 and the last eligible player on the list. It’s possible you could construct some value as a function of the “probability” of being drafted before and the ranks that one was drafted at. Given the ordinal distribution of the data, you can use the information about other players to decrease the error of that estimate. Seems like a slightly tweaked Cox model would work, now that I dig a bit.

-2
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
5 years ago
Reply to  adwilk1231

The NA’s are players that haven’t been drafted yet. The mocks are still going on

3
jonvanderlugtFanGraphs Staff
5 years ago
Reply to  adwilk1231

I am doing ((total unique players drafted across all drafts) + (the current pick in each individual draft) / 2). Not perfect either but it at least accounts for the fact that there are more total theoretical draft slots than just the very next one.

1
Buhners Rocket ArmMember since 2017
5 years ago

I still can’t believe so many people are using mid 2nd round picks on Darvish. When has he ever returned that kind of value in his entire career? Not only do we have to buy into his newly established performance as the new normal, but we need to expect he will start over 30 games, something he has only done 3x in his career. Fantasy experts always write that you can’t win a league in the early rounds, but you can lose a league. Owners are paying for a ceiling to justify the 2nd round pick while ignoring the risk of his floor that would put owners in a hole every year since his 2013 peak, with the exception of the 76 innings he just threw in 2020. There is NO WAY I want my second best player to be 34 years old without a long-established track record like Scherzer, Verlander, Arod, Manny, etc.

1
carterMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  Buhners Rocket Arm

“When has he ever returned that kind of value in his entire career? ”

This year when he was the 3rd most valuable pitcher, and 11th overall in standard 5×5 roto.

6
Buhners Rocket ArmMember since 2017
5 years ago
Reply to  carter

Like I wrote, you need to believe the 76 innings to be the new normal, and expect that at 34 years old he will maintain that level of performance for an entire season. To gamble on a player his age maintaining a new level of performance while ignoring the downside in the 2nd round is nuts. I wouldn’t consider Darvish inside the top 50 picks, same range that made gambling on Charlie Morton this year palatable.

3
carterMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  Buhners Rocket Arm

There is no chance he goes that late, so you wouldn’t be getting any shares, which obviously is your preference. You are also disregarding what he did down the stretch in 2019 also. He basically quit walking anyone: 16.86 k to bb in 2nd half w a fip of 1.16 in sept/october. His 2nd half last year was 2.76 era, 118ks in 81 ip. 0.81 whip. So over his last 157.2 ip (not too off from a season) he has a 2.39 era and 211 Ks and a .88 whip. That would be the #2 pitcher overall during that timeframe under deGrom.

So to answer your question no, I do not believe the 76ip is the new normal. I believe his last 157.2ip is his new normal, though. I still probably will not own him at that price as I see a lot of values behind him, but I’d certainly take him before anyone who is listed behind him, and maybe over a guy or two ahead of him as well.

9
Groundout
5 years ago
Reply to  Buhners Rocket Arm

Sure, this all makes sense , but to move him out of (say) the top 25, you have to move at least three other pitchers ahead of him — and who’s that going to be? Scherzer and Kershaw look like bigger health/age risks. Castillo, Buehler, and Giolito also have very short track records. You can talk me into Nola — but he was worse than Darvish both this year and last year, and that’s still just one guy.

Since we can’t just push every pitcher except the top three outside of the top 50 picks, I think we just have to accept that there’s downside everywhere, and hope for the best.

6
carterMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  Groundout

I agree with that. It’s early, so we don’t really know who signs where, etc. We don’t know if it’s still pandemic ball either, which would dictate how I view al/nl central pitchers.

Bauer if he signs in another division might fall a little, but if he signs in same division and/or gets his wish to pitch every 4 days (which I’ve heard is his term where he signs) he probably has to go number 1 overall. 40 starts vs 32, even regressing his probably 2021 projection makes him easily the most valuable player in the game based off of probable projections. It’s another 70+ Ks, wins, and getting lower whip/era out of one spot in your lineup at a higher rate. Basically every week would be a two start week unless he threw on Sunday week prior. Which is huge in weekly leagues.

0
Envy AngelMember since 2017
5 years ago

Are Bregman and Machado going to be eligible at SS next season?

2
Bless You BoysMember since 2025
5 years ago

Please let me know how I can join the league where Mike Trout goes 9th.

7
carterMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  Bless You Boys

I want to join league number 6

0
RobertMember since 2017
5 years ago

It’s nice to see I own 14 of the top 75 players in a Dynasty League, but it just reminds me of my epic last week collapse. 🙁

-7
Anonymous
5 years ago

If this holds, I want the turn. End of the first / top of the 2nd looks dynamite

3
Harold Reynolds
5 years ago

What round can we realistically expect Arozenrana to go in? Going to be a very interesting player come draft time.

2
carterMember since 2020
5 years ago
Reply to  Harold Reynolds

If the Yankees comeback in this series, I would imagine top 80ish.

If the Rays make the world series and he continues this godly performance (I am trying to find 22 at bats from other people where they put up a 405 wrc+) his price could be insane. Obviously he isn’t going to continue what he is doing now but he did have a 176 wRC+ in the regular season, and was incredibly hot to end the year as well. He also has elite speed, and seems to steal a fair amount of bases. While what he is doing now is obviously unsustainable check out his wRC+. Career 167! Last 5 partial seasons: 162,151,138,176,405. His manager said he is “Mookie Betts.” I was a believer before this year and basically drafted him everywhere in early january. So whatever that adp is I am going to be in, again. His stolen base totals by year in the minors : 18, 26, 19. A strong rest of the post season (assuming they advance) would have him in Luis Robert/Marte/Eloy/Tim Anderson range I would guess which seems fair. Which reminds me….wtf does Tim Anderson need to do? I’d take him over at least 15 guys ahead of him.

-1
yochuckieMember since 2025
5 years ago

Rizzo at #98? Who’s got nekid pix of who? Unless of course you get points for hitting ground balls into the shift. Then he’s a top 10.

-1