For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies

With 4 taters surrendered in 10.2 IP, Lidge has already served up double the amount of homers in 2009 as he did during the 2008 season. Just as his wacky-low 3.9 HR/FB% from last year was bound to rise, his 28.6 HR/FB% in ’09 will inevitably drop. Attempting to pitch through pain in his right knee, Lidge has seen his fastball velocity dip a few MPH (94.3 in ’08, 92.8 in ’09), while posting a first-pitch strike percentage of just 46.2 (57.7 MLB average).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has K’d 16 hitters in 11.2 frames, while going 7-for-7 in save ops. So far, Rodriguez has attempted to let opponents get themselves out: he’s thrown just 39.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (5th-lowest among relievers). While Rodriguez has walked six, hitters have acquiesced by chasing offerings outside of the zone 33.9% of the time (24.4 MLB average).

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton just keeps on rolling: with an eye-popping 25 K’s in 14 IP, LA’s ninth-inning beast has punched out more batters per nine innings than any other reliever. 8-for-9 in save chances, Broxton holds the third-best WPA among relievers (1.32), and his 63.5% contact rate is fourth-lowest. When opponents aren’t helplessly swinging and missing, they’re chopping the ball into the infield dirt (57.9 GB%).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell has yet to blow a save chance, with 8 saves in 8 opportunities. His 13/2 K/BB ratio in 10.2 IP has led to a 1.31 FIP and a 1.48 WPA that ranks second among all relievers. His mid-90’s gas and low-80’s slider are jamming hitters with great frequency: his IF/FB% is 30 percent.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Arizona’s covert closer has a dominant 14/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings, with a microscopic 0.68 FIP. His groundball rate is just absurd (78.3%), the product of a bushel of swings on outside pitches (his outside swing percentage is 34.6%). With the second-best first-pitch strike percentage among ‘pen arms (79.5%), Qualls is often getting ahead 0-1 or inducing contact on the first offering.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

After starting off the year strong (0 runs in his first 5.2 innings), Capps has gotten crunched in three straight appearances (a combined 7 runs in 2.2 innings), including a 4-run disaster piece against the Brewers on May 4th. Capps will be shut down for a few days with what’s being called a “minor elbow ailment.” The news is disconcerting, given the 25 year-old’s bout with shoulder bursitis last season that cost him about 2 months. Something is off-kilter: normally as precise as any reliever in the majors (with a career BB/9 of 1.48), Capps has issued 4 walks in 8.1 IP.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

After an ugly outing versus the Astros on April 27th (3 R and a loss), Cordero has tossed two scoreless innings. Last week, we noted that Cordero (throwing his mid-90’s fastball nearly three-quarters of the time) has essentially said to hitters, “I’m throwing as hard as I can, now try and hit it.” Thus far, that approach has led to a 2.18 FIP, but his GB% has fallen to 29.6%. Cordero as yet to allow a homer, but flyball tendencies typically don’t fly at Great American Ballpark.

LaTroy Hawkins (Jose Valverde on DL), Astros

Valverde’s calf injury turned out to be more serious than expected, requiring the draining of fluid and a DL stint. In his stead, Hawkins will take on ninth innings duties. Worth noting: Hawkins’ strikeout rates had fallen through the floor in 2006 and 2007 (4.03 and 4.72 K/9, respectively), but that number rebounded to 6.97 in 2008 and sits at 8.53 in 12.2 IP this season. The 36 year-old never lost much fastball velocity during those down years, though he is relying more heavily on a high-80’s slider over the past two seasons.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson has battled his control a bit over his last two appearances, walking 3 in 2.1 IP in two appearances versus the Rockies. While Wilson isn’t known for his fine touch, he’s not a walk-the-yard type, either. Yet, hitters just aren’t swinging at what Wilson offers. Last week, we noted his rapidly decreasing outside-swing% (down to just 13.9% in ’09). Batters are also increasingly laying off pitches over the plate (his Z-Swing% is 57.6%, compared to the 65.7% MLB average). Overall, opponents have offered at just 34.1% of Wilson’s pitches, second-lowest among all relievers. What gives, Giants fans?

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

So, far, so good for Hoffman. He has a 5/0 K/BB ratio and 4 saves in 5 innings. The sample size is too small to glean a whole lot from, but Hoffman (an extreme flyball pitcher) has a 66.7 GB%. Also, he’s decreased the use of his signature changeup for the second straight season, mixing in more sliders in its place.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Lindstrom has four clean appearances since the unmitigated disaster that was his April 24th appearance against the Phillies. Still, his season totals will be feeling the pain for months to come: his FIP is 6.38, and his WPA is -0.41. Such is the life of the reliever: one bad appearance can put a serious damper on your numbers.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel (once off the DL), Nationals

Can we rule out anyone here, really? Collectively, Nats relievers have a macabre -3.24 WPA, worst in the major leagues. Kip Wells (he of a 4/7 K/BB ratio in 9 IP) is the “leader” in the WPA clubhouse, with 0.38. Bring us your busted prospects (Hinckley, Mock), your retreads (Wells, Tavarez), your discarded Fish (Kensing). Where art thou, Joe Beimel? Beimel will probably get a shot once he’s off the DL, by process of elimination.

