Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Despite some of the big names populating the top of this position group, offensive production from first basemen has hit a nadir over the last few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. If you miss out on one of the top options at the position, you’re probably stuck with a guy you might need to platoon or with some other flaw. It also means that Util-only players like Ohtani, Ozuna, or Pederson can reasonably take the place of a second 1B on your roster if you don’t mind the inflexibility they bring to your lineup.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Not much more to say about these four guys beyond the obvious. If you want premium production from 1B, you’re going to have to pay up.

Here’s the cliff. There’s a pretty dramatic step down in production from Olson to Alonso but I think I’m more willing to pay for one of these mid-tier 1Bs than Chad is. That’s why I’ve got Walker, Casas, and Naylor all a tier higher than he does.

Ozuna is a really tough one to rank. His positional limitations will obviously hamper your lineup, but his outstanding production is undeniable. Like Chad, I prefer to have my Util open to flex in whomever I want, but there are maybe 18-20 guys who are projected to post a higher P/G than Ozuna is.

I’ve got some real concerns about Díaz’s ability to continue to produce at a high level outside of Tropicana Field. He gets so much more production out of his high groundball rate than you’d expect thanks to the turf inside the Rays’ ruined ballpark, but I’m worried that he won’t enjoy the same success now that the team will have to play in an outdoor Single-A ballpark this year.

Given a full-time role with the Cubs last year, Busch had a breakout season where he posted the 10th best wOBA among first basemen with at least 400 PAs. Losing 2B and 3B eligibility definitely hurts his overall value, but he’s serviceable as a 1B-only and there are certainly worse options at the position.

I’m not sure what to expect from Encarnacion-Strand. A wrist injury derailed his season last year and he’s only really accumulated half a season’s worth of plate appearances in the big leagues across the last two years. And the Reds seem intent on accumulating as many infielders as they can, which raises some playing time questions for CES and the other corner infielders on their roster. I’m fine paying a bit for his power potential, but I wouldn’t pay a premium with so many questions still surrounding him.

Chad and I tackled the two largest position groups to start off these rankings, so naturally, we’re starting off this week with the smallest and most straight forward: catcher.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Catcher is the awkward step-child of your fantasy roster — you have to invite them to the family reunion but no one is really excited to see them once they’re there. If you’re able to roster one of the top options, you’re probably pretty happy with their production; if you’re not willing to commit that much budget space to the position, there are plenty of cheap options to find if you wait.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

With catcher being such a unique position where your catcher may only play in two-thirds of his team’s games in any given week, regular playing time is at a premium. So when a player is eligible at catcher in fantasy, but is regularly playing other positions like first base or designated hitter, and therefore getting more playing time than if he was stuck behind the plate, it’s a slight competitive advantage over other players at the position. That’s the main reason why I have Willson Contreras and Perez ranked a tier higher than Chad. I’m willing to pay that premium to get their level of production in my lineup without having to worry about a replacement level catcher to make up the ~30–40 games my primary catcher will miss.

In his first full season as the Cardinals backstop, Herrera impressed with a .351 wOBA and excellent batted ball peripherals to back up that performance. He’s projected to start the season in a timeshare with Pedro Pagés, but I’m willing to bet that his bat will quickly prove that he’s the superior option and will wind up the primary catcher by midseason.

After a promising rookie campaign in 2023, Alvarez followed it up with a weird season in ‘24. His wOBA was exactly the same but his power output fell pretty significantly and his BABIP increased by a nice 69 points. The root causes were a jump in his groundball rate by more than eight points and a barrel rate that was nearly cut in half. Even though his overall production stayed stable, the shape of it is a bit concerning and has me worried about his potential ceiling.

Lucas kicked off our final position group as we look at our difficult keep or cut decisions ahead of the keeper deadline. Here are four starting pitchers on my keep/cut bubble.

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Aaron Nola, SP
Salary: $34
Average Salary: $33
2024 P/G: 4.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.39

2024 was the second consecutive season in which Aaron Nola’s FIP approached four. It’s not hard to see why; after a three-year stretch with a strikeout rate of 30% and a HR/FB rate of 12.5% from 2020-22, Nola has seen both of those metrics deteriorate pretty significantly. His 24% strikeout rate last year was the lowest that metrics has been since his rookie season back in 2015, and while he’s always struggled a bit with a home run problem, that issue has been exacerbated over the last two years.

The good news is that his trademark curveball is still a fantastically effective weapon and his four-seamer plays incredibly well off that breaking ball. The bad news is that his changeup and cutter both lost a ton of effectiveness in 2024, giving him fewer options to attack batters with. Until those other secondary offering regain their bite, I’m not sure he has the same kind of ceiling that we saw in 2022 when he posted a 2.58 FIP.

