For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Aside from showing Zen-like plate discipline by drawing a bases-loaded walk against K-Rod, Rivera collected three more saves this week (taking him to 20 for the year). Mo mowed down 3 hitters in 3.1 innings, allowing 1 hit. That takes his K/BB ratio for the year up to a ridiculous 40/3 in 32.2 IP. Rivera’s XFIP figures since 2006: 3.64, 3.06, 2.44, 1.93. For more on how Rivera has managed to make hitters look silly with essentially one pitch for a decade and a half, check out Dave Allen’s piece on two very different kinds of cutters. It may technically be the same pitch, but Rivera works both sides of the plate against righty and lefty hitters alike.

Joe Nathan, Twins

The 34 year-old Nathan could be turning in the best season of his career. His K/BB ratio is an obscene 6.5 in 2009 (a career-high), with a 1.95 FIP bested only by LA’s Broxton and Atlanta’s Soriano. The last time Nathan allowed a run was May 15th, a stretch of 16.2 IP. During June, this far-from-ordinary Joe whiffed 18 batters while issuing a single walk in 11.2 IP.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim collected two saves this week, slamming the door on the Pirates June 28th and the Twins the following night. Soria’s FIP is 2.39 for the year, with 23 K’s in 18.2 IP. The 25 year-old has an awfully deep mix of pitches for a reliever, and he’s mixing it up more since his rookie season. In 2007, Soria tossed his fastball 77.2% of the time. He used the heat 72.4% last year, and 67.6% in 2009, as he relies more on a wicked 70 MPH curveball (+4.76 runs/100 pitches career) and low-80’s change (+0.98).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon picked up 3 saves this week, while blowing one opportunity vs. the O’s on the 30th as part of that absurd 11-10 Baltimore comeback. Perhaps Papelbon’s early-season control issues are in the rearview mirror: he has issued just 1 free pass over his past 5 innings. Still, his FIP (4.21) is well above his accustomed level (2.01 in ’08 and 2.45 in ’07), with just 8.74 K/9 (10 K/9 in ’08, 12.96 in ’07).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks pitched just twice this week, getting a W vs. the cross-town Cubbies June 27th and getting the save against the Royals yesterday. The 6-3, 275 pounder is turning in a superb year, with 8.79 K/9 (a marked increase from last year’s 5.55 K/9) and 1.88 BB/9. Some poor luck on flyballs has put a damper on the overall numbers, but Jenks has recovered his strikeout ability and velocity (95.4 MPH fastball in 2009, 93.8 last year) while further refining his control.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Re-inserted as Texas’ closer, Francisco had a rough return when the Angels pummeled him for 3 runs, two walks and a homer on July 1st. In a season interrupted by elbow and shoulder pain, Frank has posted a 26/7 K/BB ratio in 23.2 innings. His split-finger pitch is stifling the opposition, with a +4.58 run/100 pitch value in 2009. Normally a wild child (4.43 BB/9 career), Francisco has issued 2.66 BB/9 this season.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey continues to crush hitters in the late innings. While he didn’t get a save this week, he eviscerated the competition to the tune of 7 K’s and 1 hit in 3 innings (his FIP sits at 2.65 for the year). Bailey’s three-pitch mix has limited batters to a Z-Contact% (percentage of contact made on pitches within the strike zone) of 70.8%, light years below the 87.7% MLB average.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes didn’t give up a single run in June (8.2 IP, 11 K, 3 BB), and he started off July with another scoreless frame against the O’s yesterday. His walk rate is down to 2.86 per nine innings (a career low), with a 3.11 FIP that trumps the 3.34 mark posted by the Queens-bound man he replaced in Los Angeles.

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has taken the past five save chances for the Rays, a great development for fantasy owners. The 26 year-old converted starter is among the very best ‘pen arms in the majors, with 10.71 K/9, and a 2.47 FIP. J.P. supplements a deceptively effective mid-80’s fastball (+0.87 runs/100 in 2009) with a knockout 80 MPH curve (+2.28) and changeup (+2.91). He may not fit the fire-breathing closer archetype, but he’s damned hard to make contact against. Howell’s 68.3% contact rate ranks 6th among relievers tossing at least 30 IP. If the save chances keep on coming, he’ll surely climb this list.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood didn’t get a save chance this week, but he and the Indians will gladly take two scoreless innings, given his turbulent beginning in Cleveland. The 32 year-old Texan still has a walk rate nearing 5.3 per nine innings, with a -0.99 WPA that places him in the bottom 10 among all relievers. The Tribe acquired another hard-throwing, control-challenged ‘pen arm in Chris Perez (acquired from St. Louis along with a PTBNL for Mark DeRosa), but he doesn’t seem likely to challenge Wood this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill was shellacked by Boston on July 1st, walking three and giving up 2 runs in a 6-5 loss. Overall, the 32 year-old southpaw has a 3.62 FIP and a 1.22 WPA. Sherrill’s shiny 2.51 ERA and “Proven Closer” moniker could make him attractive to bullpen-starved teams. The O’s are reportedly still unsure of whether or not to ship Sherrill elsewhere, but it definitely seems to make sense. The club has an outstanding crop of talent, but the A.L. East is a whole different beast; they’re not contending now, and George won’t be part of the next competitive Baltimore team.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma collected a save vs. the Dodgers on June 28th, then tossed a scoreless frame against the Yankees (no save) yesterday in an 8-4 win. The flame-throwing 27 year-old is fooling plenty of hitters (11.33 K/9, with a contact rate in the low-70’s), but his XFIP (4.01) is considerably higher than his ERA (1.45). If there’s a place Aardsma can keep defying convention, though, it’s Seattle (the flyball righty resides in a park that suppresses homers and has the benefit of Gutierrez and Ichiro! in the outfield).

Jason Frasor (Scott Downs on the DL with a toe injury), Blue Jays

Frasor didn’t get a save op this week, but he did make two scoreless appearances (vs. Philly on June 28th and Tampa on July 1st). He did walk two in two innings, however. Frasor’s walk rate will be worth monitoring in the following weeks. He has issued just 2.28 BB/9, but that’s more the product of more outside swings (25.1% O-swing% in ’09, 19.7 in 2007) than some newfound ability to paint the corners.

Meanwhile, Downs is on the comeback trail (he threw off a mound for the first time June 30th). Downs seems to feel he’s close to a return…

“It’s progress,” Downs said. “It wouldn’t be the first time I pitched through discomfort. It’s not discomfort enough to where it’s affecting my mechanics and that’s the main thing.” (mlb.com)

…While manager Cito Gaston is less convinced…

“I hope he is but I really dont know,” said Gaston. “I have no confidence in that at all.” (Jordan Bastian)