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Gonzalez has pitched relatively well thus far, with 16 K’s in 9.2 IP. Unfortunately, his .444 BABIP has led to a crappy 4.66 ERA. Gonzo’s control will likely always keep him from being a truly elite reliever, but he’s a solid buy-low candidate.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Gregg just hasn’t located his pitches: with 9 free passes in 12.2 IP and just 41.8 percent of his offerings coming across the dish (10th-worst among relievers), he has a -0.07 WPA and a 5.15 FIP. Luckily for Gregg, his principal competition (Carlos Marmol) has walked 9 batters in his last 4.1 IP while battling a balky knee.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

What in the name of closer facial hair has gotten into Franklin? The historically underpowered 36 year-old has a 10/2 K/BB ratio in 11.1 frames, with 7 saves and nary a run allowed. Throwing a fastball, cutter, curve, change and a splitter, Franklin has never punched out more than 6.89 batters per nine innings (all the way back in 2001 with the M’s), and his career whiff rate sits at 4.89. Color me skeptical, but his 1.30 WPA ranks 4th among relievers.

Huston Street, Rockies

Talk about a bad week: Manny Corpas goes from closer to one false step away from Colorado Springs. Corpas surely hasn’t been a clamp-down reliever, but his FIP (4.02) is considerably better than his 6.75 ERA. When balls put in play are falling for hits at a Ted Williams-like pace (.404 BABIP), you’re going to struggle.

Street, meanwhile, is back in the saddle after a similar demotion in April. His K/BB ratio is strong (12/2 in 11.1 IP), but he’s surrendered 3 homers already, which has led to a 5.56 ERA. Neither one of these guys has been as arson-worthy as they appear at first glance, though both also fall short of qualifying as late-inning assets.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo coughed up his first runs and blown save on the 24th against the Red Sox, the last time he pitched. His FIP is 2.11 for the year, however, and he has yet to give up a walk in 8.1 innings. Nothing to worry about here; it’s a testament to Rivera’s greatness that we’re legitimately surprised any time someone scores on him.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon hasn’t quite been himself this April, with five free passes and a 4.79 FIP thus far (he walked 8 batters all of last year, in 69.1 IP). Cause for concern? Probably not: there aren’t any appreciable differences in his Pitch F/X data.

Kerry Wood, Indians

The Red Sox got good wood off Kerry on the 27th, touching him up for three runs. Cleveland’s new stopper has had little problem missing bats (14 K’s in 8 IP), but he’s given up 6 runs and a pair of homers on the year.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim has been sidelined with shoulder stiffness, driving Royals fans to drink at the prospect of Kyle Farnsworth in the late innings. Need a “Mexicutioner” fix while awaiting Soria’s return? Check out Harry Pavlidis’ interesting two–part series on the positives and negatives of making KC’s closer a member of the starting rotation.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks is four out of four in save ops, with 3 runs allowed in seven frames. Opposing batters are zealously attacking Jenks’ offerings over the plate, swinging at 84.1% of his pitches thrown within the strike zone (65.4% MLB average).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan blew his first save of the season last night against the Rays, allowing a tater to Ben Zobrist. Overall, though, it’s been more of the same for the Twins stopper. He’s gotten ahead of hitters (67.9 first-pitch strike%) and has whiffed 7 batters in 7 innings.

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Ziegler’s wacky low-80’s, submarining heater has flummoxed hitters so far (2 runs in 10.1 frames, with a 74.2 GB%). Perhaps trying to stay ahead of the curve, Ziegler has incorporated a low-70’s changeup into his repertoire more often (thrown 15.9% of the time in ’09, compared to 6.3% last year). Considering that Ziegler often loses the zone versus lefties (career .378 OBP), it can’t hurt.

Brandon Morrow, Mariners

Morrow has dealt with a stiff shoulder recently, and last appeared in a ballgame back on the 23rd against the Rays. David Aardsma has so far walked the tight rope well (2 runs in 8.2 IP, despite 6 walks), but Morrow has little to worry about if he’s physically sound.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes is 4-for-5 in save chances, but he’s been roughed up for 5 runs in seven frames, with his fastball down about two ticks from 2008.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco has owned hitters this April. A perfect 6-for-6 in save chances, Francisco has yet to surrender a run with his low-90’s gas, curve and splitter. He leads all relievers with a 1.53 WPA. While control has been an issue in the past, Francisco has given up just 1 walk in 10.2 IP while posting a first-pitch strike% of 64.1%.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

We profiled B.J. Ryan’s replacement last week, and Downs has kept the ball rolling. With 14 K’s, zero walks and a 69.6 GB% in 10.2 frames, the southpaw has a sparkling 0.84 FIP.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill blew a save against the Rangers on the 24th (2 R and two walks allowed), and he’s given up 5 runs in 8.2 IP so far.

