Predictably, there was a lot of movement on the closer chart this week as some surprising names had big opening weeks.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: After a brutal spring, Capps is leading the NL in saves with three in as many chances. The Nats won’t win a lot of games but, when they do, they’ll probably be close contests, which will result in plenty of save opportunities. Be cautious of Capps’ control issues (five walks in four innings). Capps and his teammates now move on to face the potent Phillies offense.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: Mr. Inconsistent has been pretty solid so far with two saves, as well as just one hit and one walk in 2.1 innings of work. He also has five Ks. Marmol just might eat the Brewers and Astros alive.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Mr. Wilson was quite good this past week. He saved two games in as many tries and he struck out four batters. The Giants pitchers will look to dominate that Pirates and Dodgers lineups this week.

Heath Bells | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Bell is 2-for-2 in save opportunities and he has yet to allow an earned run. He has walked two batters with two strikeouts.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: If you were lucky enough to have Nunez, then you enjoyed a week of two saves and one win. He’s also tossed in three Ks for good measure. Watch out going forward, though, as he’s walked four batters and has a blown save. Nunez could be in tough this week against the Reds and Phillies.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: He has just one save to his credit, but Dotel allowed just one hit and one walk in 3.0 innings. He also added three Ks.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: It’s been a rough week in LA, which has resulted in zero saves for Broxton. He is, though, racking up the strikeouts so it’s probably only a matter of time before he gets hot.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero has two saves, five Ks and has yet to issue a walk – but he’s also allowed five hits and a home run. He’s getting the job done, but he’s also not fooling a lot of people.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: He hasn’t had any save opportunities but Rodriguez has yet to allow an earned run in 3.0 innings. He also has three Ks, one walk and two hits allowed. After a disappointing start for the team, things do not get any easier with having to face Colorado and St. Louis.

Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: So far, so… OK. Madson has one save in as many tries, but he’s allowed four hits in 2.1 innings. Injured incumbent Brad Lidge is inching closer to a return.

Franklin Morales | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Like Lidge, Huston Street is working his way back to health. Morales had an OK week with two saves in as many tries. He hasn’t walked or struck out anyone.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Health Report:
The Comments: He got the job done with one save in as many tries, but also gave up two hits (including a homer) in two innings. Qualls will face some struggling teams this week in the Padres and Dodgers.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Yes, he has two saves, but he’s also allowed four hits and two runs in 3.0 innings of work. He also has yet to strike out a batter.

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Two blown saves in four tries is pretty rough, and the 13.50 ERA is not going to help your fantasy team. Hoffman got hit pretty hard in the first week of baseball.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Six Ks and no walks looks pretty good, but the 6.00 ERA and one blown save in two tries is not inspiring. The Padres and Rockies are up next.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: The ugly first week for the Astros resulted in zero save opps for Lindstrom, who allowed two earned runs in as many innings. At least he didn’t walk anyone. Things do not get easier this week with the club facing St. Louis and Chicago.

None

There was a quick hook for one closer, who lost his job in Week 1 – and another stopper is not far from losing his gig, as well. Our Closer of the Week is a surprising name and someone who entered spring training without the title of closer.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: The Closer of the Week has Minnesota fans saying: “Joe Nathan, who?” Rauch was a perfect 4-for-4, but he allowed five hits in 4.0 innings of work. He’ll certainly be tested against the Red Sox before moving on to the Royals.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Mr. Automatic continues to delivery with two saves in as many tries. He allowed two hits and one walk in 3.0 innings. His ERA is still perfect. The Angels and Rangers teams will offer some stiff competition in the week ahead.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma was a perfect 2-for-2 and he did not allow a hit or a walk in 2.0 innings. He also struck out four batters.

