David Golebiewski took a good look at Jonathan Broxton on Dec. 18, shortly after former closer Takashi Saito was non-tendered by the Dodgers. David concluded – and rightfully so – that Broxton was a no-brainer option to fill the closer’s shoes.

That said, there may be another option in Los Angeles – one who is equally qualified statistically speaking – if he can stay healthy. Hong-Chih Kuo was just as dominating as Broxton in 2008, but he missed more time due to injuries (an on-going theme in his career), including a sore elbow and possible (but unconfirmed) blood clots.

In 2008, Broxton allowed 54 hits in 69 innings, as well as rates of 3.52 BB/9 and 11.48 K/9. He allowed just two home runs, for a measly 0.26 HR/9 rate and stranded 67.7% of base runners. His GB% on batted balls was 44.5%, while his line-drive rate was 23.2.

When facing batters, Broxton pumped in first-pitch strikes 59.7% of the time. When hitters took a swing, they made contact with his pitches at a rate of 71.2%. The right-hander’s biggest nemesis was the left-handed batter. Against left-handers, Broxton allowed a .270 batting average, compared to .181 against right-handers.

Interestingly, in save situations, Broxton had a 4.25 ERA, and allowed batters to hit .234. In non-save situations, he had a 1.91 ERA and had a batting-average-allowed of .196. With runners in scoring position in all situations, Broxton allowed a line of .316/.402/.395.

In 2008, he featured a fastball that averaged out around 96 mph, as well as a slider, and a change-up that he used less than 3% of the time. Kuo, on the other hand, did not throw quite as hard at an average of 93 mph but he used it more than 80 percent of the time. He also showed a slider, curveball and occasional change-up.

Kuo allowed 60 hits in 80 innings pitched in 2008. He also posted rates of 2.36 BB/9 and 10.80 K/9. Kuo allowed just four home runs, good for a rate of 0.45 HR/9. He stranded runners at an impressive rate of 80.4%. He induced ground balls at a rate of 46.4% and gave up line drives at a rate of 19.9%.

While Kuo has better control than Broxton, the command is not always there and the Taiwanese lefty pumped in first-pitch strikes at a rate of 57.6%. Overall, batters managed to make contact against Kuo 74.4% of the time. He was equally successful against both left-handed and right-handed batters with averages-allowed of .202 and .205, respectively.

In save situations, Kuo had a 1.66 ERA and allowed a batting average of .177. In non-save situtions, batters hit .201 against him, while he posted an ERA of 1.70. With runners in scoring position, Kuo posted a line of .179/.247/.298.

Kuo’s season may have been even more impressive if he had stayed healthy. In the first half of the year, he allowed 38 hits in 53.1 innings of work and struck out 63 with 13 walks. In his injury-riddled second half, Kuo allowed 22 hits in 26.2 innings and struck out 33 with eight walks.

If Kuo can remain healthy in 2009 – and that is a big if – the Dodgers organization has a pair of dominating late-game relievers to choose from in save situations. Also on the plus side, the two pitchers can be used for lefty-righty match-ups if the situation warrants such a ploy. Without a doubt, though, opponents are going to have a rough time in 2009 when trailing the Dodgers by three runs or less in the eighth and ninth innings.

Brian Fuentes recently inked a contract with the Angels to replace Francisco Rodriguez as closer. And as weird as this may sound…the Angels may have upgraded.

I won’t argue the merits or drawbacks of Rodriguez (although I have in other places). However, Fuentes has quietly been very good over the last couple years.

Last season was particularly good. Fuentes struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, while walking 3.16. He also allowed only three homers in 62 innings – although this is mainly due to an inordinately-low homer rate, as only 4.5% of his fly balls became homers. However, in his career, only 8.7% of his fly balls have become homers, so even though he tends to allow a lot of fly balls, he doesn’t allow too many homers.

Last season seems like it’s somewhat of an outlier in Fuentes’s career – but not by that much. His career strikeout rate is 10.24 per nine innings, and his career walk rate is 3.82. It’s fair to assume that Fuentes won’t quite approach last season’s peripherals or ERA, but it’s very reasonable to assume that Fuentes will strike out more than one batter per inning and will post an ERA in the 3.50 – 3.80 range (if that seems high, keep in mind that Fuentes will be moving to the more difficult league, even if he’s also leaving Coors Field in the process).

