After a year hiatus, I’ll be presenting my Ottoneu tiered positional rankings alongside Chad. If you’re wondering about the format and methodology, you can find all of that in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

In Ottoneu, you’re afforded five starting spots for your outfielders. That creates a situation where the position is simultaneously deep and shallow. The top of the position is filled with superstars but you’ll be able to find solid production all the way down into the middle tiers. There does seem to be a pretty significant drop off once you get 40 deep which means you’ll likely be filling out the last couple of spots in your outfield with flawed players. Generally, if you’re able to fill at least three of your OF spots with full-time, consistent contributors, you can grab a handful of low cost players to mix and match and platoon based on matchups.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

You can’t go wrong with either of these guys at the top of the rankings. Chad has Judge in a tier all on his own above Soto but I think they’re closer in value simply based on Soto’s age. On that basis alone, you could make an argument that Soto should be ranked first — I won’t make that argument, but you could.

I understand the trepidation behind Chad ranking Acuña lower in his rankings, but the projections absolutely believe that he’ll return from his knee injury and simply continue producing like one of the best players in baseball. It probably won’t be as simple as that, but the talent is undeniable and he’s still just 27 years old.

I also have Tucker and Tatis Jr. swapped in the rankings and that’s mostly due to the wide gap in the projections between the two. There’s a pretty significant cliff between the two of them, and all things considered, I’d rather have Tucker around $50 than Tatis Jr. at the same price.

Although they’re in the same tier as Chad, I’ve ranked that trio of young outfielders a little lower ordinally. Both Carroll and Rodríguez struggled to some degree in 2024 and Chourio only just got his first taste of the big leagues last year. The sky’s the limit for all three of them, but I think you’re going to suffer though some growing pains with all of them before they really hit their ceiling.

I originally had Trout in the tier above in my first draft of these rankings but I think I agree with Chad; we really just don’t know what to expect from him anymore and the reality is that you’re probably paying for a partial season and will be pleasantly surprised if he can stay healthy for 150 games.

I also have Rooker a tier above Chad though ordinally ranked the same. I believe in the changes he’s made to his plate approach last year and the contact quality is undeniable. Plus, he’ll be playing in a much friendlier home ballpark in Sacramento.

This is a really interesting tier because you’ll find stable veterans who will consistently produce in Yelich, Suzuki, and Reynolds alongside youngsters who broke out last year in Duran, Greene, Merrill. Do you want that stability or would you rather dream on a guy who could grow? I think most Ottoneu players would say the latter, which means the former is a little undervalued, especially for teams who need just a piece or two to push for a championship.

I like Duran a bit more than Chad and a lot more than the projections. Duran improved his barrel rate by nearly four points while simultaneously improving his plate discipline in his breakout 2024 season. Steamer sees a pretty significant step back from that level of production but I believe in the changes and think he can replicate it this season.

For Soler and Bellinger, I think their new home ballparks will give them both a boost into a higher tier.

Lee and Buxton both have great projections but their health is a huge question mark. If you’re okay with that risk, they could both be really solid players for your team, except they may only be available for half a season.

Friedl is probably the biggest disagreement between me and Chad’s rankings. I get that all of Friedl’s underlying batted ball metrics look pretty terrible, but his plate approach is stellar and I think there’s a bit of Isaac Paredes in him. His pull rate was over 48% in 2024 and I think he’s selective enough to do damage on his pulled contact while still slapping singles around the field. The biggest reason his production fell last year was because his BABIP cratered to .229; in 2023 when he posted a 115 wRC+, his BABIP was just a hair above league average at .308. He also doesn’t have a traditional platoon split; rather, he has a reverse split where he’s been able to thrive against left-handed pitching by putting the ball in play while reserving all of his pulled and elevated contact against right-handed pitching.

I think the other big difference between me and Chad — and this is going to be true for every position — is that I just don’t value prospects all that highly. If I’m rostering a prospect, I want them to be nearly MLB-ready, have a clear path to playing time in the near future, and they need to have a high FV grade. Rostering a 50 FV prospect who is two to three years away from even sniffing the majors just doesn’t feel like good value to me. By the time they’re established and producing for your fantasy team, their salary is likely to be $5-$7 higher than what you’re rostering them for currently. That’s why there’s that group of prospects at the tail end of my $0-$1 tier who are all ranked higher by Chad.