Troy Percival, Rays

Percy has pitched just 5.1 frames on the year, with three K’s and walks apiece. His fastball velocity has dipped into the high-80’s (89.8 MPH), compared to last year’s mark of 91.4 MPH. Quite the change for a closer most remember for his radar-gun breaking cheese as a member of the Angels.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney has been beaten for five runs in 8 innings. He hasn’t blown a save yet and has actually thrown strikes for a change (1 walk), but his job security remains between slim and none.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Last year’s Win Probability Added leader has gotten his 2009 campaign off to an inauspicious start, with a -0.40 WPA in 8.2 innings to date. Dealing with pain in his right knee (surgically repaired prior to that stellar ’08 season), Lidge could he headed to the DL. He has often gotten behind in the count, tossing a first-pitch strike just 46.5% of the time (57.6% MLB average). He hasn’t appeared in a game since April 25th.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez surrendered his first two runs of the year against the Nationals on April 24th, but still picked up a save (he’s four-for-four on the year). Fun Pitch F/X-related tidbit: you could conduct a road sobriety test on the path that K-Rod’s fastball takes. The four-seamer breaks just two inches in on the hands of right-handed batters, compared to the average of 6 inches for righty pitchers.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton blew his first save of the year last night, walking Travis Ishikawa to load the bases and then issuing another free pass to Rich Aurilia to force in a run. Big John ended up getting the W after Bob Howry gave up a pair of runs. Broxton’s control hiccup is of little concern: he has a 5.33 K/BB ratio on the year, and he ranks 5th among relievers in WPA.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps hasn’t seen game action since the 24th, when he took the loss against the Padres after uncharacteristically issuing two walks. Not that it’s a huge concern, but Capps has three walks on the year. To put that into context, he gave up just five in 53.2 frames in 2008.

Heath Bell, Padres

We fretted a little bit during the winter about Bell’s strenuous workload over the 2007-2008 seasons, but Heath has been none the worse for wear in 2009. A perfect 8-for-8 in save ops, Bell has yet to give up a run. Opposing batters are swinging at many of Bell’s offerings thrown out of the strike zone (31.5 Outside Swing%) and are making contact with those pitches off the plate (73.9 Outside-Contact%; the MLB average is 62.2%), a recipe for success.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls has been his typically outstanding self, punching out 12 batters in 8 innings while giving up just one walk. Batters normally beat Qualls’ sinker/slider combo into the ground, but his rate of worm-killers thus far (72.2 GB%) is well above his already-lofty 58.5% career average. His sinker (thrown with 3 inches of vertical movement in 2008) has been even more of a bowling ball in 2009, with just 1.7 inches of vertical movement.

In Control

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero blew his first save on the 27th versus the Astros, walking two and giving up three runs. Cincy’s closer has simply been trying to blow hitters away with his 95 MPH heater, throwing the pitch 73.7% of the time (52% in 2008). As usual, Cordero looks untouchable some outings, while nearly causing Dusty Baker to swallow his tooth pick on the nights where his control disappears.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde suffered a setback, pulling his calf again while attempting to field a ground ball hit back to him (this after an Orlando Hudson come-backer earlier in the week). The Astros placed Valverde on the DL. LaTroy Hawkins will likely get the save opportunities until Jose returns.

Brian Wilson, Giants

The mohawked moundsman had a rough outing on the 26th versus the limping D-Backs (3 runs and a blown save), but on the whole, he’s been productive on the season (2.98 FIP). For whatever reason, opponents just plain are not swinging at whatever pitches that Wilson throws out of the strike zone: his Outside-Swing% against is just 10.6% in 2009, compared to the 24.3% MLB average. Hitters swung at Wilson’s outside offerings at a league average rate in 2007, but did so just 17.1% of the time in 2008 before chopping down that figure in ’09.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman turned in a scoreless inning on the 27th, then converted his first save opportunity as a Brewer the following night. “Hell’s Bells” will be challenged by the less hospitable environs of Miller Park.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

On April 24th, Lindstrom endured a drubbing that his ERA won’t soon forget: he surrendered a whopping 7 earned runs in 0.2 IP. Just take a look at the Win Probability graph for the game- there’s a Wile E. Coyote-style cliff dive in the late innings:

Nationals’ Closer Consortium

Joel Hanrahan’s total lack of strike-zone control (5 walks and a Boeing-level 7.39 FIP) finally cost him the ninth-inning gig, as the Nats will now go with the dreaded “Closer by Committee.” Kip Wells (no, really) and Julian Tavarez are candidates, as are pretty much any other members of the ‘pen. Joe Beimel could be the guy once he returns from the DL, though you’ll want to consider that Beimel’s shiny 2.02 ERA last season came with the benefit of an insane 0.0 HR/FB%. Beimel hasn’t surrendered a big fly since 2007 (and he gave up only 1 that year). Can he possibly keep this up?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Gonzo has rebounded since a rocky beginning to the season, with four scoreless appearances in a row, 8 K’s and 1 walk. The lefty has whiffed 16 batters in 8.1 frames, and his 66% contact rate ranks highly among relievers. Now if only he could catch the plate with a little more regularity..