Jason Frasor | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: There were so many save opportunities to be had for the Jays this past week that Frasor received three saves and back-up closer Kevin Gregg also recorded two. Frasor was not perfect, though, as he blew another opportunity (He took the loss) and allowed six hits and three walks in 3.1 innings of work.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria was 1-for-2 in save opps but he did not allow a walk and struck out four batters. It was a ‘Meh’ week.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: Bailey made three appearances without allowing an earned run, but he gave up three hits and struck out just one batter. No save opportunities were to be had in the first week of the season. Tyson Ross ended up with a three-inning save on Sunday, but Bailey’s job is safe.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes made just one appearance this week and saved the game without allowing a hit or a walk in one inning. The Angels are in tough this week against the Yankees and red-hot Blue Jays.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Soriano got the job done with one save and a win in two appearances. However, he allowed four hits and one walk (and did not record a strikeout) in 2.0 innings.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Valverde went 1-for-2 in save opps, while also taking a loss. He allowed four hits and one walk in 3.0 innings. Ryan Perry also recorded a save during this past week. The club will face the Royals and Mariners this week, so it should mean a good number of save opportunities.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks saved the game during his only opportunity for the week and he also struck out five batters in 3.0 innings of work.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Papelbon had a bit of a rough week with a loss and an ERA of 5.40 in 3.1 innings. He gave up two runs, including a homer. As well, his control was off with two walks allowed. He did, though, still record two saves. Papelbon will face the Twins and Rays this week.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: The young closer, who is filling in for the injured Kerry Wood, was 2-for-3 in saves and allowed three runs in three innings on three hits and four walks. He struck out just one batter and took the loss on Sunday. The Rangers and White Sox are on tap, which means two pretty good offenses.

Frank Francisco | Texas Rangers
The Comments: It’s Neftali Feliz time already. Francisco was on a pretty short leash, although he did blow both of his save opportunities. The right-hander allowed eight hits and six runs in 2.0 innings. Don’t be too quick to jump on Feliz, though. The youngster could have some growing pains, but he’ll ease into his new position by facing the Royals… and then the Yankees.

Mike Gonzalez | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: Gonzalez isn’t officially unemployed quite yet but it was an ugly week for the O’s new closer. He has an 18.00 ERA after three games and has blown two saves (with one converted). Five hits and four walks in 2.0 innings is definitely not going to get the job done. Unless things improve quickly, Jim Johnson could be in line for some saves soon.

This post comes to you all the way from Tokyo town. I just flew here today (yesterday? tomorrow?) and boy are my arms tired. (badum-ching!) As you can tell, it’s been a looong day. Let me quickly get to a couple waiver wire ideas before I pass out.

Shaun Marcum
Our shallow league special won’t be on the wire long, but if you missed out, don’t worry. There’s plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Mr. Marcum. First, even before he missed all of 2009 with elbow surgery, he hasn’t been the picture of health. His major league high is 159 major league innings in a season, and 168 total innings in a season. He doesn’t have a nice K/9 (7.13 career) or ground ball rate (40.3% career), and though his career ERA looks okay (3.95), his career FIP is much less interesting (4.81). That’s probably because he’s somehow managed to put together 400+ innings with a .273 BABIP. In his first start he had a sparkling .068 BABIP even. If it wasn’t such an obvious idea, actually, it seems that the best move here would be to sell high. Here’s a bet his ERA ends up in the low 4s where it belongs with his peripherals.

Dexter Fowler
It takes a little deeper bench in order to take advantage of the fact that Fowler is being summarily dropped in many leagues, but the reward is there for the patient manager. While Seth Smith is definitely a nice pickup in most leagues since he’s getting the lion’s share of at-bats by taking on righties, Fowler is not yet chopped liver. Obviously, the team is looking at Fowler’s nice .322/.374/.470 major league line against lefties (and his correspondingly putrid .228/.343/.353 line against righties) and making what they believe to be the best short-term move for the team. The problem is that this split has only come in 461 total major league at-bats (which is not a significant level for splits like these), and his minor league splits were non-existent (.843 OPS vs lefties, .859 OPS vs righties). Expect Fowler’s upside to will out and force some sort of move by management (Brad Hawpe, I’m looking at you), and in the meantime, just put him on your bench and slot him in against lefties. You’ll enjoy both short- and long-term return.