The key to Fuentes’s value in fantasy leagues is his situation. Fuentes signed a big-dollar deal to be The Closer for Los Angeles, a team which has thrived on having relievers in set roles. Therefore, Fuentes’s job is very safe – even if he pitches poorly in back to back outings, he’s unlikely to be relieved of his closer duties permanently. Furthermore, Fuentes has relatively little injury history, so even though he’s risky by definition (most relievers are fairly risky), he’s not a huge injury risk.

Additionally, although this may seem somewhat counterintuitive as a positive for Fuentes, the Angels aren’t going to be very good next year. Their offense overachieved in 2008 and they have lost Mark Teixeira and Garrett Anderson, leaving their offense as potentially one of the worst in the American League. This actually bodes well for Fuentes, because it means that the Angels aren’t going to blow many teams out. Rather, when they do win games, chances are the games are going to be close, leading to a lot of save opportunities for Fuentes. This is what allowed K-Rod to rack up so many saves last year, despite being no better than average at converting save opportunities into saves.

All in all, Brian Fuentes is a low-risk, above-average reliever who is likely to have a lot of save opportunities. Furthermore, he’s unlikely to be removed from the closer’s role if he struggles a little bit, and he should post solid numbers, even if they regress from last year’s numbers. Fuentes is likely to be available after the “top tier” of closers have been taken, and is the exact type of pitcher you should be targeting.

Due to a combination of a tremendous strikeout mark, a solid ERA and a nice WHIP, Carlos Marmol had a fantasy value of roughly $6 in a 12-team mixed league last year. That figures to go up substantially in 2009 as he takes over the closer’s role for the Cubs with the departure of Kerry Wood.

Some owners will be wary of Marmol, due to the fact that he hasn’t been a closer for a full season previously. Others will point to his high walk rate, while some will be scared off by his FIP, which was nearly a run higher than his actual ERA. There are also questions about his stamina, as a rough patch in June was attributed to fatigue.

Smart fantasy owners will use all of these fears to acquire Marmol cheaper than he should go in an auction or later than he should go in a draft.

While Marmol has not closed previously, he converted seven of eight save chances last year (one of his two blown saves came in the seventh inning). The walk rate is definitely a concern, but as Francisco Rodriguez has shown the last few years, a high strikeout rate can offset a poor walk rate. Most of Marmol’s poor outings came between May 31 and July 2. But whatever was bothering him then was quickly rectified. After the break he had a 1.29 ERA with 16 BB and 44 K in 35 IP.

The Cubs also have former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg and former college football star Jeff Samardzija in the bullpen. They may siphon off some saves during the year, but in 2008 Wood had 34 of the team’s 44 saves. Since the Norm Charlton–Heathcliff Slocumb fiasco in 1997, manager Lou Piniella has displayed a strong preference for one closer in his next 10 seasons at the helm. Not once in those 10 years have two relievers on a Piniella-managed team reached double digits in saves.

Wood had a $19 season in 2008 and was a top-25 pitcher overall as the Cubs closer. I might be a tad more conservative than that for Marmol, but I would expect that to be a ballpark figure of his worth in 2009.

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa is considering the option of using rehabbing starter Chris Carpenter as the club’s closer for 2009. With former closer Jason Isringhausen likely on his way out of town as a free agent, after a disappointing 2008 season, the club is left with just younger pitchers with true closer experiences (in the minors and college). The club recently lost out on former Colorado closer Brian Fuentes, who signed a two-year contract with the Los Angels Angels.

Everyone who knows LaRussa knows he’s not likely to give such a key role to a pitcher like Chris Perez or Jason Motte, with just 41.2 and 11.0 innings under their belts, respectively. Perez, 23, collected seven saves in 2008 with St. Louis and blew four save opportunities. Motte, 26, collected one save and did not blow an opportunity.

Perhaps LaRussa is looking for the next John Smoltz, another talented right-handed veteran pitcher, whose effectiveness and durability were derailed by injuries to his arm and shoulder. Smoltz was 34 when he became the closer for the Atlanta Braves. Carpenter will be 34 as of Opening Day 2009. Smoltz had been in the Majors for 13 seasons; Carpenter will have been in the Majors for 12.

