For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: ho-hum. Mo has yet to be scored on in seven frames, punching out 8 without issuing a walk. Interestingly (though probably not relevant at all, given the results), Rivera’s scarcely used fastball and bread-and-butter cutter are both down velocity-wise, with the cutter coming in at 90.7 MPH (92.8 in 2008) and the fastball at 91.9 MPH (93.1 MPH in ’08).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: Papelbon is 4-for-4 in save ops to begin the year, though he has had some slight problems in locating his pitches (47.6% of his pitches have been in the strike zone, compared to a 54.8% career average).

Kerry Wood, Indians: Woody hasn’t received a whole lot of work thus far, tossing 4.1 frames. David DeJeus got to him for a two-run HR on Tuesday, Wood’s last appearance.

Joakim Soria, Royals: Soria has been his normal beastly self in the early going, with five saves and eight K’s in 5 IP. Soria has used his wicked low-70’s curveball 24.1% of the time thus far, compared to about 10% in previous years. Perhaps he got bored dominating hitters with his fastball. Or slider. Or changeup..

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: Jenks has received four innings of work, and hasn’t gotten into a game since April 16th. Somewhere, he’s glaring at Bartolo Colon and Jose Contreras.

Joe Nathan, Twins: Like Rivera, Nathan just marches along, posting zero’s near every time he takes the hill. He has surrendered one run in five frames, with three saves to his ledger.

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics: Joey Devine underwent Tommy John surgery this past week, eliminating the main competition for the gig. So far, so good for Ziegler: his submarining splendor has generated groundballs at a 68% clip, though he’s walked four in nine frames.

Brandon Morrow, Mariners: He’s getting the hang of this: since getting roped for 3 runs against the Twins on April 7th, Morrow has tossed five scoreless frames, with seven whiffs and 3 walks. Meanwhile, Chris Jakubauskas (who most baseball fans wouldn’t know from Chewbacca) was torched for 10 hits and 6 runs in 3.1 frames last night in a starting role.

Brian Fuentes, Angels: Fuentes is off to a false start in LA, with a -0.45 WPA and decreased fastball velocity. Just 42.9% of his pitches thrown have crossed the plate.

Frank Francisco, Rangers: Francisco has shot out of the gate dealing, with a 7/1 K/BB ratio and nary a run allowed in 7 innings. It’s extremely early, but Francisco ranks 2nd among all closers in WPA, at +0.84.

Watch Your Back

B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays: the pain continues for Ryan, who coughed up a long ball to Texas’ Michael Young last evening. His tally for the year: 5.2 IP, 8 runs and a 4/5 K/BB ratio.

George Sherrill, Orioles: Chris Ray hasn’t lit the world on fire either, but Sherrill has given up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5.1 innings. Ultimately, he’s a good middle man miscast in a late-inning role: CHONE projects a FIP in the range of four.

Troy Percival, Rays: Percival is another guy who holds the closer’s role due mostly to its more predictable usage patterns, and putting him there opens up Joe Maddon’s ability to deploy J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler whenever he so chooses. Case in point: Percival has chucked just 3.2 innings so far. Howell has 7, Balfour 4.1 and Wheeler 5.2.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers: Rodney needs only to peer over his shoulder at Ryan Perry or check a Toledo Mud Hens box score for “Zumaya” to know that his job security ain’t the greatest. To his credit, Rodney has gotten ahead 0-1 or induced early contact often so far, with a first-pitch strike percentage of 77.3 (57.8% major league average).

Let’s take a look at the early season performances of the bullpen rock stars, the closers. For the purposes of this “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies: “Lights Out” remains perfect in save situations, though he’s surrendered 3 runs and two bombs in five innings. Lidge was due for some regression in the tater department: his HR/FB% was just 3.9 in 2008. Odds are, he’ll post a FIP in the low-three’s as a few more homers leave the park and will be labeled a “disappointment” despite little change in his actual skill level.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets:

Jerry Manuel, forward thinker:

“We have, as an industry, somewhat boxed ourselves into making people believe that, ‘If it’s not that [save] situation, I don’t do well,'” Manuel said. “But the game is still on the line. That’s the bottom line. And that’s what we — especially as the team we are in New York — we have to understand that. It’s about the win, and not the statistic.” (Mets.com, via Rotoworld)

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: Big John is 3-for-3 to start the season, with 5 punchouts and no walks in 4 frames. His upper-90’s cheddar and nasty slider give him the equipment to dominate.