Scott Downs
The deep league special is a speculative play based on an incredibly tiny sample size seen in one light. Yes, Jason Frasor blew one save. And yes, it’s one inning. And yes, he probably won’t be removed from the closer’s role in Toronto today. On the other hand, Downs has been amazingly consistent for three years now (FIPs around 3.33 all three years), and managers love consistency. Compare Frasor’s range on his FIPs (2.99 to 4.55) and you’ll see that it’s not at all assured who’s going to have the better year in that pen this year. Throw in the fact that Frasor has been linked to the Twins in trade rumors, and Downs looks like a good bet if you’re a-speculatin’.

We took a look at the National League closers earlier today. Now it’s time to see how the American League firemen look for Week 1 of the 2010 MLB season.

The Top Tier

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club opened the season against Boston last night and will then head to Tampa Bay to finish the week. You can expect Mariano to help close out a game or two (or three) this week despite the stiff competition.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: After what will no doubt be a grueling series against New York, things will get a little easier for the club as it heads to Kansas City.

The Middle Tier

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Although it will have the home field advantage all week, the club could be in tough against both the re-tooled Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox. This may not be a great week to start Soria as your No. 1 closer.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Health Report: Knee soreness
The Comments: The A’s club will be busy this week with seven games in as many days, so Bailey could see a few save opportunities. The team will be at home with Seattle for four games before heading out to Los Angeles.

The Third Tier

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: It’s an AL East week with the club hosting the Orioles and then the New York Yankees. Soriano could have a save opportunity or two against Baltimore but things will definitely get tougher against New York.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Valverde could be a busy man this week as the Tigers club is set to face the Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Indians. You can’t ask for a more favorable start to the season. If you have Valverde, get him in your fantasy lineup.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Health Report: Returning from calf injury
The Comments: Jenks may not be at 100% but he’ll be able to ease into things against the Cleveland Indians. The club will then face a stiffer challenge when it hosts the Twins.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club does not project to score a lot of runs this season so if it can keep the Oakland and Texas hitters off the score sheet then Aardsma could have some save opportunities this week.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Angels will open the year by hosting the Twins and the A’s. It should be two exciting series, which could result in some close games.

Frank Francisco | Texas Rangers
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Rangers will open the year by hosting the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners. Texas certainly has the firepower to beat up on Toronto’s unproven pitching. Seattle’s pitching staff has a lot of question marks, too.

Mike Gonzalez | Baltimore Orioles
The Health Report: Recovering from back injury
The Comments: The club will have to scratch and claw for wins against the talent, young Rays team. Things get easier when Toronto comes to town for the weekend, although both clubs are basically in rebuilding mode.

Jason Frasor | Toronto Blue Jays
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Toronto will open the year in Texas and then head to Baltimore. The first series could be tough if Texas’ hitters are on their game. Things get a little easier with the relocation to Baltimore, but there are some talented, young players on that club.

The Fill-Ins

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club will face a tough opening week on the road against Los Angeles and then Chicago. Rauch will be in tough against two promising teams; he’ll also be looking to prove that the club does not need to go out and trade for Heath Bell.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Indians club does not project as one of the top teams in the AL Central this season and the club could be in tough to begin the year. Perez will be in tough against both the White Sox and the Tigers if his team can get a lead to him for the ninth inning.

There hasn’t been much movement amongst the closers since we took a look last week, but here is a quick look at how the closers for each National League club match up during Week 1 of the MLB 2010 season.

The Top Tier

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Broxton could be in line to carve up some saves as the club lines up against Pittsburgh and Florida for the first week of the season. On the down side, the club may score too many runs – especially against the lowly Pirates.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Well, he’s still in San Diego. The club will open the year on the road and the offense could be flowing with trips to Arizona and Colorado so save opportunities may be hard to come by for Bell.

The Middle Tier

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Giants club will face the Astros (in Houston) and Braves (in San Francisco) during the first week of the season. The club matches up well against Houston and should be able to take at least two wins. It will be a tougher series against Atlanta, but that could also make for some close games.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Health Report: Recovered from pink eye
The Comments: It would be understandable if Rodriguez’ head was somewhere else this week after two of his brothers were seriously injured in an automobile accident. Series against the Marlins and Nationals could result in a number of save opportunities.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The team will be in tough in Atlanta and will face three solid pitchers. The Cubs will then go to Cincinnati. Marmol had a rough spring and is probably on a short leash, but he has some dominating stuff when he can command it.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Reds club will begin the year at home against both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs. Clearly, it will be a challenging first week. Cordero did not allow an earned run in spring training, so he looks to open the season strong.