Smoltz and Carpenter have similar repertoires at this points as starters. Based on small sample sizes from 2008 (just four games for Carpenter, and six games for Smoltz) both utilized fastballs and breaking balls as their two main weapons, although Carpenter favored the fastball (52.7%) about 10 percent more than Smoltz. Both pitchers averaged out around 91-92 mph. Smoltz used his slider (37.5%) about 10 percent more than Carpenter. They also have curveballs and change-ups that they mixed in, although the Cardinals righty used his curveball far more often in his last healthy season (2006: 22.2%). Carpenter also used a cutter 2.9% of the time, while Smoltz has a splitter that he used 8.6% of the time in 2008.

Obviously, comparing the above numbers does not solve the question of whether or not Carpenter will be an effective closer but it is kind of interesting to compare the two players on a somewhat superficial level. There are enough similarities with the two players to suggest that Carpenter could be an effective closer, if he can handle the rigors of pitching on back-to-back or back-to-back-to-back days. It also won’t be hard to top Isringhausen’s 2008 season after he saved just 12 games and posted an ERA of 5.70.

Whether he pitches out of the bullpen or the starting rotation, the Cardinals definitely need to figure out how to get the best value out of Carpenter, as he is signed through the 2011 season (with a club option for 2012) at $14 million or more a season. Carpenter would certainly be a sleeper choice for Fantasy owners if he heads into the 2009 season in the bullpen.

Don’t look now, but Giants GM Brian Sabean may very well be enjoying the best offseason of any GM, non-Yankees division. In addition to bringing still-nasty Randy Johnson into the fold for what figures to be a below-market deal, Sabean has added a potentially useful middle man in Bob Howry, a cheap power bat in Josh Phelps and a shortstop in Edgar Renteria who will at least abate those Brian Bocock-induced nightmares. But Sabean kicked off his solid winter by snagging southpaw Jeremy Affeldt to a shrewd two-year, $8 million deal.

A lefty who cooks with gas, Affeldt was nonetheless a perennial disappointment in Kansas City, throwing hard but indiscriminate pitches that often resulted in a free pass for the batter (that role is now dutifully filled by Kyle Farnsworth, who must have some embarrassing photos of Dayton Moore or something; how else does a replacement-level reliever snag two years and $9.25 mil? Farnsy might be able to outslug Affeldt, but outpitching him seems pretty unlikely. But I digress.)

After a solid 2003 campaign with K.C. (3.74 FIP in 18 starts and 18 relief appearances), Affeldt tossed 76.1 frames and a 4.16 FIP in 2004, again splitting time between the rotation and the ‘pen while battling a rib cage injury. He followed that up with a 2005 campaign in which he hit the DL with a groin strain on two separate occasions. After a disastrous ’06 season where he was traded to Colorado mid-season (97.1 IP, 5.65 FIP), he turned in a decent 2007 season with the Rockies, posting a 4.17 FIP in 59 innings. His control still left much to be desired, however (5.03 BB/9).

The 6-4, 225 pounder inked a 1-year, $3 million deal with the Reds last offseason. Upon reaching Cincy, Affeldt appeared to transform into a different type of pitcher. In 78.1 innings, he posted a career-best 3.66 FIP, generating nearly two ground balls for every flyball hit. One might that that Affeldt’s ’08 season was just a flash in the pan, the sort of thing that occasionally happens with relievers in a relatively small sample of innings. And perhaps that’s true. But, there are several reasons to believe that this new-and-improved Affeldt is here to stay.

Nothing in Affeldt’s stat sheet suggests that his performance in Cincy was a fluke. He upped his strikeout rate to a career-best 9.19 batters per nine innings, over two K’s per nine more than 2007. Most importantly, he shaved his walk rate by a significant margin, issuing 2.87 BB/9.

