Archive for Featured

Late-Round Evaluations: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, & more

I’m going to continue my attention on fringe starters. They are the players who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I decided to not pull the pitchers out of thin air but moved from the #EarlyMock’s ADP to NFBC’s ADP. I’m still starting at the bottom and selecting any pitcher drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of the seven more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3).

#321: Nick Margevicius

His stats scream matchup streamer as a 4.50+ pitcher. There are not any standout tools, but he did see his strikeout rate increase (6.6 K/9 to 7.8 K/9) that followed a fastball velocity jump (88.3 mph to 90.0 mph). The jump is a little deceptive since he lost all the gains as the season progressed.


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What Happened To These Pitchers?

Have you ever had a bad day where you just wanted it to end? I know I have. Can you imagine having to go through an entire baseball season that you just wanted to end? A lot can go wrong for a pitcher, it can be anything from a nagging injury to a loss of velocity. The pitchers below took a step back in 2020 hurting fantasy owners around the world. Which begs the question, can they rebound?

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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

11:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello

11:05
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s finally nice to get a bit of free agent move with Ray and Smyly signing deals

11:06
S: Do you know how projection systems are handling the shortened season? I imagine they have to be using some cross validation techniques but can’t seem to find anything speaking specifically to this point.

11:07
Jeff Zimmerman: Most weigh each season by PA and a of total. For example, it might be 50% previous, 30% two years back and 20% from three years.

11:09
Jeff Zimmerman: For a normal three seasons, it might by 40 HR, 20 HR, 20 HR with 600 PA’s for a projection of 30 HR.

11:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Now assume 13 HR (200 PA) and the 20 for the other two season (600 PA). The projection is weighted to the 20’s and would be not be all the way to 30 this time.

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THE NEXT *TOP 75* HITTERS

In a recent episode of the podcast, I spoke with Alex Fast about some potential breakout starting pitchers at different levels and I really enjoyed that so I want to do the same for hitting. Today, we are going to identify some players who be the next Top 75 players. Just to give you an idea of that range, hitters like Pete Alonso and Adam Duvall were just inside in the Top 75 while Eric Hosmer and Kevin Pillar were juuust outside. So these are solid fantasy contributors for sure.

Sean Murphy, C | 205 ADP, 280 Player Rater

Murphy has been strong in two small MLB samples, totaling exactly 200 PA of a 132 wRC+ with 11 HR. The 27% K rate is born of no plan at the dish or a stark inability to make contact meaning there could be some improvement there, pushing his .237 AVG northward. The power will drive this profile and be a huge factor in whether or not he can reach this level while he also needs to be much closer to his MiLB .267 AVG, too.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 865 – MLB Award Winners

11/15/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3. Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 864 – Early 2B Preview, Pt. 2

11/12/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 2B PREVIEW

On the Rise

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 863 – Breakout SPs ft. Alex Fast

11/11/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 BREAKOUT STARTERS

Top 50 (Overall player, not SP) Going Pick 90-150 (5:00)

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Mining the News (11/11/20)

General

• Many hitters might wait to sign until the National League has said yes or no on the designated hitter.

Ozuna, who turns 30 on Thursday, is not strictly a DH. His agent, Melvin Roman, is marketing him as a left fielder who started 21 games in the outfield last season and was fully recovered from the shoulder surgery he underwent in October 2018. Braves coaches say Ozuna worked hard to strengthen his arm in his one season with the club, throwing every other day during summer training camp. With continued work, they believe his throwing can be average, his play in the outfield serviceable.

A rival executive was less convinced, saying, “He is a DH. If I was his agent, I’m not doing anything until I know the rules. I might have 30 suitors. Or I might have 15.” An agent for another free-agent position player agreed, saying, “If there were certainty with the DH, I believe everyone’s market would be enhanced.”

In a year with so many unknowns, early drafters might have to wait to find out who is playing where and what role they will play. It’ll be interesting to see how far unsigned players drop in ADP as the season gets closer to the March drafts.

• Jerry Dipoto believes the Mariners and other teams will only allow their pitchers to throw 170 innings next season.

“The one thing I’m certain of, is that the innings totals for our youngest starting pitchers — there’s only so far we’re going to be willing to go with them in 2021 as a result of this year’s short schedule,” he said. “And I think that makes us like 29 other teams in the industry. We’re not going to run starting pitchers out there for 170 innings next year. We’ll build them up more carefully.”

The reports on projected innings will be all over the place with Dylan Bundy planning on taking on a full workload. I think the assumption needs to start around Dipoto’s number (even though he’s not Bundy’s GM) and as reports come in, projections can be individually adjusted.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 862 – Early 2B Preview, Pt. 1

11/10/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

  • Managerial news

2021 2B Preview

Stars

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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

11:00
wes: What to do with Stanton in a keep-5 no penalties 12-teamer? Last four years of keeping him: one MVP and three ostensible zeroes. Still a Top-60 keeper?

11:01
Jeff Zimmerman: It really comes down to the other keeper options. I think he’s a borderline top-60 player so others could have moved up.

11:02
First Runner Up: Hello, I’m the guy who traded Gallen and Kyle Lewis for Clevinger in dynasty last February. Clearly I stink at ‘consolidation’ trades. Any indicators I should look toward to avoid these mistakes again?

11:03
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think it was a bad process trade. You were getting the best player and it there was no guarantee that Lewis would stick in the majors. I wouldn’t move off the strategy.

11:04
Jesse: Who do you think could be a lights out fantasy relevant middle reliever in 2021? Kinda like Williams and Karinchiak were this year

11:04
Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote about how to target them here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-to-target-middle-relievers/

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