Matt Capps, Pirates: Capps (apparently healthy after a shoulder injury in 2008) is an odd duck as a late-inning reliever: he throws hard and relies heavily on his heat, but he gets the job done more with location (career 1.36 BB/9) than sheer force (6.7 K/9). Capps has converted both save opportunities thus far.

Heath Bell, Padres: The Padres do as good a job as anyone in procuring cheap, effective bullpen help, and they continue to go that route. Take a look at the current relief corps: literally everyone outside of Bell, Cla Meredith (both also acquired in lower-level trades) and Edwin Moreno was not in the organization as of a couple months ago. So far, so good for Heath: he’s racked up four saves in four chances.

In Control

Mike Gonzalez, Braves: Gonzo’s beginning his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, and is 1-for-2 in save ops thus far.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins: He’s working his way back from a strained right rotator cuff, and is also one for two in picking up the save. Lindstrom doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d think he would, given the upper-90’s velocity (career 7.62 K/9).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg clearly plays second-fiddle to Carlos Marmol in talent level, but the erstwhile Marlin will rack up the glory stat for one of the National League’s strongest clubs. He’s off to a turbulent start (6/5 K/BB in 4 IP).

Francisco Cordero, Reds: After a macabre spring, Cincy’s good-but-overcompensated stopper has pitched three scoreless frames, with 4 K’s and no walks.

Jose Valverde, Astros: Valverde has yet to get a save op, as the Houston Astros trot out a “you mean he’s still around?”-quality back of the rotation.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks: With little fanfare, Qualls posted a 3.02 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate to root out good or bad luck on flyballs) in 2008. That bested Valverde (3.49), the man for whom he was traded prior to the ’08 season, by nearly half a run.

Brian Wilson, Giants: Wilson is a high-octane hurler, punching out 9.67 batters per nine innings in 2008 while also generating grounders at a 51.7% clip. Can his control take a step forward? Stay tuned.

Watch Your Back

Joel Hanrahan, Nationals: Joel hasn’t had a save chance yet, what with the Nats laying the groundwork for a quick fall into irrelevance in 2009. He’s whiffed over 9 batters per nine innings in his career, but Hanrahan’s helter-skelter control (5.31 BB/9) will have Manny Acta and fantasy owners reaching for the Tums on a regular basis.

Carlos Villanueva, Brewers: Villanueva is simply keeping the seat warm for Trevor Hoffman (oblique injury). “Hell’s Bells” will soon blare at Miller Park, but the extreme flyball act might not work as well outside of Petco.

Jason Motte/Ryan Franklin/Kyle McClellan/Denys Reyes, Cardinals: Motte got off on the wrong foot opening day, surrendering the lead to the Pirates and apparently losing the confidence of Tony La Russa. Motte still looks like the best man for the job, but it’s anyone’s guess as to who enters the next time the Cards have a lead in the late innings.

Huston Street, Rockies: Street has given up 6 hits and 3 runs in 2.2 innings so far. Manny Corpas (and possibly Taylor Buchholz when he returns from an elbow injury) could continue to remain in the picture.

Let’s take a look at the early season performances of the bullpen rock stars, the closers. For the purposes of this “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: Mo shall throw a cutter, and you shall not hit it. Rivera has only gotten one save and two frames of work thus far, but the 40 year-old wonder remains damn-near untouchable.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: The Angels smacked Papelbon on April 11th (Torii Hunter took him deep), but there’s nothing to worry about here.

Kerry Wood, Indians: Woody hasn’t had much action with the Tribe off to a false start, but he’s coming off a season in which he posted a 4.67 K/BB ratio and a 2.32 FIP.

Joakim Soria, Royals: The Mexicutioner won’t post a 1.60 ERA again (his BABIP was a Tony Pena Jr.-esque .215 in ’08), but his filthy four-pitch mix makes him one of the best (and perhaps most overqualified) relievers in the game.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: Jenks has certainly become a different sort of hurler over the past few seasons; whether that’s for the best remains to be seen. The Royals got to him on April 9th, but he converted another opportunity versus the club on the 7th and blanked the Twins on the 12th.