Not surprisingly, Affeldt increased his first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%). Batters found themselves behind 0-and-1 or put the ball in play 57.9% of the time in 2008, up from 55.7% in ’07 and just 49.3% in ’06. If anything, Affeldt was actually unlucky in 2008. His BABIP was .329 behind a leaky Cincinnati defense (29th in team Defense Efficiency), and his home run/flyball rate of 15% about 3-4% above the typical rate for pitchers. Using XFIP to normalize that HR/FB rate, Affeldt’s ERA drops to 3.40. For comparison, Francisco Rodriguez’s XFIP was 3.71 in 2008.

So, how did Affeldt turn his career around? The 29 year-old found an additional 2 MPH on his fastball, throwing his heater at an average velocity of 94.6 MPH (92.3 MPH in ’07). Also, his big-breaking, high-70’s curve showed a lot more bite this past season. Let’s take a look at Affeldt’s pitch f/x data from Josh Kalk’s blog:

2007

Fastball: 5.46 X, 10.05 Z
Curveball: -3.08 X, -1.25 Z
Changeup: 3.46 X, 8.29 Z

2008

Fastball: 5.87 X, 8.68 Z
Curveball: -4.87 X, -5.57 Z
Changeup: 6.48 X, 7.08 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Look at the difference in depth between his ’07 curve and the nasty hammer he threw in 2008- his ’08 curve dropped over four inches more in the zone than it did the previous year. With a hopping heater and a sinister hook, Affeldt lowered his Contact% to 73.5% (down from 81.2% in ’07, ranking between Grant Balfour and Hong Chih Kuo) and baited batters into fishing for a pitch outside of the strike zone 26% of the time (22.6% in ’07).

As of right now, Affeldt is penciled in to be either the 7th or 8th-inning guy in San Francisco, but it’s possible that he rises from that position at some point. Current closer Brian Wilson also misses plenty of bats, but he’s not infallible, as his career 4.34 BB/9 suggests. If Wilson experiences some rough moments, Affeldt has the goods to close the door and pick up some saves along the way.

It’s once again time to play one of our favorite games around these parts: Name That Pitcher! Here are our mystery hurlers…

Pitcher A: 69.1 IP, 11.94 K/9, 4.54 BB/9, .317 BABIP, 82.9 LOB%

Pitcher B: 67 IP, 11.82 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, .308 BABIP, 78.3 LOB%

As you can see, our mystery pitchers are strikingly similar. Both racked up huge strikeout numbers and walked a fair amount of batters. Neither guy experienced terrible luck on balls in play, though Pitcher A fared worse in that category. Pitcher A was also a little better in stranding runners on base. Overall, though, these two stat lines are near reflections of one another.

However, the perception of the two diverges pretty dramatically. Pitcher A was a perfect 41-for-41 in save opportunities and was considered to have perhaps the best relief season in the game. On the other hand, Pitcher B was considered a pretty large disappointment, so much so that he was shipped out of town for a middle reliever, a lukewarm third base prospect and a center fielder who posted a mind-numbing .276 wOBA (22.1 runs below average) in 2008.

So, who are these guys? As you’ve probably already guessed, Pitcher A is Brad Lidge. Pitcher B is…also Brad Lidge, in 2007.

While Lidge was somewhat better in 2008, this comparison serves to show how there really wasn’t that wide of a difference between “head case” Lidge in ’07 and “World Series champ” Lidge in ’08. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times (which evaluates pitchers based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate), we find that ’07 Lidge (3.42) was a little worse than ’08 Lidge (3.06), but not by as much as one might initially think. What led to the big gap in perception?

Home runs. In 2007, Lidge gave up 9 long balls in 67 innings, or 1.21 per nine innings. His Home/Flyball rate was pretty lofty, at 13.2% (and that was actually an improvement from an inauspicious 16.4% mark in ’06). In 2008, Lidge served up only 2 home runs in 69.1 innings, or a measly 0.26 per nine innings.

Nothing changed dramatically in the Notre Dame product’s batted ball data- rather, his HR/FB rate sank to an absurdly low 3.9%. To put that into context, pitchers typically give up two and a half to three times as many homers per flyball hit, and Lidge’s career HR/FB is 10%. Couple regression to the mean with a homer happy ballpark (Citizens Bank’s three-year HR park factor is 122), and it seems very likely that Lidge’s HR rate will quadruple next season.