Watch Your Back

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Rodney dips back down to “Watch Your Back” territory, following a flammable June that saw him get hammered for 9 runs in 12 IP. Fernando issued an ugly 10 free passes during June, locating just 45% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.2% MLB average). Rodney’s FIP has ballooned to 4.04. Granted, Zumaya (5.05 FIP, 5.47 BB/9) hasn’t been some beacon of stability. But the Tigers could explore trade possibilities over the next month.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton had a relatively light week of work, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing considering that he’s on pace to chuck 76 innings this season (that’s nothing compared to Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario, however: Troncoso is on a 105-inning pace and Belisario projects to throw 96 frames). Jon notched one save in two appearances vs. Colorado, whiffing five batters in the process. If Broxton is wearing out, it’s certainly not showing up in his velocity readings: his average fastball checked in at 97.3 MPH in June (97.5 MPH for the year). The 25 year-old has increased his fastball velocity every season in the majors, from 94.4 MPH in 2005 to that near-98 MPH reading in ’09. His run values for the pitch (per 100 pitches) since 2005? 0.17, -0.30, +0.69. +1.38 and +1.60 in 2009.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath corralled the state of Texas this week, notching a save vs. the Rangers on June 28th and another against Houston on the 30th. Bell still hasn’t been taken deep in 33.2 innings this season, racking up a +2.17 Win Probability Added (WPA) that’s tied for 7th among relievers. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, could Bell be switching uni’s? The Padres have considerable work to do on the rebuilding front, and hording a 31 year-old reliever, no matter the quality, wouldn’t seem to be a wise move.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez had an embarrassing week, featuring what is likely the lowest point of his distinguished career: a bases-loaded walk to closer deity Mariano Rivera, of all people. K-Rod walked three in that appearance against the Yankees on the 28th, got a spotless save against Milwaukee July 1st then blew up again yesterday afternoon in a rain-drenched affair against the Pirates (4 H, 2R, 1 HR in 2 IP). Is it time to be concerned here? In 2006, Rodriguez posted a 3.5 K/BB ratio with the Angels. In 2009, that figure has nearly been cut in half (1.82 K/BB). He’s lost 3 punchouts per nine innings since ’06, and his walk rate (4.99 BB/9) is up for the 4th straight season. Rodriguez has never jumped out ahead of hitters, but check out his First-Pitch Strike% totals (MLB average is 58%):

2006: 57.4
2007: 57.2
2008: 54.5
2009: 48.8

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor was touched up for two runs and 4 hits against the Giants on June 27th, then came back to pick up a save vs. the Mets on the 29th (his 18th). Like the man who replaced him in San Diego, Hoffman hasn’t surrendered a home run this year. Believe it or not, his 85 MPH fastball has been remarkably effective in 2009. Among relievers tossing at least 20 innings, Hoffman’s +3.03 runs/100 with the pitch ranks 2nd. Hoffman’s vaunted low-70’s changeup (+3.60/100 pitches) has also been dastardly. The fastball/changeup combo is all about working up and down the for all-time saves leader: his fastball and changeup barely move horizontally at all (1 inch of tail in on righties for the fastball, with 3 inches of tail for the change). However, there’s a half-foot of difference in terms of vertical movement (12.4 inches for the fastball, 6.6 for the changeup). The MLB average is less than 4 inches of difference.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Pitching at less-than-optimum health (strained forearm), Qualls surrendered 8 runs in 9.2 frames during the month of June. Opponents slugged .535 against him during the month, as he punched out 5 batters. Qualls’ numbers for the season (8.16 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, 64.6 GB%) are excellent, but have been dragged down by a .350 BABIP.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Lidge had another stomach-churning appearance on June 26th, coughing up 2 runs and 2 walks in 1/3 of an inning vs. the Blue Jays. He did recover to collect a save two nights later against Toronto. Let’s try to be positive here: Lidge has suffered from a .371 BABIP and a 17.9 HR/FB rate. Still, his walk rate (5.6 BB/9, 46 Zone%) is troubling. None of Lidge’s pitches are working. His fastball (-3.45 runs/100 pitches) is the least effective among all relievers, and the oft-utilized slider comes in at -0.59/100 pitches (+2.50 in 2008).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Coco Cordero threw a scoreless frame versus Cleveland June 27th (no save), picked up a SV against Arizona July 1st and got a W despite walking three batters against the D-Backs the following night. Cordero’s K/BB ratio has dipped to 1.93, with his K rate falling by a decent margin (7.68 K/9, down from 9.98 last year). His low BABIP (.264) and HR/FB rate (3.2%) suggest that the 1.85 ERA is more smoke and mirrors than great pitching. Cordero’s XFIP (based on K’s, walks, and a normalized HR/FB rate) sits over two runs higher (3.93).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps picked up two saves this week (against the Royals and Cubs), but it wasn’t a particularly good week for the Big Bull Rider. He served up a homer to Mark Teahen on June 26th, then took a loss against the Mets yesterday afternoon. Capps won’t be 26 until September, but don’t be entirely surprised if his name enters trade discussion over the next month. The Pirates surely aren’t shy about jettisoning players if they feel the return is right.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street sealed the deal twice this week, with saves against his former employer (the A’s) on June 27th and 28th. After a mediocre 2008 season (-0.01 WPA), Street has rebounded by increasing his K/BB ratio from 2.56 to 3.90 (+0.98 WPA). After locating just 47.5% of his pitches in the zone last season, Huston has increased that figure to 51.2% with the Rockies (49.2 MLB average, 51.4 career average).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Papa Grande pitched twice this past week, blowing a save against Detroit on June 28th (2 R, including a homer by Brandon Inge). Working his way back from a nasty calf injury, Valverde hasn’t gotten ahead of hitters as well as he normally does. His First-Pitch Strike% is just 55.1 (65.3 in 2007 and 61.4 in 2008). To boot, opponents are making contact with 84.1% of his pitches within the zone (76.2 career average). Despite all that negativity, Valverde still has a 20/5 K/BB in 16.2 innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Franklin continues to defy logic by holding an eye-popping 99.1% strand rate and a .206 BABIP. Those measures say “regression” in bold, glowing, neon lights. Yet, St. Louis’ stopper hasn’t given up a run since May 20th (a stretch of 13 appearances). It helps that Franklin just plain doesn’t walk anyone (1.45 BB/9; he last gave up a free pass May 27th).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had his 13-appearance scoreless streak busted on June 27th vs. the Brewers, as he was beaten to the tune of 3 runs and 4 hits in 0.2 innings. He then came back to notch a 1.1-inning save vs. St. Louis on June 30th. On the positive side, Wilson’s 96 MPH heater is humming (+1.50 runs/100). On the other hand, he’s throwing about 5 percent fewer pitches within the strike zone (54.3 in ’08, 49.2 in ’09). His WPA for the year sits at -0.87. That’s in the same territory as discarded Twin Luis Ayala and maligned middle man Aaron Heilman.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Gonzalez notched a save against the Red Sox on June 28th, with Soriano picking up a SV yesterday against the Phillies after Ryan Madson coughed up 3 runs. Soriano bests Gonzalez in WPA (2.2 to 0.97) and K/BB ratio (3.77 to 3.4), and he was used in more high-leverage situations than Gonzo in June (1.68 Leverage Index to 1.48 for Gonzalez). They’re both qualified, and figuring out who gets the 9th-inning opportunity will come down to matchups and recent usage compared to just pigeonholing one guy as “closer” and the other “set-up man.” Imagine that.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg turned in a much-needed, serene week for the Cubs. He gathered three saves (one against the White Sox and two vs. the Bucs), whiffing three and not surrendering a hit in 3 IP. Gregg’s numbers for the year aren’t anything to write home about, but his WPA is up to 0.45 and he has stopped handing out walks like they’re sticks of Juicy Fruit (1.5 K/BB in April, 2.4 in May and 3.67 in June).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Nunez appears to be the guy pegged for save ops for Florida in Lindstrom’s absence. The lithe, live-armed 25 year old (formerly of the Pittsburgh and Kansas City organizations) boasts a 94 MPH fastball, mid-80’s slider and a hard mid-80’s change. While those offerings didn’t lead to many whiffs in 2008 (4.84 K/9), Nunez has punched out 8.49 batters per nine innings this season. Opponents aren’t making a whole lot of contact with his stuff (72.4% overall, compared to the 80.6% MLB average), but Nunez could stand to stop getting into so many hitter’s counts (53.4 First-Pitch Strike%).