What Nola does have going for him is a steady track record of solid production while also making more than 30 starts in six straight seasons (ignoring the pandemic shortened season). That kind of bulk production certainly has value but if you’re expecting a front-line starter and paying those kinds of prices to roster him, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed. It’s also worth mentioning that Nola is a far better pitcher in 5×5 or 4×4 formats since his high home run rates really hurt him in Ottoneu points leagues.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting at $34 and I’d expect to see a ton of shares of Nola cut across the Ottoneu universe as players realize he’s just not the ace that his $33 average salary assumes he is anymore. I’m expecting a bit of a rebound — and the projections agree to a certain extent — but I wouldn’t pay more than $15 to keep him on my roster at this point.

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George Kirby, SP
Salary: $34, $19, $18
Average Salary: $19
2024 P/G: 4.92
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.72

I’m really conflicted about what to do with George Kirby. He’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch because he’s an absolute surgeon with his deep repertoire of outstanding pitches. Unfortunately, that precise command seems to be the cause of a lot of the issues that he’s had trouble overcoming during his first three seasons in the big leagues. Because he locates his pitches in the zone so frequently, batters can more easily identify out-of-the-zone pitches when he’s seeking a whiff. Despite running an elite 29.1% whiff rate on his four-seamer, batters have learned to sit on that pitch and regularly punish it after spitting on his secondary offerings.

This tension between maintaining an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio and limiting the hard contact he allows doesn’t have an easy answer either. He’s going to have to figure out how to maximize his secondary offerings while working on a less predictable approach to give batters some pause when they’re facing him. That might mean a few more walks over the course of the season, but if the result is more strikeouts and fewer balls in play, Kirby will likely continue to thrive. If he doesn’t make the necessary adjustments, then the depressed projection might be more accurate than we’d like.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting at $34 (or desperately trying to find a trade partner who really believes in Kirby), but keeping at $18 and $19. That’s pretty close to his current ceiling, but those adjustments could obviously break things wide open and that’s what you’re hoping for if you’re keeping him in the mid-$20s.

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Taj Bradley, SP
Salary: $10
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/G: 4.29
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.42

Taj Bradley started off last year brilliantly; through his first 14 starts, he had posted a 2.43 ERA and a 3.41 FIP behind a fantastic 30% strikeout rate. He fell apart in August and September and ended the season with an ERA and FIP both above four. It was just his second taste of the big leagues and many of his underlying metrics look promising, but there are still big questions about his ability to leverage those skills into a complete package.

All three of his secondary offerings returned a whiff rate over 30% last year. There are just a handful of pitchers who can say the same thing and all of them who can are among the best pitchers in baseball. Bradley’s downfall is his fastball. It’s got good physical characteristics — his 129 Stuff+ on his heater is outstanding — but batters don’t seem phased by it. Its whiff rate is decent, but when the pitch gets put in play, it gets absolutely pounded to the tune of a .391 xwOBA and a .500 slugging percentage against. Since he doesn’t have precise command of his repertoire, too many of his fastballs get left over the heart of the plate where they’re absolutely crushed.

The nasty secondary offerings give me hope that he’ll figure things out but I can’t ignore the very real contact issues he’s faced that have led to far too many home runs. His start to last year gives us a pretty good glimpse of what could be if things go right, but his second half is the red flag that warns us not to pay for that ceiling yet.

Keep or cut?

I honestly could go either way on keeping at $10 and so the decision likely comes down to team context and how my budget is shaping up. That double digit salary is the absolute highest I’d want to roster him for at this point.

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Bowden Francis, SP
Salary: $5, $7
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.46
Projected 2025 P/G: 3.68

Across his final nine starts of the season, Bowden Francis was nearly unhittable, producing a 1.53 ERA while striking out 56 in 59 innings. Those sterling results hid a lackluster 3.42 FIP and 3.75 xFIP during that stretch. Everyone is pointing to the splitter he added to his repertoire last year as the meaningful difference maker but I’d like to point out that he also increased the usage of his slider in August and September and that pitch returned a whiff rate over 50% during those two hot months.

Of course, the projection systems aren’t buying into that two-month stretch yet. They see a pretty steep drop off from what he accomplished in 2024, backed up by his advanced age and long minor league track record. An age-28 breakout isn’t unheard of but it’s pretty rare and it’s unlikely an indicator of a major talent change.

Keep or cut?

At $5, I’m interested in seeing if he really has made a tweak to his slider to unlock that pitch as a true swing-and-miss weapon. At $7, he has too many warts and question marks to keep.

