With Opening Day finally here, draft season has officially come to a close. I’ve been drafting on and off since November and ended up with about 20 teams this season.
In this article, I’ll be breaking down the players that ended up on at least 40% of my rosters, and highlighting why they were targets of mine over the past several months of drafting.
“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”
Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.
Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”
Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster. Since this specific article’s topic is starting pitchers, the components have been slightly adjusted:
Health and Durability
Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control
Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)
Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)
ADP Cluster 4: Starting Pitchers, Rounds 18-20
These are starting pitchers drafted in the 205-240 ADP range in the NFBC Online Championship (OC) over the last seven days.
Health and Durability
Five of the eight are seasoned veterans over the age of 30 – Nola, Musgrove, Flaherty, Boyd, and Gallen. At 35, Boyd is the elder statesman of the group. Abbott (26) has averaged 25 starts over his first three seasons. Leiter was a rookie last season, starting 29 games. Weathers has been in the league since 2021, the year he set his career high for innings pitched (94.2). Weathers turned 26 in December, and Leiter will turn 26 in April.
Aaron Nola has been the poster boy of durability over the last decade. Since 2017, his first full season, no pitcher has thrown more innings than (1,527). Last season was his first time on the IL, missing just over three months with a right ankle injury. Before that, he only spent two brief stints on the COVID-IL, in 2021 and 2022.
Zac Gallen missed three-plus months in 2021 with various injuries (fractured forearm, elbow sprain, hamstring strain) and one month with a hamstring injury in 2024. Since 2022, Gallen is third in innings pitched (734) behind Logan Webb (820) and Framber Valdez (768).
Jack Flaherty has averaged nearly 29 starts over the last three seasons, despite a relatively low innings-per-season average of 155.2, though Flaherty hasn’t been on the IL since 2022.
Andrew Abbott missed six weeks with a shoulder injury in 2024 and nearly three weeks with a shoulder strain in 2025.
Before Matthew Boyd’s 179.2 innings in 2025, he spent 380 days on the IL since 2021, and last pitched a full season in 2019. Boyd dealt with a variety of serious arm-related injuries and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023.
Joe Musgrove missed half the season in 2023 (fractured big toe, right shoulder inflammation), half the season in 2024 (elbow), and all of last with Tommy John. Musgrove had his first bullpen session last August, has no strict innings cap for 2026, and sat at 94-95 with his fastball in his first exhibition game, against Team Great Britain on Wednesday.
Ryan Weathers has spent nearly 250 days on the IL over the last two seasons with finger, forearm and lat injuries. Weathers returned in the final month of 2025 to mixed results, but flashed strong velocity gains. Now with the New York Yankees, Weathers has our fantasy juices flowing in a late-February exhibition game where he topped out at 99.8 mph with his four-seam fastball.
Here are Jeff Zimmerman’s health grades in Eno Sarris’ pitching piece on The Athletic from February 3:
If I were to bet on anyone to pitch 180+ innings, it’s Nola, followed by Gallen. Musgrove won’t be restricted, but I’d be shocked if he threw more than 155 innings (which is OOPSY’s projection). ATC and THE BAT project 133, FGDC, ZiPS and Steamer are between 156-159 and I’ve got him for 150 at FTN. I have Nola for 181, and Gallen and Leiter in the 170s. Abbott, Boyd and Flaherty are in the 160s. Weathers (148, which might be generous) is the biggest red flag, given his health history and substantial uptick in velocity.
Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control
Below is a two-year sample for our cluster. SIERA is my preferred ERA indicator, and I’ve included and ERA-SIERA differential. Note that Abbott’s -1.21 differential signified being the “luckiest” of the group. Last season, that differential was 1.33 (2.87 ERA, 4.20 SIERA). Aaron Nola’s 0.63 differential was the unluckiest. He posted a 4.35 ERA where his SIERA of 3.72 was nearly in line with his career ERA (3.74 through 2024). Strikeout percentage and walk percentage are the preeminent stats for pitcher analysis. The various groundball rates are interesting to review as well. Notice the odd man out there – Abbott at 32.7%.
