There is a lot of disagreement among fantasy players about when to start taking relief pitchers. The one thing that most agree upon is that the first one to take is Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox closer has a three-year track record of success, pitches for a team that should clear 90 wins and is a young 28, with only 230 major league innings on his arm. Papelbon has an ADP of 54, which means that fantasy players start targeting relievers in the middle of the fifth round.

Papelbon’s K/9 fell from an otherworldly 12.96 in 2007 to 10.00 last year. But he compensated by cutting his walks in half. His BB/9 checked in last year at a minuscule 1.04, which was the third-lowest mark for relievers. After back-to-back seasons with a BABIP in the .230s, Papelbon had a .313 mark last year. Combined with a LOB% of 69.5 percent, he saw increases last year in both his WHIP and his ERA.

With a more typical distribution with his LOB% (the only player with 15 or more saves to have a lower rate was Brandon Lyon) Papelbon could easily exceed last year’s overall numbers. And if no pitcher challenges for the all-time saves record, Papelbon could meet pre-season expectations by being the top fantasy closer at the end of the year.

But fantasy players have to ask themselves how much they are willing to pay for Papelbon’s track record. Is it worth taking him in the fifth round, while passing on players like Joe Mauer and Dan Haren? Especially when 30-save pitchers like Kerry Wood and B.J. Ryan are available eight rounds later? Both of those players have had injury problems in the recent past, which makes the Papelbon decision not so cut-and-dried.

The Seattle Mariners enter spring training with a wide-open situation in the bullpen. The M’s will no longer give the ball to J.J. Putz in the ninth inning, as the soon-to-be 32 year-old was shipped to the Mets in a twelve-player package. Also headed to Queens in that swap was groundball specialist Sean Green. After two years of, well, putsing around in the ‘pen, 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow will be moved to the rotation on a full-time basis. So, who’s left in that Seattle bullpen? Let’s take a look.

The top returning reliever, per WPA, is righty Roy Corcoran. The smallish 28 year-old turned in a 3.81 FIP and kept his infielders very busy (69.5 GB%), but there’s some question about the repeatability of his work. The former Expo/Nat struck out about as many batters (4.83 K/9) as he walked (4.46 BB/9) and his career minor league walk rate (4.14 BB/9) is rather high as well. Low-K pitchers can be plenty successful by inducing grounders and limiting walks, but Corcoran doesn’t appear to have the control to make that equation work.

Mark Lowe, 28, is coming off of a season in which he posted a 4.42 FIP. He punched out 7.77 batters per nine innings, but his control often evaded him (4.81 BB/9). The 6-3, 200 pounder has long been on prospect lists due to his mid-90’s heat/mid-80’s slider combo, but injuries (shoulder impingement as well as microfracture surgery on his elbow in an effort to regenerate cartilage in the joint) have held him back. If you’re looking for a guy who fits the closer profile from a “stuff” standpoint, it’s probably Lowe.

Like Lowe, David Aardsma is a flame-throwing righty without sharp command. The 27 year-old’s mix of mid-90’s fastballs and hard sliders have yet to produce anything but angst for his employers, as Aardsma has skipped between the Giants, Cubs, White Sox and Red Sox, before ending up in Seattle for minor league southpaw Fabian Williamson. The 2003 first-rounder has fanned his fair share of hitters in the bigs (8.65 K/9), but an atrocious walk rate (5.6 BB/9) has kept him from being anything more than a replacement-level reliever, with a 4.90 FIP. One thing to watch: according to our pitch data, Aardsma started using an upper-80’s splitter (thrown 10.9% of the time) in addition to his fastball and slider. The chances of Aardsma finally delivering are long, but the M’s have some experience with a control-challenged reliever adding a splitter and subsequently taking off.

Tyler Walker, formerly of the Giants, might also be able to work his way into the mix. The 32 year-old posted a 4.24 FIP last season, with 8.27 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9. The 6-3, 275 pounder works in the low 90’s with his fastball, but has progressivley become more reliant on a low 80’s slider (thrown 30% in ’06, 31.4% in ’07 and 40.3% in ’08).

