As with the vast majority of the Brewers’ roster, their outfield presents few question marks in terms of roster construction. Ryan Braun will transition to right field after the organization shipped Norichika Aoki to Kansas City to clear room for 26-year-old Khris Davis, who took the NL Central by storm with a .406 wOBA in his brief major-league debut last season.

Braun and Davis will anchor the corners, while Carlos Gomez projects to roam center field once again — a year after his breakout +7.6 WAR season in which he hit .284/.338/.506 with 24 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Such a tremendous season helped catapult Gomez into elite fantasy-status. He was the sixth-best fantasy outfielder in 2013, according to Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings.

The Brewers should have Logan Schafer on the bench once again, providing a left-handed bat off the bench and above-average defense at any of the three outfield positions. He hit .211/.279/.322 last season, and while he’s certainly a better hitter than those numbers suggest, he doesn’t project to be relevant in any leagues, due to both a lack of playing time and a lack of impact tools with the bat.

The fifth outfielder role isn’t set in stone, but Caleb Gindl will stroll into camp this month with the inside track. His overall .242 batting average won’t impress anyone. However, his 12.9% walk rate and .197 ISO helped compensate for the low batting average, likely impacted by his low BABIP in such a small sample size, and suggest he could be a solid bench bat. And if Khris Davis proves to be nothing more than a platoon guy in left field, Gindl could become a useful platoon partner at the league minimum.

But before we dig our teeth into Khris Davis and Carlos Gomez, the elephant in the room must be addressed. What should fantasy owners expect from Ryan Braun next season?

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If you clicked on this post, you are probably a Cubs fan or an NL-only league player. There are some seriously un-sexy names in the Cubs outfield, but there’s some definite value to be had for NL-only players, and one of the Cub outfielders makes for a very interesting sleeper in mixed leagues. Of the three expected starters, two are looking like values according to early ADP, and the other is priced just about right. Read the rest of this entry »

Last season, the Cubs rotation finished smack dab in the middle of baseball in ERA, but 10th among National League teams. As is usually the case with teams, the staff included a host of overperformers and several underperformers. With two new addition to the rotation, there are many questions that need to be answered on the North side of the Windy City.

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Believe it or not, the Cincinnati Reds’ Starters contributed more total innings than any other National League rotation in 2013. In fact, there aren’t too many other teams with fewer question marks going into 2014 than the Reds, and that’s despite letting their #3 starter walk in free agency (or so it seems). The Reds, by my count, have a very solid four contributors in any fantasy format, and even though they play in one of the friendliest places to hit, you’d be pretty fortunate to have a pair of them on your squad headed into 2014.

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Last season, the Athletics featured a rotation that was deep, but not exceptional. Only Bartolo Colon stood out as above average, and he’s moved on to the New York Mets. The A’s are always resourceful and they’ve built plenty of depth to fill in for the lost Colon. Next season should feature one pitcher who could be a fantasy godsend and a handful of others who have their uses.

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As a group last year, the Mariners outfield ranked 20th in wOBA (.312, tied with Oakland). It wasn’t a group without power (most home runs at 84; sixth in ISO at .165), but that power came with a 22.7% strikeout rate (fifth-highest).

Most of those home runs are gone, too. Raul Ibanez hit 29 of them, and he’s with the Angels. Same with Michael Morse (13, Giants) and Jason Bay (11, idfk). That’s 53 home runs that walked out the door, with just Michael Saunders (12) and what’s left of Franklin Gutierrez (10 in just 151 PA) remaining among those with more than four round-trippers last year.

Outfield was a clear focus for the club this offseason, and in fact may still be until the Nelson Cruz situation plays out. However, it doesn’t appear that Cruz is a great fit for this unit. It isn’t that he wouldn’t likely be an upgrade on paper, but that the Mariners have too much invested — time or otherwise — in players who need to produce or risk being passed over. Primarily, Dustin Ackley and to a lesser extent the Saunders’ and Almonte’s of the world. Read the rest of this entry »

This much we know about the 2014 Texas Rangers rotation on a chilly January day: it’s going to feature Yu Darvish, and it’s going to contain some other guys. That’s no slight to the candidates to fill the latter category — some of them are quite good. It’s just that, at this point, we don’t know exactly who they will be.

So let’s speculate wildly, shall we!

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The Brewers’ starting rotation got much more interesting last week, as they inked right-hander Matt Garza to a four-year deal with a vesting option. He and Kyle Lohse should headline a rotation that could surprise some people who wrote them off after posting a 4.13 ERA and 4.23 FIP in the first half last year.

In the second half, the Brewers’ rotation collectively turned a corner. Their 3.42 ERA was better than the Cardinals and Athletics in the latter half of the season, and it hints at what could be brewing in Milwaukee if the majority of breaks go the Brewers’ way. Marco Estrada was a beast down the stretch, Wily Peralta displayed signs of putting it together, and Yovani Gallardo finally tightened the tourniquet and stopped the bleeding.

Adding Matt Garza to the mix gives the Brewers five solid starters with a pair of intriguing arms waiting in the wings with Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson. It’s not a top-heavy rotation that will awe opposing teams, but it’s a rotation that could pair a couple number-two starters with three mid-rotation guys. Of course, that’s banking on no severe regression from anyone, but the organization has quietly assembled a starting rotation that projects to be at least league average.

But let’s look at the fantasy value because the name brands may not be where the value truly lies.

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The left side of the Texas infield will look the same as it has the last three seasons, but the right side will be completely different with Ian Kinsler being shipped to Detroit for Prince Fielder. Jurickson Profar will slide into Kinsler’s spot. The real baseball implications of the deal are complicated on Texas’ end, but it was definitely a good thing for fantasy owners in that we have three guys who are fantasy options instead of two.

But is Profar a good option? In 324 plate appearances last year, Profar had just a .291 wOBA and 75 wRC+. From a roto perspective he hit just .234 with six home runs and two steals. Profar’s best skills in the minors were his plate discipline and ability to make contact. Of the two, his contact translated better as his contact rate was basically what it was in the minors. And he didn’t just make contact, he made good contact with a 23.4% line drive rate.

His plate discipline, however, didn’t translate immediately. Of course, he’ll never be able to replicate the single digit O-Swing percentages he posted in AA and AAA the last two years. But we can expect his strikeout and walk rates to improve because Jeff Zimmerman has showed us that K% peaks around age 25 and BB% peaks around 27 while ISO and BABIP tend to peak immediately. That’s a long-winded way of saying that an adjustment period was to be expected. Profar’s going to get better quickly, probably a lot better. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a lot of moving parts in the Oakland infield, and I suppose that’s what makes them fun. Let’s go around the horn….

C: Derek Norris, Stephen Vogt, and, for our purposes, John Jaso

This is fantasy, so you can stop thinking about Vogt right now. He’s not likely to get a lot of playing time, he’s 29 without much of a career behind him or projection in front of him, and he’s best known — if he’s known at all — for going approximately a million plate appearances without a hit to start his career. Read the rest of this entry »