| Name | ADP | IP | K% | BB% | ERA | SIERA | ERA-SIERA | GB% | vFB | Stuff+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 212 | 293.2 | 24% | 6.4% | 4.35 | 3.72 | 0.63 | 43.9% | 91.9 | 110 |
| Joe Musgrove | 213 | 99.2 | 24.6% | 5.6% | 3.88 | 3.62 | 0.26 | 41.3% | 92.9 | 108 |
| Jack Flaherty | 214 | 323 | 28.7% | 7.3% | 3.90 | 3.38 | 0.52 | 38.1% | 93.1 | 98 |
| Matthew Boyd | 215 | 219.1 | 22.6% | 6.2% | 3.12 | 4.00 | -0.88 | 36.8% | 93 | 93 |
| Ryan Weathers | 218 | 125 | 22% | 6.8% | 3.74 | 4.00 | -0.26 | 45.6% | 96 | 101 |
| Andrew Abbott | 227 | 304.1 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 3.25 | 4.46 | -1.21 | 32.7% | 92.8 | 96 |
| Zac Gallen | 229 | 340 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 4.31 | 4.07 | 0.24 | 44.7% | 93.7 | 92 |
| Jack Leiter | 239 | 187.1 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 4.80 | 4.52 | 0.28 | 37.9% | 96.9 | 107 |
There are no truly elite control arms here, though Joe Musgrove (career 6% BB) and Aaron Nola (6.4%) are most reliable in this regard. Jack Leiter and Ryan Weathers have the nastiest stuff and throw the hardest. Leiter’s control has been his Kryptonite throughout his minor league days. Harnessing and reducing it will be the key for the former second-overall draft pick to fully break out and provide the most fantasy profit among starters in this range. Rangers’ new pitching coach Jordan Tiegs has been with the organization since 2019 and is considered to be a key driver in Leiter evolving as a big-league pitcher. It surely doesn’t hurt having veteran hurlers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi in your corner.
All of these arms except Musgrove rely primarily on their four-seam fastball (between 48-51% usage in 2025). Musgrove has the most diverse pitch mix. He gradually increased his cutter and slider usage over his last four seasons with the Padres. Flaherty is primarily a fastball-curveball-slider guy. His curve was outstanding in 2024 (.175 wOBA, .219 SLG, 40% K). He upped his usage on it in 2025 (from 21% to 25%) and punched batters out at a 41% clip, though it did not fare quite as well – a .281 wOBA, .380 SLG.
Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)
Projections models and personal opinions will all differ, but the one thing we all seem to agree on is that Andrew Abbott is due for some major ratio regression. Abbott posted that magical 2.87 ERA last season, after two seasons of 3.77. FanGraphs models project ERAs between 4.17 (FGDC) and 4.65 (THE BAT X). The lone outlier is ZiPS at 3.80. The most baffling stats were Abbott’s home splits. The fly ball-leaning lefty managed a 2.39 ERA in his home park – extra hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Abbott did reduce his walk rate last season (from 8.9% to 6.3%), but remained a below-average in strikeouts (19.5% in 2024, 21.8% in 2025). His WHIP is likely to land somewhere in the 1.23-1.28 range. He posted a 1.15 WHIP in 2025, 1.30 in 2024 and 1.32 in 2023.
The usually dependable Zac Gallen was a tough player to roster last year. Hitters bashed him to the tune of a 5.40 ERA before the All-Star break, which he cleaned up in the final 2.5 months (3.97). He also served up home runs at an above-average rate (1.45 HR/9) after four consecutive seasons in the 0.73-0.94 range. His velocity didn’t drop last season, but his strikeout rate did – 21.5% after four seasons of 26%. Gallen is a difficult arm to project for 2026 as there is a wide band for ERA and WHIP. A 3.50/1.15 season probably wouldn’t surprise us. Neither would 4.25/1.25. My personal expectations for him are right in the middle.
Jack Leiter throws certifiable heat. His 3.86 ERA was respectable, but a 1.28 WHIP, partially fueled by a 10.8% walk rate, was not. Ryan Weathers throws just as hard, but has done a better job at limiting free passes, keeping his walk rate under 7% over his 125 innings since 2024. These are the two highest-upside pitchers in the cluster, though each come with the most risk and the risk with Weathers is higher, especially as his draft price continues to rise.