It’s also possible that some of the team’s rotation excess ends up in the ‘pen, particularly lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ryan Feierabend. Rowland-Smith appeared in 47 games last season (12 starts), posting a 4.53 FIP. His fastball won’t overwhelm anyone (88.7 MPH), but he also mixes in a slider, curve and a changeup on a fairly regular basis. Similarly, Feierabend supplements modest heat (87.8 MPH) with three offspeed pitches, relying heavily upon a high-70’s changeup.

Another long-term name to keep in mind is Josh Fields. The former Georgia Bulldog closer was selected by the Braves in the ’07 amateur draft, but the club didn’t meet his bonus demands. After improving his stock during the 2008 season, Fields was nabbed by the M’s with the 20th overall pick and…didn’t sign, at least not right away. The Boras client recently came to terms, however, receiving a bonus nearing $2 million (as a college senior, Fields had up until next June’s draft to negotiate a contract). The 23 year-old righty fits the profile of a late-inning reliever better than any of the current options, as he comes equipped with mid-90’s gas and a hard curveball. The 6-0, 180 pounder is likely the heir apparent to Putz in the long run.

Last year six Rays relievers registered a save. Troy Percival got the majority of those (28 of the 52) when healthy. When he was hurt manager Joe Maddon relied a bit more on the “closer by committee” approach. While Dan Wheeler had 13 saves Grant Balfour seemed to grasp the closer’s role as the season came to a close. In 2009 the closer picture is even muddier.

The Rays will be bringing back every pitcher who recorded a save except Trever Miller (although he was pretty much just a LOOGY). Jason Hammel who recorded 2 saves will not be relied on for closing except perhaps in dire situations. Troy Percival will be back in the bullben, but he was fairly ineffective last year. He posted an ERA of 4.53, a FIP of 5.87, and a K/9 of 7.43. In other words, other than the saves he brought nothing to your fantasy team. He was a nice waiver pickup or late-round addition for cheap saves, but that was about it. Looking at the rest of the bullpen there seems to be four candidates to get the saves: Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell, and the newly signed Joe Nelson.

Balfour was one of the best relievers in baseball last year. He was utterly dominant with a FIP of 2.22, an ERA of 1.54, and a K/9 of 12.65. To put these numbers in perspective, he had the best K/9 of any reliever in baseball and was fourth in FIP. He was a welcome addition to any fantasy team even without the saves.

Dan Wheeler had a decent year to go with the saves. His strikeout numbers were not great (7.19 K/9), but he posted a pretty good ERA (3.12). I do worry about him going forward as he once again posted a FIP north of 4 (4.49 to be exact) due to his long-ball tendencies. Hid ERA was bolstered by a BABIP of .202 which implies that he should be in for a healthy dose of regression.

J.P. Howell was the second-best reliever in the bullpen. He did not have Balfour’s insane K-rate, his was only 9.27, but he did have a very good FIP/ERA (3.39/2.22). One would expect his ERA to regress a bit, but the defense behind him next year will still be one of the best in baseball. He probably will not be able to repeat the .259 BABIP, but the team allowed only a .288 BABIP for all pitchers (tops in baseball).

The last real option is the recently signed Joe Nelson. Last year he had an ERA of 2.00, a FIP of 3.45, and a K/9 of 10.00. He was very good last year for the Marlins, and he will try to repeat that performance after moving into the division in baseball.