After covering difficult keep/cut decisions at the infield positions the last few weeks, the RotoGraphs Ottoneu team will turn our attention to the outfield this week (and possibly next week too). Here are five guys on my keep/cut bubble.

–

Michael Harris II, OF
Salary: $27
Average Salary: $18
2024 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2025 P/G: 6.02

Michael Harris’ struggles in his third big league season were all the result of the hamstring injury that cost him two months of the season, right? When you split his season pre-injury and post-injury, things don’t really line up with that narrative. Before he hit the IL, he was posting a rather disappointing .250/.295/.358 slash line, good for an 80 wRC+ with a particularly conspicuous absence of power. After he returned from his injury, he was a lot more productive at the plate, slashing .283/.318/.506 (125 wRC+) but stole just two bases through the end of the season.

Under the hood, everything looked right in line with the norms he had established for himself through the first two seasons of his career. His hard hit rate, barrel rate, xwOBA, and wOBA were all well above league average and his aggressive high contact approach at the plate remained intact. It wasn’t just simple bad luck either, though his BABIP did fall 34 points from 2023; his BABIP was nearly exactly the same before and after his hamstring injury. The only thing I can see is a batted ball mix that was a little out of whack early in the season; his groundball rate was over 53% through mid-June and his pull rate was nearly 10 points higher than what it was the year prior. Both of those metrics came back down towards his norms in August and September and his results on balls in play benefitted.

And then there’s his Steamer projection for 2025. The computer is enamoured with his potential to breakout next year and ZiPS shares in the optimism. Harris will turn 24 under a month before Opening Day and apparently his rebound during the second half of this season was enough to convince the computers that his struggles during the first half were just a mirage.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping Harris at $27 (or I would have if I hadn’t just traded him away in that league for a $43 Corbin Carroll). Still, that feels like a ceiling for him. It assumes the projections are right and that he’s due for a significant improvement in 2025, but it doesn’t leave much room for him to produce much surplus value if that improvement comes to fruition.

–

Luis Robert Jr., OF
Salary: $29
Average Salary: $28
2024 P/G: 4.03
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.07

A hip injury sustained in early April sidelined Luis Robert Jr. for two months of the season and he never really recovered once he returned to the field. Between the injury, the constant trade rumors, and the historically bad team surrounding him, it was a miserable year for Robert. His strikeout rate spiked to 33.2% and his power output dipped to just a .155 ISO as he limped to a career-worst 84 wRC+.

There’s certainly some cause for concern when looking at his peripherals. His hard hit rate dipped slightly but his barrel rate fell by more than five points. That tells me that his overall quality of contact was intact but something else in his batted ball mix was leading to a lower power output. Indeed, his pull rate fell nearly 13 points, down to 34%. In the two seasons where his pull rate has been higher than 40%, Robert has posted wRC+s of 155 (43.1% pull rate) and 128 (46.8%); in his other three seasons in the majors with a pull rate under 40%, his wRC+ has been 111 or lower.

And then there’s his plate discipline issues. He’s always been an aggressive swinger, but the amount of damage he was capable of doing on contact helped him offset some of those strikeout issues. Well, he cut his overall swing rate by more than five points but his contact rate continued a two-year downward trend so the result was a lot more called strikes and a nearly five point jump in strikeout rate.

Honestly, between the lackluster season in 2024, the injury issues, and the red flags in both his batted ball and plate discipline peripherals, it’s agonizingly difficult to evaluate Robert. We know that when everything clicks and he’s firing on all cylinders, he can be a phenomenal offensive producer, but the inconsistency will kill you. His 2025 projection isn’t very rosy either.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting at $29 and I’d cut all the way down to around $15. Unless he’s traded to a much better team environment this offseason, I’m avoiding him wherever I can.

–

Spencer Steer, 1B/OF
Salary: $8, $14, $18
Average Salary: $12
2024 P/G: 4.66
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.02

I really loved Spencer Steer for his multi-positional eligibility which is why I rostered him wherever I could. Now that he’s lost 2B and 3B eligibility, I’ve got to figure out how to evaluate him as an OF with a bit of flexibility at 1B. The player pool at his new position isn’t as shallow as it was at 2B or even 3B but it can be tricky to roster five reliable outfielders to fill all five of those lineup spots in Ottoneu. He’s lost a bit of value by simply going from four eligible positions down to two, but not as much as I think you’d expect.