Joe Nathan, Twins: How many people realize that Nathan hasn’t posted a K/BB of less than four since 2004, and that his 2.79 FIP in 2008 was his highest mark since his last year in a Giants uniform (2003)?

In Control

George Sherrill, Orioles: Sherrill is 3-for-3 in save situations to start the year, through he’ll have to contend with rehabilitated flame-thrower Chris Ray throughout the season.

Brad Ziegler, Athletics: The generic starter-turned submariner is 2-for-3 in save situations for the year, but he won’t have to worry about Joey Devine (elbow, 60-day DL) any time soon.

Brandon Morrow: Morrow’s move to the bullpen has certainly spurred some lively debate. He’s off to a bit of a rough start (4/5 K/BB in 2.2 IP) and David Aardsma has snatched up a couple saves, but the job is supposed to be there for the former Cal star. In other disappointing news, top prospect Philip Aumont was also moved to the ‘pen. At this rate, the 2010 rotation will consist of Felix Hernandez and “staff.”

Brian Fuentes, Angels: Fuentes is 2-for-3 in save ops thus far, with 6 hits and 4 runs allowed. The former Rockie was quite good last season, but the 2.73 ERA is pushing it: his HR/FB rate was just 4.5% (the average is around 10-11%). Fuentes’ velocity has been down, for whatever that’s worth in 3 innings of work (89.8 MPH on the fastball in ’09, 91.6 MPH in ’08).

Frank Francisco, Rangers: Francisco whiffed 11.79 per nine in ’08 with a 3.18 FIP, but his control does come and go, not the best tendency for a high-leverage reliever. He’s the best that Texas has to offer, but his leash might not be as long as it should be with Eddie Guardado and C.J. Wilson lurking around.

Watch Your Back

Troy Percival, Rays: Between Percy’s chronic back and hamstring issues as well as Joe Maddon’s flexibility in using his best relievers in the most crucial situations (that could be a save situation, or not), the burly veteran isn’t guaranteed much.

B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays: Ryan has looked downright awkward to begin the ’09 season: he used to sit 90-91 with his heater and snap off wicked mid-80’s sliders, but the herky-jerky lefty is averaging just 88 MPH through three appearances. The role is his for now, but the Jays do possess a deep ‘pen.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers: Rodney will get the call in the 9th for now, having usurped Brandon Lyon. Still, he’s Fernando Rodney, he of a career 4.51 BB/9. He looks like he should dominate with that gas/changeup combo, but he just doesn’t. ’08 first-rounder Ryan Perry looms in the background.

Imagine being hired at an entry level position for a company. Then, imagine becoming CEO of that company six months later.

Okay, so the ultra-aggressive promotions of ’07 and ’08 bonus babies Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry aren’t quite at that level of expedition, but it’s close. Desperate to infuse the major league club with any talent capable of avoiding a Charlie Brown-like fate on the mound (or a Kenny Rogers-type fate, for that matter), Detroit has called upon its most recently sowed farm products.

Porcello, 20, created quite the buzz during the summer of 2007. A 6-5, 195 pounder with an unusually deep mix of pitches, Porcello committed to North Carolina and was considered an awfully difficult sign. The lanky right-hander was often billed as the best prep pitching prospect since Josh Beckett, and his scouting reports were positively glowing:

“He’s long, lean, athletic and projectable with a clean delivery. His fastball sits at 93-95, touching 98. He holds his velocity deep into outings. He throws a tight curveball at 74-76 and a harder, sharp-breaking slider at 80-82. He shows feel for his changeup. He can spot his fastball to both sides of the plate, and mixes his pitches effectively.” (Baseball America’s 2007 draft coverage)

The luxury price tag and strong Tar Heel ties caused 26 teams to pass on Porcello, but the Tigers stepped up and took the best available talent, price tag be damned. Detroit eventually signed him to a $7 million major league contract, including a nearly $3.6 million bonus.

Porcello made his debut at High-A Lakeland in the Florida State League in 2008. As a teenager, he posted rates of 5.18 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9, with a 3.83 FIP in 125 innings pitched. In most cases, one might be justifiably skeptical of a highly-touted hurler who misses so few bats. However, Porcello exhibited control far beyond his years while showing extreme worm-killing tendencies (64.1 GB%).