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Gregg has located just 43.8% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.1% MLB average), which helps explain the five free passes issued in 8 innings. His FIP for the year is 6.06.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Toting a goatee that would make ZZ Top proud, Franklin has converted all 6 save chances, while striking out 9 batters in 9 innings and surrendering nary a run. We remain skeptical, but Franklin has done his job so far.

Manny Corpas, Rockies

Corpas has been scored on in 3 of his past 4 appearances, suffering 2 losses along the way. The near .400 BABIP won’t continue, but Corpas isn’t fooling much of anyone, with a contact rate in the mid-80’s.

Compared to the rest of the three-game series, the match-up on Sunday between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees was fairly unassuming. There were not 27 runs scored collectively and the game did not end in walk-off fashion in extra innings. However, two key players for both organizations’ futures squared off against one another.

Mark Melancon was called into the game for the Yankees in the seventh inning of the game, which was eventually won 4-1 by Boston. The right-handed reliever, making his MLB debut, worked two scoreless innings and allowed just one hit and one walk. He also struck out one batter and hit outfielder Jason Bay with a pitch. Melancon, 24, was originally drafted out of the University of Arizona in the ninth round of the 2006 draft, although he could have been a first-round pick if not for an elbow strain that later required Tommy John surgery. Melancon struggled a bit with his control in his debut (12 of 22 pitches were strikes) but he showed excellent velocity and life on his fastball.

From the other dugout, minor league starter Michael Bowden emerged and also pitched the seventh and eighth innings. He had been recalled from Triple-A before the game to give the relievers some much-needed relief. The right-hander did not allow a run, a walk or a hit over two innings. He stuck out two. Only 22, Bowden was able to mix his plus curveball and fastball very effectively to dominate some very good hitters. In most organizations, he would already be in the starting rotation. In Boston, though, the pitching depth affords him the luxury of polishing his repertoire and approach at the Triple-A level, while also providing valuable insurance for situations like that which occurred on Sunday. Bowden was a supplemental first round selection out of an Illinois high school during the 2005 draft.

Bowden was sent back down to Triple-A after the game on Sunday, making room for veteran shortstop Julio Lugo, who came off the disabled list. Melancon will remain with the Yankees for now, with veteran reliever Brian Bruney on the disabled list. Neither player will likely have a huge impact on their respective clubs in 2009, but both are good bets moving forward for 2010 and beyond: Bowden with the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter and Melancon with closer potential.

Blue Jays lefty B.J. Ryan has gotten his 2009 season off to just about the worst start imaginable. The 33 year-old is doing a pretty good Kyle Farnsworth imitation, with 5 walks, 2 homers and seven runs surrendered in 5.2 innings pitched. Once a power pitcher, Ryan is having trouble cracking 88 MPH with his heater, and his mid-80’s slider has devolved into a low-80’s frisbee.

Not-so-coincidentally, word now comes that Ryan will hit the DL with tightness in his upper back and shoulder (this after Ryan’s elbow went snap, crackle, and pop during the 2007 season).

While Ryan is a well-coffered closer (having inked a 5-year, $47 million pact prior to the 2006 season), his replacement (fellow southpaw Scott Downs) comes with considerably less fanfare.

By the time most players enter their late twenties/early thirties, they are in the latter portion of their peak seasons or have already experienced their career climax. In Downs’ case, his peak to that point had been akin to that of a Kiddy Coaster. At 29, Downs was a vagabond who had been drafted by the Cubs in 1997, traded to the Twins in ’98, pinballed back to Chicago in ’99, only to be dumped in Montreal in 2000 for Rondell White. Cut loose by the now-Nationals in 2004, Downs was a thoroughly forgettable starter with a career 5.30 ERA.

Scooped up by the Blue Jays prior to the 2005 campaign, Downs split his time evenly between the rotation and the ‘pen (26 games, 13 starts) with a 4.33 FIP and a healthy number of grounders (52.6 GB%). His ’06 season (spent almost fully in relief) was a near carbon copy, again with a 4.33 FIP, 7.13 K/9, 3.51 BB/9 and even more carpet-burners (55.6 GB%).