As for his actual on-field production, 2024 was a bit of a weird year for him. Everything in his peripherals looked stable; his batted ball data was solid and his plate discipline even slightly improved. Despite all that, his wOBA fell from .355 to .316 thanks to a 58 point drop in BABIP. There’s nothing amiss with his batted ball data or his plate approach — it really seems like he was just the victim of old fashioned bad luck.

The projections don’t see his BABIP returning to his 2023 levels and nor should they; he isn’t very fast and he elevates too much of his contact to take advantage of a high line drive rate. A BABIP just below league average is a pretty good bet to make and that’s exactly where the computer pegs him.

Keep or cut?

I’m happy to keep him up to $15 or $16 I think. $18 is probably too high, especially without the positional flexibility that made him so valuable the last few years.

–

Nolan Jones, OF
Salary: $10
Average Salary: $9
2024 P/G: 3.16
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.97

Are you willing to pay for a breakout that’s now two years removed? That’s the central question surrounding Nolan Jones. His season in 2024 was marred by a recurring back injury and he had plenty of issues reproducing his outstanding season from ‘23 when he was on the field. His hard hit rate actually increased by three and half points but his power production cratered despite all the hard contact. It’s not hard to figure out what happened either; his groundball rate jumped almost 10 points and his pull rate fell by more than 10 points. That’s a seriously bad combination for a power hitter.

Assuming he’s healthy in 2025, it’s difficult to know what to expect from Jones. The projection essentially splits the difference between his breakout season and injury marred season. We can be pretty assured that his .401 BABIP from 2023 won’t happen again but his power gains all looked legitimate. If he can figure out how to start pulling and elevating his contact again, his home ballpark and fantastic contact quality give him a pretty high ceiling. There are a lot of “ifs” that need to go right for his 2025 season to be successful, making the risk pretty high if you opt to keep him.

Keep or cut?

I think I’m fine with keeping at $10 but no higher. That feels like a decent price to pay for the potential that he’s healthy and figures out all his batted ball issues. It’s also cheap enough that he becomes an easy cut if his 2023 breakout turns out to be just a flash in the pan.

–

Matt Wallner, OF
Salary: $4 (x2)
Average Salary: $6
2024 P/G: 5.36
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.90

Chad asked me to include Wallner here because I just acquired him in one of our shared leagues in exchange for Jazz Chisholm Jr. I understand the hesitation surrounding him. He’s got an extremely volatile profile full of strikeouts and tons of power. The highs will be excellent — like the 169 wRC+ he posted from July 7 through the end of the season — but the lows will likely be unplayable. To make matters more complicated, he’s likely to be platooned heavily since he’s absolutely atrocious against left-handed pitching. Thankfully, he’s on the strong side of the platoon, but a part-time player is a little more difficult to roster.

But let’s look at what he’s capable of. The 169 wRC+ over the final three months of the season was fantastic, but that came with a .410 BABIP and a 34.2% strikeout rate. What he does have going for him is outrageously good contact quality. His hard hit and barrel rates, xwOBA, and max exit velocity all sat in the top 5% in the majors. He may not make much contact, but when he does, ball go far.

Keep or cut?

I don’t want to overhype a player because the red flags in Wallner’s profile are certainly glaring, but he’s got a lot of prime Joey Gallo in him and he was an incredibly valuable player in Ottoneu for a long time. I’m happy to keep at $4 on the chance that Wallner actually does turn into the second coming of Gallo, but even if he settles in as a lesser version of Gallo, that’s still a valuable player in a format that rewards power and patience. The ceiling is a bit trickier to determine but I think I’d keep Wallner up to $6 or $7 and there’s probably a good chance he’ll go for even more at auction.

Lucas started off this week with a look at tough keep or cut decisions at 2B and SS. Now it’s my turn with four guys on the keep/cut bubble.

–

Bo Bichette, SS
Salary: $28, $34
Average Salary: $29
2024 P/G: 3.04
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.31

I’m sure I’m not the only Ottoneu player wondering what the heck to do with Bo Bichette this offseason. His 2024 season was marred by multiple calf injuries and then cut short in the middle of September by a fractured finger. Even when he was on the field, he was horrendous, posting career worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, wOBA, and xwOBA. It would be easy to chalk up his struggles to those injuries and expect a rebound season for him in 2025, but there were already some yellow flags in his profile before this year.