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal picked up a save against the O’s on June 28th, while also seeing one of his competitors (Joel Hanrahan) shipped to the ‘Burgh. Not that the former Royal and White Sock should enjoy any great job security: in 18.2 IP, MacDougal has a 10/15 K/BB ratio.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon turned in his first poor week at the office, surrendering 4 runs, 2 walks and a homer (his first of the year) in two appearances against the Angels on June 20th and 21st. His numbers are still fantastic for the season, however: 14.38 K/9, a 1.41 FIP and a 2.79 WPA that leads all relievers.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell racked up 2 saves this week, while also picking up a win (4 IP total). Remarkably, Heath still hasn’t given up a homer in 31.1 innings. Bell has ratcheted up the use of his fastball in recent seasons (from 64% in ’07 to 76.2% this year), and with good reason: the pitch has a run value of +2.07/100 pitches this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod was touched up against the Orioles on the 18th (2 H, 2 BB), but he has tossed three scoreless innings (3 saves) since. Rodriguez’s peripherals continue to head south, however. His K rate (9.59) is down for a 4th straight season, and his walk rate (4.79 BB/9) is a career high. A .223 BABIP and a 2.2 HR/FB rate have kept his surface numbers at an elite level, but there are some cracks in the foundation here.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

With the Brew Crew rotation featuring Gallardo and four punching bags, Hoffman’s work has been scarce (Milwaukee has dropped 5 out of 6 games). Trevor has been mortal this month (including a blown save and 2 runs surrendered against the Indians on the 17th), but he still boasts a 19/4 K/BB ratio in 21.2 frames. Hoffman still hasn’t given up a big fly, either.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

After a turbulent beginning to the month of June while dealing with forearm soreness (7 runs in his first 6 appearances), Qualls delivered two scoreless appearances on the 24th and 25th. Qualls’ fastball velocity hasn’t suffered, but the pitch hasn’t been as effective this season. His heater has a -0.34 run value per 100 tosses, including an ugly -4.16 mark in June (+1.68 in 2008).

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Lidge is off the DL following a pair of quality rehab appearances for Single-A Clearwater. “Lights out” returns to a line that includes some truly gruesome figures. He ranks dead last in WPA (-2.20), with the least productive heater among ‘pen arms (-3.36 runs per 100 pitches). Opponents have made contact with 87.9% of Lidge’s offerings within the zone, well above his 74.8% career average. Let’s hope that the rest and mended knee fix this previously dominant closer.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero finally served up a big fly this week, amazingly his first since September 20th, 2008. He picked up 3 saves during the week, with a 1.44 WPA for the season. Hitters continue to make more contact with Cordero’s stuff (64.5% in 2007, 70.7 in 2007 and 76.8% in 2008). However, nearly all of that extra contact has come on pitches outside of the zone: Cordero’s O-Contact% has gone from 35.1% in ’07 to 63.5% in ’09.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps hasn’t collected a save since June 14th, but he has tossed two scoreless frames since then, including a pair against the Indians. Happily, Capps’ normally razor-sharp control appears to be returning. He has issued just 1 walk in 9 innings this month, while locating 60.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (51.6% in April and May).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has been an awfully busy man for the surging Rockies, with 8 saves in June. Huston’s K rate has bounced back this season, from 8.87 per nine innings in 2008 to 10.16 per nine in ’09, and his walk rate is down from 3.47/9 last year to 2.61. Street’s slider has been deadly, with a run value of +4.07 per 100 pitches (one of the 10 highest rates among relievers).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has returned to ninth-inning duties rather well. He did blow a save against the Royals on June 24th, but he collected 4 saves since our last “Closer Report” while issuing just one walk. Valverde’s fastball (95.5 MPH) is humming, though opponents have made contact within the zone 85.7% of the time this season (76.2% career average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Has anyone seen Mr. Franklin? He hasn’t gotten into a game since June 20th, when he picked up a 1.1 inning save against the Royals. Franklin’s strand rate sits at an impossibly high 99.1%, making St. Louis’ ninth-inning man the best escape artist since Houdini. His FIP (3.21) is over 2.2 runs higher than his ERA (1.00).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Good Vibrations: The last time Wilson was scored upon was all the way back on May 21st. Since then, San Fran’s stopper has turned in 13.2 squeaky clean innings, with 16 K’s and four walks. His strikeout rate is up for a third consecutive campaign (6.85 in ’07, 9.67 in ’08, 9.79 this season), and his fastball run value (+1.71 per 100 pitches) is a career best.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano and Gonzalez appear to be engaged in a strikeout battle. Soriano (12.3 K/9) picked up the save against the Cubs on the 22nd, and now holds a 1.90 WPA. Gonzalez (11.65 K/9) has tossed five scoreless, walk-free frames since a 4-run meltdown on June 16th. His WPA sits at 1.20. Expect the time-share to continue for the foreseeable future. Both are well-qualified, and Bobby Cox knows that.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Well, so much for Angel Guzman’s covert attempt to swipe the closer’s role. The Venezuelan’s talent is only surpassed by his propensity to end up on the trainer’s table (this time, it’s a right triceps strain).

Gregg continues to do his best Joe Borowski imitation. The former Angel and Marlin had been working on a 9.2 inning scoreless streak, but he then used up some of that good will by blowing a game against Detroit on the 23rd (Ryan Raburn took him deep). His WPA (0.09) is just slightly in the black. Gregg has really ramped up the usage of his low-80’s slider (32.4% this year, 23.6% in ’08), but the pitch’s run value has dipped from +0.70 in 2008 to -1.01 this year.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer and Renyel Pinto are candidates

After two more blow ups (a combined 5 runs and 7 hits in 1.2 IP), Lindstrom heads to the DL with a triceps injury. Perhaps the time off will mend whatever has caused him to lose control of the strike zone: the high-octane righty issued 2.82 BB/9 in 2007, 4.08 in 2008 and a stunning 6.21 this season. Lindstrom’s velocity wasn’t suffering, but his Zone% dipped to a below-average 48.8% this season (51.5% in ’08 and 54% in ’07). Lindstrom is not expected back until August.

In his absence, Nunez, Meyer and Pinto will battle for save ops. Surprisingly, Meyer has resurrected his career in Florida and looks like the best hope for fantasy owners. The former Braves and Athletics prospect has recovered from a nasty shoulder injury to author a 3.48 FIP and a 4.29 K/BB ratio.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal has a 4.2 inning scoreless streak going, but it’s hard to get excited when that comes with nary a strikeout and 2 walks. Mac has a K/BB ratio of 9/13 this season, with just 43.4% of his pitches hitting the strike zone (49.1% MLB average). It would be best to look elsewhere.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Since we last checked up on Rivera, he has racked up three more saves (taking him up to 17 for the year), whiffing 5 batters in 2.2 combined innings. Much has been made about cracks in Mo’s armor this season, from an elevated HR rate to a decrease in cutter velocity to a decrease in his swinging strike percentage. But for all the panic, Rivera holds a 37/3 K/BB ratio in 29.1 innings, with the highest strikeout rate of his career. If this is decline, then we have become awfully spoiled.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has been a machine in June, compiling 8 saves while allowing no one to cross home plate. In fact, the last time Joe conceded a run was all the way back on May 15th. Since then, Nathan has reeled off 14 scoreless frames while punching out 19 hitters and walking just one. His 93 MPH fastball is overwhelming the competition, with a run value of +3.04 per 100 pitches (tops among all relievers).