Since then, Downs has taken the groundball act to extremes, cutting his home run rate significantly:

2007: 58 IP, 8.84 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 0.47 HR/9, 59.9 GB%, 3.24 FIP
2008: 70.2 IP, 7.26 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9 65.6 GB%, 3.39 FIP

Utilizing a bowling ball high-80’s sinker that features an incredible amount of tailing action (his fastball moves in on the hands of lefties by over 10 inches; the average for a southpaw is about 6.5 inches) and supplementing the heavy heater with a sweeping mid-70’s curve, Downs has continued the ground assault in 2009. In 9.2 innings, he has punched out 14 batters, while walking none, surrendering 1 run and generating grounders at a 73.7% clip.

Downs doesn’t have the sharpest control, but the second act of his career as a groundballing lefty with enough stuff to fool big league hitters has been fun to watch. The 33 year-old is about to go on the loop-de-loop ride that is major league closerdom. If you can snag Downs, you might want to grab a seat as well.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies: Eric Gagne (wherever he’s rehabbing these days) can breathe a sigh of relief, as Lidge didn’t last near long enough to challenge the goggled wonder’s record of 84 consecutive saves. Regression to the mean is a fickle mistress, and Lidge has already given up 3 taters on the young season (2 all of last year). No pitcher can sustain a 3.9 HR/FB ratio for very long, as “Lights Out” did last season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: K Rod has found his new digs to his liking, striking out nine batters in 5.2 IP. 3 for-3 in save ops without allowing a run, Rodriguez has also seen his fastball velocity (subject of much debate this offseason) bounce back up to 92.8 MPH (91.9 MPH in ’08).

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: Broxton has punched out 11 hitters in 6.2 frames, without walking a batter. He’s four-for-four in save chances, and opponents are making contact against him just 65.1% of the time (80.4% major league average). His approach hasn’t been groundbreaking: Broxton has reared back and fired a searing 97.6 MPH heater on nearly 90% of his pitches. It’s just that no one can hit the darned thing.

Matt Capps, Pirates: The Mad Capper is 5-for-5 in save ops thus far, showcasing his typically stellar control. He has yet to issue a free pass, and has thrown a first-pitch strike 75% of the time.

Heath Bell, Padres: The leader in the closer clubhouse with 0.90 WPA, Bell has converted 7 saves for the Padres in the early going.

In Control

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins: After suffering a shoulder injury during the spring, Lindstrom hasn’t quite been his usual self, throwing his fastball 95 MPH instead of 97 while cutting his slider usage in half. Looking at his Pitch F/X data, Lindstrom’s heater has the same amount of horizontal movement (or lack thereof), tailing in 3.1 inches to righthanded batters (3.2 in 2008; the average for a righty is about 6 inches), while he has slightly less vertical movement as well (8.1 inches, compared to 8.8 in 2008).

Francisco Cordero, Reds: Cordero has racked up 6 saves already, punching out 6 batters while doing his usual tight rope act (4 walks).

Jose Valverde, Astros: Valverde has a bruised ankle and a tight calf after Orlando Hudson hit one back up the middle that smacked the bespectacled, emotional reliever Tuesday night (he should be just fine). Valverde has surrendered 3 runs in 6 innings so far.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks: Qualls has four saves in five chances, as his low-90’s heat/high-80’s slider mix has generated plenty of worm-burners (66.7 GB%).

Brian Wilson, Giants: [insert obligatory Beach Boys reference here]. Wilson has whiffed 8 batters in 6.2 innings, surrendering one run. His fastball has had even more hop thus far, coming in at 96.9 MPH (95.8 MPH last year).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers: He might not be back just yet, but we might as well toss Hoffman back into the closer’s ring. The big question for the all-time saves leader is: can he limit the long ball damage, now that he doesn’t call cavernous PETCO Park home?

Watch Your Back

Joel Hanrahan, Nationals: Joel has gotten jacked up so far, with 5 runs surrendered and two blown saves in 7 IP. His first-pitch strike percentage is a gruesome 38.2%, third-worst among all relievers.

Mike Gonzalez, Braves: Gonzalez has missed plenty of bats (11 K in 6.1 IP), but he’s also allowed 3 free passes and 4 runs on his watch. Gonzo relies heavily upon a low-80’s slider (thrown 45.9% of the time in 2009) than can be a wicked offering, but his control of the pitch is scattershot.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg is winning over few people in Wrigleyville so far, with 5 runs allowed in 7 frames. His FIP stands at 6.52, while Carlos Marmol checks in at 3.64.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals: Franklin is apparently the guy in St. Louis for now, and he has done a nice job with 4 saves, 6 K’s and one walk in 7 innings. Still, this is Ryan Franklin, he of 4.87 career strikeouts per nine innings.

Manny Corpas, Rockies: Our first usurping! Corpas led a peaceful transfer of power from Huston Street, who was knocked down the totem pole to middle-man status for the time being. Corpas is a useful reliever, though calling him a shutdown ‘pen arm would be exceedingly kind. His career FIP is 3.79, and his K rate is 6.33 per nine innings.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: ho-hum. Mo has yet to be scored on in seven frames, punching out 8 without issuing a walk. Interestingly (though probably not relevant at all, given the results), Rivera’s scarcely used fastball and bread-and-butter cutter are both down velocity-wise, with the cutter coming in at 90.7 MPH (92.8 in 2008) and the fastball at 91.9 MPH (93.1 MPH in ’08).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: Papelbon is 4-for-4 in save ops to begin the year, though he has had some slight problems in locating his pitches (47.6% of his pitches have been in the strike zone, compared to a 54.8% career average).