The Third Tier

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Brewers gave Hoffman a late start to spring training and the oldest closer in the game did not look sharp. The club opens the year at home against the Rockies and the Cardinals so there could a lot of offense.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Braves open the year at home against the Cubs and then head out of the road to San Francisco. The first series should features some close games, which could give Wagner a couple of saves opportunities.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club will be on the road in Cincinnati and Milwaukee and match up well against the two clubs so Franklin should get some early opportunities to prove ’09 was not a fluke.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Qualls looks to be recovered from knee surgery. The club will host the Padres and the Pirates so the Diamondbacks certainly have a chance to win some games in the first week, which should provide Qualls with some save opportunities.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Health Report: Returning from oblique injury
The Comments: The club will be in tough at home against Los Angeles and then on the road in Arizona. Dotel is not the most reliable closer in the game.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club will head to New York for the opening series before returning home to face the Dodgers.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: It will be a tough opening series against the Philadelphia Phillies but things will then get a little easier against the Mets. I don’t foresee a ton of save opportunities in the first week for Capps.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Astros will be in even tougher than the Nationals, as the club is set to face both San Francisco and Philadelphia during the opening week of the season. On the plus side, all six games will be in Houston.

The Fill-Ins

Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
The Health Report:
The Comments: With Brad Lidge out, Madson will be the go-to guy early on in the season. The youngster could be in line for some save opportunities in the first week of the season with the club matching up well against the Nationals and the Astros.

Franklin Morales | Colorado Rockies
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club will be on the road against Milwaukee before returning home to face San Diego on the weekend. Morales is in line for saves with Huston Street on the DL, but the youngster had a bumpy spring.

Earlier this week we opened our 2010 Closer Report series with a look at the American League closers. Today, we’re looking at the National League.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (#3 in MLB)
The Man: Jonathan Broxton
The Pitch: 97 mph fastball (1.45 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Broxton enters his second full season as the Dodgers’ closer and he could be primed for a 40-save season. He’s almost impossible to hit (44 hits in 76.0 innings, 13.50 K/9). Sherrill is a pretty good short-term insurance policy, but not long-term.

The Back-up(s): George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso
The Future: Josh Lindblom, Kenley Jansen

2. San Francisco Giants (#5 in MLB)
The Man: Brian Wilson
The Pitch: 96 mph fastball (1.64 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Wilson has 79 saves over the past two seasons and showed significant improvement from ’08 to ’09, which is very encouraging. Along with 35+ saves, he should produce a 10.00+ strikeout rate (K/9) in 2010.

The Back-up(s): Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo
The Future: Waldis Joaquin, Dan Runzler

3. San Diego Padres (#6 in MLB)
The Man: Heath Bell
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball (1.72 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Bell has been a quality reliever for the Padres but he could be on the move by the trade deadline if a desperate club matches the organization’s demands. Another 40-save season could be in order.

The Back-up(s): Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams
The Future: Unclear

4. New York Mets (#7 in MLB)
The Man: Francisco Rodriguez
The Pitch: Change-up (3.44 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Recovering from pink eye
The Comments: Rodriguez has pretty much remade his approach over the past two seasons by ditching his slider and focusing on his curveball and change-up as his secondary pitches. The change-up has developed into a real weapon for him. Keep an eye on him, though, as his numbers are starting to erode (5.03 BB/9, lowest K/9 of his career).

The Back-up(s): Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green
The Future: Unclear

5. Chicago Cubs (#9 in MLB)
The Man: Carlos Marmol
The Pitch: Slider (1.12 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: With the inconsistent Kevin Gregg now in Toronto, the closer’s gig in Chicago belongs solely to Marmol. If he can find the plate (7.91 BB/9 in ’09), Marmol could be an impact closer, as he’s been almost impossible to hit over the past two seasons (83 hits in 161.1 innings).