Matthew Boyd managed a splendid 3.20 ERA despite higher peripherals (4.09 SIERA, 4.22 xFIP). Boyd was especially solid in his home starts:
Boyd was mostly disaster proof before the All-Star break, allowing no more than three earned runs in 18 of 19 starts. He allowed four or more in six of his final 12 starts. He did not allow more than five runs in any of his starts, and there’s something to be said about drafting boring, late-round veteran arms who reduce our fantasy staff’s volatility. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boyd followed up with another sub-3.50 ERA, but it’s most likely to end up in the 3.65-3.90 range. We can work with that.
Joe Musgrove has the highest ratio upside of the group. His home park is a hit-suppressor factory and he’ll line up for several starts against subpar offenses in his division (COL, ARZ). Among starting pitchers with 500 or more innings pitched since 2021, Musgrove’s 3.20 ERA is tied for ninth lowest. Just stay healthy, Joe.
Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)
Poor Jack Flaherty finished last season with an 8-15 record for a team that was 12 games over .500 and almost won their division. Matthew Boyd’s Cubs won five more games (92 to 87) and Boyd started 31 games just as Flaherty did, but ended up with better run support overall and a 14-8 record. Reviewing Flaherty’s game logs helps paint the picture. He served up at least four earned runs in 9-of-31 starts, including three horrific outings (7 ER vs. CIN, 8 ER at TB, 8 ER vs. KC). The Cubs boasted a top-tier defense last season and project for much of the same in 2026. The Tigers are about league average. This information adds additional insight to their differences in the wins category last season, and likely portends our 2026 expectations.
Aaron Nola would be the safest bet for most wins among this cluster. Ironically, high win totals have eluded the him. Despite six consecutive seasons between 32 and 34 starts, Nola has won more than 14 games in a season once – 17 in 2018. Among pitchers in this cluster, Nola’s Phillies have the highest projected win total (89.5), and the Cubs are next (88.5). The Diamondbacks have the lowest (79.5), and it doesn’t help that the Diamondbacks bullpen was a dumpster fire last year (third worst) and don’t expect A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez back anytime soon. It’s doubtful that Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald hold down the fort in the meanwhile. Wins are the least projectable standard roto category, so we’ll all probably just laugh about it come October if Abbott wins 16 of 33 starts and Nola just 9 of 31.
Recommendation (with target grade)
Aaron Nola (B) – Buy back in on the “King of Even Years”. Plus strikeouts, a low walk rate, decent defense, and good run support from a team with a high win total.
Andrew Abbott (D) – Tough home park for pitchers, a tough hitting division, below-average strikeouts, and the Regression Monster knocking on his door. I’ll pass.
Matthew Boyd (C) – Ceiling is low, but the floor is stable. On a team with a strong offense and top-notch defense of mostly grounded veterans. Likely a pass, but I’d draft him 1-2 rounds after his ADP.
Joe Musgrove (B+) – Intrigued, but if his spring continues to flow flawlessly, the price will rise to the 140-160 range and our margin for profit has sunk. Currently a target.
Jack Flaherty (C+) – Derives value from strikeout output potential based on recent seasons flirting with the 30% K mark. Too much volatility in his profile for me to stomach.
Zac Gallen (C) – Defense projects among the top five, but the bullpen seems wonky, offense is weaker, and Gallen has become the human rollercoaster. Not a target but would consider him.
Ryan Weathers (B) – New high velocity, health history, and durability are all concerning factors. Ideal breakout candidate based on skills and new environment. Beware the rising price. I’d consider.
Jack Leiter (A-) – Ironically, the most affordable per current ADP is my favorite target. Healthy, elite pedigree, killer stuff, pitcher-friendly home park, and the boys in his ear (deGrom, Eovaldi)
The most important takeaway is one that hasn’t been introduced yet – that there are over a dozen starters in the Rounds 21-25 range who are comparable to the arms in this cluster. If we’re comfortable with those later targets, then we don’t have to spend much time shopping in this range. To recap, Leiter is a strong target, Musgrove and Weathers are also, albeit the latter comes with a high risk factor. Boyd, Flaherty and Gallen are considerations, but only after their ADPs. I won’t have Andrew Abbott on any of my teams this season.
VCRs, CDs, DVDs, MP3s, and…MPEs.
These are all acronyms for things that have lost value over the last 30 years. The first four are outdated and of little use outside of nostalgic purposes, due to modern technological advances. The latter is a fantasy baseball term that stands for Multiple Position Eligibility.