Bichette’s power output has been steadily declining year-over-year since peaking at a .260 ISO during his rookie year. His 2021 breakout now seems like a distant memory after settling in with a .348 wOBA across the two years afterwards. Despite all his injury issues this year, his hard hit rate stayed relatively stable even if his barrel rate collapsed. That tells me that he had no trouble making solid contact but his batted ball profile was all out of whack. Indeed, when we look at his rate of pulled elevated contact, 2024 represented a career low for him — just 19% of his elevated contact went to his pull side. His 29 home runs in 2021 notwithstanding, Bichette isn’t a traditional slugger but pulling the ball with authority is a surefire way to generate extra-base hits. Without that power, Bichette has produced a lot more empty batting average than you’d like to see, and that type of hitter just isn’t as valuable in Ottoneu than in traditional 5×5 leagues.

Steamer isn’t exactly bought in on a full bounce back either. It’s calling for a .330 wOBA which would have been a career low for him had 2024 not happened. My rankings aren’t sure what to do with him either as they currently show him in the mid-teens at shortstop in a tier with CJ Abrams and Xavier Edwards. That feels too low based on what he’s accomplished in the past but there are just so many question marks about what his product will look like in 2025.

Keep or cut?

I think $34 is too high a price with so much uncertainty surrounding him which makes him an easy cut in that league. $28 feels like it’s right on the cusp of the cut line too, but I think I’m up for gambling at that price. I could probably get him back in the draft somewhere around that price, but I’d rather hold on to him just for the roster clarity.

–

Brandon Lowe, 1B/2B
Salary: $13
Average Salary: $10
2024 P/G: 4.97
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.12

Oh look, another guy who feels tricky to evaluate due to injuries. Brandon Lowe’s injury history is much more extensive than Bichette’s, but to Lowe’s credit, he’s performed decently well when on the field. This year, he actually posted his best wRC+ since his monster season in 2021, and he only had one trip to the IL for an oblique strain towards the beginning of the season. Once he returned from that injury, he posted a scorching hot 152 wRC+ over the next three months, from May 20 through August 18. Afterwards, he fell into a bit of a slump and finished the season with an overall wRC+ of 123.

His batted ball peripherals all looked good; his hard hit and barrel rates all fell within his established norms and his power production was the best it’s been since 2021. There were some yellow flags in his plate discipline, however. His walk rate had sat at 11% over the last four years but fell to just 7.8% this year. His strikeout rate fell by about a point, which is good news, but the missing free passes are a lot more concerning. It all stems from an approach that was a lot more aggressive; his overall swing rate was a career high and was largely fueled by a five point jump in his zone swing rate. Swinging at more strikes is better than swinging at pitches outside the zone, but unless it comes with a corresponding jump in contact rate, it’s going to negatively affect his walk rate. That’s exactly what happened. He swung more often, didn’t make any more contact, and wound up walking and striking out less.

Of course, the real question for Lowe is how much he’ll end up playing in 2025. Between the injuries and the Rays careful handling of him against left-handed pitching, he’s accumulated more than 450 plate appearances in exactly one season during his career. On a per-plate-appearance basis, he’s one of the most productive second basemen out there, but rostering him means you’ll need to have a backup plan ready to go for 300 or so plate appearances.

Keep or cut?

His injuries and lack of playing time have depressed Lowe’s value these past few seasons, but he can really hit when he’s healthy. Still, $13 feels like it’s a bit too high to bet on a full season from Lowe. His average salary of $10 seems like a much better ceiling.

–

Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF
Salary: $4, $7
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/G: 5.06
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.46

An absolutely ridiculous month of July fueled Tyler Fitzgerald’s surprise breakout this year. Seriously, he hit .321/.390/.849 across 15 games that month and quickly took over the starting shortstop gig for a Giants team that was going nowhere. He continued to hit well through the end of the season and is slated to begin next season as the Giants starting second baseman after they signed Willy Adames.

He was ranked 26th on the Giants preseason prospect list as a 35+ FV prospect so his ascent and subsequent breakout were genuine surprises. Looking at all of his batted ball peripherals explains why no one really believes he’ll be able to replicate his success in 2025. He had below average exit velocity, hard hit rate, whiff rate, and xwOBA and his barrel rate was only slightly above average. His sweet spot rate was very high and his sprint speed was among the highest in baseball which could explain how he sustained such a high BABIP.

