Welcome back to the Ottoneu Drip, a twice-monthly column dedicated to identifying under-rostered pitchers in Ottoneu leagues who might be worth a second look. I went back through the archives from last year and correctly identified Spencer Arrighetti, Mitchell Parker, Tobias Myers, Kris Bubic, Hunter Gaddis, Porter Hodge, and Luke Weaver as clear wins among a host of other short-term value plays. Let’s not get hung up on some of the misses…

Anyway, since we’ve only got a weekend’s worth of games in the bag, I decided I’d look at some of the standout starts from Opening Weekend to see if any of these under-rostered pitchers are worth rostering to start the season. I’ll give some pretty brief analysis since we’re only talking about a single start, but some of these starters might show up again in this column later on this season — if they’re not rostered at a higher rate before then.

Cade Povich – vBOS, 4.1 IP, 29.1 points
Povich looked pretty good against the potent Red Sox offense, though he couldn’t complete the fifth frame after throwing 94 pitches to get 13 outs. The good news is that eight of those outs were strikeouts and he earned five whiffs on 10 swings against his curveball. Povich had a solid spring training and brought his swing-and-miss stuff with him into his first start of the season. He’ll need to work on his pitch efficiency if he wants to keep his spot in the rotation once some of the rest of Baltimore’s starters get healthy.

Jordan Hicks – @HOU, 6 IP, 47.8 points
Hicks was brilliant against the Astros on Monday, allowing just a single hit and two walks to go along with six strikeouts. The most encouraging thing was the 98 mph average on his sinker on the night. That’s three and a half ticks higher than where that pitch was sitting last year and that kind of velocity jump is a really good sign for Hicks’s health. His sweeper was also sitting more than two mph higher and it returned a 50% whiff rate on the night. The big concern with Hicks’s transition to the rotation last year was his ability to maintain his high velocity he was known for as a reliever. If he’s sitting 98 mph across six innings without a drop off towards the end of his outing, that’s very intriguing.

Mitchell Parker – vPHI, 6.1 IP, 32.7 points
Parker worked around a very active Phillies lineup on Sunday and managed to hold them scoreless over 6.1 innings. He had spurts of usefulness last year and this start just reminds us that his solid command and deep repertoire can be effective if it’s all working together for him. He could be worth a flyer if you’re willing to put up with some of the rough starts while avoiding some of the tougher matchups.

Zack Littell – vCOL, 6 IP, 48.0 points
Chad already covered Littell in his Hot Right Now post yesterday but I’ll just add that Littell, like Parker, was valuable in spurts last year with the same kind of kitchen sink approach. It’s not an exciting profile, but their kind of unexciting bulk innings can be useful in Ottoneu where reaching the innings threshold is probably the easiest way to maximize your total points in the format.

JP Sears – @SEA, 6.2 IP, 38.0 points
Sears has always had a decent strikeout-to-walk ratio which has made him an intriguing undervalued player in Ottoneu. Of course, he’s also prone to allow a ridiculous amount of home runs which has always crashed his value in the format. He did allow a single homer in his start in Seattle but he also kept 50% of his batted balls on the ground which is a new wrinkle. If he suddenly figured out how to increase his groundball rate even slightly from his career norms, he might also be able to cut down on the number of batted balls flying over the fence. Something worth monitoring.

Martín Pérez – vMIN, 6 IP, 50.4 points
Pérez no-hit the Twins for six innings in his debut with the White Sox but the most surprising stat from that outing were the nine strikeouts he racked up. He’s never really had swing-and-miss stuff, but he got seven whiffs on 11 swings with his changeup on Monday. He’s not worth rostering yet — and probably won’t be — but keep an eye on his strikeout rate and his home run rate. He’s not that far removed from a 4.93 P/IP season in 2022.