We all love the hitter with an extra position of eligibility or three. That urge to bump José Caballero (2B, SS, 3B, OF) two rounds ahead of his ADP is strong! He’s that hot bowl of chicken noodle soup, wrapping your roster in a warm blanket of full positional coverage, with some steals on the side. There’s only one problem with MPE hitters in fantasy baseball these days – they aren’t as scarce or valuable as they used to be. Or at least that’s what it’s felt like recently.
For the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) in 2026, hitters qualify at a position where they played at least 20 games in 2025 and gain in-season eligibility at a position once they’ve played 10 games there.
Here is some recent data on multi-position eligible hitters from NFBC’s all-time career earner, Phil Dussault:
Among the top 300 hitters per the 2024 NFBC Main Event ADP, 47 started the season with more than one position of eligibility, and 75 ended with it. In 2025, there were 39 at the beginning of the season and 78 by the end. Over the last two seasons (less catchers and UT-only), 17% of the 15-team league player pool had at least two positions of eligibility during draft season, and 29% by the end of the regular season. So, nearly 1 of every 3 hitters provided coverage at another position. Is it possible that we are over-inflating the value of MPE hitters?
There is no doubting the extra value that multi-position-eligible hitters bring, especially in a format like NFBC Roto that has two scoring periods per week for hitters. Roster flexibility is extremely important for avoiding zeroes in our starting lineups. We’ve all fallen victim to the mid-week injury where, if not for a guy like Caballero on our bench, we’d be earning no stats at third base if our starter was Royce Lewis and he hit the IL on a Thursday.
MPE hitters are even more important in the NFBC Cutline, which is a hybrid best ball points format. Since we don’t set lineups and weekly scoring is optimized, the 3-4 round ADP bump for MPE hitters in Cutlines is justified. For example, Caballero has a 168 ADP in Cutlines, compared to 205 in traditional roto contests. In managed leagues, multi-position eligible value is measured by the size of the bench – the fewer bench spots we have, the more we should covet MPE guys. In daily H2H and Points leagues, we must be hyperactive managers who optimize each starting hitter spot every day. Most of the time, MPE hitters hang around our rosters because of their quick coverage capability.
Though I’ve been playing NFBC since 2009, I haven’t been good at maintaining historical data until the past few years. To help prove my theory that the MPE hitter market is oversaturated, other than anecdotally, I needed to see the rate of MPE hitters in the draftable player pool over the last 10-15 years. I have far from a complete picture, but thankfully, my old friend and high-stakes stalwart, Scott Jenstad, shared the NFBC ADP from 2017. It’s just a one-year sample, of course, but the findings were interesting. Only 8% of the 290 hitters drafted started the year with more than one position of eligibility. The only hitters with at least three were Javier Báez (2B, 3B, SS), Matt Carpenter (1B, 2B, 3B), and Jedd Gyorko (2B, 3B, SS). The only catcher with another position that year was Willson Contreras (C, OF).
Despite not having a full picture of the last decade or two, most of us who managed fantasy baseball leagues last season recognize the surplus of MPE options on the waiver wire every week. There was always a Zach McKinstry or a Brooks Lee available. The draw of the MPE hitter lost its allure, as we attempted to reset our focus on a player’s projected fantasy output for the upcoming week, not just peacocking our fancy bench of multi-positional hitters for the sake of it.
Let’s quickly touch on some of the most valuable types of multi-position-eligible hitters.
Ben Rice is the prime example this season. He plays for the Yankees, hits the ball hard, and is eligible at catcher, but will mostly play first base and DH. Just like we didn’t draft Buster Posey in 2018 for the first base eligibility, we’re locking Rice into our catcher slot. Evan Gattis (C, OF) was another fun blast from the past. Willson Contreras fit the bill last season, though he eventually found a way back to his second home, the IL. Iván Herrera may sneak his way back into catcher eligibility, which would make him even more valuable, but it may not happen. The Cardinals may opt to utilize him in left field and at first base. In very deep draft-and-hold leagues, Luis Campusano is an option as a UT-only hitter with a high likelihood of earning catcher eligibility in April. Campusano currently projects as Freddy Fermin’s backup in San Diego.