Fitzgerald’s entire approach is based on pulling the ball with authority; it’s the same kind of approach that Isaac Paredes uses with such great success. Indeed, look at how correlated Fizgerald’s pull rate is with his wOBA.

When he was crushing pitches to left field in July and August, he was a legitimate threat in San Francisco’s lineup. The issue is that this kind of approach is easily exploitable unless the batter has a good eye and can wait for the right pitch, like Paredes does. Unfortunately for Fitzgerald, he simply has too much swing-and-miss in his profile and isn’t patient enough to make his pull-happy ways work in the big leagues. My guess is that he’ll be a pretty streaky hitter in 2025, with some peaks like we saw this year, but an overall below average hitter.

Keep or cut?

Despite all the red flags laid out above, I’m not necessarily out on Fitzgerald at $4. He’ll add 2B back to his positional eligibility fairly quickly and a MI with his kind of potential for a hot streak is useful at that price. $7 feels like you’re paying for his July and August with the expectation that that hot streak is closer to his true talent and that’s just not going to be the reality.

–

Michael Massey, 2B
Salary: $3, $5
Average Salary: $4
2024 P/G: 3.98
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.51

I’m going to make this quick. Let’s play Chad’s favorite game: how many points did Michael Massey earn in games that he started? 4.64 points per game started! That’s a useful bench MI, and because he’s on the strong side of a platoon, it’s pretty easy to know when to lock him into your lineup or leave him on the bench. What’s funny is that even though the Royals protected him against left-handed pitching, Massey’s platoon split was just 4 points of wOBA.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping at $3. At $5 things get a little dicey but it sounds like the Royals might be open to using Massey in the outfield now that they’ve acquired Jonathan India. Adding that positional flexibility might make him worth the extra couple of dollars.

After Chad Young and Lucas Kelly covered their keep or cut decisions at catcher before Thanksgiving, I’m kicking off our coverage of the two corner infield positions this week.

–

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Salary: $11
Average Salary: $21
2024 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.08

Paul Goldschmidt limped through his worst season in the big leagues at age 36, setting career worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, isolated power, wOBA, xwOBA, walk rate, and strikeout rate. He’s a free agent and entering his age-37 season. He just might be cooked.

So let’s turn to the favorite tool of the fantasy baseball optimists, the rolling graph:

Here we see Goldschmidt’s season in 20-game increments. There’s a noticeable peak during the second half of the season. Indeed, he posted a .271/.319/.480 slash line and a 120 wRC+ after the All-Star break. That’s still a far cry from his peak as a slugging first baseman, but it’s definitely useful and his little hot streak in early September gave us a glimpse of what he could be in his old age.

In a fantasy baseball format so laser focused on future value, aging veterans often go undervalued in Ottoneu. I picked up Goldschmidt for $9 in September after a frustrated owner cut him to clear some cap space. His current $21 average salary is assuredly inflated by owners who held onto him through the end of the season but are planning on cutting him prior to the keeper deadline. In my preliminary rankings based on the currently available Steamer projections (and a homebrew of other data sources), I have Goldschmidt ranked around tenth at the position in a tier with Vinnie Pasquantino and Nathaniel Lowe among others. Of course I’d rather have either of those two younger hitters in my lineup, but Goldschmidt will probably come cheaper than any of the other players in the tier.

Will he be worth $11 next year? Steamer seems to think that he isn’t as cooked as his 2024 season would lead us to believe. Five points per game from a first baseman isn’t as bad as you might expect from the position. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but offensive production from first basemen has gone missing the past few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. According to the Auction Calculator, Lowe returned $11 in value in 2024 with a .337 wOBA. Goldschmidt’s wOBA during the second half of the season was .340. I’m willing to bet that a hitter as good as he is will figure out a way to continue to be productive in 2025 and hold off Father Time for at least one more year.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping at $11 and I’d consider it all the way up to $14 or $15. I wouldn’t want to head into the season with Goldschmidt as the only 1B on my roster, but I think there’s probably a bit of life left in his bat.