I would imagine that all five of these pitchers will be used in save situations. The trick is finding which will provide the greatest benefit to your team. I rarely draft a proven closer in most leagues because they generally go to high for me and are much too volatile. Situations like these are where I get my saves. Late round picks that rotate in and out of the roster when they are getting saves. With the Rays bullpen, a few things stand out. There seems to be two camps of relievers in the Rays closer situation: the effective ones and the ones with closer experience. Percival and Wheeler fall in the latter, with the rest in the former group. The less effective options may be the ones that fill the closer role, but I would bet the other camp gets their share of saves as well. Howell is probably the least likely to see the bulk of the saves because he is so effective at getting tough lefties out or pitching multiple innings. I would stay away from Percival if there is any issue with injury at the beginning of the season (he was far more effective before his first DL stint). Wheeler will not bring any value if he is not getting the saves. This leaves the two that I would target for my team: Balfour and Nelson. Both should have good ERAs and a lot of Ks out of the bullpen (which is a nice addition). If either of those gets put in the closer role, then I would expect either to be a top 5-10 fantasy reliever. You should be able to get either relatively cheaply (especially Nelson who will not be on most people’s fantasy radars).

Earlier today, we took a gander at high-octane closer candidate Chris Perez. However, Perez is not the only home-grown, gas-pumping reliever who could take over ninth-inning duties for the Cardinals. Many envision Perez becoming St. Louis’ stopper, but Jason Motte poses a formidable roadblock.

While Perez was a well-regarded prospect, developed at a major college program (The University of Miami) that has churned out plenty of high draft picks as of late, Motte’s baseball origins are far less conventional or glamorous. The 6-0, 195 pounder was originally selected in the 19th round of the 2003 draft out of Iona as a catcher. Motte was always lauded for his superb arm strength behind the dish. But the whole…batting thing? It wasn’t really working out. In 614 career minor league at-bats, Motte “hit” a ghastly .191/.220/.233.

Thoroughly convinced that Motte was unable to handle professional pitching, the Cardinals organization decided to shift him to the mound in 2006, hoping that his cannon arm would translate well. Motte worked a total of 39 innings split between State College (New York Penn League) and Quad Cities (Low-A), and the initial results were promising: he posted a 38/7 K/BB ratio with a 2.69 ERA.

The following year, Motte spend just 10 innings with Palm Beach of the High-A Florida State League before being pushed up to AA Springfield, quite the leap for a converted catcher with less than 50 career innings under his belt to that point. Despite his inexperience, Motte made opposing batters look like they were the ones new to their craft, collecting 63 strikeouts in just 49 innings. His control was less than desirable (22 free passes), but he posted a solid 2.96 FIP for Springfield.

St. Louis continued to move Motte through the system aggressively this past season, starting him off at AAA Memphis. Motte had made a habit of missing plenty of bats during his rapid ascent, but his strikeout numbers in the Pacific Coast League were borderline ridiculous: in 66.2 innings, he punched out an absurd 110 batters (14.85 K/9). That figure led the PCL among pitchers tossing at least 60 frames: Dirk Hayhurst finished a very, very distant second with 10.5 K/9. Motte was still occasionally wild (3.51 BB/9), but he posted a 2.29 FIP for Memphis.

Just a few short years after his transition, Motte made his major league debut this past September. Nothing can really be inferred from an 11-inning sample, but the 26 year-old did make a good first impression as he whiffed 16 and walked three. He also showcased his explosive, bat-breaking four-seam fastball: Motte’s average heater came in at 96.6 MPH. He coupled that with an 88 MPH slider, giving batters a “harder, hardest” combo that leaves little time for reaction.

As Baseball America notes, Motte is still messing around with a few different secondary pitches in order to see what sticks: “Motte showed no effective second pitch during his big league stint. He has worked on a slider, cutter and splitter but none is reliable yet.” BA also notes that Motte’s heat is “straight as an arrow” (not surprising, as four-seamers impart the most back-spin on the baseball; the trade-off for the decreased resistance is less tailing action).

It is also worth noting that as Motte jumped levels, he became more of a flyball pitcher: according to Minor League Splits, he posted a 39.1 GB% in AA in 2007 and a 36.7 GB% in AAA this past year. That could lead to a few more souvenirs, though New Busch has done quite the number on HR production since its 2006 opening: Busch III has deflated homers by 16 percent from ’06 to ’08.