Kyle Freeland – @TBR, 6 IP, 53.2 points
Germán Márquez – @PHI, 6 IP, 42.0 points
It’s always hard to roster Rockies pitchers, especially in Ottoneu where home runs really trash a pitcher’s value. Freeland cruised through six innings against the Rays on Opening Day, striking out seven on just 67 pitches. He was super aggressive in the zone and Tampa obliged by swinging at nearly everything and had only two hits and a bunch of whiffs to show for it. Márquez’s start against the Phillies was a little more interesting. He’s essentially the only Colorado pitcher who has been worth rostering over the last few seasons, though he missed a ton of time the last two years thanks to Tommy John surgery. He was fantastic in Philadelphia on Monday; his velocity was up and he earned 10 whiffs against the potent Phillies lineup. I wouldn’t rush to go out and add Márquez, but he could be an interesting add if he can keep this up and there’s always the possibility Colorado trades him midseason.

The calendar has flipped to March and that means regular season baseball is just around the corner. There have been just over 100 completed auction drafts in the Ottoneu universe thus far with the vast majority of leagues drafting over the next few weeks ahead of the early March 18 start date to the regular season. These early drafts present us with a bunch of market data that can help us identify players being overvalued or undervalued based on their rankings and projections. I should note that this data is inclusive of both first-year leagues and existing leagues so price inflation will have some effect on the draft values we see in the data.

Below, you’ll find two tables listing players who have been drafted more than 25 times whose real world auction values are either well below or well above the value Chad or I ranked them at earlier this offseason. First, let’s tackle draft steals.

Just as players were beginning to report to spring training, the Pirates announced that one of their new acquisitions, Spencer Horwitz, had undergone wrist surgery to repair an offseason injury. He’ll likely miss the first few weeks of the season but should be back to full health by the end of April. It’s possible that injury is depressing the market for Horwitz but a $3 average draft cost indicates the market was pretty low on his services to begin with — missing roughly a month of the season shouldn’t have cratered his value this low. Should he return from this wrist injury healthy, the projections see him producing a .344 wOBA as the Pirates everyday first baseman — and his 2B eligibility in Ottoneu boosts his value even further. If I was building my rankings today, I’d probably have him down a tier alongside Chad, but you’re still getting him as a steal if you’re drafting him for $3 today.

I was surprised to see Corey Seager on this list of undervalued players, granted I had him ranked a tier higher than Chad and his market data shows that he’s being valued on par with where Chad ranked him. Seager is either the second or third ranked shortstop, though his lengthy injury history does present some risk. I would be completely happy to roster Seager under $50 and would be ecstatic if I could get him under $40.

First base as a position is in a really weird spot right now. After the first six or seven options, there’s a pretty significant drop off in production and the position sort of plateaus with a bunch of flawed players that seem pretty interchangeable. Both Nathaniel Lowe and Ryan Mountcastle sit in this morass of mediocre first basement which makes it really easy to deflate their draft value — if you miss out on one, there’s another similar option ready to roster.

Across his 11-year career, Jorge Soler finally finds himself in a favorable home ballpark for his brand of right-handed power. Angels Stadium has the best home run park factor among the five cities he’s called home, though I suppose Kauffman Stadium boosts overall offensive output slightly more than the ballpark in Anaheim. Blasting a ton of home runs is a surefire way to rack up a ton of points in Ottoneu leagues and Soler should be among the best in the AL at that one skill. I suppose some of the hesitation stems from his inconsistent track record, but I like his new environment and think he’s flying under the radar a bit.

David Festa has been one of my targets to add towards the end of the draft to round out my starting rotation. An ugly 4.90 ERA hid the fact that he posted a very good 3.76 FIP across his first 13 starts in the big leagues last year and all the projection systems think he should come close to replicating those peripherals again this year. He’s added a sinker to his pitch mix this spring and has continued to flash the swing-and-miss stuff that earned him the callup last season. The only question is whether or not he’ll have a rotation spot locked up out of spring training, but even if he doesn’t, his talent will have him pitching in the big leagues sooner rather than later.