In addition, Baseball America noted in its prospect handbook that the Tigers had Porcello on a pitch count, allowing no more than 75 tosses per game. Porcello can touch the mid-to-high-90’s with his four-seam fastball and was known to rip off some nasty sliders in high school (Detroit scrapped the pitch, at least for now). But, he focused on efficiency in ’08, with a low-90’s sinker, a 12-to-6 curve and a plus changeup as his weapons of choice. BA compared Porcello’s overall package to that of Roy Halladay, the dean of controlled, groundballing productivity.

While Porcello easily ranked as Detroit’s top prospect, fireballing right-hander Ryan Perry ranks second on most lists. Popped out of Arizona with the 21st overall pick in the 2008 draft, Perry’s claim to fame is a searing, 97-100 MPH fastball that gets on hitters in a flash. Teaming with fellow ’08 first-rounder Daniel Schlereth (Diamondbacks), Perry short-circuited radar guns and supplemented the heat with an occasionally deadly high-80’s slider. He made a brief cameo last summer between rookie ball and Lakeland, posting a 16/7 K/BB in 13.2 innings.

Perry’s command is not always ideal, which BA claims kept him from developing into a consistent starter at Arizona. However, as a ‘pen arm, he could quickly claim a prominent role with the Tigers. Detroit’s bullpen is essentially a wasteland of decent middle men, an excommunicated starter (Nate Robertson) and reclamation projects (Juan Rincon is still pitching?). Brandon Lyon is a serviceable arm, but he’s a late-inning reliever in name only. Joel Zumaya is baseball’s equivalent of a busted Lamborghini. Fernando Rodney’s level of arson is matched only by former teammate-turned-ridiculously-priced Royal Kyle Farnsworth. Suffice it to say, there’s opportunity here.

It’s nearly impossible to say how quickly Detroit’s top two prospects will acclimate themselves to the major league level. After all, Porcello was getting ready for the prom this time two years ago, and Perry has all of 14 frames of pro pitching to his name. Will sending Porcello and Perry’s development clocks into turbo-drive pay off? Stay tuned.

Seattle Mariners’ right-hander Brandon Morrow has endured a rather bizarre professional career to this point. A high-octane starter at Cal, Morrow was selected 5th overall by the M’s in the 2006 amateur draft. Baseball America dubbed him “owner of perhaps the best pure arm in the draft”, noting his ability to sit in the mid-90’s with his heat while supplementing it with a sharp mid-80’s slider and a work-in-progress changeup.

In most organizations, such a talent would have been sent to A-Ball in order to develop those secondary offerings and gradually build the arm strength and stamina necessary to become a complete starting pitcher. However, with the always inscrutable Bill Bavasi running the show, Morrow scarcely saw the minors at all. Rather, he was pigeonholed in the major league bullpen to begin the 2007 season.

The move was about as enlightened as giving the Mariner Moose an on-field ATV. The 22 year-old did what you would expect a green-as-grass rookie to do when shoved to the bigs: he pumped 95 MPH fastball after fastball (thrown 80% of the time), while displaying control that only Bob Uecker could spin-doctor. In 63.1 frames, Morrow managed to whiff 9.38 batters per nine on the basis of his immense raw talent, but he handed out free passes like Aquafina, with 7.11 BB/9.

The 6-3, 180 pounder was again relegated to relief work to begin the 2008 campaign. In 36.2 frames out of the ‘pen, Morrow singed opposing batters with 47 K’s (11.5 per nine), with modest improvement in the walk department (15, or 3.7 BB/9). Just over two years after expending such a high draft pick on Morrow and then devaluing their asset by rushing him, the M’s decided to transition the former Golden Bear ace to the rotation in early August. Morrow was sent to AAA Tacoma to get stretched out, where he punched out 10.03 batters per nine with 4.24 BB/9.

Recalled in early September, Morrow made five starts for Seattle down the stretch. The results were uneven, but occasionally dazzling. He gave up six earned runs versus offensive weaklings Oakland and Kansas City, but also turned in an absolute gem versus the Yankees on September 5th (7.2 IP, 1 H, 1R, 3BB, 8K) in which he showcased a devastating arsenal. Overall, Morrow the starter struck out a batter per inning (28 K in 28 IP), while showing characteristic control hiccups (19 BB).