This is the challenge faced when evaluating reliever performance. We’re dealing with inherently small sample sizes, and a few fortunate or unlucky bounces here or there can dramatically change the perception and quality of a player’s season. By most measures, Brad Lidge circa 2007 was a doppelganger of the relief ace that helped the Phillies win a world championship. But because a few extra flyballs found their way into the stands in ’07 and virtually none did in ’08, the two seasons are viewed as different as night and day.

The purpose of this exercise is not to diminish Brad Lidge’s accomplishments this past season. He enjoyed an excellent ’08 campaign, racking up a league-leading 5.37 WPA. However, his minuscule HR/FB rate does figure to rise in 2009. With some extra souvenirs likely finding their way to the paying customers, Lidge might revert back to the 2007 version of himself next season. And you know what? That’s not really a bad thing.

At first glance, one might think that Jonathan Broxton just got lost on his way to a San Diego Chargers game. The 6-4, 290 pound behemoth wouldn’t at all look out of place in the huddle (and, in fact, he’s bigger than defensive end Luis Castillo). But Broxton is very much a pitcher, and as one might expect from such a frame, he is capable of tossing scorching fastballs that wear out radar guns everywhere.

Selected out of a Georgia high school in the second round of the 2002 draft, Broxton began his career as a starting pitcher. Fifty of his 87 career minor league appearances were of the starting variety, and he fared quite well in the role. In the High-A Florida State League in 2004, he punched out 144 batters in 128.1 innings, walking 43 and surrendering just 110 hits. Despite the success, Broxton was always seen as a reliever-in-the-making, with his premium heat, sharp slider, ample size and lagging changeup.

Suffice it to say, Broxton took to the bullpen well, and has posted three consecutive high-octane seasons for the Dodgers. His career Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) is 2.72, with a gargantuan 11.43 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. Equipped with mid-to-high 90’s gas (which has actually increased in speed each year of his big league career) and an upper-80’s slider, Broxton has been extremely difficult to make contact with. His career Contact% is 72.4%, including a 71.2 mark in 2008 that ranked 10th among all qualified relievers.

Broxton was used in plenty of critical situations in ’08 (his LI was 1.7), but he didn’t perform as well as he had the previous two seasons. While he stranded runners at an 82.2% clip in ’06 and 75.1% in ’07, his LOB% fell to 67.7% in 2008. Broxton’s WPA was -0.14. With a low strand rate and a high BABIP (.328), however, he figures to improve going forward. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we find that Broxton’s ’08 performance (2.91) fit right in with his 2006 (3.33) and 2007 (2.75) showings.

Though he didn’t fare especially well in high-leverage moments in 2008, Broxton still possesses all the skills necessary to become one of the best relievers in the NL. He’ll more than likely get the chance to prove his closer worthiness, as Takashi Saito was recently non-tendered due to concerns over the condition of his elbow. With the ability to miss bats by the bushel, Broxton figures to tackle hitters in the late innings in 2009.

Francisco Rodriguez had a fantastic season in 2008, where he set the single-season save record and was the most valuable relief pitcher in fantasy baseball. But conventional wisdom says to avoid Rodriguez this year in fantasy drafts. It would be one thing if analysts said that he was likely to have 20 fewer saves this season and left it at that. Instead, they talk about how Rodriguez has had four years of declining peripherals and is on the verge of losing his effectiveness as a relief pitcher.

Rodriguez has declining peripherals has been repeated so often that it is now virtually an urban myth. And like with all urban myths, you should politely nod and completely ignore it.

In 2004, Rodriguez had a 13.18 K/9 ratio. Anyone who expected him to maintain that rate the rest of his career was not being realistic. His 10.14 K/9 in 2008 was the 15th-best mark in the majors. Rodriguez is in a lose-lose scenario with analysts in regards to his strikeout rate. Any higher and they would claim it was unsustainable. And now that it’s not in the top 10, it’s a huge warning sign that he’s lost his stuff.

To further back up this point, people will tell you that his velocity has shown a similar drop the past few seasons. In 2006, his average fastball velocity was 94.8 mph while last year it was 91.9, a significant drop.

Rodriguez himself claims that the velocity drop last year was due to his adding a changeup. He intentionally threw his fastball with less velocity in order to keep his changeup delivery consistent. Furthermore, Rodriguez claims that he has mastered the changeup and that the delivery is no longer an issue.