Motte is similar to Perez in a number of ways, as both are righties with excellent velocity, intermittent control and nasty-if-inconsistent sliders. It basically seems like a coin flip as to which guy ends up getting the call in the ninth inning as opposed to the eighth. Like with Perez, fantasy owners will want to watch Motte this spring to see if his blazing fastball and ability to fool hitters is enough to counteract average control and just occasionally effective off-speed stuff.

The bullpen in St. Louis is in a state of transition. After handing the ball to Jason Isringhausen in high-leverage situations since 2002, the Red Birds will now have to cobble together another closer. Izzy (now a free agent) battled injuries (knee, hand, elbow) and was generally ineffective, posting a 4.87 FIP and a -2.97 WPA in 2008. Overall, St. Louis’ relief corps turned in a season to forget, finishing 25th in the majors in FIP and 22nd in WPA.

Luckily, hope is on the horizon in the form of a big-bodied, hard-throwing righty: Chris Perez. A 2006 supplemental first-round pick out of the University of Miami, Perez made quick work of the minor leagues in ascending from A-ball to the big leagues within a two-year period. Listed at 6-4, 225 pounds (but appearing to weigh considerably more than that), Perez used his searing upper-90’s fastball and occasionally wicked slider to rack up 147 strikeouts in 109 career minor league innings (12.1 K/9). The former Hurricane surrendered just 61 hits along the way.

While Perez has shown the ability to miss bats aplenty, he has also had his fair share of trouble in finding the strike zone. The 23 year-old issued 72 walks in the minors, a whopping 5.94 per nine innings. Suffice it to say, he’s going to need to harness his control in order to become a guy entrusted in the late innings, rather than the next Kyle Farnsworth (although Farnsy enjoys unfathomable job security at the moment).

When Perez reached St. Louis in mid-May, he continued to tantalize with his K rates and high-octane stuff while also frustrating with his command hiccups. On the positive side, Perez highlighted his closer-worthy talent, pumping in fastballs at an average of 95.2 MPH (used 75% of the time) and complementing the heater with an 85.1 MPH slider (utilized nearly a quarter of the time). That dastardly combo led to plenty of swings and misses, as Perez punched out 9.07 batters per nine innings in 41.2 frames. Control, however, continued to elude the portly right-hander: he allowed 4.75 BB/9, which led to a 4.33 FIP.

At the moment, the Cardinals’ official depth-chart lists Perez as the club’s closer. Whether he holds that distinction when the games start remains to be seen. In an interview with Matthew Leach of MLB.com, Cards skipper Tony La Russa appeared non-committal when asked about his high-leverage horses for the ’09 season:

“You still want to improve your bullpen,” La Russa said. “We still want to try. I know we talked about it. The optimum thing is not to ask Chris or Jason to close in ’09. Let them grow into the role when they’re ready to take it. So who else is out there?”

That interview did take place a month ago, but it serves to show that while St. Louis might admire Perez’s long-term upside, the team is not wedded to the idea of handing over 9th-inning duties to him from day one in 2009. In the publication’s 2009 organizational rankings, Baseball America summed up Perez’s situation perfectly: “Command and inexperience continue to block Perez from being dubbed St. Louis’ closer…he’ll ascend to the ninth once he improves his grip on his repertoire.”

With St. Louis’ late-game ‘pen anything but settled, Perez is certainly someone to watch closely. His strengths (missing bats, plus velocity and a sometimes-nasty slider) peg him as a candidate for important innings, but his progress in harnessing his control and command will dictate just how valuable he becomes. Fantasy owners might just want to follow La Russa’s line of thinking: don’t rush out and anoint Perez just yet, but keep an eye on him with the idea that he could play a larger role down the line.

In many respects, the Detroit Tigers were a disappointing entity in 2008. Preseason prognosticators held a generally sunny outlook for the men from the Motor City on the belief that a Miguel Cabrera-infused offense and a Justin Verlander/Jeremy Bonderman-led rotation would lead to a postseason berth. Instead, Detroit limped to a 74-88 record and a similarly disappointing 78-84 Pythagorean Record.