After starting off with the largest position group last week, Chad and I are back with tiered Ottoneu rankings for the second largest position group: the two middle infield positions.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

The two middle infield positions are really interesting beasts to tackle. They’re both extremely top heavy with some of the best players in the game populating the top of these ranks. There’s a very steep cliff down from the top to the middle class and then the positions get really deep in the bargain bin section. You’re very likely to find a replacement level MI on the waiver wire if you look hard enough, which is important if you didn’t secure one or two of those top options on your roster. Because these positions are so top heavy, I think I’m willing to invest a little more budget to ensure I get one of the top options which is reflected in my rankings being a little higher than Chad’s pretty much across the board.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

There are exactly six players with a points per game played projection higher than Witt and he’s younger than all of them. If I was starting a brand-new Ottoneu league today, Witt might be my number one target to build around. You’re going to pay a premium to get Betts’s positional flexibility, but it might be worth it to roster one of the best players in baseball and be able to line him up wherever you want. I went back and forth on ranking Betts and Witt number one, but ultimately decided on Witt’s youth as the separator.

I have Marte a tier higher than Chad because he’s clearly the top 2B in baseball now (if you’re playing Betts at shortstop) and all of his contact quality peripherals took a huge jump in 2024. This isn’t a repeat of his 2019 “breakout” with the rabbit ball; this is legit improvement across every significant batted ball metric fueling a dramatic increase in production.

This second group of middle infielders all have their warts, though they’re still clearly a step above the pack. Whether it’s age (Altuve, Semien), injury (McLain, Correa), or inconsistent production (De Le Cruz, Cruz), it’s a lot harder to predict what you’re going to get from this cohort.

Turner is a tricky one to peg. He had the hiccup in 2023 in his first season in Philadelphia and then rebounded a bit in ‘24 thanks to a 20 point increase in his BABIP. Worryingly, his power output fell quite a bit and his contact quality wasn’t as sterling as it’s been in the past. The track record speaks for itself, but he just hasn’t been the same player as before since joining the Phillies.

I was really tempted to put Edwards in a higher tier because his projection is so rosy. So much of his success in 2024 was BABIP fueled, but he rode high BABIPs to great success as a minor leaguer. He’s got a great knack for squaring the ball up, even if he doesn’t have much oomph behind his swings, plus he’s got a great eye at the plate. It’s a volatile profile, but I think there’s value here.

Jordan Westburg has a weirdly low projection but his contact quality metrics are all solid. You’d obviously like to see a little higher walk rate from him, but he’s aggressive enough in the right counts to make the approach work. I originally had him in a tier lower, but I think his talent will push him into this higher tier once he gets a full season in the majors.

Finally! Some guys I’m lower on than Chad! Torres gave back all the gains he made with his strikeout rate in 2023 and posted a disappointing final season in the Bronx. Now he’s in Detroit and I really don’t like that park fit. Tovar has the ideal park fit but his hyper aggressive approach is going to produce some really low slumps to go along with his altitude fueled production. I really like the improvements Garcia has made over the last few years, but I just don’t see the ceiling to pay double digits for him right now.

My perspective on prospects is pretty starkly shown in my ranking of Jackson Holliday. Yes, he has a very high ceiling and he only just turned old enough to drink last month, but his debut season in the big leagues was a disaster all around. There were a few encouraging things under the hood, but he really needs to prove it before I’m comfortable investing a significant portion of my budget on rostering him. Could I regret that stance in a few years when he’s established himself as a superstar? Maybe.

After a year hiatus, I’ll be presenting my Ottoneu tiered positional rankings alongside Chad. If you’re wondering about the format and methodology, you can find all of that in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

In Ottoneu, you’re afforded five starting spots for your outfielders. That creates a situation where the position is simultaneously deep and shallow. The top of the position is filled with superstars but you’ll be able to find solid production all the way down into the middle tiers. There does seem to be a pretty significant drop off once you get 40 deep which means you’ll likely be filling out the last couple of spots in your outfield with flawed players. Generally, if you’re able to fill at least three of your OF spots with full-time, consistent contributors, you can grab a handful of low cost players to mix and match and platoon based on matchups.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

You can’t go wrong with either of these guys at the top of the rankings. Chad has Judge in a tier all on his own above Soto but I think they’re closer in value simply based on Soto’s age. On that basis alone, you could make an argument that Soto should be ranked first — I won’t make that argument, but you could.

I understand the trepidation behind Chad ranking Acuña lower in his rankings, but the projections absolutely believe that he’ll return from his knee injury and simply continue producing like one of the best players in baseball. It probably won’t be as simple as that, but the talent is undeniable and he’s still just 27 years old.

I also have Tucker and Tatis Jr. swapped in the rankings and that’s mostly due to the wide gap in the projections between the two. There’s a pretty significant cliff between the two of them, and all things considered, I’d rather have Tucker around $50 than Tatis Jr. at the same price.

Although they’re in the same tier as Chad, I’ve ranked that trio of young outfielders a little lower ordinally. Both Carroll and Rodríguez struggled to some degree in 2024 and Chourio only just got his first taste of the big leagues last year. The sky’s the limit for all three of them, but I think you’re going to suffer though some growing pains with all of them before they really hit their ceiling.