Joakim Soria, Royals

With K.C. taking a royal beating as of late (6 losses in the past 8 games), Soria has just 1 save during the month of June. Joakim coughed up a run against the Astros on the 24th, and his control is a little off following a pair of DL stints (45.5 Zone%, compared to a 52.8% career average). He’s nasty as ever, though, with a 73.9% contact rate that ranks as the lowest of his career.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Boston’s stopper hasn’t quite been himself this season. Granted, it’s difficult to say that a guy ranking in 4th in Win Probability Added (2.17) is scuffling, but Papelbon isn’t attacking the strike zone in 2009 as he did in previous years. After posting rates of 2.31 BB/9 in 2007 and 1.04 BB/9 in 2008, Papelbon has issued 4 BB/9 this year. His Zone% is down to 48.6 (54.2% career average), and opponents have reacted by swinging at about 9 percent fewer pitches this season. Whether intentional or not, his fastball has more tailing action in on righties this year, the continuation of a three-year trend: 7.3 inches in ’07, 8.5 in ’08 and 9.2 in ’09.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks got taken out of the yard by Cincy’s Jay Bruce on June 20th, but has since reeled off three scoreless innings (2 saves). Bobby is having some uncharacteristic issues with the long ball this year. With a career 54.9% groundball rate and 0.62 HR/9, Jenks doesn’t give up jacks too often. But in ’09, his HR/FB% is 20 percent, 11 percent above his career average. It sounds silly to say with an established reliever like Jenks, but perhaps you could acquire him a little cheaper than usual from an owner just focusing on his inflated ERA (2.63 in ’08, 3.33 in ’09). Jenks’ K/BB ratio (4.33) is a career-high, with his K rate up from 5.55 last season to 8.67 this year.

Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson is getting the call until Francisco gets comfortable), Rangers

Francisco is back with the Rangers, but Wilson continues to get ninth-inning duty as Frank works his way back into form. He fired scoreless innings on the 20th and the 24th, but served up a dinger last evening to Arizona’s Mark Reynolds.

Wilson, meanwhile, hasn’t allowed a run since June 4th, a stretch of 7 innings (8/2 K/BB ratio). He’s doing a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground (58 GB%) and his 27.8 Outside-Swing% is a career-high, but Wilson’s 2.67 ERA overstates his case. His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR rate) is 3.78.

In Control

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has notched 3 saves since our last “Closer Report”, though June 20th was the last time he got into a game. The 6-3 righty (ranked just 23rd on Baseball America’s top 30 A’s prospects entering the year) has been a revelation in the ‘pen, with 10.15 K/9 and a 2.90 FIP. Bailey offers an unusually deep mix of pitches for a reliever, able to confound hitters with a 93 MPH fastball (+1.47 runs/100), 89 MPH cutter (+1.38) or 78 MPH curve (+3.70). Good luck squaring up those offerings: Bailey’s 71.8 Z-Contact% (percentage of contact made within the strike zone) ranks 1st among relievers tossing at least 30 innings.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes hasn’t surrendered a run in 5.2 innings this month, with 9 K’s and 3 walks. There are a few interesting trends worth watching with the former Rockie: His Zone% has decreased 3 straight seasons, from 52% in ’07, 51.7 in ’08 and 46.1 this year. Perhaps not coincidentally, the effectiveness of his secondary stuff has lagged this year. His fastball may be down a few ticks (91.6 MPH to 89.9), but the pitch still has a healthy run value of +1.60 per 100 pitches. His slider (-1.78) and changeup (-4.29) aren’t working near as well. Fuentes seems aware of this, however: his percentage of fastballs used has increased from 64.9% in 2006 to over 71% each of the past two seasons.

Kerry Wood, Indians

There’s no place like home? Wood headed back to his old stomping grounds in Wrigley this past week, only to get throttled for a pair of blown saves, 3 runs and 1 dinger in 1.1 innings. Cleveland’s big free agent signing then gave up a run and two walks against the Pirates on the 23rd, escaping with the cheap save by the skin of his teeth. Wood now has -0.2 Wins Above Replacement in 2009. Uh, Kerry, can we get a refund?

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill is working on another scoreless streak, with 5 spotless frames in a row. George has issued just 2 walks in June, after dishing out 5 in May. Typically control-challenged (career 4.36 BB/9), Sherrill has just 2.83 BB/9 in ’09. His WPA (1.44) is way above any of his previous marks.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is headed back to the rotation. We think.)

For the most part, Aardsma has been his wild self in 2009 (5.5 BB/9). But in June, he has issued just 3 walks in 9 innings, while whiffing 17 in the process. Perhaps it’s time to stop being quite so critical. Aardsma’s chances of losing his job are remote with Morrow out of the picture, he’s whiffing over 11 batters per nine innings, and he’s an extreme flyball pitcher backed by two center field-caliber OF’s in a park that suppresses homers. The extremely low HR/FB rate (2.4%), BABIP (.251) and high strand rate (88.1%, compared to a 73.8% career average) portend to regression, but the K’s and grip on the job make him a viable option.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Same old Rodney? Fernando’s strikeout-to-walk ratios over the first three months: 4.00 in April, 2.60 in May and 1.11 in June. Sadly, his sharp spring is looking like the outlier. Sure, Rodney has been scored upon just once in his last 6 innings, but that stretch also includes 4 free passes. His Zone% (49.6) is now below his career average (51.2), with a 1.8 K/BB that is just marginally better than 2008’s 1.63 showing.

Jason Frasor (Scott Downs on the DL with a toe injury), Blue Jays

Downs is down with a left big toe injury, so Frasor will handle closing duties for the time being. He gave up two walks and took a loss against the Nationals on the 19th, but he came back with a save against the Reds on the 23rd. Frasor’s walk rates have usually been lofty (6.08 BB/9 last year, 3.93 for his career), but the 31 year-old righty has issued just 1.75 BB/9 in 2009. It’s not as though he’s suddenly firing strike after strike: his 53 Zone% is right around his career average. Rather, Frasor has baited hitters into chasing 25.4% of his pitches off the plate, well above his 18.5% career mark.

Watch Your Back

Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

Howell collected a save versus the Mets on June 20th, and he hasn’t let up a run all month (9 IP, 11 K, 5 H). Howell has whiffed 10.9 hitters per nine innings, with a 68.8% contact rate that bests K-Rod. Yeah, he’s really good. Now if only we knew he’d keep the closer role..

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton continued to bellow fire and destroy hitters city by city, picking up two saves against the Rangers on the 13th and 14th and then working a scoreless inning in a non-save chance vs. the A’s last night. Big Jon now has a mind-boggling 53 K’s in 33 innings, with a 0.97 FIP. To put that strikeout figure in perspective, Broxton has more K’s than starters Kyle Davies, Jarrod Washburn, Jeremy Guthrie and Andy Pettitte, despite working 40+ fewer frames. I know it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison (K rates are higher for relievers), but that’s still insane.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell made just one trip to the mound this week, tossing a scoreless inning against the Angels on the 14th (a non-save situation). Heath’s K rate is up nearly two and a half per nine innings from last year (10.54 K/9 in ’09, 8.19 in ’08) and he has still yet to serve up a homer.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

In addition to participating in a bullpen brouhaha with Brian Bruney, K-Rod turned in a rough week at the office. Rodriguez blew a save against the Bombers on the 12th, then walked two while collecting a save against the O’s last night. He’s still nasty, but K-Rod’s contact rate has increased three years in a row (from 66 to 70 percent), while his first-pitch strike% has dipped from 57.2% in 2007 to 52.3% in 2009.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hell’s Bells surrendered his first run of the season, taking a loss against the White Sox on June 14th. Hoffman then recovered to collect his 16th save of the year against the Indians the next night. Trevor’s 1.44 WPA ranks in the top 15 among relievers, and he holds a 17/2 K/BB in 20 innings pitched.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls hasn’t been himself as of late, coughing up 4 runs in his last 3.2 innings while trying to pitch through a forearm strain. He normally pounds the strike zone (53.4% zone percentage this year), but that figure has actually been brought down by a 45.6% showing in June. With the D-Backs buried in the standings, perhaps Qualls would be best served by taking a week or two off.