Arguably, the most important type of MPE hitter is one who earns eligibility outside his MI or CI vertical – the middle infielder adding third base eligibility who we plug in at 2B, SS, MI, 3B, and CI, or the corner infielder who earns middle infield or outfield eligibility. The crossover is especially meaningful if it’s a corner infielder who earns middle infield eligibility and can provide fantasy squads with a much-needed power boost.
Isaac Paredes is a prime example this draft season. The draft market has been lukewarm on Paredes due to his one-dimensionality, trade rumors, and the possibility of platooning. His NFBC ADP has dropped from 188 to 237 since December 1. The 27-year-old hit 31 HR with 98 RBI in 2023 and crushed another 20 bombs in 438 plate appearances last season before suffering a severe hamstring strain in mid-July. Paredes played 89 of 102 games last season at third base, has been earning spring reps at second base, and may mix in at first base as well.
Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto (ADP 221) is another hitter whose price doesn’t properly reflect the added value of potential in-season positional gains – outfield and first base. Okamoto is off to a roaring start in spring training, and his ADP is beginning to creep up into the top 200.
Here is another interesting tidbit from Mr. Dussault’s vault – his percentage chance that a single-position player adds a second position during the season, based on their current position:
With only Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ketel Marte, and Brice Turang in the top 100 ADP, second base is easily the weakest position in those early rounds, but it deepens later in drafts. At 39%, it is also the position most likely to gain additional in-season eligibility. Among second basemen drafted in the top 500, 56% (24 of 43) are currently eligible at a position beyond second base. The most popular real-life positional shifts this spring are among fantasy second basemen:
Most of these middle infielders were covered in my ADP Clusters last week, but I must remind you that the market is greatly undervaluing Seattle’s projected leadoff man, Brendan Donovan.
There are a handful of deep league or in-season stream-worthy fantasy second basemen who should also earn a second position of eligibility, though more likely in May than in April:
Since I won’t touch on every player expected to earn new position eligibility, I’ll point out the solid article by Mark Steubinger of Pitcher List that Jeff Zimmerman referenced in his latest Mining the News. Let’s wrap this up with a few final new position gainers.
Bo Bichette, SS – adding 3B
The shortstop position is deep, and it’s important for folks who haven’t been drafting up a storm these last few months to know that you will be tempted to draft a second shortstop earlier than you may like. Those of us locked into a 1.03 pick, earning the pleasure of drafting Bobby Witt Jr., should not cross Bichette off, because he can play third base for us. It’s an especially valuable notion to recall on draft day since third base is the second shallowest position in the top 100 ADP. Just be sure to have another third baseman on the roster to hold down the fort until Bichette qualifies.
Eugenio Suárez, Munetaka Murakami, 3B – adding 1B
These two big boppers should pad our power categories, no matter which corner we start them at. Even the most meticulous planners won’t know for sure where they need these guys until they’re already drafting. Not to mention drafts have a funny way of throwing plans out of alignment. The most important thing is to be mindful of their eventual positional flexibility if one of these guys is a must-have target. Not everything in a draft will go to plan, but the chances of things going our way increase when less new information is introduced to us on the spot.
MPE hitters aren’t the scarce commodity they once were, but are nevertheless a vital element of our draft and in-season strategy, especially in the NFBC Cutline and in leagues with shallower benches. A second position of eligibility can absolutely be a draft pick tiebreaker between two hitters of relative value. Incorporating these projected new positions of eligibility into our player notes, rankings, or draft plans should add another layer of organization and confidence to make optimal decisions in our drafts. When it comes to in-season management, one of our primary assignments to ensure we don’t put ourselves in danger of taking zeroes in our lineup.
The Predictions episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Howard Bender
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The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
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The Catcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
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Reader beware:
A human wrote this article. Some humans’ caffeine levels can fluctuate in predictable patterns and correlate strongly with “time of day” data points. Yet, there’s no telling how many milligrams were present in the author’s typing fingers at the various stages of writing this article. It was an iterative process that took the author much longer than he had originally expected. While a human wrote this article, a machine wrote and generated many sections, namely ChatGPT’s “gpt-4o” model. From here on out, anything written or output by the very friendly and human-helping artificial intelligence (be careful…they’re listening…) will be italicized.
The Value episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
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Larry’s new book – The History of Fantasy Sports
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Tonight, I will be drafting my second $1500 NFBC Auction Championship team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool. You can see the live draft board here. Read the rest of this entry »