Here’s what I wrote about Trea Turner in my middle infield ranks article:

“Turner is a tricky one to peg. He had the hiccup in 2023 in his first season in Philadelphia and then rebounded a bit in ‘24 thanks to a 20 point increase in his BABIP. Worryingly, his power output fell quite a bit and his contact quality wasn’t as sterling as it’s been in the past. The track record speaks for itself, but he just hasn’t been the same player as before since joining the Phillies.”

I’m still pretty hesitant to roster him for any kind of premium, but it’s clear that other Ottoneu players just don’t hold that same view. His average draft value is just four dollars cheaper than Seager but I’d much rather have the latter if I’m paying anywhere near $40 for a shortstop.

Reader, I will admit that I paid $31 for Roki Sasaki in the FanGraphs Staff League draft in early February, knowing full well that it was probably an overpay. Chalk this one up to the shiny new toy effect and accept the fact that you’ll have to really open up the wallet to roster Sasaki during his first season in the big leagues.

I’ve already written up why I’m down on Aaron Nola, but I’ll just emphasize that his reputation as a front-line ace and the actual pts/IP production he provides in Ottoneu do not align very well. For Burnes, I’m concerned that his struggles for half the season last year weren’t just a blip but a portent for his eventual decline. I’m sure I’ll regret fading him, but his projections in Arizona aren’t that rosy and he’s had two straight seasons where his pts/IP sat right around five. In Ottoneu, you’d really like to see your staff ace sit about half a point higher per IP if you’re investing over $30 to roster them.

I will admit that I probably ranked Spencer Arrighetti lower than I should have. I knew that his second half surge was phenomenal, but I didn’t do enough research into why it was so good. He’s got a pair of excellent breaking balls in his curveball and sweeper to pair with a good fastball. Once he got his legs under him and made the necessary adjustments to the big leagues, he cruised through his final 14 starts. Placing him in that $6-$9 tier was a good call from Chad and I’d probably have him there too if I was redoing my rankings today.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Ranking starting pitching is an absolutely massive beast to tackle (seriously, I have no idea how Nick Pollack does it). And it feels like our understanding of what makes a good pitcher is constantly evolving as we continue to break new ground with all the publicly available data. That also means there are more breakouts to chase than ever before as so many pitchers are one or two tweaks away from really unlocking their pitch arsenal. That makes ranking pitchers particularly tricky because projection systems often have a very hard time picking up on those arsenal or stuff changes without a ton of data to back them up.

If you want to pay up for established, high-end options, there are plenty to choose from, just remember that pitchers break down more often than any other position. That means investing a large portion of your budget into your pitching staff will always carry some amount of risk. Luckily, if you choose to pass on the best pitchers on the market, there’s a large middle tier that you can build a perfectly productive pitching staff with. There’s probably 40-50 guys in this group that have good projections but won’t break the bank to roster. Once you’re past those top 60-70 pitchers, you’re getting into the lower tiers where all sorts of warts and question marks abound. Here, you’re simply searching for potential breakouts, bounce backs, or bulk innings.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss a few outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

The biggest difference in my rankings is where I put Wheeler. He’s undoubtedly been the most valuable pitcher in Ottoneu over the last four years purely on the massive amount of points he’s generated, even if his per inning rate hasn’t been the highest. That longevity is incredibly valuable, though he’s getting up there in age presenting some risk to his profile. In addition, the projections for him in 2025 just aren’t that rosy, which was enough for me to drop him a tier.

I’ve got lower evaluations on Yamamoto, Valdez, Gibert, Burnes, and Kirby. Yamamoto still has workload concerns after he wasn’t able make through his first season in the States unscathed. Valdez doesn’t have a high enough ceiling for me to put him in a higher tier. I personally love Gilbert and Kirby, but the former has had issues maintaining his strikeout rate and the latter gives up a few too many home runs, which hampers him in this format. Burnes righted the ship after scuffling for a lot of the season last year, but I’m concerned that it wasn’t just a blimp but a portent for his eventual decline.

I’m higher on Gray and Steele because I believe in the former’s strikeout rate improvements and the latter has provided consistent home run suppression for three seasons now.