I originally had Trout in the tier above in my first draft of these rankings but I think I agree with Chad; we really just don’t know what to expect from him anymore and the reality is that you’re probably paying for a partial season and will be pleasantly surprised if he can stay healthy for 150 games.

I also have Rooker a tier above Chad though ordinally ranked the same. I believe in the changes he’s made to his plate approach last year and the contact quality is undeniable. Plus, he’ll be playing in a much friendlier home ballpark in Sacramento.

This is a really interesting tier because you’ll find stable veterans who will consistently produce in Yelich, Suzuki, and Reynolds alongside youngsters who broke out last year in Duran, Greene, Merrill. Do you want that stability or would you rather dream on a guy who could grow? I think most Ottoneu players would say the latter, which means the former is a little undervalued, especially for teams who need just a piece or two to push for a championship.

I like Duran a bit more than Chad and a lot more than the projections. Duran improved his barrel rate by nearly four points while simultaneously improving his plate discipline in his breakout 2024 season. Steamer sees a pretty significant step back from that level of production but I believe in the changes and think he can replicate it this season.

For Soler and Bellinger, I think their new home ballparks will give them both a boost into a higher tier.

Lee and Buxton both have great projections but their health is a huge question mark. If you’re okay with that risk, they could both be really solid players for your team, except they may only be available for half a season.

Friedl is probably the biggest disagreement between me and Chad’s rankings. I get that all of Friedl’s underlying batted ball metrics look pretty terrible, but his plate approach is stellar and I think there’s a bit of Isaac Paredes in him. His pull rate was over 48% in 2024 and I think he’s selective enough to do damage on his pulled contact while still slapping singles around the field. The biggest reason his production fell last year was because his BABIP cratered to .229; in 2023 when he posted a 115 wRC+, his BABIP was just a hair above league average at .308. He also doesn’t have a traditional platoon split; rather, he has a reverse split where he’s been able to thrive against left-handed pitching by putting the ball in play while reserving all of his pulled and elevated contact against right-handed pitching.

I think the other big difference between me and Chad — and this is going to be true for every position — is that I just don’t value prospects all that highly. If I’m rostering a prospect, I want them to be nearly MLB-ready, have a clear path to playing time in the near future, and they need to have a high FV grade. Rostering a 50 FV prospect who is two to three years away from even sniffing the majors just doesn’t feel like good value to me. By the time they’re established and producing for your fantasy team, their salary is likely to be $5-$7 higher than what you’re rostering them for currently. That’s why there’s that group of prospects at the tail end of my $0-$1 tier who are all ranked higher by Chad.

After covering difficult keep/cut decisions at the infield positions the last few weeks, the RotoGraphs Ottoneu team will turn our attention to the outfield this week (and possibly next week too). Here are five guys on my keep/cut bubble.

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Michael Harris II, OF
Salary: $27
Average Salary: $18
2024 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2025 P/G: 6.02

Michael Harris’ struggles in his third big league season were all the result of the hamstring injury that cost him two months of the season, right? When you split his season pre-injury and post-injury, things don’t really line up with that narrative. Before he hit the IL, he was posting a rather disappointing .250/.295/.358 slash line, good for an 80 wRC+ with a particularly conspicuous absence of power. After he returned from his injury, he was a lot more productive at the plate, slashing .283/.318/.506 (125 wRC+) but stole just two bases through the end of the season.

Under the hood, everything looked right in line with the norms he had established for himself through the first two seasons of his career. His hard hit rate, barrel rate, xwOBA, and wOBA were all well above league average and his aggressive high contact approach at the plate remained intact. It wasn’t just simple bad luck either, though his BABIP did fall 34 points from 2023; his BABIP was nearly exactly the same before and after his hamstring injury. The only thing I can see is a batted ball mix that was a little out of whack early in the season; his groundball rate was over 53% through mid-June and his pull rate was nearly 10 points higher than what it was the year prior. Both of those metrics came back down towards his norms in August and September and his results on balls in play benefitted.

And then there’s his Steamer projection for 2025. The computer is enamoured with his potential to breakout next year and ZiPS shares in the optimism. Harris will turn 24 under a month before Opening Day and apparently his rebound during the second half of this season was enough to convince the computers that his struggles during the first half were just a mirage.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping Harris at $27 (or I would have if I hadn’t just traded him away in that league for a $43 Corbin Carroll). Still, that feels like a ceiling for him. It assumes the projections are right and that he’s due for a significant improvement in 2025, but it doesn’t leave much room for him to produce much surplus value if that improvement comes to fruition.