The Back-up(s): John Grabow, Jeff Samardzija
The Future: Esmailin Caridad, Marcos Mateo

6. Cincinnati Reds (#10 in MLB)
The Man: Francisco Cordero
The Pitch: 95 mph fastball (1.17 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Cordero has tallied 34+ saves in five of the past six seasons, and a total of 117 over the past three years. On the downside, his strikeout rate has dropped from 12.22 to 9.98 to 7.83 K/9.

The Back-up(s): Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset
The Future: Brad Boxberger

7. Colorado Rockies (#13 in MLB)
The Man: Huston Street
The Pitch: Slider (4.46 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Injured (Shoulder, 2-4 weeks)
The Comments: Street rediscovered his closer’s touch in ’09 with the Rockies and blew just two saves in 37 opportunities. He also showed improved control and posted a 10.22 K/9 rate. His fly-ball tendencies are mildly concerning, as is the shoulder discomfort, which should keep him out for at least half of April.

The Back-up(s): Franklin Morales, Manny Corpas
The Future: Franklin Morales, Rex Brothers

8. Milwaukee Brewers (#15 in MLB)
The Man: Trevor Hoffman
The Pitch: Change-up (3.95 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy (but old)
The Comments: The 42-year-old vet had a huge bounce-back season in ’09 with 37 saves in 41 opportunities. He should break 600 career saves by the middle or end of May.

The Back-up(s): Todd Coffey, LaTroy Hawkins
The Future: Zach Braddock

9. Atlanta Braves (#18 in MLB)
The Man: Billy Wagner
The Pitch: Slider (3.72 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Upper-respiratory illness
The Comments: Wagner, 38, is nearing the end of a great career. He’s pitched in just 62 games over the past two seasons so you have to be worried about his durability.

The Back-up(s): Takashi Saito, Pete Moylan
The Future: Craig Kimbrel

10. St. Louis Cardinals (#20 in MLB)
The Man: Ryan Franklin
The Pitch: Cutter (2.04 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Franklin was a real good story in ’09 by saving 38 games in 43 tries for the Cardinals – He entered the season with just 18 career saves. Be wary of the 37-year-old hurler, who is likely to be over-valued on draft day.

The Back-up(s): Jason Motte
The Future: Jason Motte, Eduardo Sanchez

11. Arizona Diamondbacks (#22 in MLB)
The Man: Chad Qualls
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball (0.55 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy, but coming off knee surgery
The Comments: The 31-year-old Qualls saved 24 games in ’09 – the first time he’s reached double-digits in saves in his career. He’s by no means an over-powering reliever, but the team should hand him a large number of opportunities.

The Back-up(s): Bob Howry, Juan Gutierrez
The Future: Traded away (Daniel Schlereth)

12. Pittsburgh Pirates (#23 in MLB)
The Man: Octavio Dotel
The Pitch: Slider (1.44 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Minor oblique injury
The Comments: Dotel has closing experience, but he’s coming off a season with the White Sox in which he recorded zero saves. Despite that, he’s posted a K/9 rate of 10.83 or better in each of the past three seasons. He’s injury-prone and not getting any younger (36).

The Back-up(s): Joel Hanrahan, Brendan Donnelly
The Future: Unclear

13. Florida Marlins (#24 in MLB)
The Man: Leo Nunez
The Pitch: Slider (1.55 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Nunez is the club’s undisputed closer simply because the organization has no one better. The right-hander saved 26 games last year but blew seven saves and he’s been pretty bad this spring.

The Back-up(s): Dan Meyer, Taylor Tankersley
The Future: Ryan Tucker

14. Washington Nationals (#25 in MLB)
The Man: Matt Capps
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball (-0.63 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Capps is coming off of back-to-back 20+ save seasons with Pittsburgh but his fastball value has been on a steady decline from 2.22 to 1.73 to -0.63 wFB/C. His secondary pitches were also inconsistent in ’09 and Capps has not performed well this spring.

