Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

It’s a pretty rough slate of matchups this weekend. It doesn’t help that the Giants and Padres are playing in Mexico City which is at a higher altitude than Denver. The ball should be flying in that short two-game series.

Teams with easier schedules include the A’s, Cubs, Orioles, Twins, Red Sox, Reds, and Royals.

Teams with tougher schedules include the aforementioned Giants and Padres and also the Angels, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Rockies, White Sox. and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Despite all those poor matchups, there are a handful of starter’s I’m comfortable recommending. All three of the A’s starters scheduled to take the mound during their home series against the Reds fall below our 50% owned threshold. I’m recommending Kyle Muller again, but if you want to roll the dice with Ken Waldichuk or possibly even Drew Rucinski 루친스키, you could drip them into your lineups.

Nick Pivetta bounced back after a rough start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Last weekend, he held the Brewers to three runs in 5.2 innings, striking out seven and walking just one. He draws the Guardians at home this weekend and that should be a pretty easy matchup for him since Cleveland’s offense hasn’t really started clicking yet.

Dean Kremer followed up his gem of a start against the Nationals with a decent start against the Red Sox yesterday. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings, striking out five. He did allow a pair of home runs which has been a huge issue for him. The Tigers simply aren’t hitting for power right now and the Orioles will be playing in cavernous Comerica Park. This is a matchup that should go the way his one against the Nationals did.

After two rough starts to open the season, Vince Velasquez has actually been pitching pretty well for the red-hot Pirates. He shut out the Cardinals and Reds and escaped Coors Field with just three runs allowed. Across his last three starts, he’s earned 6.7 points per inning pitched. He’s scheduled to start against the Nationals on Saturday.

The final recommendation is a little up in the air. The Cubs will need to call up a starter to take Jameson Taillon’s spot in the rotation this weekend but it’s a little unclear who it’ll be. Caleb Kilian or Adrian Sampson 샘슨 make the most sense with the former being listed on the Roster Resource Probables Grid. Whoever it ends up being, they’ll have a nice matchup against the Marlins in Miami.

Recap: April 21–23

Two clear wins from the two Orioles starters make this a pretty good week. Hunter Gaddis ended up relegated to long relief and then to the minors and Bailey Falter’s start was pushed back to today.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with easier schedules include the Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mets, Royals, and Yankees.

Teams with tougher schedules include the A’s, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, Tigers, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Brad Keller sits just below our 50% ownership cutoff and he’s been a common recommendation in these columns this year. He’s continued to struggle with his command early this season but he’s also only given up a single home run and just 14 hits in 21 innings. He gets a nice matchup against the Diamondbacks in their dinger suppressing ballpark next week.

Another common recommendation, Kyle Gibson lines up to face the Tigers two starts in a row, once this weekend and again on Thursday. His last start against the White Sox didn’t go super well — four runs on seven hits and two walks with just a single strikeout in 5.1 innings — but the other three starts he’s made this season have been solid. His two-step against Detroit is just too good to pass up.

Colin Rea is also lined up to face the Tigers next week. He’s been a serviceable starter for the Brewers after Brandon Woodruff went down with his shoulder injury. He had a pretty good season in Japan last year and has looked decent in his return to the States. He held the Padres to a single run across 5.2 innings in his first start but was knocked around by the Mariners in his second.

José Suarez and Griffin Canning are scheduled to face the A’s at home next week. That’s a pretty juicy matchup, but beware the high home run park factor of Angel Stadium. Suarez hasn’t been good this year, with a walk rate that matches his strikeout rate. A date against Oakland seems like a good candidate for a get-right start. Canning is a bit more interesting. Injuries derailed a very promising start to his career over the last few years. He’s healthy and has made a couple of solid starts so far this year.

Jhony Brito bounced back from his ugly start against the Twins by holding the Angels to just a single run across 4.1 innings on Wednesday. He’s scheduled to face Minnesota again next week and will be looking to improve on his seven-run disaster the last time he faced them.