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Luis Robert Jr., OF
Salary: $29
Average Salary: $28
2024 P/G: 4.03
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.07

A hip injury sustained in early April sidelined Luis Robert Jr. for two months of the season and he never really recovered once he returned to the field. Between the injury, the constant trade rumors, and the historically bad team surrounding him, it was a miserable year for Robert. His strikeout rate spiked to 33.2% and his power output dipped to just a .155 ISO as he limped to a career-worst 84 wRC+.

There’s certainly some cause for concern when looking at his peripherals. His hard hit rate dipped slightly but his barrel rate fell by more than five points. That tells me that his overall quality of contact was intact but something else in his batted ball mix was leading to a lower power output. Indeed, his pull rate fell nearly 13 points, down to 34%. In the two seasons where his pull rate has been higher than 40%, Robert has posted wRC+s of 155 (43.1% pull rate) and 128 (46.8%); in his other three seasons in the majors with a pull rate under 40%, his wRC+ has been 111 or lower.

And then there’s his plate discipline issues. He’s always been an aggressive swinger, but the amount of damage he was capable of doing on contact helped him offset some of those strikeout issues. Well, he cut his overall swing rate by more than five points but his contact rate continued a two-year downward trend so the result was a lot more called strikes and a nearly five point jump in strikeout rate.

Honestly, between the lackluster season in 2024, the injury issues, and the red flags in both his batted ball and plate discipline peripherals, it’s agonizingly difficult to evaluate Robert. We know that when everything clicks and he’s firing on all cylinders, he can be a phenomenal offensive producer, but the inconsistency will kill you. His 2025 projection isn’t very rosy either.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting at $29 and I’d cut all the way down to around $15. Unless he’s traded to a much better team environment this offseason, I’m avoiding him wherever I can.

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Spencer Steer, 1B/OF
Salary: $8, $14, $18
Average Salary: $12
2024 P/G: 4.66
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.02

I really loved Spencer Steer for his multi-positional eligibility which is why I rostered him wherever I could. Now that he’s lost 2B and 3B eligibility, I’ve got to figure out how to evaluate him as an OF with a bit of flexibility at 1B. The player pool at his new position isn’t as shallow as it was at 2B or even 3B but it can be tricky to roster five reliable outfielders to fill all five of those lineup spots in Ottoneu. He’s lost a bit of value by simply going from four eligible positions down to two, but not as much as I think you’d expect.

As for his actual on-field production, 2024 was a bit of a weird year for him. Everything in his peripherals looked stable; his batted ball data was solid and his plate discipline even slightly improved. Despite all that, his wOBA fell from .355 to .316 thanks to a 58 point drop in BABIP. There’s nothing amiss with his batted ball data or his plate approach — it really seems like he was just the victim of old fashioned bad luck.

The projections don’t see his BABIP returning to his 2023 levels and nor should they; he isn’t very fast and he elevates too much of his contact to take advantage of a high line drive rate. A BABIP just below league average is a pretty good bet to make and that’s exactly where the computer pegs him.

Keep or cut?

I’m happy to keep him up to $15 or $16 I think. $18 is probably too high, especially without the positional flexibility that made him so valuable the last few years.

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Nolan Jones, OF
Salary: $10
Average Salary: $9
2024 P/G: 3.16
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.97

Are you willing to pay for a breakout that’s now two years removed? That’s the central question surrounding Nolan Jones. His season in 2024 was marred by a recurring back injury and he had plenty of issues reproducing his outstanding season from ‘23 when he was on the field. His hard hit rate actually increased by three and half points but his power production cratered despite all the hard contact. It’s not hard to figure out what happened either; his groundball rate jumped almost 10 points and his pull rate fell by more than 10 points. That’s a seriously bad combination for a power hitter.

Assuming he’s healthy in 2025, it’s difficult to know what to expect from Jones. The projection essentially splits the difference between his breakout season and injury marred season. We can be pretty assured that his .401 BABIP from 2023 won’t happen again but his power gains all looked legitimate. If he can figure out how to start pulling and elevating his contact again, his home ballpark and fantastic contact quality give him a pretty high ceiling. There are a lot of “ifs” that need to go right for his 2025 season to be successful, making the risk pretty high if you opt to keep him.

Keep or cut?

I think I’m fine with keeping at $10 but no higher. That feels like a decent price to pay for the potential that he’s healthy and figures out all his batted ball issues. It’s also cheap enough that he becomes an easy cut if his 2023 breakout turns out to be just a flash in the pan.

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Matt Wallner, OF
Salary: $4 (x2)
Average Salary: $6
2024 P/G: 5.36
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.90

Chad asked me to include Wallner here because I just acquired him in one of our shared leagues in exchange for Jazz Chisholm Jr. I understand the hesitation surrounding him. He’s got an extremely volatile profile full of strikeouts and tons of power. The highs will be excellent — like the 169 wRC+ he posted from July 7 through the end of the season — but the lows will likely be unplayable. To make matters more complicated, he’s likely to be platooned heavily since he’s absolutely atrocious against left-handed pitching. Thankfully, he’s on the strong side of the platoon, but a part-time player is a little more difficult to roster.