While the offense didn’t reach the hyperbolic expectations that some held, the Tigers did plate the 4th-most runs in the American League. Where the team truly disappointed was in the run-prevention department: the club ranked 26th in starter FIP, and the bullpen also turned in a wretched performance, ranking 27th in both FIP and WPA. Detroit’s lackluster leather didn’t help things (they ranked 24th in Defensive Efficiency and 27th in UZR/150), but injuries and poor showings on the mound doomed the Tigers to a distant fourth-place finish.

Detroit ostensibly took a step toward fixing their leaky bullpen, inking former Blue Jay, Red Sock and D-Back Brandon Lyon to a one-year, $4.25M deal. Just how much will the 29 year-old aid the Tigers in upgrading a depleted ‘pen?

Lyon’s last three campaigns are a great example of why ERA is such a misleading statistic for relievers. Based on his ERA’s…

2006: 3.89
2007: 2.68
2008: 4.70

..one would assume that Lyon was decent in ’06, great in ’07 and kind of lousy in 2008. However, not a whole lot changed in Lyon’s repeatable skills over that time frame. Rather, the flyball righty (career 41.6 GB%) was the beneficiary of an extremely low HR/FB rate during that superficially impressive 2007 season: only 2.2% of Lyon’s flyballs left the ballpark that year, compared to 9.7% in ’06 and 9% in ’08. After that run of good luck in 2007, Lyon had the misfortune of posting a .355 BABIP this past year.

Here’s a look at his three-year Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), which evaluates a pitcher based on his strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate (thus rooting out Lyon’s wacky ’07 campaign):

2006: 4.18 XFIP
2007: 4.78 XFIP
2008: 4.33 XFIP

As you can see, Lyon’s ’07 season was actually his least effective campaign in recent years. On the positive side, Lyon posted the best walk rate of his career in 2008 (1.97 BB/9) and his K rate (6.67) was the highest since his lone season with Boston in 2003.

Marcel projects Lyon to pitch 62 frames in 2009, with a 3.98 FIP. That projection was made before Lyon switched to the DH league. He will however be moving from a great hitter’s park (Chase Field) to a slight hitter’s venue in Comerica Park. Let’s say that Lyon’s projection increases slightly, to a 4.05 FIP. Given those parameters, Lyon’s fastball/curve mix figures to be worth about 5 runs above what a replacement-level reliever (4.75 FIP) would produce. If we multiply Lyon’s 5 RAR by the average Leverage Index of a closer (about 1.8) to give him some additional credit for pitching more critical innings, he figures to be worth about .9 WAR, or about $4.05 million using a $4.5M/WAR scale.

So, Lyon figures to be worth most of the money that the Tigers will pay him, and he is coming off a season in which he posted the highest strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. Adding a guy like Brandon Lyon to a club’s bullpen is not in itself a problem. Where the problems lies for the Tigers is that Lyon just might be the best option that they have for the late innings, considering Fernando Rodney‘s flammability and Joel Zumaya’s tenuous health.

Lyon seems like the guy who’s going to rack up the glory stat in Detroit, so he merits attention on draft day. Just don’t reach for him- plenty of other relievers have similar skill sets and talent levels. The only thing that separates Lyon is that he enters the game in the 9th inning with a lead between one and three runs.

Seattle Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik announced yesterday that both Brandon Morrow and Aaron Heilman with have the opportunity to compete in spring training for 2009 starting gigs.

The room is there to accommodate both pitchers – if the organization wants to admit its mistakes and place both disappointing starters – Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista – in the bullpen. The oft-injured Erik Bedard is also not a good bet to spend a full season in the rotation after having his frayed labrum repaired in September. The only real locks in the rotation, at this point, are Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn.

Morrow certainly has more upside – and fantasy potential – than Heilman. The 24-year-old hurler, who has spent the majority of the past two seasons in the bullpen, was hard to hit in 2008 and allowed just 40 hits in 64.2 innings. Batters made contact against Morrow 72.7% of the time (compared to King Felix, for example, at 80.8%).