The Mariners (now mercifully under the care of player development guru Jack Zduriencik) seemed intent on making Morrow a permanent member of the rotation in 2009, but circumstances have changed. After dealing with forearm tightness earlier this spring, Morrow has claimed to be more comfortable in the ‘pen, and the M’s will apparently acquiesce.

Whether this is a good thing for the long-term prospects of the franchise is certainly debatable: even the most talented, highly-leveraged relievers don’t produce the same level of value as a starter does (a large quantity of good innings trumps a small quantity of great frames). However, between Morrow’s forearm issues, diabetic condition and comfort in the bullpen, perhaps the choice was not so straightforward.

Morrow obviously becomes the top man in a bullpen that figures to be a consortium of trade acquisitions, waiver claims and home-grown hopefuls. His wicked fastball/slider combo should sufficiently eviscerate right-handers, and the development of a reliable third offering (he threw a splitter/changeup about 10% of the time in ’08) becomes less of an issue while only having to deal with lefties one time through the order. Morrow still has some kinks to work out in terms of catching the plate on a more regular basis, but he comes equipped with the tools to shipwreck opposing batters in the late innings.

The Royals picked Joakim Soria in the Rule 5 draft from the Padres. Two days later he pitched a perfect game in the Mexican League. Soria has a starting pitcher’s repertoire and is one of the few closers to throw four pitches. He will not blow you away with his fastball, but Soria has very good command and he puts batters away with his curve.

FanGraphs shows Soria throwing his curve just under 10 percent of the time. ESPN shows Soria throwing his hook 25 percent of the time when he gets to two strikes on a batter. Overall, opponents hit just .048 against Soria’s deuce.

Soria had nearly a 3.5:1 SO/BB ratio last year. He also did a fine job of keeping the ball in the park, as he allowed only five home runs in 67.1 innings. Batters swung at just 61.7 percent of pitches by Soria in the strike zone, a figure that ranked 19th among all relievers last year. Additionally, he induced swings on balls outside the zone 27.4 percent of the time.

But, much like Mariano Rivera, there are warning signs around Soria, too. He had a microscopic .215 BABIP last year. He also had an 89.5 percent strand rate. Not surprisingly, Soria’s FIP was 3.25 or more than twice his regular ERA. None of these should be dismissed lightly.

Still, on the plus side of the ledger we have Soria’s age (he’ll turn 25 in May), command, repertoire, ability to keep the ball in the park and lack of platoon split. In his brief career, lefties have a .167/.242/.255 line against Soria. So if you want a relief pitcher in the first 10 rounds, the Royals closer is a relative bargain with an ADP of 97.

After three straight seasons of declining saves totals, Mariano Rivera rebounded to post 39 in 2009, his highest total since he notched 43 in 2005. Rivera is a wonder, but he faces long odds to match his saves total from last year in 2009. Trevor Hoffman is the only pitcher in MLB history to post 39 or more saves at age 39 (or above), the age Rivera will be this season.

Yet the mock draft crowd has faith in Rivera, making him on average the fifth reliever picked in drafts. He has an ADP of 83, making him a late-seventh-round pick. Assuming you want a reliever at that spot, is Rivera a good choice?

There has been no drop-off in velocity with his famous cutter and Rivera has been able to maintain excellent K/9 numbers.

But there are three factors that helped Rivera to his outstanding 2008 season, when he was the second-best reliever in the game behind Francisco Rodriguez. First, Rivera had a .232 BABIP, over 100 points lower than he did in 2007. Second, he posted the lowest walk rate of his career with a 0.76 BB/9 mark. And third, Rivera had the highest strand rate of his career with an 87.6 percent LOB%.

Rivera has had an ERA under two in five of the last six years. There is no reason to expect him to fall off a cliff in 2009. But given his age and his incredible peripherals last season, there is not much reason to expect a repeat of 2008, either. The mock drafters are knocking him down but I would suggest not far enough.

Instead of Rivera in the seventh round, why not wait a round and take Joakim Soria, he of the 97 ADP? Or wait two rounds and take Jose Valverde, he of the back-to-back 40-save seasons. These two pitchers do not have the name recognition of Rivera, but are likely to put up comparable or better seasons as the venerable Yankees closer.