In Control

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge on the DL with a knee injury)

Lidge threw a pain-free bullpen session on Tuesday, and will likely begin a rehab assignment this weekend. In the meantime, Madson chucked 4 innings this week. He picked up a save against the Mets on the 11th, whiffed three Red Sox hitters the next night and pitched another scoreless frame versus the Sox on the 14th. He did, however, blow a save against the Jays last night, walking two in the process. Madson still has a 1.24 WPA and a 3.36 K/BB ratio for the year.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero only tossed one inning this week, with a scoreless appearance against the Braves last night (no save, though). He has hasn’t yielded a home run in 28 innings. Cordero’s K rate is down for the third straight year (from 12.22 K/9 in ’07 to 8.36 this year), and his contact rate has risen from 64.5% in 2007 to 76.8% in 2009.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps collected two saves this week, subduing the Braves on the 11th and the Tigers on the 14th. After an early-season bout of wildness, Capps has issued just one walk in six innings this month. His WPA still sits at -0.58 for the year, though.

Huston Street, Rockies

The Rockies have been on a tear, taking 11 straight ballgames before last night’s loss to the Rays. Street snagged two saves this past week, and his K/BB now sits at an impressive 32/8 in 27 innings. Huston has tossed a first-pitch strike 65.8 percent of the time (57.9% MLB average).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde is back in action after a lengthy DL stint for a calf injury. Papa Grande got back into the swing of things with two non-save appearances against the venom less D-Backs on the 13th and 14th. He punched out 3 batters in the latter inning, and his fastball averaged 95 MPH over the two appearances.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin picked up 2 saves this week (on the 11th vs. the Marlins and the 13th vs. Cleveland), but he did surrender 5 hits in the process. Franklin has displayed sharp control (1.82 BB/9), but a few more base hits will likely fall in from here on out (his BABIP still sits at just .225, with an absurd 99% strand rate).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson got the save against Oakland on June 13th, but hasn’t worked since. The Giants stopper possesses a 96 MPH fastball which has been worth +1.36 runs per 100 pitches. His slider (-0.68)/cutter (-0.94) hasn’t been as dynamic, however.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Gonzo got beat up last evening, surrendering four runs in a rain-soaked affair with the Reds. Soriano also had has issues the past week, giving up 2 runs and taking a loss vs. the Pirates on the 11th. Here’s how the co-closers match up in a few important categories:

FIP: 3.29 Gonzo, 2.24 Soriano

WPA: 0.95 Gonzo, 1.78 Soriano

K/BB: 2.64 Gonzo, 3.36 Soriano

While Soriano has been better, Gonzalez has appeared in more crucial situations (2.00 Leverage Index for Gonzo, 1.74 for Soriano).

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom tossed just one inning this week, picking up a save vs. Toronto on June 13th. With 19 walks in 25.1 frames, the former Mets prospect has seen his FIP inflate from 3.27 in 2008 to 4.51 in 2009.

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Not to be rude, but does it even matter who the closer is for the Nats? Washington has dropped 4 games in a row, sits thirty games under .500 for the year and has a -85 run differential that’s 14 runs worse than San Diego.

MacDougal holds the mostly ceremonial title of Washington’s closer, but he has walked 11 batters in 11.1 innings, with a 4.68 FIP. You’d have to be pretty desperate to venture here.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman

Gregg chucked two scoreless innings in a non-save situation against Houston on the 12th, then threw another clean frame against the Twins the following night (non-save). It was a much-needed, quiet week from an off-season pickup who has often given Sweet Lou heartburn (4.75 FIP, with 44.5% of his pitches crossing the dish; the MLB average is 49).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera gave up another run this week, against the Mets on June 12th. Mo’s ERA sits at 3.25 and his 0.88 WPA is merely good as opposed to great, but it’s hard to be terribly concerned about a pitcher with a 33/3 K/BB in 27.2 innings. If you want to be pessimistic, Rivera’s 83.8% contact rate is his highest mark going back to 2002, and the run value on his cutter this season (+0.85 runs per 100 pitches) is also his lowest since ’02.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim had an uncharacteristically bumpy week, blowing a save versus Cleveland on the 11th (stupid seagulls!) and coughing up a run and a homer against the Reds on the 13th (Ohio is not Mr. Soria’s favorite state). The Mexicutioner has been plenty nasty (14 K’s in 12.2 IP), but his control has been a little off: 6 walks with just 45.1% of his pitches crossing home plate (54.5% in 2008).

Joe Nathan, Twins

With 2 saves against the water-treading Cubs on June 12th and 13th, Nathan now holds a 4.83 K/BB ratio (8th among relievers) and is back in the double digits in terms of K’s per nine innings (10.3). Joe’s 31.8 Outside-Swing% is his highest we have going back to 2002.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon is working on a seven-inning scoreless streak, and he has allowed just 1 hit in his last four appearances. Papelbon’s O-Swing% sits at 26.2%, below his 30.5% career mark. Hitters have hacked at 9 percent fewer of his offerings compared to last year, likely the result of Papelbon’s percent of pitches in the zone dropping from 54.5% in ’08 to 47.1% in ’09.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks blew a save and gave up a jack to Detroit’s Curtis Granderson on the 11th, then collected a save against the Brewers on the 14th. Bobby’s secondary offerings have been superb this season (+3.22 runs per 100 pitches on the slider, +1.71 on the curve), but his fastball (-0.96) hasn’t been as effective (+1.55 in ’07 and ’08).

Interestingly, the pitch is nearly 2 ticks faster than last year, but it has also shown nearly two additional inches of tailing action in on the hands of right-handed hitters. Jenks’ problems have come primarily against lefties (.893 OPS, .575 vs. RHB). It could just be a coincidence, but perhaps southpaws are more comfortable at the plate, with most everything Jenks throws to them on the outside edge of the plate.

Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson will get any saves with Frank on the DL) , Rangers

Francisco was placed on the DL again, and he hopes to return to Texas within the next 10 days. In the meantime, Wilson will continue to get the call in save situations. He’s getting plenty of grounders (56.6%), but his K/BB ratio sits at a mundane 1.58 and his WPA (0.01) is just slightly in the black.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Unfortunately, Downs suffered some sort of lower body injury in the 10th inning of last night’s contest with the Phillies. Based on performance, Jason Frasor (2.54 FIP, 6.33 K/BB ratio) would be the logical guy to take over the closer’s role if Downs goes on the DL, but it’s hard to say if the Jays would revert back to B.J. Ryan for the moment. Ryan’s fastball is still MIA, with an average speed of 87.5 MPH in June.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has seemingly shook off Ziegler in the contest to close out games for Oakland, a happy development for fantasy owners everywhere. The 6-3 rookie (on pace to throw 105 innings) has punched out 10.54 batters per nine innings, with a 2.87 FIP. The former starter has used his three-pitch mix to great effect: his fastball (+1.39), cutter (+1.57) and curveball (+3.59) have all befuddled batters.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood worked 2 scoreless frame in non-save situations on June 11th and 12th, and hasn’t taken the mound since. Kerry’s hopping mid-90’s heater hasn’t been particularly effective in 2009, with a run value of -1.9 per 100 pitches (+0.75 in 2008).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes got into just one game this week, notching his 17th save of the year against the Giants on the 15th. LA’s new closer hasn’t had a whole lot of success with his slurvy breaking ball this season (-1.87 runs per 100 pitches, +2.06 last season). With Fuentes locating just 45.3% of his offerings in the zone, opponents have cut their outside-swing% from 29.4% in 2008 to 23.6% this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, with a scoreless frame against the Braves in a non-save situation on the 13th. George has increasingly placed fewer pitches in the strike zone (55% in ’07, 50.1 in ’08 and 47.1 in ’09), but his O-Swing has also gone up for a third year (21.1 in ’07, 26.3 in ’08 and 29.7 in ’09).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Rodney picked up a save against Pittsburgh on June 12th, but he hasn’t taken the hill since. He had been doing a better job of hitting his spots in April and May, but Rodney’s percentage of pitches thrown over the plate (49.9%) is just slightly above the 49% average now after a turbulent June (43.8 Zone%). On the positive side, his groundball rate (56.5%) is well above his 45.7% average since 2002.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is headed back to the rotation. We think.)