Chad thought he’d be the low man on Sasaki but here I am putting him a tier lower. I get the hype, but there are enough concerns about his fastball shape, his injury history, and the transition from Japan to the US that I’m pumping the brakes just a little bit. I’m also lower on Gallen, Lopez, and Imanaga and that’s mostly due to some lower projections capping their ceilings a bit.

I like Greene, Woo, Miller, Houck, and Sanchez a good deal more than Chad and in all of their cases, I’m a believer in the breakouts they all enjoyed in 2024 and think they’ve got even more room to grow.

We’re getting to the end of the middle tier with these two tiers and the end of the truly useful pitchers you can count on for consistent production.

I’m lower on Nola (read why), Williams, and Rodon but there are a ton of guys here that I’m higher on and it’s either because I believe in a skill change they showed last year or their projections paint a promising picture for 2025 or that they’ve put an injury behind them and I’m banking on a return to form.

For these lower tier guys, it’s nearly impossible to find any agreement between me and Chad and that can mostly be chalked up to differences in risk management and our preferences in how we fill out the back end of our rosters. Every one of these guys has a wart or two (or three or four), and you can nitpick about which wart is more important than another, but if you’re relying on any of these guys for significant innings in 2025, something has either gone very well for the individual pitcher or very poorly for the rest of your fantasy team.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Thanks to the additions of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr., third base is feeling a little deeper this year than it has in the recent past.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

I understand Chad’s concerns about Devers’ shoulder, but his track record of production speaks for itself and justifies the premium you’ll pay over Riley. Devers managed to produce a 147 wRC+ through August with his balky shoulder and only really broke down in September. It’s possible the shoulder will continue to be an issue this year, but it’s just as likely that an offseason of rest might have allowed the joint to heal. I’m fine taking that risk based on his history.

I like Chisholm, but not as much as Chad does, and I think there’s some Yankees-fueled helium that’s inflating his perceived value. Yes, he increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York but his barrel rate dropped by more than three points. Despite hitting fewer barrelled batted balls, nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, an unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York.

Lewis couldn’t replicate the scorching hot breakout he enjoyed in 2023 last year. Some of those struggles were out of his control — his BABIP fell by 100 points — but he also lost a bit of contact quality on his batted balls and his 21.1% home run rate was probably always a little unstable. I expect better things from him in 2025, but there’s always the looming injury concerns and I’m a bit worried about how his body is going to hold up if the Twins actually decide to move him to second base like they’ve talked about this offseason.

I originally had Suárez and Arenado a tier higher but they both have pretty big question marks surrounding them. For the former, it’s his streaky performance that gives me pause. Yes, Suárez was one of the best hitters in baseball during the second half of the season last year, but his first half was atrocious and it’s hard to tell which version of him you’re going to get. For Arenado, the questions about where he’ll eventually end up after the Cardinals inevitably trade him this offseason give me some pause.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Despite some of the big names populating the top of this position group, offensive production from first basemen has hit a nadir over the last few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. If you miss out on one of the top options at the position, you’re probably stuck with a guy you might need to platoon or with some other flaw. It also means that Util-only players like Ohtani, Ozuna, or Pederson can reasonably take the place of a second 1B on your roster if you don’t mind the inflexibility they bring to your lineup.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Not much more to say about these four guys beyond the obvious. If you want premium production from 1B, you’re going to have to pay up.

Here’s the cliff. There’s a pretty dramatic step down in production from Olson to Alonso but I think I’m more willing to pay for one of these mid-tier 1Bs than Chad is. That’s why I’ve got Walker, Casas, and Naylor all a tier higher than he does.

Ozuna is a really tough one to rank. His positional limitations will obviously hamper your lineup, but his outstanding production is undeniable. Like Chad, I prefer to have my Util open to flex in whomever I want, but there are maybe 18-20 guys who are projected to post a higher P/G than Ozuna is.

