The N.L. Closer Report: 4/29

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Last year’s Win Probability Added leader has gotten his 2009 campaign off to an inauspicious start, with a -0.40 WPA in 8.2 innings to date. Dealing with pain in his right knee (surgically repaired prior to that stellar ’08 season), Lidge could he headed to the DL. He has often gotten behind in the count, tossing a first-pitch strike just 46.5% of the time (57.6% MLB average). He hasn’t appeared in a game since April 25th.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez surrendered his first two runs of the year against the Nationals on April 24th, but still picked up a save (he’s four-for-four on the year). Fun Pitch F/X-related tidbit: you could conduct a road sobriety test on the path that K-Rod’s fastball takes. The four-seamer breaks just two inches in on the hands of right-handed batters, compared to the average of 6 inches for righty pitchers.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton blew his first save of the year last night, walking Travis Ishikawa to load the bases and then issuing another free pass to Rich Aurilia to force in a run. Big John ended up getting the W after Bob Howry gave up a pair of runs. Broxton’s control hiccup is of little concern: he has a 5.33 K/BB ratio on the year, and he ranks 5th among relievers in WPA.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps hasn’t seen game action since the 24th, when he took the loss against the Padres after uncharacteristically issuing two walks. Not that it’s a huge concern, but Capps has three walks on the year. To put that into context, he gave up just five in 53.2 frames in 2008.

Heath Bell, Padres

We fretted a little bit during the winter about Bell’s strenuous workload over the 2007-2008 seasons, but Heath has been none the worse for wear in 2009. A perfect 8-for-8 in save ops, Bell has yet to give up a run. Opposing batters are swinging at many of Bell’s offerings thrown out of the strike zone (31.5 Outside Swing%) and are making contact with those pitches off the plate (73.9 Outside-Contact%; the MLB average is 62.2%), a recipe for success.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls has been his typically outstanding self, punching out 12 batters in 8 innings while giving up just one walk. Batters normally beat Qualls’ sinker/slider combo into the ground, but his rate of worm-killers thus far (72.2 GB%) is well above his already-lofty 58.5% career average. His sinker (thrown with 3 inches of vertical movement in 2008) has been even more of a bowling ball in 2009, with just 1.7 inches of vertical movement.

In Control

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero blew his first save on the 27th versus the Astros, walking two and giving up three runs. Cincy’s closer has simply been trying to blow hitters away with his 95 MPH heater, throwing the pitch 73.7% of the time (52% in 2008). As usual, Cordero looks untouchable some outings, while nearly causing Dusty Baker to swallow his tooth pick on the nights where his control disappears.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde suffered a setback, pulling his calf again while attempting to field a ground ball hit back to him (this after an Orlando Hudson come-backer earlier in the week). The Astros placed Valverde on the DL. LaTroy Hawkins will likely get the save opportunities until Jose returns.

Brian Wilson, Giants

The mohawked moundsman had a rough outing on the 26th versus the limping D-Backs (3 runs and a blown save), but on the whole, he’s been productive on the season (2.98 FIP). For whatever reason, opponents just plain are not swinging at whatever pitches that Wilson throws out of the strike zone: his Outside-Swing% against is just 10.6% in 2009, compared to the 24.3% MLB average. Hitters swung at Wilson’s outside offerings at a league average rate in 2007, but did so just 17.1% of the time in 2008 before chopping down that figure in ’09.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman turned in a scoreless inning on the 27th, then converted his first save opportunity as a Brewer the following night. “Hell’s Bells” will be challenged by the less hospitable environs of Miller Park.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

On April 24th, Lindstrom endured a drubbing that his ERA won’t soon forget: he surrendered a whopping 7 earned runs in 0.2 IP. Just take a look at the Win Probability graph for the game- there’s a Wile E. Coyote-style cliff dive in the late innings:

Nationals’ Closer Consortium

Joel Hanrahan’s total lack of strike-zone control (5 walks and a Boeing-level 7.39 FIP) finally cost him the ninth-inning gig, as the Nats will now go with the dreaded “Closer by Committee.” Kip Wells (no, really) and Julian Tavarez are candidates, as are pretty much any other members of the ‘pen. Joe Beimel could be the guy once he returns from the DL, though you’ll want to consider that Beimel’s shiny 2.02 ERA last season came with the benefit of an insane 0.0 HR/FB%. Beimel hasn’t surrendered a big fly since 2007 (and he gave up only 1 that year). Can he possibly keep this up?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Gonzo has rebounded since a rocky beginning to the season, with four scoreless appearances in a row, 8 K’s and 1 walk. The lefty has whiffed 16 batters in 8.1 frames, and his 66% contact rate ranks highly among relievers. Now if only he could catch the plate with a little more regularity..

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Gregg has located just 43.8% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.1% MLB average), which helps explain the five free passes issued in 8 innings. His FIP for the year is 6.06.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Toting a goatee that would make ZZ Top proud, Franklin has converted all 6 save chances, while striking out 9 batters in 9 innings and surrendering nary a run. We remain skeptical, but Franklin has done his job so far.

Manny Corpas, Rockies

Corpas has been scored on in 3 of his past 4 appearances, suffering 2 losses along the way. The near .400 BABIP won’t continue, but Corpas isn’t fooling much of anyone, with a contact rate in the mid-80’s.