Kerry Wood, Indians: Woody hasn’t received a whole lot of work thus far, tossing 4.1 frames. David DeJeus got to him for a two-run HR on Tuesday, Wood’s last appearance.

Joakim Soria, Royals: Soria has been his normal beastly self in the early going, with five saves and eight K’s in 5 IP. Soria has used his wicked low-70’s curveball 24.1% of the time thus far, compared to about 10% in previous years. Perhaps he got bored dominating hitters with his fastball. Or slider. Or changeup..

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: Jenks has received four innings of work, and hasn’t gotten into a game since April 16th. Somewhere, he’s glaring at Bartolo Colon and Jose Contreras.

Joe Nathan, Twins: Like Rivera, Nathan just marches along, posting zero’s near every time he takes the hill. He has surrendered one run in five frames, with three saves to his ledger.

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics: Joey Devine underwent Tommy John surgery this past week, eliminating the main competition for the gig. So far, so good for Ziegler: his submarining splendor has generated groundballs at a 68% clip, though he’s walked four in nine frames.

Brandon Morrow, Mariners: He’s getting the hang of this: since getting roped for 3 runs against the Twins on April 7th, Morrow has tossed five scoreless frames, with seven whiffs and 3 walks. Meanwhile, Chris Jakubauskas (who most baseball fans wouldn’t know from Chewbacca) was torched for 10 hits and 6 runs in 3.1 frames last night in a starting role.

Brian Fuentes, Angels: Fuentes is off to a false start in LA, with a -0.45 WPA and decreased fastball velocity. Just 42.9% of his pitches thrown have crossed the plate.

Frank Francisco, Rangers: Francisco has shot out of the gate dealing, with a 7/1 K/BB ratio and nary a run allowed in 7 innings. It’s extremely early, but Francisco ranks 2nd among all closers in WPA, at +0.84.

Watch Your Back

B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays: the pain continues for Ryan, who coughed up a long ball to Texas’ Michael Young last evening. His tally for the year: 5.2 IP, 8 runs and a 4/5 K/BB ratio.

George Sherrill, Orioles: Chris Ray hasn’t lit the world on fire either, but Sherrill has given up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5.1 innings. Ultimately, he’s a good middle man miscast in a late-inning role: CHONE projects a FIP in the range of four.

Troy Percival, Rays: Percival is another guy who holds the closer’s role due mostly to its more predictable usage patterns, and putting him there opens up Joe Maddon’s ability to deploy J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler whenever he so chooses. Case in point: Percival has chucked just 3.2 innings so far. Howell has 7, Balfour 4.1 and Wheeler 5.2.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers: Rodney needs only to peer over his shoulder at Ryan Perry or check a Toledo Mud Hens box score for “Zumaya” to know that his job security ain’t the greatest. To his credit, Rodney has gotten ahead 0-1 or induced early contact often so far, with a first-pitch strike percentage of 77.3 (57.8% major league average).

Let’s take a look at the early season performances of the bullpen rock stars, the closers. For the purposes of this “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies: “Lights Out” remains perfect in save situations, though he’s surrendered 3 runs and two bombs in five innings. Lidge was due for some regression in the tater department: his HR/FB% was just 3.9 in 2008. Odds are, he’ll post a FIP in the low-three’s as a few more homers leave the park and will be labeled a “disappointment” despite little change in his actual skill level.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets:

Jerry Manuel, forward thinker:

“We have, as an industry, somewhat boxed ourselves into making people believe that, ‘If it’s not that [save] situation, I don’t do well,'” Manuel said. “But the game is still on the line. That’s the bottom line. And that’s what we — especially as the team we are in New York — we have to understand that. It’s about the win, and not the statistic.” (Mets.com, via Rotoworld)

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: Big John is 3-for-3 to start the season, with 5 punchouts and no walks in 4 frames. His upper-90’s cheddar and nasty slider give him the equipment to dominate.

Matt Capps, Pirates: Capps (apparently healthy after a shoulder injury in 2008) is an odd duck as a late-inning reliever: he throws hard and relies heavily on his heat, but he gets the job done more with location (career 1.36 BB/9) than sheer force (6.7 K/9). Capps has converted both save opportunities thus far.

Heath Bell, Padres: The Padres do as good a job as anyone in procuring cheap, effective bullpen help, and they continue to go that route. Take a look at the current relief corps: literally everyone outside of Bell, Cla Meredith (both also acquired in lower-level trades) and Edwin Moreno was not in the organization as of a couple months ago. So far, so good for Heath: he’s racked up four saves in four chances.