I’ve got some real concerns about Díaz’s ability to continue to produce at a high level outside of Tropicana Field. He gets so much more production out of his high groundball rate than you’d expect thanks to the turf inside the Rays’ ruined ballpark, but I’m worried that he won’t enjoy the same success now that the team will have to play in an outdoor Single-A ballpark this year.

Given a full-time role with the Cubs last year, Busch had a breakout season where he posted the 10th best wOBA among first basemen with at least 400 PAs. Losing 2B and 3B eligibility definitely hurts his overall value, but he’s serviceable as a 1B-only and there are certainly worse options at the position.

I’m not sure what to expect from Encarnacion-Strand. A wrist injury derailed his season last year and he’s only really accumulated half a season’s worth of plate appearances in the big leagues across the last two years. And the Reds seem intent on accumulating as many infielders as they can, which raises some playing time questions for CES and the other corner infielders on their roster. I’m fine paying a bit for his power potential, but I wouldn’t pay a premium with so many questions still surrounding him.

Chad and I tackled the two largest position groups to start off these rankings, so naturally, we’re starting off this week with the smallest and most straight forward: catcher.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Catcher is the awkward step-child of your fantasy roster — you have to invite them to the family reunion but no one is really excited to see them once they’re there. If you’re able to roster one of the top options, you’re probably pretty happy with their production; if you’re not willing to commit that much budget space to the position, there are plenty of cheap options to find if you wait.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

With catcher being such a unique position where your catcher may only play in two-thirds of his team’s games in any given week, regular playing time is at a premium. So when a player is eligible at catcher in fantasy, but is regularly playing other positions like first base or designated hitter, and therefore getting more playing time than if he was stuck behind the plate, it’s a slight competitive advantage over other players at the position. That’s the main reason why I have Willson Contreras and Perez ranked a tier higher than Chad. I’m willing to pay that premium to get their level of production in my lineup without having to worry about a replacement level catcher to make up the ~30–40 games my primary catcher will miss.

In his first full season as the Cardinals backstop, Herrera impressed with a .351 wOBA and excellent batted ball peripherals to back up that performance. He’s projected to start the season in a timeshare with Pedro Pagés, but I’m willing to bet that his bat will quickly prove that he’s the superior option and will wind up the primary catcher by midseason.

After a promising rookie campaign in 2023, Alvarez followed it up with a weird season in ‘24. His wOBA was exactly the same but his power output fell pretty significantly and his BABIP increased by a nice 69 points. The root causes were a jump in his groundball rate by more than eight points and a barrel rate that was nearly cut in half. Even though his overall production stayed stable, the shape of it is a bit concerning and has me worried about his potential ceiling.

Lucas kicked off our final position group as we look at our difficult keep or cut decisions ahead of the keeper deadline. Here are four starting pitchers on my keep/cut bubble.

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Aaron Nola, SP
Salary: $34
Average Salary: $33
2024 P/G: 4.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.39

2024 was the second consecutive season in which Aaron Nola’s FIP approached four. It’s not hard to see why; after a three-year stretch with a strikeout rate of 30% and a HR/FB rate of 12.5% from 2020-22, Nola has seen both of those metrics deteriorate pretty significantly. His 24% strikeout rate last year was the lowest that metrics has been since his rookie season back in 2015, and while he’s always struggled a bit with a home run problem, that issue has been exacerbated over the last two years.

The good news is that his trademark curveball is still a fantastically effective weapon and his four-seamer plays incredibly well off that breaking ball. The bad news is that his changeup and cutter both lost a ton of effectiveness in 2024, giving him fewer options to attack batters with. Until those other secondary offering regain their bite, I’m not sure he has the same kind of ceiling that we saw in 2022 when he posted a 2.58 FIP.

What Nola does have going for him is a steady track record of solid production while also making more than 30 starts in six straight seasons (ignoring the pandemic shortened season). That kind of bulk production certainly has value but if you’re expecting a front-line starter and paying those kinds of prices to roster him, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed. It’s also worth mentioning that Nola is a far better pitcher in 5×5 or 4×4 formats since his high home run rates really hurt him in Ottoneu points leagues.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting at $34 and I’d expect to see a ton of shares of Nola cut across the Ottoneu universe as players realize he’s just not the ace that his $33 average salary assumes he is anymore. I’m expecting a bit of a rebound — and the projections agree to a certain extent — but I wouldn’t pay more than $15 to keep him on my roster at this point.