Now, it’s one thing to make those kinds of proclamations. It’s another thing entirely for them to stand up to the scrutiny of examining numbers. Did Rodriguez throw harder later in the year than he did at the beginning?

Yes.

According to Dan Brooks’ PitchFX tool, in his outing on April 29, Rodriguez’ average fastball was 91.99 mph while his maximum checked in at 92.6. Fast forward to September and we see a different story. On September 24 his average was 93.67 while his maximum was 95.3. And that is not cherry picking his best September performance. Check any of his outings in the month and you will see average and maximum velocities significantly higher than what he did in April and more in line with what he did in 2006, his top average velocity year for the four seasons in which we have data.

The doubters will then turn to his walk rate. Last year, Rodriguez allowed 4.48 BB/9, a truly bad number. But this doesn’t fit into the declining peripherals storyline, as he posted a 4.54 mark the previous season. Additionally, we see that Rodriguez struggled with walks in April. In 2008, he had six outings in which he gave up two or more walks and four of those came in the first month of the season.

In the second half of last year, Rodriguez had a 2.73 BB/9. And if we just eliminate April, his BB/9 was 3.97, nearly half a walk per game lower than it was for the entire season.

Another factor to consider in addition to working in a new pitch is that Rodriguez suffered from an ankle injury in April.

Now we have the additional knowledge that Rodriguez will be pitching in the National League in 2009. He won’t have to face designated hitters, frequently one of the top hitters on an opposing team. And while Rodriguez won’t get to face any pitchers, last year pinch hitters in the National League posted a .229/.317/.345 line. Now, Rodriguez will likely fact the top PH but they will still produce lines inferior to the designated hitters he is used to facing.

Taken all together, there is no sound reason to predict a massive decline for Rodriguez in 2009. Yes, his save numbers will likely take a big hit. But given his age, track record and switch to the National League there is no reason not to slot him as one of the top relievers in the game. While others may back away from Rodriguez, this gives smart fantasy owners a chance to get one of the top relievers in the game at a relative bargain.

The Indians recently signed Kerry Wood to a 2-year deal with a vesting option for a third year. What does this mean for your fantasy team in 2009?

The headline says it all: Wood was excellent last year. He posted a 3.26 ERA, but that came with a 2.32 FIP and a 3.16 tRA* (which translates to a 2.76 ERA). Wood had an excellent 84/18 K/BB ratio in 66 innings, and allowed a .331 BABIP, which is likely to regress. Wood did benefit from a lower-than-normal home run rate, as only 6.2% of his fly balls became homers, a number that will likely be higher in 2009.

Wood’s statistics also may suffer from a switch from the National League over to the American League. However, Wood was so fantastic in 2008 that his ERA should remain low once again in 09, even in the more difficult league. Furthermore, Wood will be locked in to closer duties on what should be a very good Indians team, thus getting him a lot of save opportunities.

The one knock with Wood is his fragility. There’s no denying his injury history, and no one knows how he’ll hold up as a reliever for a second straight year. However, Wood did manage 66 innings in 2008 and escaped the season virtually unscathed. Wood’s injury concerns may be overblown by other people in your league, perhaps driving his value downward.

Wood looks like he’ll be a solid value in fantasy leagues, available after the top tier of closers have been taken. He should rack up saves as well as strikeouts, and should help you in ERA and WHIP as well. You will have to be vigilant about any injury concerns, and you might be well advised to pick up Wood’s likely replacement (probably Jensen Lewis) at the first sign of an injury. If you are able to do that, you minimize the damage that a Wood injury would inflict upon your team, while reaping the benefits that a healthy Kerry Wood will bring.

Kerry Wood is a good bet to provide excellent value for you, and finding closers at a value price is one of the most important skills a fantasy player can have.

With veteran Trevor Hoffman possibly ending his 16-year relationship with the San Diego Padres, the familiar late-game tune of AC/DC’s “Hell’s Bells” may no longer blare through the speakers at Petco Park. However, another Bell might step into the all-time save leader’s role: Heath Bell (may I suggest Metallica’s “For Whom The Bell Tolls”?) The 31 year-old had to wait an awfully long time to get his shot in the majors, but he has done excellent work for the Fathers over the past two seasons.