In Control

Mike Gonzalez, Braves: Gonzo’s beginning his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, and is 1-for-2 in save ops thus far.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins: He’s working his way back from a strained right rotator cuff, and is also one for two in picking up the save. Lindstrom doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d think he would, given the upper-90’s velocity (career 7.62 K/9).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg clearly plays second-fiddle to Carlos Marmol in talent level, but the erstwhile Marlin will rack up the glory stat for one of the National League’s strongest clubs. He’s off to a turbulent start (6/5 K/BB in 4 IP).

Francisco Cordero, Reds: After a macabre spring, Cincy’s good-but-overcompensated stopper has pitched three scoreless frames, with 4 K’s and no walks.

Jose Valverde, Astros: Valverde has yet to get a save op, as the Houston Astros trot out a “you mean he’s still around?”-quality back of the rotation.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks: With little fanfare, Qualls posted a 3.02 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate to root out good or bad luck on flyballs) in 2008. That bested Valverde (3.49), the man for whom he was traded prior to the ’08 season, by nearly half a run.

Brian Wilson, Giants: Wilson is a high-octane hurler, punching out 9.67 batters per nine innings in 2008 while also generating grounders at a 51.7% clip. Can his control take a step forward? Stay tuned.

Watch Your Back

Joel Hanrahan, Nationals: Joel hasn’t had a save chance yet, what with the Nats laying the groundwork for a quick fall into irrelevance in 2009. He’s whiffed over 9 batters per nine innings in his career, but Hanrahan’s helter-skelter control (5.31 BB/9) will have Manny Acta and fantasy owners reaching for the Tums on a regular basis.

Carlos Villanueva, Brewers: Villanueva is simply keeping the seat warm for Trevor Hoffman (oblique injury). “Hell’s Bells” will soon blare at Miller Park, but the extreme flyball act might not work as well outside of Petco.

Jason Motte/Ryan Franklin/Kyle McClellan/Denys Reyes, Cardinals: Motte got off on the wrong foot opening day, surrendering the lead to the Pirates and apparently losing the confidence of Tony La Russa. Motte still looks like the best man for the job, but it’s anyone’s guess as to who enters the next time the Cards have a lead in the late innings.

Huston Street, Rockies: Street has given up 6 hits and 3 runs in 2.2 innings so far. Manny Corpas (and possibly Taylor Buchholz when he returns from an elbow injury) could continue to remain in the picture.

Let’s take a look at the early season performances of the bullpen rock stars, the closers. For the purposes of this “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: Mo shall throw a cutter, and you shall not hit it. Rivera has only gotten one save and two frames of work thus far, but the 40 year-old wonder remains damn-near untouchable.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: The Angels smacked Papelbon on April 11th (Torii Hunter took him deep), but there’s nothing to worry about here.

Kerry Wood, Indians: Woody hasn’t had much action with the Tribe off to a false start, but he’s coming off a season in which he posted a 4.67 K/BB ratio and a 2.32 FIP.

Joakim Soria, Royals: The Mexicutioner won’t post a 1.60 ERA again (his BABIP was a Tony Pena Jr.-esque .215 in ’08), but his filthy four-pitch mix makes him one of the best (and perhaps most overqualified) relievers in the game.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: Jenks has certainly become a different sort of hurler over the past few seasons; whether that’s for the best remains to be seen. The Royals got to him on April 9th, but he converted another opportunity versus the club on the 7th and blanked the Twins on the 12th.

Joe Nathan, Twins: How many people realize that Nathan hasn’t posted a K/BB of less than four since 2004, and that his 2.79 FIP in 2008 was his highest mark since his last year in a Giants uniform (2003)?

In Control

George Sherrill, Orioles: Sherrill is 3-for-3 in save situations to start the year, through he’ll have to contend with rehabilitated flame-thrower Chris Ray throughout the season.

Brad Ziegler, Athletics: The generic starter-turned submariner is 2-for-3 in save situations for the year, but he won’t have to worry about Joey Devine (elbow, 60-day DL) any time soon.

Brandon Morrow: Morrow’s move to the bullpen has certainly spurred some lively debate. He’s off to a bit of a rough start (4/5 K/BB in 2.2 IP) and David Aardsma has snatched up a couple saves, but the job is supposed to be there for the former Cal star. In other disappointing news, top prospect Philip Aumont was also moved to the ‘pen. At this rate, the 2010 rotation will consist of Felix Hernandez and “staff.”

Brian Fuentes, Angels: Fuentes is 2-for-3 in save ops thus far, with 6 hits and 4 runs allowed. The former Rockie was quite good last season, but the 2.73 ERA is pushing it: his HR/FB rate was just 4.5% (the average is around 10-11%). Fuentes’ velocity has been down, for whatever that’s worth in 3 innings of work (89.8 MPH on the fastball in ’09, 91.6 MPH in ’08).