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George Kirby, SP
Salary: $34, $19, $18
Average Salary: $19
2024 P/G: 4.92
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.72

I’m really conflicted about what to do with George Kirby. He’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch because he’s an absolute surgeon with his deep repertoire of outstanding pitches. Unfortunately, that precise command seems to be the cause of a lot of the issues that he’s had trouble overcoming during his first three seasons in the big leagues. Because he locates his pitches in the zone so frequently, batters can more easily identify out-of-the-zone pitches when he’s seeking a whiff. Despite running an elite 29.1% whiff rate on his four-seamer, batters have learned to sit on that pitch and regularly punish it after spitting on his secondary offerings.

This tension between maintaining an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio and limiting the hard contact he allows doesn’t have an easy answer either. He’s going to have to figure out how to maximize his secondary offerings while working on a less predictable approach to give batters some pause when they’re facing him. That might mean a few more walks over the course of the season, but if the result is more strikeouts and fewer balls in play, Kirby will likely continue to thrive. If he doesn’t make the necessary adjustments, then the depressed projection might be more accurate than we’d like.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting at $34 (or desperately trying to find a trade partner who really believes in Kirby), but keeping at $18 and $19. That’s pretty close to his current ceiling, but those adjustments could obviously break things wide open and that’s what you’re hoping for if you’re keeping him in the mid-$20s.

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Taj Bradley, SP
Salary: $10
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/G: 4.29
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.42

Taj Bradley started off last year brilliantly; through his first 14 starts, he had posted a 2.43 ERA and a 3.41 FIP behind a fantastic 30% strikeout rate. He fell apart in August and September and ended the season with an ERA and FIP both above four. It was just his second taste of the big leagues and many of his underlying metrics look promising, but there are still big questions about his ability to leverage those skills into a complete package.

All three of his secondary offerings returned a whiff rate over 30% last year. There are just a handful of pitchers who can say the same thing and all of them who can are among the best pitchers in baseball. Bradley’s downfall is his fastball. It’s got good physical characteristics — his 129 Stuff+ on his heater is outstanding — but batters don’t seem phased by it. Its whiff rate is decent, but when the pitch gets put in play, it gets absolutely pounded to the tune of a .391 xwOBA and a .500 slugging percentage against. Since he doesn’t have precise command of his repertoire, too many of his fastballs get left over the heart of the plate where they’re absolutely crushed.

The nasty secondary offerings give me hope that he’ll figure things out but I can’t ignore the very real contact issues he’s faced that have led to far too many home runs. His start to last year gives us a pretty good glimpse of what could be if things go right, but his second half is the red flag that warns us not to pay for that ceiling yet.

Keep or cut?

I honestly could go either way on keeping at $10 and so the decision likely comes down to team context and how my budget is shaping up. That double digit salary is the absolute highest I’d want to roster him for at this point.

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Bowden Francis, SP
Salary: $5, $7
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.46
Projected 2025 P/G: 3.68

Across his final nine starts of the season, Bowden Francis was nearly unhittable, producing a 1.53 ERA while striking out 56 in 59 innings. Those sterling results hid a lackluster 3.42 FIP and 3.75 xFIP during that stretch. Everyone is pointing to the splitter he added to his repertoire last year as the meaningful difference maker but I’d like to point out that he also increased the usage of his slider in August and September and that pitch returned a whiff rate over 50% during those two hot months.

Of course, the projection systems aren’t buying into that two-month stretch yet. They see a pretty steep drop off from what he accomplished in 2024, backed up by his advanced age and long minor league track record. An age-28 breakout isn’t unheard of but it’s pretty rare and it’s unlikely an indicator of a major talent change.

Keep or cut?