Recap: April 17–20

A really good week with four clear wins and no obvious losses. Keller’s start against the Rangers was dragged down by the five walks he allowed and Michael Wacha just hasn’t been able to replicate the magic he showed in his second start of the season against the Braves.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with an easier weekend schedule include the Marlins, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies Rangers, Reds, and Twins. The Diamondbacks and Giants are both playing at home in their cavernous ballparks but they’re facing the Padres and Mets, respectively. On paper, it’s a decent matchup for Arizona and San Francisco because their opponents are underperforming a bit, but be weary.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

I’ve only got a handful of recommendations this weekend. The Orioles are hosting the Tigers who currently have the worst offense in baseball by a wide margin. That means it’s a great opportunity to drip Tyler Wells and Kyle Gibson into your rosters. The former has had a decent start to the year, allowing just a single walk in three starts with an acceptable amount of strikeouts and hits allowed. Gibson has been a successful recommendation twice already this season and this matchup is his best yet.

The Guardians will host the hapless Marlins offense this weekend, giving you another opportunity to drip Zach Plesac and Hunter Gaddis into your rosters. Plesac has been fine after his implosion in his first start of the year against the A’s. The strikeouts aren’t there but he isn’t walking anyone either. Gaddis has only allowed a single home run this season, relying on weak contact in the air to get many of his outs. His xFIP is an unsightly 5.74, however, so start him at your own risk.

The Rockies will travel to Philadelphia this weekend and Bailey Falter might be lined up for a start on Saturday or Sunday. The Phillies have a double-header today and don’t have an off day this week so their rotation might need to be reconfigured over the weekend. Keep an eye on whether or not Falter is listed as a probable for that series against Colorado.

Recap: April 14–16

A couple of recommendations ended up missing starts last weekend — Dylan Dodd was sent back to Triple-A when Kyle Wright was activated from the IL and Matthew Boyd had his start delayed by rain two days in a row. I think we can call Anthony DeSclafani and Michael Grove’s starts wins with Jhony Brito and Nick Martinez’s clear losses. Seth Lugo also struggled through his start, but ended up earning enough points to call it a wash.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Its feast or famine this week. Easy schedules include the A’s, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Royals, and Tigers.

A bunch of squads have a tough matchup to start the week including the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Pirates, Phillies, Reds, Twins, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

There aren’t a ton of great matchups to recommend this week with a bunch of riskier plays if you’re desperate for innings or need to hit your games started cap. Michael Wacha has been a little overlooked in these columns in favor of his rotation-mates Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo, but Wacha’s actually been pretty decent in his two starts this year. Impressively, he held the Braves scoreless over six innings in his last outing with ten strikeouts. He’s lined up to start against the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Thursday.

Brad Keller continues to impress with his revamped breaking balls; Stuff+ loves both his slider (137 Stuff+) and curveball (114 Stuff+). The only knock against him has been his lack of control of those two pitches early on. Everyone has scrambled to pick up his teammate Kris Bubic, but Keller deserves some attention too. He just held the Rangers to a single run in 6.2 innings while striking out seven on Wednesday and he’ll get to face them again at home on Tuesday.

Matt Strahm has yet to allow a run in three appearances and two starts this year and as long as he’s getting a chance to contribute in the rotation, he’s worth considering dripping into your rotation. I didn’t recommend him for his start against the Reds in the bandbox in Cincinnati but he gets a really nice matchup against the Rockies at home on Thursday.

Ken Waldichuk has had a really rough start to the season, allowing 17 runs in 15 innings. To be fair, he ran into the Angels and the Rays for his first two starts and looked a bit better against the Orioles in his last outing. His ownership rate has dropped below 50% in Ottoneu as frustrated players have cut him loose. Still, he was ranked 86th on the 2023 Top Prospects list and looked promising during his cup of coffee last year. If you want to take a chance on him, he has a nice matchup against the Cubs at home on the docket.

There are a couple of Guardians starters worth mentioning for their matchup against the Tigers in Detroit. Hunter Gaddis looked great against the A’s a week ago but got crushed by the Yankees in his last start. Peyton Battenfield made his major league debut this week against those same Bronx Bombers and held them to just two runs in 4.2 innings. He was ranked 40th on Cleveland’s prospect list and fits their archetype of pitchers who have a deep repertoire with a strong breaking ball, but struggle with their fastball. Both would be pretty significant risks, but the matchup and venue are pretty favorable.