The ninth inning has been a tumultuous time for St. Louis Cardinals fans in recent years – with the 2008 season being no different. Three players saved seven or more games last year: starter-turned-reliever Ryan Franklin (3.55 ERA) with 17, former closer Jason Isringhausen (5.70) with 12 and rookie Chris Perez (3.46) with seven. Although he appeared in 41 games, Perez is still a rookie for 2009 in most people’s eyes because he did not surpass the magical 50 IP mark.

Isringhausen, now with Tampa Bay, was the Cardinals go-to guy for much of his seven seasons in St. Louis and he saved 217 games. However, he was never a truly dominating closer and he blew 38 save opportunities his seven seasons. Isringhausen also struggled mightily in 2006 and 2008 with a total of 17 blown saves in 62 opportunities. Although Franklin saved 17 games in 2008, he is not considered the long-term solution given his average stuff, eight blown saves last year and age (36).

The future likely belongs to former college closer Perez, although manager Tony LaRussa is not going to entrust a young pitcher in such a vital position without absolute proof that he is the best man for the job. Perez had a solid debut season with 34 hits allowed in 41.2 innings of work. He posted a respectable strikeout rate at 9.07 K/9 but he struggled with his control (which has been the knock on him) by posting a rate of 4.75 BB/9. Perez relied heavily on two pitches out of the pen: a fastball that averaged 95 mph, and a slider.

So far this spring, he has allowed three runs in five innings, with three strikeouts and three walks. Fellow rookie Jason Motte – another hard-throwing reliever albeit with less polish – has allowed just one earned run in five innings but also has seven strikeouts and no walks. Perez has one save on the spring, while Motte, a 26-year-old converted catcher, has two. It’s clear that Perez is not going to be handed the closer’s role this April when teams break camp. He has plenty of competition and LaRussa could simply go with a closer-by-committee or simply call on the pitcher with the hot hand – or play match-ups.

Over time, though, Perez should be the favorite to earn saves in St. Louis for the long haul. In 2009, expect a 3.50 ERA with 10-12 saves in 65 innings pitched with about 30 walks and 70 strikeouts. If he does worm his way into a more regular role as the team’s closer, be prepared to snap him up.

With southpaw Brian Fuentes defecting to the Angels via free agency, the Colorado Rockies are left without a go-to guy in the ninth inning for the first time in a few seasons. Not that this is necessarily the end of days for the club: as Fuentes (a 25th-round pick by the Mariners back in 1995) himself showed, closers are made, not born. With relief pitching being a volatile practice (save for cutter demigod Mariano Rivera), paying through the nose for one guy to toss 70-odd innings is not an advisable strategy.

The Rockies will now choose between two candidates to rack up the glory stat in 2009: home-grown righty Manny Corpas and trade acquisition Huston Street. Depending upon the health of his elbow, born-again reliever Taylor Buchholz may also factor into the picture at some point.

Signed out of Panama in 1999, Corpas threw nearly 80 innings for the Rockies in each of the past two seasons. While the surface results might appear divergent (he posted a sparkling 2.08 ERA in ’07 and a 4.52 mark in ’08), the underlying numbers were pretty similar. Corpas was neither the relief ace of 2007 nor the Farnsworthian gas can of 2008: his FIP was 3.60 in ’07 (with 6.69 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9) and 3.96 in ’08, as his strikeout and walk rates trended a bit south (5.65 K/9, 2.6 BB/9) and his GB% went from 57.4% to 49.6%.

The main difference? Corpas posted a .260 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) in 2007, but regression to the mean struck back nastily in ’08 (.330 BABIP). Truth be told, Corpas is probably more middle reliever than high-leverage stopper. His low-90’s fastball (his average velocity fell from 93.1 MPH in ’07 to 91.7 MPH in ’08) and 80 MPH slider don’t fool a whole lot of batters.

Picked up in the Matt Holliday deal, Street sort of comes with the Proven Closer (TM) tag, as he has racked up 94 saves in his career. An absolute beast at the University of Texas, Street has fallen into the realm of merely very good as a professional. With a career 2.90 FIP, 9.07 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, the near-side-arming slider specialist would appear to be the front man for the job, but recent reports indicate that Corpas holds the edge. Street is dealing with a sore quadriceps muscle after experiencing elbow issues in the past, and he is coming off of his worst year in the big leagues. He whiffed 8.87 batters per nine, but control hiccups (3.47 BB/9) led to a 3.47 FIP and a demotion behind submariner Brad Ziegler in Oakland.