At $5, I’m interested in seeing if he really has made a tweak to his slider to unlock that pitch as a true swing-and-miss weapon. At $7, he has too many warts and question marks to keep.

After starting off with the largest position group last week, Chad and I are back with tiered Ottoneu rankings for the second largest position group: the two middle infield positions.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

The two middle infield positions are really interesting beasts to tackle. They’re both extremely top heavy with some of the best players in the game populating the top of these ranks. There’s a very steep cliff down from the top to the middle class and then the positions get really deep in the bargain bin section. You’re very likely to find a replacement level MI on the waiver wire if you look hard enough, which is important if you didn’t secure one or two of those top options on your roster. Because these positions are so top heavy, I think I’m willing to invest a little more budget to ensure I get one of the top options which is reflected in my rankings being a little higher than Chad’s pretty much across the board.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

There are exactly six players with a points per game played projection higher than Witt and he’s younger than all of them. If I was starting a brand-new Ottoneu league today, Witt might be my number one target to build around. You’re going to pay a premium to get Betts’s positional flexibility, but it might be worth it to roster one of the best players in baseball and be able to line him up wherever you want. I went back and forth on ranking Betts and Witt number one, but ultimately decided on Witt’s youth as the separator.

I have Marte a tier higher than Chad because he’s clearly the top 2B in baseball now (if you’re playing Betts at shortstop) and all of his contact quality peripherals took a huge jump in 2024. This isn’t a repeat of his 2019 “breakout” with the rabbit ball; this is legit improvement across every significant batted ball metric fueling a dramatic increase in production.

This second group of middle infielders all have their warts, though they’re still clearly a step above the pack. Whether it’s age (Altuve, Semien), injury (McLain, Correa), or inconsistent production (De Le Cruz, Cruz), it’s a lot harder to predict what you’re going to get from this cohort.

Turner is a tricky one to peg. He had the hiccup in 2023 in his first season in Philadelphia and then rebounded a bit in ‘24 thanks to a 20 point increase in his BABIP. Worryingly, his power output fell quite a bit and his contact quality wasn’t as sterling as it’s been in the past. The track record speaks for itself, but he just hasn’t been the same player as before since joining the Phillies.

I was really tempted to put Edwards in a higher tier because his projection is so rosy. So much of his success in 2024 was BABIP fueled, but he rode high BABIPs to great success as a minor leaguer. He’s got a great knack for squaring the ball up, even if he doesn’t have much oomph behind his swings, plus he’s got a great eye at the plate. It’s a volatile profile, but I think there’s value here.

Jordan Westburg has a weirdly low projection but his contact quality metrics are all solid. You’d obviously like to see a little higher walk rate from him, but he’s aggressive enough in the right counts to make the approach work. I originally had him in a tier lower, but I think his talent will push him into this higher tier once he gets a full season in the majors.

Finally! Some guys I’m lower on than Chad! Torres gave back all the gains he made with his strikeout rate in 2023 and posted a disappointing final season in the Bronx. Now he’s in Detroit and I really don’t like that park fit. Tovar has the ideal park fit but his hyper aggressive approach is going to produce some really low slumps to go along with his altitude fueled production. I really like the improvements Garcia has made over the last few years, but I just don’t see the ceiling to pay double digits for him right now.

My perspective on prospects is pretty starkly shown in my ranking of Jackson Holliday. Yes, he has a very high ceiling and he only just turned old enough to drink last month, but his debut season in the big leagues was a disaster all around. There were a few encouraging things under the hood, but he really needs to prove it before I’m comfortable investing a significant portion of my budget on rostering him. Could I regret that stance in a few years when he’s established himself as a superstar? Maybe.