–

Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B/OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $16
2024 P/G: 5.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.49

I don’t actually think this decision is all that hard. I’ve got Jazz on my roster at a salary a dollar under the Ottoneu average and I think that average is going to see a lot of inflation during draft season. His helium after getting traded to the Yankees is very real and probably deserved. He increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York fueling a very nice 69 point increase in isolated power. His 132 wRC+ with the Yanks was much more in line with his short-lived breakout back in 2022 than his injury-plagued season in ‘23 and the beginning of this year.

This, then, is more of a warning to keep your expectations in check. This year represented the first time Chisholm was able to cross the 600 PA threshold in his career as he was finally healthy for the majority of the year. Beyond the injury concerns, there’s also his unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York — nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, a level reserved for the best sluggers in the game. Sure, Jazz has enjoyed elevated home run rates in the past (23.3% and 23.5% in 2022 and ‘23), but those both came in injury abbreviated seasons and home run rates usually take a while to stabilize.

I’ll go ahead and argue against myself and point out that Chisholm increased his pull rate after joining the Yankees, no doubt looking to take advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. There’s no question he was energized after the trade and made some key adjustments to improve his batted ball quality, I just think that some level-headed thinking should temper our expectations a bit. Steamer seems to agree, pegging Jazz for a wOBA exactly in line with his overall 2024 line (which includes the lackluster performance he put together in Miami before the trade).

I’ve got him ranked somewhere around eighth at 3B in a tier with Mark Vientos, Matt Chapman, and Max Muncy. The position is actually quite deep these days which means his upside really needs to stand out against all the other options out there. I’d rather roster him or Vientos than Chapman or Muncy if I’m picking one out of that tier.

Keep or cut?

I’m happily keeping at $15 and I think it probably makes sense up to around $18. There’s also the question of where the Yankees will end up playing Jazz next year after the departure of Gleyber Torres. If they move him back to 2B and he ends up regaining eligibility there, his value will skyrocket.

–

Jake Burger, 1B/3B
Salary: $16
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.96
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.03

Jake Burger had a weird season this year. He was injured in early April, really struggled upon his return, and then was pretty streaky through the end of the season. He produced some phenomenal numbers in July and August — a 162 wRC+ during those two summer months — but struggled pretty dramatically during the other four months of the season. His full season slash line ended up being just okay at .250/.301/.460 good for a 106 wRC+. That was a pretty significant step back from his breakout in 2023.

The good news is that his batted ball peripherals looked pretty stable from that breakout year. His hard hit and barrel rates both decreased slightly, but they were still among the best in the game. He incrementally improved his plate discipline and contact rate as well. It kind of seems like his struggles were mostly BABIP related and a product of an elevated ground ball rate.

As soon as he cut his ground ball rate to around 40% in the middle of the season, his power numbers exploded. That’s not surprising for someone with his kind of batted ball quality, but it’s good to see it layed out so nicely in that graph above.

Because of his inconsistent performance this year, I’ve got him ranked around 13th at the position in a tier alongside fellow 1B/3Bs Alec Bohm and Isaac Paredes. His batted ball peripherals are better than both of those other hitters, making his upside a little more tangible.

Keep or cut?

I do like Burger and I think he’ll be better than his ‘24 numbers and Steamer projection suggest, but I think $16 is too much to pay for the risk that he doesn’t figure it out. I think I’d be happier paying between $10 and $12 all things considered.

This article ranks the top 25 hitting prospects by peak projected MLB wRC+ heading into 2025, continuing an annual tradition (skip to the bottom for the ranking!). It is a counterpart to the top 25 pitching prospects piece I published last month.

Read the rest of this entry »

Continuing an annual tradition, this article ranks the top 25 starting pitching prospects by peak projected MLB ERA heading into 2025 (skip to the bottom for the ranking!)

Like the other projection systems at FanGraphs, my projections capture the usual ingredients: past performance weighted by recenecy, regression to the mean that accounts for a player’s probability of making the major leagues, major league equivalencies to adjust for minor league difficulty, aging, park effects, and league scoring environment. The peak projections make use of aging curves to translate a player’s forecast to a late-20s peak forecast. Regardless of where the “true” peak age is, there is broad consensus that most growth happens in the teen years and early-20s, however.

Read the rest of this entry »

The end of the regular season is quickly approaching and that means it’s time to get those final auctions started in your Ottoneu leagues before rosters lock for the first phase of the offseason. Any auctions you start before Friday will end before the end of the season which means it’s your last chance to add any prospects, injured players, or even a pitcher for the final weekend of the season. Here are a few recommendations of players owned in less than 70% of Ottoneu leagues in a few different categories.