Buchholz had rejuvenated his career out of the ‘pen, but an elbow sprain will sideline him for at least the beginning of the 2009 season. Buchholz (no relation to Clay) was once a hot-shot prospect in the Phillies system. He was considered by the Astros to be a major component of the November 2003 trade that sent Billy Wagner to Philadelphia. Taylor looked like the quintessential pitching prospect, standing 6-4, 220 pounds and throwing gas, but Buchholz was hit hard and often as an Astro, both in the majors (5.18 FIP in 2006) and in AAA (his career ERA at the level is 5.02).

The Rockies snagged Buchholz in a December 2006 trade that sent ticking time bomb Jason Jennings to the Astros. After a run of poor starts in 2007 (43.2 IP, 5.98 ERA), Colorado decided to try Buchholz’s low-90’s heat and hard curveball out of the bullpen, and the results have been impressive. He spent the entire ’08 campaign in relief, posting rates of 7.6 K/9 and 2.44 BB/9. His 2.17 ERA was misleading- Buchholz did have plenty of good fortune on balls in play (.234 BABIP) and had a lower HR/FB rate- but his stuff and peripherals suggest that he could be a solid bullpen cog.

As a member of the Angels organization, right-hander Bobby Jenks was something of a mythological figure. The gargantuan 6-3, 280 pounder, selected in the 5th round of the 2000 amateur draft, often had radar guns begging for mercy as he sat in the upper-90’s and hit triple-digits on occasion. With that hopping heater, Jenks mauled minor league hitters (9.4 K/9), but his control (an astounding 6.01 BB/9) and temperament left much to be desired.

Despite Jenks’ gifts, the Angels eventually grew tired of the flame-thrower’s antics and punted him off the 40-man roster in December of 2004. The White Sox stepped up and claimed the volatile-but-talented arm, and the club has been rewarded handsomely for its leap of faith.

Jenks burst onto the scene during Chicago’s World Series run in 2005, punching out 11.44 batters per nine innings in 39.1 frames. His control (3.43 BB/9) was just fair, but he managed a 2.69 FIP while showing off a 97 MPH fastball as well as two hard breaking balls (an 88 MPH slider and an 83.5 MPH curve).

The portly righty displayed many of the same attributes in 2006. In 69.2 innings, Jenks used a slightly-less searing 95.8 MPH heater and his hard breaking stuff to post rates of 10.33 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. Despite the occasional bouts of wildness, Jenks used his ability to miss bats and a newfound tendency to keep the ball on the ground (his GB% improved from 44.6% in ’05 to 58.8% in ’06) to compile a 3.20 FIP.

After two seasons of dominating hitters and allowing a few too many free passes, Jenks performed like a different sort of hurler in 2007. His K rate fell precipitously, from over 10 K/9 down to 7.75. However, he cut his walk rate by more than half (1.8 BB/9) and continued to burn worms (53.8 GB%). Jenks’ blistering upper-90’s cheese was now sitting in the 94 MPH range. The shape of his production was different, but Jenks posted the best K/BB ratio (4.31) and FIP (2.56) of his career.

2008 continued Bobby’s trend of missing fewer bats. A few short years after posting a double-digit whiff rate, Jenks struck out just 5.55 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.48 per nine. His groundball rate (57.6%) remained quite high and his FIP was still a fair 3.41, but clearly the present version of Jenks is not the same fire-breathing mountain man that was on display in Los Angeles’ farm system or in Chicago during his early days there. Jenks was once fairly difficult to make contact with, but opposing hitters have progressively had an easier time putting the bat on the ball:

Jenks’ Contact Rate, 2005-2008:
2005: 74.5%
2006: 77.8%
2007: 79.1%
2008: 84.5%

Jenks’ 2008 contact rate was one of the highest among all relievers. Residing close to Bobby were names such as Ryan Franklin, Brian Bass and Franquelis Osoria.

Bobby Jenks’ transformation from flame-throwing folklore to finesse pitching has been fascinating to watch. Chicago’s plus-sized closer has remained effective to this point (his 3.47 WPA in ’08 was a career-best), but it would probably be best to tread cautiously here instead of investing a high pick. Jenks could well remain effective with plus control and groundball tendencies, but his descending strikeout rate and back issues bear watching.