With Morrow playing Hamlet yet again (to start, or not to start, that is the question), the ’06 first-rounder out of Cal has returned to the rotation. That apparently clears the way for Aardsma to keep the closer’s role, but he’s still playing with fire by walking nearly 6 hitters per nine innings. As a flyball pitcher flanked by three outstanding fielders in a homer-suppressing park, Aardsma is in a good spot. But still, the sub-.240 BABIP and 87.1% strand rate just aren’t going to keep up.

Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

Izzy is sadly headed for Tommy John surgery , and he may well have thrown his last pitch in the big leagues. Howell appears to be the man for the moment, and he’s certainly the option that fantasy folks were hoping for. The converted starter supplements his mild mid-80’s fastball with an outstanding curve and change. Howell has whiffed 40 in 32.1 frames, with a 67.3% contact rate that ranks 6th among relievers.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Oh no, Mo: Rivera was stung for 4 runs in 0.2 innings against the Rays on June 6th, before collecting saves against Tampa the next two nights. While there’s some “what’s wrong with Rivera?!” hysteria going around, the answer might simply be, not much. His 3.20 ERA looks inflated, but a .336 BABIP and a very high HR/FB rate (23.8%, compared to a 6.6% career average) portend to better days ahead. He has a 15.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio, folks. He’s okay.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria only got into one game this week (mop-up work in a 6-2 win over the Jays on the 6th), as the Royals plummet in the standings (10 losses in 11 games). Fun fact: Soria’s curve has been +2.7 runs above average in 2009 (7th among relievers), despite his throwing just 10.1 innings thus far.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan picked up two saves this week, against the Mariners on the 5th and the Athletics on the 9th. Joe’s 5.2 K/BB ratio is his highest mark since 2006, and he’s tossing a first-pitch strike 67.1 percent of the time (57.9% MLB average). He’s also jamming plenty of hitters, with a 21.7 infield/flyball percentage.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Boston’s stopper converted a save op versus the Tigers on June 4th, then pitched a scoreless inning in a losing effort against Texas on the 7th. Papelbon’s fastball (used nearly 80% of the time) hasn’t quite been the dominating offering of years past. His heater’s run value was +3.29 per 100 pitches in 2007 and +2.21 in 2008, but just +0.93 this season. Then again, an “off” year for the 28 year-old is still pretty darned good: his WPA sits at 1.57, 8th among relievers.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks gave up a run in a none-save situation vs. the Indians on the 5th, but came back to get a save the next night with a scoreless frame. Bobby has given up more dingers than one would expect (15 HR/FB%), but otherwise he has been quite good. His 3.4 K/BB ratio is well above last year’s 2.24 mark, and his contact rate is down about 6 percent from last season.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Unfortunately, Frank is still plagued by shoulder soreness. Francisco hasn’t pitched since June 3rd, making a retroactive DL stint a possibility. C.J. Wilson gets any chances that come until Francisco is mended, but his 16/12 K/BB ratio and -0.12 WPA will have you reaching for the Tums if you’re forced to turn to him.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

After issuing just 2 free passes during the entire month of May, Downs walked two in 2.1 innings this past week. He still owns a sterling 25 K’s and 4 walks in 25.1 innings, good for a 6.25 K/BB ratio that nearly triples last season’s mark.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood continues to be wild, with 2 walks in 2.1 saveless frames this past week. Unable to locate his fastball (which has gone from a +0.75 run value per 100 pitches in ’08 to a lousy -2.6 in ’09), Wood isn’t getting anyone to chase his stuff out of the zone. His 17.4 Outside-Swing% is fourth-worst among all relievers, with other control-challenged wrecks like Evan Meek and DFA’d Hayden Penn in the same neighborhood. With -0.1 WAR, Wood isn’t providing the kind of stability that the Tribe had in mind when they dished out 2 years and $20.5M on the free agent market.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes notched 3 saves this week, collecting one against the Jays on the 4th, the Tigers on the 5th and the Rays on the 9th. A .361 BABIP has done him no favors, though opponents are making contact against the former Rockie 79.5% of the time, well above any other season dating back to 2002. The increase has come primarily on pitches within the strike zone (88 Z-Contact% in 2009, compared to 80.4% in 2008; the MLB average is 87.7%).

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Luckily for fantasy owners, Bailey appears to be the man in Oakland. He picked up saves on the 7th and the 8th, and if he continues to get the call, he’ll be in “Death Grip” territory in short order. Bailey now has a 44/14 K/BB ratio in 37.1 innings, with a 2.92 FIP. The 25 year-old rookie has the stuff and strikeout potential to be an elite reliever.

George Sherrill, Orioles

George gave out a run and a walk over two appearances this week, notching a save against his former team (the Mariners) last night. Sherrill’s 3.04 BB/9 is the lowest rate of his career, though opposing hitters are increasingly making more contact with his stuff. Sherrill’s K rate, 11.04 per nine in ’07, dropped to 9.79 in ’08 and 8.37 this season. Over that same time frame, his Z-Contact rate (the contact rate on pitches within the strike zone) has jumped from 80.8 in ’07, 84.2 in ’08 and 92 in 2009. That’s the 9th-highest rate of zone contact among all relievers.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Uh oh: Rodney resembled his former wild-child self this past week. In 4 frames and five appearances, Fernando was torched for 6 runs and five walks, including 3 runs and 3 walks without getting an out versus the White Sox last night. Rodney had seemingly made strides in painting the corners, but he has located just 46.3% of his pitches within the zone during the month of June, compared to 48.8% in May and 58.7% in April.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Aardsma recovered from a bumpy 3-run fiasco on May 31st to post scoreless innings on June 3rd, 5th and 6th. He’s still asking for trouble, however, with 2 more walks in 3 innings. The chances of a guy remaining effective with a walk rate pushing six and a half are between slim and none. Selling high here would likely be the best option, unless you want to wager that Aardsma’s 87.1% strand rate (73.5% career average) and .247 BABIP (.316 career) will persist.

Morrow took baby steps toward reclaiming the ninth-inning gig, tossing 3 innings of scoreless baseball. Here’s a question: since we can pretty much rule out a return to the rotation for the former Cal star, would it be best for the M’s to leave Morrow where he is, soaking up a few innings at a time (4 of his last 6 relief appearances have gone 2 or more innings)? Why can’t Morrow become a Tekulve-like bullpen arm, going 2-3 innings every few days?

Update: Um, scratch that. Apparently, Morrow WILL go back to the rotation. Tune in tomorrow for the next episode of “As the Morrow Turns.”

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

So, who’s the guy here? Howell picked up a save against the Royals on June 4th, and he’s by far the most intriguing option. J.P. has K’d 11.1 batters per nine innings, with a 2.37 FIP. Southpaw specialist Choate also picked up a save, but he likely isn’t a serious contender. Howell is the most talented guy, but might he be better utilized in his customary 4 and 5 out appearances than in a strict, rigid 9th inning role?