Prospects

If you’ve got a favorite prospect or sleeper who has quietly had a strong season in the minor leagues, now’s your chance to add them to your roster. One thing to remember about adding any players at this point is that they’ll be subject to the same salary inflation as any other player rostered, but that inflation is halved for prospects. You’ll need to remember to build in that extra dollar into your auction bid if you’re looking to keep the prospect into next year, but it’s also just as easy to cut them at the keeper deadline if the salary ends up being too high.

Here are a few prospects who you might consider adding, though I’m certainly not a prospect expert and am usually reluctant to actually roster a large number of prospects on my Ottoneu teams.

Personally, I’m more interested in rostering prospects that are closer to the majors who could be potential contributors sooner rather than later. That means I’m usually not looking at players below Double-A, though there are certainly a few interesting names on the list above that are finishing the season in the low minors. Of the players above, I’m most interested in rostering guys like Sebastian Walcott or Bryce Eldridge; both of them had huge minor league seasons and will be quickly knocking on the door of the big leagues as soon as next year.

Injured Players with Keepable Value

Another category of players who could be nice pickups if you’re looking forward to next year are those players currently on the IL and on track to be healthy by the time spring training rolls around. For the most part, that list is populated by pitchers but there are a few injured position players who could be interesting keepers too.

One thing to note about adding these players to your roster is that if they’re on the 60-day IL, they’ll be activated right as the MLB offseason begins and they’ll end up taking up an Ottoneu roster spot as a regular player would. Some leagues have rules about the shape of your offseason rosters, specifically to enforce a team hoarding a ton of 60-day IL players at the end of the season and then entering the offseason with more than 40 players on their roster.

Picking up any of these injured pitchers is a real gamble since their recovery isn’t guaranteed. Take Luis Garica for example: he was supposed to return from his Tommy John surgery sometime this season and actually started a rehab assignment, but after a couple of setbacks, he’s now looking to regain his health over the offseason. If you really like any of these players and think they can be contributors next year, it might be worth throwing a dollar or two at them at the end of this season, but they’ll be hit by the $2 salary inflation and will most likely be available in the draft anyway.

Last Gasp Players

The final group of players I’ll highlight are for those of you in an extremely close battle in your standings heading into the final weekend of the season and you desperately need a small boost to get you over the edge.

SP/RP Brant Hurter – 42.6% roster%
I wrote up Hurter a few weeks ago and he’s turned in another couple of solid outings since then. He’s being used as a bulk pitcher behind an opener which means you’ll have to monitor his usage and ensure he’s in the right roster slot in Ottoneu, but he should line up to face the White Sox this weekend which is an extremely juicy matchup.

SP Andre Pallante – 21.94% roster%
Pallante has quietly had a really solid second half of the season — 3.60 FIP since the All-Star break — and has turned in two brilliant outings in a row against the Pirates and Guardians. He’s on track to start in San Francisco during the final weekend of the season and that’s as good an environment you can find for a streamer.

SP/RP Landen Roupp – 11.91% roster%
Opposing Pallante in that final series in San Francisco is Roupp, though he’s slated to pitch on Friday. The Giants have been giving Roupp a longer leash out of the starting rotation to finish the season and he’s responded by putting up some decent numbers across three starts.