The Back-up(s): Brian Bruney, Jason Bergmann
The Future: Drew Storen

15. Philadelphia Phillies (#26 in MLB)
The Man: Brad Lidge
The Pitch: 95 mph fastball (1.07 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Knee/Elbow injuries (Out 2-4 weeks)
The Comments: Lidge is likely to miss the first part of April while recovering from off-season surgeries. Considering how toxic he was last season, Lidge could permanently lose his job to Ryan Madson if the youngster can establish himself early on.

The Back-up(s): Ryan Madson, Danys Baez
The Future: Ryan Madson, Scott Mathieson

16. Houston Astros (#28 in MLB)
The Man: Matt Lindstrom
The Pitch: 96 mph fastball (-0.80 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: For a team that spent as much money this past off-season on the bullpen, the Astros organization is in pretty poor shape (which speaks volumes). Lindstrom failed miserably as the Marlins’ closer in ’09 but he was battling injuries so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt… for now.

The Back-up(s): Brandon Lyon, Sammy Gervacio
The Future: Sammy Gervacio, Chia-Jen Lo

Welcome to the first official RotoGraphs Closer Report for 2010. It’s been an eventful spring for closers already, with a handful of firemen already hitting the DL. The loss of Minnesota’s Joe Nathan has been the biggest blow so far.

1. New York Yankees (#1 in MLB)
The Man: Mariano Rivera
The Pitch: Cutter, 2.03 wCT/c (runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: He’s a frickin’ robot
The Comments: If you squint really, really hard you can see some possible signs of decline (highest FIP since 2000, highest HR/9 in his career) but you can also come up with explanations for the numbers. In truth, there really is nothing here that suggests a decline is coming in 2010 for the 40 year old.

The Back-up(s): Joba Chamberlain
The Future: Joba Chamberlain

2. Boston Red Sox (2)
The Man: Jonathan Papelbon
The Pitch: 95 mph fastball, 1.43 wFB/c
The Health Report: He’s had shoulder woes in the past
The Comments: Papelbon wasn’t able to follow up on his outstanding ’08 season but he could see more success in 2010 if he can get his ground-ball rate back up around 50% (It was at 26.7% in ’09). His fastball value has diminished over the past three seasons and it’s worth monitoring.

The Back-up(s): Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard
The Future: Daniel Bard

3. Kansas City Royals (4)
The Man: Joakim Soria
The Pitch: Curveball, 4.86 wCB/c
The Health Report: Shoulder woes derailed him in ’09
The Comments: With a significant drop in fastball value, Soria may want to rely on his breaking ball a little more often in 2010 (12% in ’09) if the heater doesn’t rebound. Even with his health woes and loss of success with his fastball, Soria struck out batters at a career-high rate: 11.72 K/9.

The Back-up(s): Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz
The Future: Joakim Soria

4. Oakland Athletics (8)
The Man: Andrew Bailey
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 2.10 wFB/c
The Health Report: All systems go
The Comments: Bailey allowed just 49 hits in 83.1 innings of work in ’09 and he displayed the best control of his pro career (2.59 BB/9). Some regression is to be expected during his sophomore season so don’t overpay for his services.

The Back-up(s): Brad Ziegler
The Future: Bailey is the present and the future.

5. Tampa Bay Rays (11)
The Man: Rafael Soriano
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.42 wFB/c
The Health Report: Checkered past, but healthy this spring
The Comments: The Rays desperately need a healthy season from Soriano as the club has already lost J.P. Howell (17 saves in ’09) to injury. Even without considering his past health issues, Soriano is a high-risk, high-reward closer who has only had double-digit saves once in his eight-season career (27 in ’09).

The Back-up(s): Dan Wheeler
The Future: Jacob McGee

6. Detroit Tigers (12)
The Man: Jose Valverde
The Pitch: 96 mph fastball, 0.75 wFB/c
The Health Report: His ’09 calf injury is not considered chronic
The Comments: After back-to-back 40+ save seasons in ’07 and ’08, Valverde slipped to just 25 in ’09. Despite having good heat, the closer’s fastball has never been a dominating pitch; his splitter has potential but it’s inconsistent. He’ll be joining the American League in 2010 for the first time in his career.