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

It’s something of an upset when a batter makes contact against Big Jon these days, and downright stunning when the opposition actually plates a run. Broxton coughed a run against the Padres last night, but still tallied the save (his 14th). He struck out 7 hitters in three innings this week, taking his astronomical K rate up to 14.7. For reference, that’s nearly 2 whiffs per nine innings higher than second-place Matt Thornton.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath was a little wild this week, with 3 walks in 4 innings, but he locked up two more saves and punched out 5 batters as well. Bell has yet to give up a dinger in 25.1 innings (Thanks, PETCO!), and opponents have just a 13.8% line drive rate against San Diego’s stopper. Bell has a career-best 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings, the 8th-highest rate among relievers.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod chucked 3 scoreless innings this week, picking up two saves along the way. His 2.28 WPA trails only Broxton among all relievers, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (79.5%) is at its lowest rate since 2004. Rodriguez is generating a boatload of flyballs (52.2 FB%), but he’s also jamming plenty of batters with a career-high 20% infield/flyball rate.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

We’re now well into June, and Hoffman has still yet to give up a run in his Milwaukee threads. That’s 17 innings, for those of you scoring at home. His K/BB ratio is 15/1. A .175 BABIP and zero homers allowed help explain part of the run, but he’s also been pretty damned good. You could make the argument that his revered changeup has never been better, with a run value of +7.02 runs per 100 pitches (his best mark on record since 2002).

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls’ forearm tightness appears to be a little more troublesome than once thought. Said Qualls, “I don’t think it’s going to be something that’s going to just heal overnight.” If he has to miss any significant amount of time, either Tony Pena (3.07 FIP) or Juan Gutierrez (2.60) would likely get the call.

In Control

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge on the DL with a knee injury)

Just when it looked like Lidge was getting back on track, he blows back-to-back games against the Dodgers on June 5th and 6th (1.2 IP, 3 R) and then hits the DL with continued knee problems. It’s the same knee that Lidge had surgery on during the offseason.

With Lights Out knocked out, Madson will take the reins in Philly. His qualifications couldn’t be much stronger: the 6-6 righty has punched out 31 hitters in 28.1 frames and holds a 1.03 WPA. Madson sustained a spike in velocity from last summer, averaging a scorching 95 MPH with the pitch and backing it up with a devastating 83 MPH change as well as a 90 MPH cutter. Opponents are making contact with 78.2% of pitches thrown by Madson within the strike zone, one of the lowest rates among relievers, and his 33.5 Outside-Swing% ranks in the top 10 among ‘pen arms. If he’s available in your league? Run, don’t walk, to the waiver wire.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero chucked four scoreless frames this week, though only one came in a save opportunity. He has still yet to serve up a long ball in 26 innings. Cordero’s whiff rate is down for a third straight season (12.22 K/9 in 2007, 9.98 in 2008, 8.31 in 2009), and hitters are making contact at Coco’s offerings 76.2% of the time (the highest rate we have going back to 2002). On the positive side, a lot of that increased contact is coming on pitcher’s pitches thrown outside of the strike zone: his contact rate on pitches in the zone is largely unchanged, while his outside-contact% has spiked over the past three years (35.1% in ’07, 53.9 in ’08, 62.3 in ’09).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps collected a save against the Astros on June 6th, but that was the extent of his work for the week as the Pirates drop four of their last five contests. Exhibit A of why velocity isn’t everything for a pitcher: Capps’s fastball is cracking the radar gun at a career-best 93.3 MPH, but his run value with the pitch is at a career-worst +0.46 (1.73 in 2008 and 2.22 in 2007).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street racked up back-to-back saves on June 8th (Cardinals) and 9th (Brewers), taking him up to 10 for the season. Huston’s 3.57 K/BB is well above last year’s pace (2.56). His fastball has been roasted (-1.41 runs per 100 pitches), but his oft-utilized slider (+3.44) and re-emphasized changeup (+2.23) are getting the job done.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins tossed two innings this week, with a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against Pittsburgh on the 6th and a 1 inning, 1 run appearance against the Cubs the following night while picking up the save. Overall, it’s hard to quibble with Hawkins’ work while filling in for Valverde. He has nearly a K per inning (23 in 24.2 frames), and his emphasis on a high-80’s cutter/slider has been wise. The pitch has been worth +2.43 runs per 100 pitches.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin made just one appearance this week, tossing a scoreless frame in mop-up duty against the Rockies on June 7th. The former Mariner, Phillie and Red has a 16/5 K/BB ratio in 22 innings, with 13 saves in 14 chances. A .178 BABIP suggests that his tiny 1.23 ERA will rise in the coming months.

Brian Wilson, Giants

San Fran’s mohawked stopper hasn’t surrendered a run since May 21st, a stretch of 7.1 innings in which he has punched out 8 batters but also walked four. Wilson’s walk rate is up for the third straight season (2.66 BB/9 in ’07, 4.04 in ’08, 4.23 in ’09), and his First-Pitch Strike% is down for the third consecutive campaign (61.3, 57.7, 55.4; the MLB average is 57.9). Wilson’s WPA checks in at a tepid -0.72.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano picked up the save last evening versus the Pirates, running his scoreless innings streak up to 10.2 in the process. Like it or not, Braves skipper Bobby Cox continues to use his two relief aces in situations that best call for their skills, be that the 8th or 9th frame of the ballgame. With lefty Nyjer Morgan, switch-hitter Delywyn Young and southpaw Adam LaRoche due up, Cox called upon Gonzalez in the 8th inning. Gonzo hasn’t shown any sort of platoon split during his career (he has actually been somewhat better vs. RHB), but Morgan (career .566 OPS vs. LHP) and LaRoche (.749) have.

Gonzalez (8 saves) and Soriano (5) will likely continue this time-share for the rest of the year. It might be frustrating to fantasy owners, but it’s probably what’s best for the Braves.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom hacked up 2 runs and 2 walks against the Giants on June 6th, then picked up a W in a 4-3 contest with the Cardinals last night. His bread-and-butter heater has been worth -0.84 runs per 100 pitches, a marked dip from the +1.08 mark posted in 2008. With Lindstrom showing such poor control, opponents are smartly laying off his pitches (41 Swing Percentage, 10 percent lower than last year).

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Well, Hanrahan has apparently been booted from the closer role for what feels like the tenth time this season. Taking his place will be MacDougal, he of frequent injuries and a career walk rate of 4.58 per nine innings. The lanky right-hander has handed out 9 walks in 9 frames for the Nats. He’s pretty darned similar to Hanrahan from a performance standpoint, possessing tantalizing mid-90’s heat but generally having no idea where it’s headed.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman

By all accounts, Gregg is turning in a mediocre first season with the Cubs. The erstwhile Marlin is fooling his fair share of batters (9.95 K/9), but his walk rate is still over four and a half, with a 5.12 FIP and a WPA barely in the black (0.07).

Fortunately for Gregg, his control looks downright Maddux-esque compared to that of his set-up man. With a wicked (if wild) slider, Marmol has long made hitters look goofy. But his K rate is down for a third year (12.56 in ’07, 11.75 in ’08, 9.67 in ’09), and his walk rate has devolved from troublesome to untenable (27 free passes in 27 innings).

With the 8th and 9th inning dudes scuffling and the Cubbies bullpen doing sloppy work in general (27th in reliever FIP), could Guzman sneak his way into the competition? The perennial Venezuelan prospect has avoided the trainer’s table for a change, and he’s dealing: 25 whiffs and 8 walks in 27.2 innings. Blessed with mid-90’s gas and a devilish slider of his own, the 27 year-old bears watching. Guzman leads Chicago’s ‘pen arms in FIP and WPA.