But let’s look at what he’s capable of. The 169 wRC+ over the final three months of the season was fantastic, but that came with a .410 BABIP and a 34.2% strikeout rate. What he does have going for him is outrageously good contact quality. His hard hit and barrel rates, xwOBA, and max exit velocity all sat in the top 5% in the majors. He may not make much contact, but when he does, ball go far.

Keep or cut?

I don’t want to overhype a player because the red flags in Wallner’s profile are certainly glaring, but he’s got a lot of prime Joey Gallo in him and he was an incredibly valuable player in Ottoneu for a long time. I’m happy to keep at $4 on the chance that Wallner actually does turn into the second coming of Gallo, but even if he settles in as a lesser version of Gallo, that’s still a valuable player in a format that rewards power and patience. The ceiling is a bit trickier to determine but I think I’d keep Wallner up to $6 or $7 and there’s probably a good chance he’ll go for even more at auction.

Lucas started off this week with a look at tough keep or cut decisions at 2B and SS. Now it’s my turn with four guys on the keep/cut bubble.

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Bo Bichette, SS
Salary: $28, $34
Average Salary: $29
2024 P/G: 3.04
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.31

I’m sure I’m not the only Ottoneu player wondering what the heck to do with Bo Bichette this offseason. His 2024 season was marred by multiple calf injuries and then cut short in the middle of September by a fractured finger. Even when he was on the field, he was horrendous, posting career worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, wOBA, and xwOBA. It would be easy to chalk up his struggles to those injuries and expect a rebound season for him in 2025, but there were already some yellow flags in his profile before this year.

Bichette’s power output has been steadily declining year-over-year since peaking at a .260 ISO during his rookie year. His 2021 breakout now seems like a distant memory after settling in with a .348 wOBA across the two years afterwards. Despite all his injury issues this year, his hard hit rate stayed relatively stable even if his barrel rate collapsed. That tells me that he had no trouble making solid contact but his batted ball profile was all out of whack. Indeed, when we look at his rate of pulled elevated contact, 2024 represented a career low for him — just 19% of his elevated contact went to his pull side. His 29 home runs in 2021 notwithstanding, Bichette isn’t a traditional slugger but pulling the ball with authority is a surefire way to generate extra-base hits. Without that power, Bichette has produced a lot more empty batting average than you’d like to see, and that type of hitter just isn’t as valuable in Ottoneu than in traditional 5×5 leagues.

Steamer isn’t exactly bought in on a full bounce back either. It’s calling for a .330 wOBA which would have been a career low for him had 2024 not happened. My rankings aren’t sure what to do with him either as they currently show him in the mid-teens at shortstop in a tier with CJ Abrams and Xavier Edwards. That feels too low based on what he’s accomplished in the past but there are just so many question marks about what his product will look like in 2025.

Keep or cut?

I think $34 is too high a price with so much uncertainty surrounding him which makes him an easy cut in that league. $28 feels like it’s right on the cusp of the cut line too, but I think I’m up for gambling at that price. I could probably get him back in the draft somewhere around that price, but I’d rather hold on to him just for the roster clarity.

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Brandon Lowe, 1B/2B
Salary: $13
Average Salary: $10
2024 P/G: 4.97
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.12

Oh look, another guy who feels tricky to evaluate due to injuries. Brandon Lowe’s injury history is much more extensive than Bichette’s, but to Lowe’s credit, he’s performed decently well when on the field. This year, he actually posted his best wRC+ since his monster season in 2021, and he only had one trip to the IL for an oblique strain towards the beginning of the season. Once he returned from that injury, he posted a scorching hot 152 wRC+ over the next three months, from May 20 through August 18. Afterwards, he fell into a bit of a slump and finished the season with an overall wRC+ of 123.

His batted ball peripherals all looked good; his hard hit and barrel rates all fell within his established norms and his power production was the best it’s been since 2021. There were some yellow flags in his plate discipline, however. His walk rate had sat at 11% over the last four years but fell to just 7.8% this year. His strikeout rate fell by about a point, which is good news, but the missing free passes are a lot more concerning. It all stems from an approach that was a lot more aggressive; his overall swing rate was a career high and was largely fueled by a five point jump in his zone swing rate. Swinging at more strikes is better than swinging at pitches outside the zone, but unless it comes with a corresponding jump in contact rate, it’s going to negatively affect his walk rate. That’s exactly what happened. He swung more often, didn’t make any more contact, and wound up walking and striking out less.