Recap: April 10–13

Three wins and two losses last week and a bunch of meh. Strahm continues to be a solid recommendation and Bryce Elder impressed again. The Chris Flexen recommendation was an ugly affair but he had been such a consistent, if unexciting, starter last year I thought it would work out against the Cubs. It didn’t. Despite struggling against the A’s in his start on Wednesday, I’m recommending another Kremer start as you can see above. Maybe he’ll be able to handle the Nationals this time around.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

A bunch of teams have easier schedules this weekend including the Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Tigers.

Difficult schedules include the Angles, Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Twins, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Despite all the teams with bad matchups, there’s a full slate of recommendations this weekend. The two young starters from the Braves, Dylan Dodd and Bryce Elder, are scheduled to make starts in Kansas City against the Royals. The former had a rough outing against the Padres in his last start, allowing seven runs in 4.1 innings. The Royals should prove to be a much easier opponent. Elder just held the Reds scoreless over 6.1 innings in his start on Monday and hasn’t allowed a run in either of his starts this year.

The two Padres pitchers are creeping up in ownership since the start of the season and both are light recommendations against the Brewers. It’s not an obvious matchup to exploit since Milwaukee has actually been hitting pretty well to start the season, but it’s at home and both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have proven they can be counted on this season. The latter has been particularly impressive in his return to the rotation with another strong start coming against the Braves on Sunday.

Anthony DeSclafani turned in another solid start in his last turn through the rotation and he gets a really easy matchup against the Tigers in their huge ballpark. On the other side of that matchup, Matthew Boyd could be a bit more of a risky pick. He handled the Astros and Red Sox okay, allowing two runs in each of those starts, but he hasn’t been able to pitch out of the fifth inning yet. He’s allowed as many walks as he has strikeouts so the efficiency is still lacking.

Jhony Brito is lined up to make his third start of his career after capably handling the Orioles last weekend. He gets a tougher opponent in the Twins so this will be a pretty tough test for him. I’m recommending him anyway. Michael Grove did not fare well in his second start after impressing in his season debut; he allowed nine runs to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’ll get the Cubs at home in his next start and that’s a bit of a risk given the high home run park factor of Dodger Stadium. I’d understand if you wanted to wait and see how he performs this weekend before picking him up.

Recap: April 7–9

A much better weekend after those terrible results during the first week in April. I count two clear wins and no losses. The surprise was Brad Keller’s performance against the Giants. The strikeouts weren’t there, but he held San Francisco to just three hits in 5.2 innings of work. That’ll play. Nick Pivetta’s start got pushed back to Monday, but he performed well against the Rays, shutting them out over five innings with six strikeouts and just two walks.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Obvious favorable schedules include the Astros, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers, and Orioles. There are also a handful of teams who are either playing tough opponents in pitcher friendly ballparks or against weaker teams in smaller venues; the A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Red Sox, and White Sox fall into this camp.

Bad matchups include the Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, and Tigers.

Highlighted matchups:

The series between the Orioles and A’s features three different recommendations. Kyle Gibson has thrown two decent starts so far this year with an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings. He introduced a sweeper late last year and it’s been featured pretty heavily in his pitch mix so far this season. Dean Kremer is a bit more of a risk, even with the weak opponent. He’s had spurts of success, particularly last year, and his first two opponents this season were pretty tough — the Red Sox and Yankees — but he’s also introduced a sweeper into his repertoire.

For Oakland, JP Sears is a repeat recommendation and Kyle Muller would have been but his ownership rate crossed over the 50% threshold this week. Sears struggled a bit in his first start against the Guardians, throwing 4.2 innings with eight hits allowed, one walk, and five strikeouts. Adam Oller is also lined up to start during this series and you’d have to take a pretty big leap of faith to consider starting him.

José Suarez and Matt Strahm fall into that camp of matchups in a dangerous ballpark against a weak team. The former ran into some trouble against the Mariners in his first start of the season but the Nationals pose a much weaker threat. Strahm threw four scoreless innings against the Yankees during his spot start on Tuesday. The lack of bulk is a concern as is the hard contact that went unrewarded in New York.