After a year hiatus, I’ll be presenting my Ottoneu tiered positional rankings alongside Chad. If you’re wondering about the format and methodology, you can find all of that in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

In Ottoneu, you’re afforded five starting spots for your outfielders. That creates a situation where the position is simultaneously deep and shallow. The top of the position is filled with superstars but you’ll be able to find solid production all the way down into the middle tiers. There does seem to be a pretty significant drop off once you get 40 deep which means you’ll likely be filling out the last couple of spots in your outfield with flawed players. Generally, if you’re able to fill at least three of your OF spots with full-time, consistent contributors, you can grab a handful of low cost players to mix and match and platoon based on matchups.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

You can’t go wrong with either of these guys at the top of the rankings. Chad has Judge in a tier all on his own above Soto but I think they’re closer in value simply based on Soto’s age. On that basis alone, you could make an argument that Soto should be ranked first — I won’t make that argument, but you could.

I understand the trepidation behind Chad ranking Acuña lower in his rankings, but the projections absolutely believe that he’ll return from his knee injury and simply continue producing like one of the best players in baseball. It probably won’t be as simple as that, but the talent is undeniable and he’s still just 27 years old.

I also have Tucker and Tatis Jr. swapped in the rankings and that’s mostly due to the wide gap in the projections between the two. There’s a pretty significant cliff between the two of them, and all things considered, I’d rather have Tucker around $50 than Tatis Jr. at the same price.

Although they’re in the same tier as Chad, I’ve ranked that trio of young outfielders a little lower ordinally. Both Carroll and Rodríguez struggled to some degree in 2024 and Chourio only just got his first taste of the big leagues last year. The sky’s the limit for all three of them, but I think you’re going to suffer though some growing pains with all of them before they really hit their ceiling.

I originally had Trout in the tier above in my first draft of these rankings but I think I agree with Chad; we really just don’t know what to expect from him anymore and the reality is that you’re probably paying for a partial season and will be pleasantly surprised if he can stay healthy for 150 games.

I also have Rooker a tier above Chad though ordinally ranked the same. I believe in the changes he’s made to his plate approach last year and the contact quality is undeniable. Plus, he’ll be playing in a much friendlier home ballpark in Sacramento.

This is a really interesting tier because you’ll find stable veterans who will consistently produce in Yelich, Suzuki, and Reynolds alongside youngsters who broke out last year in Duran, Greene, Merrill. Do you want that stability or would you rather dream on a guy who could grow? I think most Ottoneu players would say the latter, which means the former is a little undervalued, especially for teams who need just a piece or two to push for a championship.

I like Duran a bit more than Chad and a lot more than the projections. Duran improved his barrel rate by nearly four points while simultaneously improving his plate discipline in his breakout 2024 season. Steamer sees a pretty significant step back from that level of production but I believe in the changes and think he can replicate it this season.

For Soler and Bellinger, I think their new home ballparks will give them both a boost into a higher tier.

Lee and Buxton both have great projections but their health is a huge question mark. If you’re okay with that risk, they could both be really solid players for your team, except they may only be available for half a season.

Friedl is probably the biggest disagreement between me and Chad’s rankings. I get that all of Friedl’s underlying batted ball metrics look pretty terrible, but his plate approach is stellar and I think there’s a bit of Isaac Paredes in him. His pull rate was over 48% in 2024 and I think he’s selective enough to do damage on his pulled contact while still slapping singles around the field. The biggest reason his production fell last year was because his BABIP cratered to .229; in 2023 when he posted a 115 wRC+, his BABIP was just a hair above league average at .308. He also doesn’t have a traditional platoon split; rather, he has a reverse split where he’s been able to thrive against left-handed pitching by putting the ball in play while reserving all of his pulled and elevated contact against right-handed pitching.

I think the other big difference between me and Chad — and this is going to be true for every position — is that I just don’t value prospects all that highly. If I’m rostering a prospect, I want them to be nearly MLB-ready, have a clear path to playing time in the near future, and they need to have a high FV grade. Rostering a 50 FV prospect who is two to three years away from even sniffing the majors just doesn’t feel like good value to me. By the time they’re established and producing for your fantasy team, their salary is likely to be $5-$7 higher than what you’re rostering them for currently. That’s why there’s that group of prospects at the tail end of my $0-$1 tier who are all ranked higher by Chad.