The Back-up(s): Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya
The Future: Ryan Perry and/or Daniel Schlereth

7. Chicago White Sox (14)
The Man: Bobby Jenks
The Pitch: Curveball, 3.87 wCB/c
The Health Report: Struggling with a calf injury
The Comments: After saving 40+ games in each of his first two seasons as closer, Jenks has dipped to 30 and 29 over the past two seasons. A calf injury kept fellow closer Jose Valverde out for almost two months in ’09 so Matt Thornton could be pressed into duty, which may not be a bad thing; he might be a better closer option even if Jenks was healthy.

The Back-up(s): Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz
The Future: TBD

8. Seattle Mariners (16)
The Man: David Aardsma
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 1.78 wFB/c
The Health Report: Some groin soreness, but relatively healthy
The Comments: Given a legitimate shot to close at the MLB level for the first time in his career, Aardsma did not disappoint with 38 in 42 tries. He allowed just 49 hits in 71.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 10.09 K/9. Aardsma has a history of inconsistency and control issues (4.29 BB/9 in ’09), though.

The Back-up(s): Mark Lowe, Brandon League
The Future: TBD

9. Los Angeles Angels (17)
The Man: Brian Fuentes
The Pitch: 90 mph fastball, 0.81 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Angels clubs always seems to get save opportunities for its closer and Fuentes led the Majors in saves in ’09 with 48. The 34-year-old reliever doesn’t have the most dominating stuff, but he’s saved 20 or more games over the past five seasons. His fastball was his only positive-valued pitch in ’09.

The Back-up(s): Fernando Rodney
The Future: Kevin Jepsen (Hat tip to Jeremy Greenhouse)

10. Texas Rangers (19)
The Man: Frank Francisco
The Pitch: Splitter, 1.45 wSF/c
The Health Report: Looking good
The Comments: Mr. Inconsistent has all the ingredients to be a successful closer but he needs to put it all together and keep his head screwed on straight. The 29.5% ground-ball rate from ’09 scares me more than a little bit.

The Back-up(s): C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray
The Future: Tanner Scheppers

11. Baltimore Orioles (21)
The Man: Mike Gonzalez
The Pitch: Slider, 1.09 wSL/c
The Health Report: Wonky back, and he missed big parts of ’07 and ’08 (TJ surgery)
The Comments: Gonzalez got good money to sign as the club’s closer but he played second fiddle to Rafael Soriano in Atlanta last season and the former Pirate blew seven saves in 17 opportunities. Even so, he has the stuff to close if his control is anywhere close to average.

The Back-up(s): Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara
The Future: Kam Mickolio or Brandon Erbe

12. Toronto Blue Jays (27)
The Man: Kevin Gregg
The Pitch: 92 mph fastball, 0.59 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Gregg may walk a rotting tight rope during each save opportunity, but the dude is durable after appearing in 70+ games each of the past three seasons. He’s also blown 16 saves over the past two seasons (68 opportunities). Jason Frasor is likely trade bait by the end of the spring if the Jays get a good offer and there are clubs that could use his help.

The Back-up(s): Scott Downs, Jason Frasor
The Future: Zach Stewart and/or Danny Farquhar

13. Cleveland Indians (29)
The Man: Kerry Wood
The Pitch: Curveball, 1.61 wCB/c
The Health Report: Down and out for 6-8 weeks (lat muscle)
The Comments: Wood knows the infirmary well, but this injury may be a good thing. The club is not going to win in 2010 so some of the young pitchers might as well gain some valuable, late-game experience. Chris Perez has the pedigree and is coming off of a successful sophomore season, but he also has control (4.26 BB/9) and gopher (1.26 HR/9) issues.

The Back-up(s): Chris Perez, Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez
The Future: Chris Perez and/or Jess Todd

14. Minnesota Twins (30)
The Man: Joe Nathan
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.66 wFB/c
The Health Report: Done for 2010 and into 2011
The Comments: Nathan was trying to avoid it, but finally gave in on Sunday and is headed for Tommy John surgery. Mijares is young and inexperienced, but he has a good fastball/slider combination. Guerrier is more about pitchability than pure stuff but he could have success pounding the strike zone with three quality pitches.

