Among hitters with 50 plate appearances in the first and second halves, we examined which hitters earned $15 or more in value in the second half. For some, their value increased because of volume. For others, the increased value came from improved production.
Can hitters affect their draft cost by performing well in the second half? We’ll highlight several hitters who outperformed their draft value by $15 or more. Specifically, we’re touching on eight hitters from this list who earned the most fantasy value in the second half. We’ll cover additional hitters in a future article.
Looking at those who gained the most in end-of-season rank from ADP is always an interesting exercise. Now it all seems so obvious, but to wind the clock back to March, these names were most likely afterthoughts as we prepared draft plans. In an attempt to find a way to get ahead for next year, I pored over metrics to see what cheat code I could find. Alas, there is no perfect formula for predicting the next Jake Bauers or Jordan Walker, but I think some useful methods can at least give us an idea of who might be next season’s breakout.
This is not a piece for player recommendations, but I hope to provide a method to help identify potential value with your own player projections for next year. From a group of 183 hitters who improved their production rank from their ADP, I wanted to try to extrapolate what the biggest contributors to those gains were, and how we can use that information for our draft strategy as we look to identify value.
Decorated rookies can present draft day challenges for fantasy managers. When a new player bursts onto the scene with a limited track record, it can be hard to know exactly how to value the newer player relative to an established field.
Determining which sophomores are worth drafting with their more established counterparts is fun, it’s the strategic itch we want to scratch. We all fall somewhere along the risk tolerance spectrum, which means ADP for these potential sophomore studs often fluctuates dramatically.
Debuts from Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill in 2024 put them up at the top of draft boards the following season. Nick Kurtz and Junior Caminero lifted themselves into the top two rounds this year after electric 2025 rookie years.
Developing star Sal Stewart could find his way near the top of boards in 2027, coming off a rookie season with 32 homers and 112 RBI in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
Deferring the obvious top round talents, though, and moving into the middle rounds brings up one of the hitters I am most excited to draft in 2027. Chase DeLauter.
Park ‘er behind down and stay awhile. Let’s talk about drafting skills versus drafting roles.
I’ve only ever lived in California, so my ability to write poetically about the changing seasons is limited, at best. Hamstrung, to borrow from a Buxtonian turn of phrase.
For me, the easiest way for me to notice the changing seasons has never been snow.
Growing up, it was the change from playing baseball to playing flag football. Exchanging ripped pants for ripped knees.
As I got a little older, and as the Dodgers actually started making the playoffs, shedding the Aaron Miles brand of baseball for Manny Ramirez, and then Hanley Ramirez, I cared less about flag football. But the fall did still have a shining bright spot. Playoff baseball.
Fantasy baseball is a drama. And as such, it follows Freytag’s pyramid. Naturally.
For the uninitiated, think of Romeo and Juliet, a tragedy, not unlike most of our seasons.
The exposition sets the scene. Rising action builds your interest, as the characters you’ve been introduced to start moving and shaking. Then the climax. Violence, betrayal. Injury and breakouts. From there, the falling action is lines you up for the third act, by which point, you’ve already tuned out. Because you’re not making the playoffs. Or getting in the money.
Fantasy baseball is entertaining because it’s set up the same way.
The Exposition takes place within the span of a few minutes as you mourn the end of your season. We already know all of the players. The Rising Action is the rest of the offseason. The anticipation that feeds your late nights of research, making you closer to an angsty teen than you’ve been since high school. Draft prep is your studying now. This all leads up to the Climax. Draft Day. Nothing during the season lives up to the Draft.
That’s why the rest of the season is Falling Action. Your expectations for your team fall. The slope is steep. You stumble through May, rumble through July as your team stretches for its last gasp, and crumble in September, when illusions of this being the year finally fade.
Since we’re in the Rising Action of draft prep… “Already?” some of your leaguemates may respond. But since we, you and I, are already in draft prep, it’s time to use our neatly wrapped 2026 and see what lessons we can take away.
Earlier this season, in the midst of Davis Martin’s ascent, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s slump, and after more than two months of Cal Raleigh’s big dumper of a follow up season, I wrote an article pointing to an interesting trend.
Credit, clockwise from top left: Erik Williams-Imagn Images, Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images, Brad Penner-Imagn Images, Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
I have a fairly small portfolio of fantasy teams – prior to joining the staff here at RotoGraphs I had pared down over the years because managing daily teams on different platforms is a bit of a slog. Going into next year, I might explore joining some leagues with weekly adds. But in any case, I’d rate my season as successful overall.
Sep 24, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images
I’ve written a couple of late-season articles on overperformers and underperformers based on projected versus earned value. As someone who spends plenty of time examining pitchers, my fantasy teams admittedly struggled in pitching points. My team’s pitching ratios exploded due to blowup outings from Jack Flaherty, Luis Castillo, Logan Webb, and others.
“No one cares about your fantasy leagues,” but: I am your 2026 Tout Wars 15-Team Mixed On-Base Percentage (OBP) Auction champion. I’m not sure how helpful draft and/or league recaps are for most people, but I figure debriefing a victory is as good a use of this time as any.