He also has very good stuff – with a fastball that sits around 95 mph, as well as splitter and a slider. Unfortunately, his repertoire is fastball-heavy at this point and he will have to sharpen up the command and control of his secondary pitches to succeed as a starter.
Morrow’s overall control – or lack thereof – could be his undoing as a starter. His walk rate was a startling 7.11 BB/9 in 2007 but it improved to 4.73 in 2008, which is still far too high.

Heilman certainly cannot compete with Morrow’s raw stuff, but the right-hander has a history of solid command and control. That deserted him in 2008, though, and he posted an out-of-character walk rate of 5.45 BB/9. He was also more hittable in 2008 than in previous seasons and allowed 75 hits in 76 innings. At 30 years of age, Heilman should be peaking as a pitcher, so his 2008 season is a little disturbing. He is also moving to league that produces more offence, which could further muddy his numbers in 2009.

By moving both Morrow and Heilman to the rotation, it would severely damage the Seattle bullpen, which lacks proven, veteran relievers. He may not like it, but remaining in the bullpen will probably benefit both Heilman (Can he hold up health-wise as a starter? Probably not.) and the Mariners. It should also help fantasy owners because the right-hander would not be a top-tiered pitching option and, as a late-inning reliever, he would likely help preserve some of Morrow’s wins.

The Milwaukee Brewers are again attempting to sure-up the closer position by bringing in an aging, established closer. Gone is Salomon Torres after he replaced the ineffective Eric Gagne. Last year, the Brewers blew 26 saves (ironically the same amount as Hoffman’s former team the Padres), so they brought in the all-time saves leader to try to shore-up the backend of the bullpen. Trevor Hoffman had one of his worst seasons since taking over the closer role in San Diego. He recorded his highest ERA since 1995, his lowest save total (other than 2003 when he only pitched in 9 games) since 1994, his lowest innings total of his career other than 2003, etc.

Trevor Hoffman’s statistics do not look that bad at first glance. Yes, his FIP of 3.99 was high, but he posted a 2.94 the year before. In fact over the last five years, Hoffman has averaged 55.6 IP with a FIP of 3.13. He also has been at about one strikeout per inning every year. While he does not pile up the Ks, he also does not beat himself with walks. Age is a big issue with Hoffman, but the bigger issue to me is how a flyball-pitcher will translate away from the friendly confines of Petco Park. The following is Hoffman’s FIP in Petco (pFIP), converted to a neutral park (nFIP), and in Miller Park (mFIP).

As you can see, leaving Miller Park definitely hurts Hoffman’s effectiveness. Throwing in his advancing age, it would not seem out of line to expect a FIP of 4.5 or higher. Bill James (of course), Marcels, and CHONE are a bit more optimistic about Hoffman’s future than I am with FIPs of 3.24, 4.00, and 4.18. My expectations are over a quarter of a run higher than Salomon Torres’s FIP from last year (4.22). If he essentially repeats what Torres did last year, then he is definitely worth a draft pick. He is not, however, worthy of being considered anywhere near an “elite” closer or a must-draft. I would also be wary because who knows how well his arm will hold up with his advancing age.

Matt Lindstrom can throw a baseball 100 miles per hour. And if that was not good enough, the Marlins traded Kevin Gregg in the off-season, clearing the closer’s job for Lindstrom. With Logan Kensing and Scott Proctor as his main competition, it appears Lindstrom should be the team’s closer on Opening Day. So, why isn’t there more excitement surround Lindstrom? He does not crack the top 200 in early ADP reports.

Last year, Lindstrom’s walk rate was less than good. He suffered through a minor back injury and spent some time in the minors. But when he was with the Marlins, he posted a 4.08 BB/9 which led to a 1.45 WHIP. His previous track record with walks is spotty. Lindstrom was very good with the Marlins in 2007, with a 2.82 BB/9, but his minor league record shows seasons in line with 2008.