Of course, the real question for Lowe is how much he’ll end up playing in 2025. Between the injuries and the Rays careful handling of him against left-handed pitching, he’s accumulated more than 450 plate appearances in exactly one season during his career. On a per-plate-appearance basis, he’s one of the most productive second basemen out there, but rostering him means you’ll need to have a backup plan ready to go for 300 or so plate appearances.

Keep or cut?

His injuries and lack of playing time have depressed Lowe’s value these past few seasons, but he can really hit when he’s healthy. Still, $13 feels like it’s a bit too high to bet on a full season from Lowe. His average salary of $10 seems like a much better ceiling.

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Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF
Salary: $4, $7
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/G: 5.06
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.46

An absolutely ridiculous month of July fueled Tyler Fitzgerald’s surprise breakout this year. Seriously, he hit .321/.390/.849 across 15 games that month and quickly took over the starting shortstop gig for a Giants team that was going nowhere. He continued to hit well through the end of the season and is slated to begin next season as the Giants starting second baseman after they signed Willy Adames.

He was ranked 26th on the Giants preseason prospect list as a 35+ FV prospect so his ascent and subsequent breakout were genuine surprises. Looking at all of his batted ball peripherals explains why no one really believes he’ll be able to replicate his success in 2025. He had below average exit velocity, hard hit rate, whiff rate, and xwOBA and his barrel rate was only slightly above average. His sweet spot rate was very high and his sprint speed was among the highest in baseball which could explain how he sustained such a high BABIP.

Fitzgerald’s entire approach is based on pulling the ball with authority; it’s the same kind of approach that Isaac Paredes uses with such great success. Indeed, look at how correlated Fizgerald’s pull rate is with his wOBA.

When he was crushing pitches to left field in July and August, he was a legitimate threat in San Francisco’s lineup. The issue is that this kind of approach is easily exploitable unless the batter has a good eye and can wait for the right pitch, like Paredes does. Unfortunately for Fitzgerald, he simply has too much swing-and-miss in his profile and isn’t patient enough to make his pull-happy ways work in the big leagues. My guess is that he’ll be a pretty streaky hitter in 2025, with some peaks like we saw this year, but an overall below average hitter.

Keep or cut?

Despite all the red flags laid out above, I’m not necessarily out on Fitzgerald at $4. He’ll add 2B back to his positional eligibility fairly quickly and a MI with his kind of potential for a hot streak is useful at that price. $7 feels like you’re paying for his July and August with the expectation that that hot streak is closer to his true talent and that’s just not going to be the reality.

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Michael Massey, 2B
Salary: $3, $5
Average Salary: $4
2024 P/G: 3.98
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.51

I’m going to make this quick. Let’s play Chad’s favorite game: how many points did Michael Massey earn in games that he started? 4.64 points per game started! That’s a useful bench MI, and because he’s on the strong side of a platoon, it’s pretty easy to know when to lock him into your lineup or leave him on the bench. What’s funny is that even though the Royals protected him against left-handed pitching, Massey’s platoon split was just 4 points of wOBA.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping at $3. At $5 things get a little dicey but it sounds like the Royals might be open to using Massey in the outfield now that they’ve acquired Jonathan India. Adding that positional flexibility might make him worth the extra couple of dollars.

After Chad Young and Lucas Kelly covered their keep or cut decisions at catcher before Thanksgiving, I’m kicking off our coverage of the two corner infield positions this week.

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Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Salary: $11
Average Salary: $21
2024 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.08

Paul Goldschmidt limped through his worst season in the big leagues at age 36, setting career worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, isolated power, wOBA, xwOBA, walk rate, and strikeout rate. He’s a free agent and entering his age-37 season. He just might be cooked.

So let’s turn to the favorite tool of the fantasy baseball optimists, the rolling graph:

Here we see Goldschmidt’s season in 20-game increments. There’s a noticeable peak during the second half of the season. Indeed, he posted a .271/.319/.480 slash line and a 120 wRC+ after the All-Star break. That’s still a far cry from his peak as a slugging first baseman, but it’s definitely useful and his little hot streak in early September gave us a glimpse of what he could be in his old age.

In a fantasy baseball format so laser focused on future value, aging veterans often go undervalued in Ottoneu. I picked up Goldschmidt for $9 in September after a frustrated owner cut him to clear some cap space. His current $21 average salary is assuredly inflated by owners who held onto him through the end of the season but are planning on cutting him prior to the keeper deadline. In my preliminary rankings based on the currently available Steamer projections (and a homebrew of other data sources), I have Goldschmidt ranked around tenth at the position in a tier with Vinnie Pasquantino and Nathaniel Lowe among others. Of course I’d rather have either of those two younger hitters in my lineup, but Goldschmidt will probably come cheaper than any of the other players in the tier.