Welcome back to the final Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner of the season. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• We’ve made it to the final week of the season. Ottoneu head-to-head leagues should be all wrapped up leaving teams in points leagues to battle it out for the top three spots in their leagues. A reminder that the innings pitched cap is a soft cap, so make sure you plan out when your starters are going next week and try to stack as many of them as you can on the day you think you’ll go over the cap.
• Be on the lookout for teams that re-slot their rotations in preparation for the playoffs or teams who try to line up their starters for a final push into the postseason. Double-check your probables and be ready to switch to a backup plan if things go sideways. I’ve marked a handful of pitchers with an (X) if their start next week lines up for Saturday or Sunday and their team has clinched a playoff berth already. Notably, Zack Wheeler is lined up to start on Saturday, but the Phillies may opt to skip that final start to keep him fresh for the first round of the playoffs.
• It’s a good week to own shares of Rangers or Tigers pitching. They both get some pretty nice matchups and Detroit’s Wild Card chase should keep all of their games relevant through the end of the season.
• On the other hand, it looks like a pretty rough week for the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles’s starting rotation is a mess with injuries taking their toll and Bobby Miller getting sent back to Triple-A this week. To make matters worse, they finish the season in Colorado. If they have the division locked up by next weekend, I could see them either skipping Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s start entirely or giving him a very short outing to keep him ready for the first round of the playoffs.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• We’ve reached Championship week in Ottoneu head-to-head leagues. Hopefully, your pitching staff is filled with starters who have favorable matchups and that you have enough pitchers to hit your games started cap.
• It’s a tough week for the Diamondbacks as they travel to Colorado and then to Milwaukee to face the hot hitting Brew Crew. Milwaukee also has a couple of tough matchups next week, hosting the Phillies and the D-Backs. Not that you were rostering any of their pitchers anyway, but it’s a bad week for the Rockies; after hosting Arizona, they head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers.
• Along with that matchup against the Rockies, the Dodgers also get a series in Miami next week and will also finish off a wraparound four-game series against the Braves on Monday. Their pitching staff is pretty chaotic right now and I definitely don’t trust Walker Buehler or Bobby Miller, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an easy start for his two starts and Jack Flaherty should continue to dominate. There’s also a possibility that Tyler Glasnow will be activated off the IL after throwing a bullpen session this week.
• The Royals are the other team with a pair of easier matchups next week and I can wholeheartedly recommend all of their starters except for Alec Marsh.

With just two and half weeks left in the regular season, we’re entering crunch time for teams still vying for a fantasy baseball championship. Hitting your innings caps in Ottoneu leagues is one of the most important ways you can maximize your roster to its fullest extent. Here are four starters who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be useful pickups for the final stretch of the season. I’ve also tried to guess at these pitches potential opponents through the end of the season, provided their teams stay on schedule and no injuries occur. With so few days left to affect your position in the standings, every start can make a difference.

The last time I ran this column, I wrote up Frankie Montas since he had made some improvements to his repertoire since joining the Brewers at the deadline. This time around, I’ll feature the other starter Milwaukee acquired midseason, Aaron Civale. He didn’t have a great start to his stint with the Brew Crew, but he’s been a lot better since August with a 3.58 ERA and a 4.13 FIP over his last seven starts. The key to his turnaround has been the reintroduction of a slider to his pitch mix. That gives him a breaking ball that sits between his cutter and his sweeper, giving batters an even harder time picking up any one of those three pitches. He’s got a couple of tough starts against the Diamondbacks in the near future, but that start in Pittsburgh the final week of the season looks really nice.

I also wrote up Matthew Boyd in this column a few weeks ago and he’s turned in three excellent starts since then. The most encouraging thing is that he’s finally getting whiffs with his breaking balls which has helped him strike out nearly 35% of the batters he’s faced during his last three starts. He’s also got two pretty decent matchups on his schedule before a bit of a risky play against the Astros to finish the season.

Brant Hurter is a little bit of an unorthodox option in Ottoneu. He’s made just one traditional start during his time in the big leagues and has acted as the bulk pitcher behind an opener in his other six appearances. In Ottoneu, you need to slot your pitchers in the role they’re used by their teams which means you need to pay attention to whether or not Detroit is using an opener for Hurter or not. As for Hurter himself, he’s been pretty effective in his bulk role. He throws from a low, three-quarters slot which imparts a ton of horizontal movement to his sinker and sweeper. He also recently developed a changeup which has given him a weapon to use against right-handed batters. If he stays on schedule, he’s got two risky matchups against the Orioles and Royals before an easier outing against the Rays.

Here’s another stretch of a recommendation. Jakob Junis was picked up by the Reds in the Frankie Montas trade as a throw in — Joey Wiemer was the real target in that deal — and has mostly pitched in short stints out of the bullpen this year. Injuries in Cincinnati’s starting rotation have forced them to use him in longer stints recently. He completed five innings in his last start against the Mets and has only allowed a single run in his previous three outings. He’s enjoyed some success in the past thanks to his elite slider, but a litany of injuries have sapped him of much of his effectiveness. Two of his final outings will come away from Great American Ballpark, which should be a great benefit to him. You can probably treat him as a dart throw, but if you’re really desperate for innings, he’s an option that won’t cost much.