Gregg notched 61 saves for the Marlins over the past two seasons with a walk rate similar to Lindstrom’s mark last season. But let’s not get bogged down with his walks. In addition to his velocity, Lindstrom is also a groundball pitcher. His GB/FB ratio last year was 1.54, which led to a microscopic 0.16 HR/9, the fourth-lowest total among relievers. Some might think that he’s in for a major regression but in 2007 his HR/9 checked in at 0.27 for the year.

The combination of a top-notch fastball, lots of ground balls and very few home runs allowed is an attractive one for a potential closer. One thing to be wary of is that Lindstrom has agreed to pitch for the U.S. in the WBC. Instead of spending Spring Training refining his slider and firmly establishing himself as the team’s closer, Lindstrom will be setting up Joe Nathan, Brian Fuentes, Jonathan Broxton and others.

While that is a concern, it should not override a guy with an excellent shot of posting 30+ saves with solid strikeout numbers. In his two years in the majors, Lindstrom has a 7.60 K/9 rate. That’s a nice combo for a guy going in the lower 20 percent of mock drafts currently.

The Toronto Blue Jays organization has been stockpiling left-handed pitchers in the last couple of seasons, which has created impressive depth. At this point in the off-season, the organization could utilize upwards of 10 southpaws in 2009, should the need arise. With left-handed pitching always in short supply around the Majors, the organization could also use that depth to acquire some much-needed offence.

The majority of the left-handed pitching for the Jays comes in the form of relievers. Those relievers include B.J. Ryan, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Jesse Carlson, Fabio Castro, Reid Santos, and Davis Romero. The starting pitchers include youngsters David Purcey, Ricky Romero and Bill Murphy.

From a Fantasy perspective, Ryan is the most likely pitcher to have an impact in 2009. The closer missed almost all of 2007 after having Tommy John surgery but returned for 2008 and saved 32 games in 36 attempts. Despite the save total, Ryan’s stuff did not return to its pre-surgery levels and he lost a couple miles per hour off both his fastball and slider. His command also wavered and his walk rate worsened by more than one walk per nine innings from his days as a dominating reliever. On the plus side, he still saved quite a few games despite not having his best stuff. Ryan is now even further removed from his surgery so there is some hope that he will regain some velocity on his pitches in 2009. If he does, he has the potential to reach the 40-save plateau.

Downs has been a valuable pitcher for the Jays after being saved from the scrap heap prior to the 2005 season. In the past two seasons, the reliever has appeared in 147 games for the Jays and has a FIP of about 3.30 during that time frame. In 2008, the left-hander allowed just 54 hits in 70.2 innings of work and posted rates of 3.44 BB/9 and 7.26 K/9. The former starting pitcher has saved his career with the move to the bullpen but the Jays are considering stretching him out in spring training with an outside chance of giving him a starter’s role in 2009. He’s added 3 mph to his fastball in the past three seasons but he’s also gone from relying on four pitches to two. It will be interesting to see how Downs responds in spring training; he’s someone to keep an eye on.

Both Tallet and Carlson could have significant roles on the Jays in 2009 but neither should have a Fantasy impact.

Among the starters, Purcey figures to have the best shot of beginning the season in Toronto. Last season, the former first-round pick finally improved his command and control enough to pitch at the Major League level. The 26-year-old allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work and posted rates of 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. At 6’5”, 240 pounds, he has a workhorse body and the raw stuff to succeed, as long as he can find the strike zone. With a number of holes in the starting rotation, Purcey will have a great shot at pitching 180-200 innings.

Romero is another former first-round selection that has struggled with consistency in the minors, in part due to a lack of command. He finished the 2008 season in Triple-A and showed enough improvement to give hope that he could contribute at the Major League level in 2009. In seven starts, he allowed 42 hits in 42.2 innings. He posted rates of 4.22 BB/9 and 8.02 K/9. When he’s on, Romero works in the low 90s with a good change-up. His breaking balls are inconsistent but the curveball has plus potential. The 24-year-old probably won’t begin the season in Toronto but he could be racking up big league innings by the end of the season.