Bell was originally selected by the Tampa Bay (then) Devil Rays in the 69th round of the 1997 draft. Suffice it to say, the 1583rd pick in the draft was not considered much of a prospect at the time. The hefty right-hander never signed on the dotted line with Tampa, and he went undrafted the following June. Bell was eventually scooped up by the New York Mets.

Despite his lack of scouting support, Bell often dominated in the minor leagues. In 468.1 frames, he whiffed 10.4 batters per nine innings, while issuing a solid 2.5 BB/9. Despite the more than 4-to-1 K/BB ratio, the 6-3, 240 pounder did not make his Queens debut until 2004, at the age of 26. In 24.1 innings for the Mets that season, Bell struck out 27 and surrendered 6 free passes.

The next two seasons, Bell would dominate the International League while shuttling back and forth between Norfolk and New York. His peripherals were excellent (78/24 K/BB in 83.2 combined innings with the Mets), but Bell was the recipient of some insanely poor luck on balls put in play: his BABIP was .374 in 2005 and an astronomical .394 in 2006. With every hitter turning into Ted Williams when the ball was put in play, Bell’s ERA was well over five during ’05 and ’06.

Apparently feeling that Bell was lousy as opposed to unlucky, the Mets shipped Heath (along with lefty Royce Ring) to the Padres for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson following the 2006 season.

Finally liberated, Bell would post one of the better relief seasons in the game in 2007. Shouldering a very heavy workload (appearing in 81 games and tossing 93.2 innings), Bell posted a 2.50 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Using a mid-90’s heater and a low 80’s slider, Bell punched out 9.8 batters per nine innings and walked 2.88. Bell led all relievers in innings pitched and appeared in the 6th-most games. His 3.47 WPA ranked 6th among all relievers, sandwiched between Joakim Soria and newly-minted Met Francisco Rodriguez.

Bell’s 2008 season wasn’t as dominant, though he still turned in another quality campaign. With 8.19 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9, Bell posted a 3.34 FIP. His fastball usage increased from 64% to 72%, but the offering lost over a tick in terms of speed (down to 93.4 MPH). His Contact% increased from 75.4% in ’07 to 79.5% in ’08, suggesting that his stuff was down a bit compared to his crazy 2007 season.

After his frequent usage in 2007 and more heavy lifting during the first half of the ’08 season (46 G, 50.1 IP during the first half), Bell seemed to tire down the stretch. After posting a 42/13 K/BB ratio before the All-Star break, the Oceanside, California native struggled with his control late in the season (29/15 K/BB, 19 R in 27.2 IP during the second half). Bell’s heater peaked at 94.4 MPH during June, but he was down to 92.3 MPH by September.

Take a look at Bell’s pitch F/X data from 2007 compared to 2008:

2007

Fastball: -4.3 X, 9.36 Z
Slider: 5.34 X, -2.69 Z

2008

Fastball: -1.32 X, 9.44 Z
Slider: 4.22 X, -1.91 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

In addition to a drop in speed, Bell’s fastball lost about 3 inches of horizontal movement, meaning the pitch was not tailing in on right-handers nearly as much. His slider also wasn’t quite as sharp, with less break away from righties and less “tilt” down in the zone. Perhaps it was just a blip on the radar or the product of inherently small samples when dealing with relievers, but Bell went from stifling righties in ’07 (.157/.216/.203) to giving up a good deal of extra base hits against them in 2008 (.254/.307/.435).

Bell may well be in line to take over for Hoffman in San Diego, and he has produced one otherworldly season followed by another impressive showing in 2008. However, there are some danger signs here: Bell has tossed a combined 171.2 innings over the past two seasons, as strenuous a workload as any reliever has faced. His strikeout rate took a pretty large dip, down about 1.6 per nine innings, and his fastball lost both speed and movement. Perhaps an offseason of rest will help abate some of these trends, but it seems possible that Bell’s work over the past two years will go down as the highlight of his career.

As is, Bell is still a pretty good reliever. Just don’t expect the 2007 version to come trotting out of that bullpen gate, no matter what tune he settles on as his ninth-inning ditty.