Bryce Elder was phenomenal in his spot start for the Braves on Wednesday, holding the Cardinals scoreless over six innings with six strikeouts. Atlanta’s rotation is a bit of a mess with two starters on the IL and Elder, Jared Shuster, and Dylan Dodd battling over who will get to stick in the big leagues once everyone gets healthy. Dodd and Elder certainly look more viable as major league starters and the latter has the benefit of a nice matchup early next week.

Recap: April 3–6

After a good start during the first weekend of the season, my recommendations last week were pretty brutal. I count two wins — Muller and Grove — with seven ugly losses including a ghastly -24.1 points from Plesac against the A’s and -22.1 points from Crawford against the Pirates. Ouch. I’m not not sure there are any solid lessons to be taken away from this group of really bad performances. I liked the matchups on paper, but sometimes pitchers throw stinkers against weak teams and you just have to roll with the punches.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Let’s get into it.

Upcoming Schedule:

Favorable schedules include the Astros, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Rays, Red Sox, Royals, and White Sox. You may be able to get away with playing starters from the A’s, Pirates, and Yankees since they’re playing tougher opponents in safer environments.

Lots more teams to avoid this weekend, including the Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds, Rockies, and Twins.

Highlighted matchups:

It’s a pretty light slate of recommendations this weekend with so many teams playing tough matchups or in poor environments. Nick Pivetta shows up for the second week in a row. Monitor his first start of the season against the Pirates today to make sure the increased velocity on his fastball carries over from spring training.

There are two starters who could be nice pickups in that Giants-Royals series, one for each team. Anthony DeSclafani started on Monday and held the White Sox scoreless over six innings while striking out four. He was an effective starter back in 2021 but injuries limited him to just five starts last year. If he’s fully healthy, he could be a sneaky addition with an excellent home ballpark. Brad Keller made his first start of the season on Sunday against the Twins and looked okay. He only lasted 4.2 innings, walked four, and struck out six. He introduced two new breaking balls to his repertoire this spring, though the command issues could be an issue as he figures out how to locate them properly.

Mike Clevinger handled the Astros capably on Sunday, throwing five shutout innings with eight strikeouts. He limited his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider and the latter generated a 44% whiff rate. That breaking ball lost a ton of effectiveness last year and it’s a big reason why he struggled so much in San Diego. He’s got a nice matchup against the Pirates in Pittsburgh to continue building off that early success.

Bailey Falter is a bit more of a risk since Citizen’s Bank Park is a very hitter friendly venue. The Reds offense isn’t good but the combination of opponent and ballpark still isn’t ideal. Falter threw 5.1 innings in his first start of the year, holding the Rangers to two runs on seven hits, striking out three.

Recap: March 30–April 2

As a way to keep myself accountable and just because I’m curious, I’ll be showing the results of my recommendations throughout the season.

Civale, Muller, Lugo, and Brito were pretty clear wins while Turnbull, Wacha, and Gonzales big losses. Looking back, it was probably too early to recommend Turnbull before he had even made a regular season start after his injury. Since these recommendations ran a week ago, Civale has cleared the 50% owned mark which is probably warranted. His stuff is pretty good and he was the recipient of some pretty bad luck last year. It was surprising to see seven strong innings from Lugo in his return to the rotation after spending so much of his career in the bullpen. If he continues to provide that kind of bulk with solid ratios, he needs to be owned in a lot more leagues.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to what I hope will become a regular bi-weekly column this season. Streaming starting pitchers is a popular and effective strategy in fantasy baseball but the benefits are largely lost in a dynasty format like Ottoneu. The 48-hour in-season auctions make streaming in this format an exercise in foresight and planning while the deep rosters make finding starting pitching on the waiver wire tougher than in other, shallower formats. But finding ways to fill your innings pitched or games started cap is a real concern for many teams, especially considering the rate of attrition for pitchers in the modern era. In Ottoneu, you can’t really stream, but you can drip.

Read the rest of this entry »

Draft season is almost over and the regular season is just over the horizon. I’m sure there are a few leagues drafting at the last possible moment before Opening Day on Thursday, but I figured we could do a little auction analysis to see which players have gained or lost value during the preseason.