Frank Francisco, Rangers: Francisco whiffed 11.79 per nine in ’08 with a 3.18 FIP, but his control does come and go, not the best tendency for a high-leverage reliever. He’s the best that Texas has to offer, but his leash might not be as long as it should be with Eddie Guardado and C.J. Wilson lurking around.

Watch Your Back

Troy Percival, Rays: Between Percy’s chronic back and hamstring issues as well as Joe Maddon’s flexibility in using his best relievers in the most crucial situations (that could be a save situation, or not), the burly veteran isn’t guaranteed much.

B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays: Ryan has looked downright awkward to begin the ’09 season: he used to sit 90-91 with his heater and snap off wicked mid-80’s sliders, but the herky-jerky lefty is averaging just 88 MPH through three appearances. The role is his for now, but the Jays do possess a deep ‘pen.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers: Rodney will get the call in the 9th for now, having usurped Brandon Lyon. Still, he’s Fernando Rodney, he of a career 4.51 BB/9. He looks like he should dominate with that gas/changeup combo, but he just doesn’t. ’08 first-rounder Ryan Perry looms in the background.

Imagine being hired at an entry level position for a company. Then, imagine becoming CEO of that company six months later.

Okay, so the ultra-aggressive promotions of ’07 and ’08 bonus babies Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry aren’t quite at that level of expedition, but it’s close. Desperate to infuse the major league club with any talent capable of avoiding a Charlie Brown-like fate on the mound (or a Kenny Rogers-type fate, for that matter), Detroit has called upon its most recently sowed farm products.

Porcello, 20, created quite the buzz during the summer of 2007. A 6-5, 195 pounder with an unusually deep mix of pitches, Porcello committed to North Carolina and was considered an awfully difficult sign. The lanky right-hander was often billed as the best prep pitching prospect since Josh Beckett, and his scouting reports were positively glowing:

“He’s long, lean, athletic and projectable with a clean delivery. His fastball sits at 93-95, touching 98. He holds his velocity deep into outings. He throws a tight curveball at 74-76 and a harder, sharp-breaking slider at 80-82. He shows feel for his changeup. He can spot his fastball to both sides of the plate, and mixes his pitches effectively.” (Baseball America’s 2007 draft coverage)

The luxury price tag and strong Tar Heel ties caused 26 teams to pass on Porcello, but the Tigers stepped up and took the best available talent, price tag be damned. Detroit eventually signed him to a $7 million major league contract, including a nearly $3.6 million bonus.

Porcello made his debut at High-A Lakeland in the Florida State League in 2008. As a teenager, he posted rates of 5.18 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9, with a 3.83 FIP in 125 innings pitched. In most cases, one might be justifiably skeptical of a highly-touted hurler who misses so few bats. However, Porcello exhibited control far beyond his years while showing extreme worm-killing tendencies (64.1 GB%).

In addition, Baseball America noted in its prospect handbook that the Tigers had Porcello on a pitch count, allowing no more than 75 tosses per game. Porcello can touch the mid-to-high-90’s with his four-seam fastball and was known to rip off some nasty sliders in high school (Detroit scrapped the pitch, at least for now). But, he focused on efficiency in ’08, with a low-90’s sinker, a 12-to-6 curve and a plus changeup as his weapons of choice. BA compared Porcello’s overall package to that of Roy Halladay, the dean of controlled, groundballing productivity.

While Porcello easily ranked as Detroit’s top prospect, fireballing right-hander Ryan Perry ranks second on most lists. Popped out of Arizona with the 21st overall pick in the 2008 draft, Perry’s claim to fame is a searing, 97-100 MPH fastball that gets on hitters in a flash. Teaming with fellow ’08 first-rounder Daniel Schlereth (Diamondbacks), Perry short-circuited radar guns and supplemented the heat with an occasionally deadly high-80’s slider. He made a brief cameo last summer between rookie ball and Lakeland, posting a 16/7 K/BB in 13.2 innings.

Perry’s command is not always ideal, which BA claims kept him from developing into a consistent starter at Arizona. However, as a ‘pen arm, he could quickly claim a prominent role with the Tigers. Detroit’s bullpen is essentially a wasteland of decent middle men, an excommunicated starter (Nate Robertson) and reclamation projects (Juan Rincon is still pitching?). Brandon Lyon is a serviceable arm, but he’s a late-inning reliever in name only. Joel Zumaya is baseball’s equivalent of a busted Lamborghini. Fernando Rodney’s level of arson is matched only by former teammate-turned-ridiculously-priced Royal Kyle Farnsworth. Suffice it to say, there’s opportunity here.

It’s nearly impossible to say how quickly Detroit’s top two prospects will acclimate themselves to the major league level. After all, Porcello was getting ready for the prom this time two years ago, and Perry has all of 14 frames of pro pitching to his name. Will sending Porcello and Perry’s development clocks into turbo-drive pay off? Stay tuned.