Will he be worth $11 next year? Steamer seems to think that he isn’t as cooked as his 2024 season would lead us to believe. Five points per game from a first baseman isn’t as bad as you might expect from the position. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but offensive production from first basemen has gone missing the past few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. According to the Auction Calculator, Lowe returned $11 in value in 2024 with a .337 wOBA. Goldschmidt’s wOBA during the second half of the season was .340. I’m willing to bet that a hitter as good as he is will figure out a way to continue to be productive in 2025 and hold off Father Time for at least one more year.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping at $11 and I’d consider it all the way up to $14 or $15. I wouldn’t want to head into the season with Goldschmidt as the only 1B on my roster, but I think there’s probably a bit of life left in his bat.

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Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B/OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $16
2024 P/G: 5.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.49

I don’t actually think this decision is all that hard. I’ve got Jazz on my roster at a salary a dollar under the Ottoneu average and I think that average is going to see a lot of inflation during draft season. His helium after getting traded to the Yankees is very real and probably deserved. He increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York fueling a very nice 69 point increase in isolated power. His 132 wRC+ with the Yanks was much more in line with his short-lived breakout back in 2022 than his injury-plagued season in ‘23 and the beginning of this year.

This, then, is more of a warning to keep your expectations in check. This year represented the first time Chisholm was able to cross the 600 PA threshold in his career as he was finally healthy for the majority of the year. Beyond the injury concerns, there’s also his unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York — nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, a level reserved for the best sluggers in the game. Sure, Jazz has enjoyed elevated home run rates in the past (23.3% and 23.5% in 2022 and ‘23), but those both came in injury abbreviated seasons and home run rates usually take a while to stabilize.

I’ll go ahead and argue against myself and point out that Chisholm increased his pull rate after joining the Yankees, no doubt looking to take advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. There’s no question he was energized after the trade and made some key adjustments to improve his batted ball quality, I just think that some level-headed thinking should temper our expectations a bit. Steamer seems to agree, pegging Jazz for a wOBA exactly in line with his overall 2024 line (which includes the lackluster performance he put together in Miami before the trade).

I’ve got him ranked somewhere around eighth at 3B in a tier with Mark Vientos, Matt Chapman, and Max Muncy. The position is actually quite deep these days which means his upside really needs to stand out against all the other options out there. I’d rather roster him or Vientos than Chapman or Muncy if I’m picking one out of that tier.

Keep or cut?

I’m happily keeping at $15 and I think it probably makes sense up to around $18. There’s also the question of where the Yankees will end up playing Jazz next year after the departure of Gleyber Torres. If they move him back to 2B and he ends up regaining eligibility there, his value will skyrocket.

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Jake Burger, 1B/3B
Salary: $16
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.96
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.03

Jake Burger had a weird season this year. He was injured in early April, really struggled upon his return, and then was pretty streaky through the end of the season. He produced some phenomenal numbers in July and August — a 162 wRC+ during those two summer months — but struggled pretty dramatically during the other four months of the season. His full season slash line ended up being just okay at .250/.301/.460 good for a 106 wRC+. That was a pretty significant step back from his breakout in 2023.

The good news is that his batted ball peripherals looked pretty stable from that breakout year. His hard hit and barrel rates both decreased slightly, but they were still among the best in the game. He incrementally improved his plate discipline and contact rate as well. It kind of seems like his struggles were mostly BABIP related and a product of an elevated ground ball rate.

As soon as he cut his ground ball rate to around 40% in the middle of the season, his power numbers exploded. That’s not surprising for someone with his kind of batted ball quality, but it’s good to see it layed out so nicely in that graph above.

Because of his inconsistent performance this year, I’ve got him ranked around 13th at the position in a tier alongside fellow 1B/3Bs Alec Bohm and Isaac Paredes. His batted ball peripherals are better than both of those other hitters, making his upside a little more tangible.

Keep or cut?

I do like Burger and I think he’ll be better than his ‘24 numbers and Steamer projection suggest, but I think $16 is too much to pay for the risk that he doesn’t figure it out. I think I’d be happier paying between $10 and $12 all things considered.

This article ranks the top 25 hitting prospects by peak projected MLB wRC+ heading into 2025, continuing an annual tradition (skip to the bottom for the ranking!). It is a counterpart to the top 25 pitching prospects piece I published last month.

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Continuing an annual tradition, this article ranks the top 25 starting pitching prospects by peak projected MLB ERA heading into 2025 (skip to the bottom for the ranking!)

Like the other projection systems at FanGraphs, my projections capture the usual ingredients: past performance weighted by recenecy, regression to the mean that accounts for a player’s probability of making the major leagues, major league equivalencies to adjust for minor league difficulty, aging, park effects, and league scoring environment. The peak projections make use of aging curves to translate a player’s forecast to a late-20s peak forecast. Regardless of where the “true” peak age is, there is broad consensus that most growth happens in the teen years and early-20s, however.

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