First, I pulled some data on players auctioned since February 1 in all FG points leagues. Then I pulled some data from the Average Salaries page to use as a baseline. Obviously, the average salary listed on that page will include players auctioned during this draft season, so it’s not a perfect comparison, but it’ll do. I’ve also compared the 2023 auction data against the listed “Last 10” value from the Average Salaries page to give a sense of how auction values have changed recently. The tables below will show the top 10 value gainers and losers for both of those measures.

Value up

This list is mostly populated with youngsters who were likely kept at very reasonable values but auctioned closer to their true talent level. For the most part, the average values from this draft season fall pretty close to where I had ranked them earlier this offseason; The outliers are Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr. Rodríguez’s helium makes sense after a phenomenal rookie campaign and an offseason where he’s been positioned as the face of the future of baseball. I picked him up in a first-year league for $45 this year, which now seems like a bargain considering where his average value lies.

Witt’s rise in value is a little tougher to parse. He didn’t have as sterling a rookie year as Rodríguez, but the talent is undeniable. I ranked him in the $15-$19 tier but he’s being auctioned closer in value to Marcus Semien, Wander Franco, and Xander Bogaerts. The projections see him improving over his 99 wRC+ he posted in 2022, but not to the level of those other three. His positional versatility probably helps boost his value a tiny bit, but I’m not sure I’d be comfortable paying more than $20 for him right now.

More recently, we’ve seen some spring standouts gain value with WBC MVP and all-world superstar Shohei Ohtani seeing the biggest leap. And with good reason too. With the change in how Ottoneu handles two-way players this season, managers will be able to earn both hitting and pitching points on days where the player is accumulating both. Ohtani was already incredibly valuable in this format and this adjustment will only help managers squeeze every single point out of his two-way eligibility.

Another spring standout who has seen a recent rise in value is Matt Olson. He launched his eighth spring training home run on Monday and looks poised to have a monster season. He struggled a bit during his first year in Atlanta, suffering through a 35 point drop in wOBA fueled by deteriorating plate discipline metrics. If he’s able to get his strikeout and walk rates back in line with where they were during his 2021 breakout while also benefiting from the shift ban, he should be able to blow past his current value.

Kwan is another interesting riser. I wrote about the risks associated with him in my outfield rankings article, but the TL;DR version is that he’s overly reliant on good outcomes on all of his batted balls to truly be an elite points league accumulator. Just look at what happened during his first two months in the league where he posted a .259 BABIP and a 105 wRC+. An $18 salary puts him around guys like Cedric Mullins, Nick Castellanos, and Taylor Ward, all of whom I view as having a higher ceiling due to their potential power output.

Value down

The list of players whose values have fallen is unsurprisingly headlined by a bunch of injured players or players with significant injury risk. The surprise here is Xander Bogaerts. I wrote about why I like him more than the market in my shortstop rankings article and my thoughts haven’t changed. He’s been extremely consistent over the last five years and has a fantastic lineup surrounding him in his new home in San Diego. I get that there’s a bit of concern with both his barrel and hard hit rates falling last year, but I’m betting he’ll be just fine. Bogaerts was auctioned for just $17 in the FanGraphs Staff League and I’m confident that’s going to look like a steal by the end of this season.

Again, the list of recent value losers is populated with guys who have picked up spring injuries. Altuve, Hoskins, Iglesias, Polanco, Díaz, and Severino are all on track to start the season on the Injured List and two of those guys were lost for the season. The drops for Kershaw and Darvish appear to be connected to age-related risk; the former looks healthy and ready for another strong season and the latter was slow to ramp up due to the WBC, but looks poised to join the Padres rotation as the fourth or fifth starter.

I can’t really figure out the drop for Starling Marte. He’s enjoyed a solid spring, with a .344/.361/.563 slash line in 36 plate appearances. Over the last two years, he’s posted a 135 wRC+ with solid peripherals. He did post his highest strikeout rate since 2016 last year and his barrel rate didn’t exactly support his .176 ISO, so I suppose there’s a bit of concern there. Still, his recent average salary feels like a pretty decent bargain on an excellent veteran contributor.