With young pitchers Jason Motte and Chris Perez already filling important roles in the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen, the club has turned to another highly-rated relief prospect. Right-hander Jess Todd was promoted to The Show yesterday.

The 23-year-old hurler was the club’s second round draft pick out of the University of Arkansas in 2007. Todd flew through the minors and posted an overall ERA of just 2.87 in 235.2 innings of work. He spent time in college – as well as the low minors – as both a reliever and starter, but his approach and stuff is best-suited to relief work, which is the role he fulfilled at triple-A in 2009.

Todd allowed just 18 hits and seven walks (2.59 BB/9) in 24.1 innings of work this year. Opponents mustered just one home run (0.37 HR/9) against the hard-throwing reliever and struck out 32 times (11.84 K/9). Right-handed batters were hitting just .130 against Todd at triple-A, although lefties were hitting .297. His career splits are similar: .190 vs right-handed batters, .250 vs left-handed batters.

Todd is a sinker/slider pitcher, who can reach back and touch 94 mph with his fastball when he needs a little extra juice. His best pitch is his cutter, which is also the newest pitch in his arsenal. He’s done a good job of inducing ground balls with his sinker (career 50 GB%), and he has also limited the number of line drives hit against him (14%). Although he does not touch the mid-to-high 90s with has fastball like a lot of closers, Todd has the potential to be a dominating late-game reliever because of his combination of command/control, the movement on the cutter, and his ground-ball tendencies.

Here is a snippet from Todd’s 2007 pre-draft scouting report from Baseball America:

[Todd] opened the spring as the Razorbacks’ closer, and scouts envision him as a late-inning reliever in pro ball. Todd’s size (6 feet, 213 pounds) and violent delivery lend themselves more to that role, though he has shown a deep repertoire, command and durability as a college starter. His competitive nature will help succeed in either capacity.

With Motte (age 26) and Perez (23) also in the bullpen, the Cardinals organization has makings of a talented 1-2-3 punch at the back end of the bullpen, which could remain dominant for many years, barring injury.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

How dominant has Broxton been this season? Let’s count the ways:

– His FIP checks in at a subatomic 1.27
– His strikeout rate (14.19 K/9) would be pretty good if cut in half
– Broxton’s slider deserves its own “Chuck Norris facts” page: the wicked high-80’s offering has been worth +5.1 runs per 100 pitches.

Yeah, he’s pretty good.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath actually looked mortal this week, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs while blowing a save against the Rockies on May 30th. His K/BB ratio still comes in at 26/6 for the year, with a 1.17 WPA. Interestingly, Bell’s percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone has decreased every season since 2005, from 60.9% that year to just 46.2% in 2009 (49% MLB average). However, his Outside Swing% is also at an all-time high of 30.2% this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Frankie gave up 1 run in 3 innings of work this week, punching out 6 batters in the process but only getting one save. Rodriguez’s fastball (+0.76 runs per 100 pitches), curve (+1.31) and change (+3.89) have all been effective in his first campaign in Queens.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls took some time off this week due to forearm tightness, missing four games. The club isn’t said to be deeply concerned. Qualls notched a save against the Braves on May 28th before the forearm started barking.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman enters “Death Grip” real estate, as he has been better in Milwaukee than just about anyone could have hoped for. With two clean saves this week, the longtime Padre now has a 15-inning scoreless streak going. The wacky .175 BABIP and 0.0 HR/FB% just won’t continue, but it’s hard to argue with a 14/1 K/BB ratio. Hoffman’s modest mid-80’s heater (+4.35 runs per 100 pitches), slider (+3.47) and changeup (+6.47) are firing on all cylinders.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

After surrendering a stunning 13 runs in 10 innings from May 5th to the 24th, Lidge is beginning to make amends with five scoreless appearances and five saves since. The Notre Dame product has a 5/1 K/BB ratio during that stretch, and his velocity is trending up (the right-hand portion of the graph is 2009):

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero made only one appearance this week, with a save against the Cardinals on June 1st. After issuing 4.86 BB/9 last season, Cincy’s closer has walked 2.86 per nine innings in 2009. Perhaps that has something to do with his pitch selection: after tossing a slider 37.3% of the time in 2008 and featuring his fastball just 52%, Cordero has reduced his slider usage to 21.6% in 2009 with a big bump in heaters (68.4%).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps received just about the best news possible after nearly having his arm torn off by a Geovany Soto line drive: he just had a really nasty bruise. Instead of hitting the DL, the 255 pound right-hander collected 3 saves (one against Houston on May 30th and two against the Mets on June 1st and 2nd). The saves against New York came without a walk, good news considering his prior control issues. Capps has located 53.1% of his pitches within the strike zone. That’s still 4 percent above the league average, but it’s also a far cry from his 59.5% career average.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin worked 3.1 innings this week, with two saves, one walk and a K. Considering that his FIP (3.73) is leaps and bounds above his ERA (1.29), Franklin seems like a good candidate to regress. On the positive side, his 80.7% contact rate is just around the major league average, and is his lowest mark we have on record going back to 2002.

Huston Street, Rockies

Huston had an up-and-down week. He worked a scoreless inning vs. the Dodgers on May 27th, then picked up a save against the Padres on the 29th. Unfortunately, he gave up a run the following night against San Diego, then blew a save against the Astros last night while issuing 2 walks. However, Street has done a nice job for the most part (24/7 K/BB ratio in 22.1 IP), and it’s not as though the Rockies are rife with possible replacements.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson is back on his feet following a nasty run of appearances in the middle of May (7 runs from May 14th to the 21st). He has 4 scoreless innings to his name since then, with 3 saves and zero walks allowed. Opponents have typically chased very few of Wilson’s pitches out of the strike zone (18.7% career), but he got them to offer at 36.8% of such pitches this past week.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins closed the door versus the Bucs on May 31st and the Rockies on June 1st, then tossed another scoreless frame against Colorado the following night. His 2.75 K/BB ratio is his best mark since 2004, and his hard slider/cutter has been worth +3.22 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Hawkins has increased the usage of the pitch, from 19.7% in ’09 to 27.1% this year.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

With 12.52 K/9, Gonzalez is mowing down hitters at the highest rate of his career. He still gives Bobby Cox heartburn some nights, though, with 4.3 BB/9. Soriano, meanwhile, has also used his fastball/slider combo to good effect (12.17 K/9, 3.04 BB/9). Per FIP (Soriano 2.14, Gonzo 3.07) and WPA (Soriano 1.69, Gonzalez 0.51), Rafael has been the better option.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom remains on precarious ground, with a ghastly 22/17 K/BB ratio in 21.2 IP. His blistering mid-to-high 90’s fastball was worth +1.08 runs per 100 pitches last year, but that number has dipped all the way to -1.15 in 2009. Lindstrom’s loss of the strike zone is a continuation of a troubling three-year trend:

2007: 2.82 BB/9, 54.0 Zone% (% of pitches in strike zone)
2008: 4.08 BB/9, 51.5 Zone%
2009: 7.06 BB/9, 48.3 Zone%

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Is there a less relevant fantasy position than Nationals closer? It’s sort of like the baseball version of the Indianapolis Colts punter; someone is ostensibly paid to do the job, we just never see him. With a -64 run differential and a 14-36 record, there just aren’t that many chances. The recently activated MacDougal could also work his way into this jumble of relievers, which holds an abysmal -5.67 team WPA (last in the majors).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg was smacked around yet again last night, coughing up 2 runs and blowing a save against the Braves. Like Lindstrom, Gregg just continues to see his control erode:

2006: 2.41 BB/9, 53.1 Zone%
2007: 4.29 BB/9, 50.4 Zone%
2008: 4.85 BB/9, 49.5 Zone%
2009: 5.24 BB/9, 43.7 Zone%