The Back-up(s): Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier
The Future: Carlos Gutierrez and/or Billy Bullock

Up Next: The National League Closers

According to Tom Singer of MLB.com, Cleveland Indians closer Kerry Wood could miss up to two months with a strained latissimus muscle. The 32 year-old Wood, who inked a two-year, $20.5 million deal prior to the 2009 season, posted just 0.4 WAR last year as his walk rate ballooned and batters were reluctant to chase his stuff out of the strike zone. Because of the missed time, Wood has no chance of having his $11 million option for the 2011 season vest (he needs to appear in 55 games for that to happen).

With Wood out, save ops will go to 24 year-old Chris Perez. The former Miami Hurricane came to Cleveland via St. Louis, as part of last June’s Mark DeRosa trade that also netted the Indians Jess Todd.

A 6-4, 230 pound righty, Perez uses a mid-90’s fastball and a hard, mid-80’s slider to wreak havoc out of the ‘pen. He punched out 12 batters per nine innings in the minors, and has 10.03 K/9 in 98.2 career big league frames. Perez’s heater has been worth +0.39 runs per 100 pitches, with the slider checking in at +0.43.

Control, however, has proven elusive. Perez walked six hitters per nine on the farm, and he has issued 4.47 BB/9 in the majors. As you might expect, he doesn’t do a great job of getting ahead in the count (his 57.9 first-pitch strike percentage is about average). Opposing batters haven’t been especially giddy to chase his pitches off the plate, as Perez has a career 21.3 outside-swing percentage (25 percent MLB average).

Homers are another possible problem. Perez has burned worms just 36.8 percent of the time over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, and has surrendered 1.19 dingers per nine innings.

CHONE and ZiPS give similar forecasts for the 2010 season:

CHONE: 9.82 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.13 FIP
ZiPS: 10.07 K/9, 4.62 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

If he’s still available, Perez should be picked up in all leagues. He’s going to whiff a ton of batters, though he could occasionally give owners indigestion due to the walks.

The news came down the pipe this morning that Joe Nathan has a torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament and is, in all likelihood, headed for Tommy John surgery. No pitchers in recent memory have rehabbed through a torn UCL. A moment of silence for Nathan’s 2010 season, and for all of the keeper league owners that were happy with their elite closer.

Now let’s have some fun with rampant closer speculation. The front-runner has to be Jon Rauch because of his mythical ‘experience in the role.’ Yes, because he closed for 40 innings in the National League, he’ll probably be the front runner to assume the mantle in Minnesota. Then again, one has to be concerned with his strikeout rate, which peaked in 2006 (8.47), recovered in 2008 (8.29) and dropped off a table last year in Arizona (6.30 overall). In general, he offers some nice strikeout ability (though not plus for a closer) and an above-average walk rate (2.89 career, 3.46 ’09 ML average).

On the other hand, there’s been some change in his mix as he’s aged, and it doesn’t seem to be good news. He’s using his fastball less every year (down to 52.8% from 67.9% in 2006) and replacing it with his curveball (up from 3.3% to 15.5% last year). The problem? His fastball has been worth 17.1 runs by linear weights over his career, His curveball? -1.3. Yeah, where is that fastball going?

Could the Twins instead turn to a man with a funky delivery that has his own blog and a penchant for juicing? What about Pat Neshek? He owns a sparkling 10.56 K/9 for his career, a decent 2.76 BB/9, and despite slight gopherball problems (1.12 HR/9 career), has a sparkling WHIP (0.96). He’s coming off TJ surgery of his own, but has pitched live ball in Spring Training (2 innings, 2 Ks and 1 hit if you must know). There is a whiff of Brad Ziegler about him, but here are his splits against lefties, from our very own splits pages: 8.59 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP (good), 55.9% FB, 12.1% HR/FB, 1.64 HR/9, 4.70 xFIP (bad). This is all against 185 total lefty batters faced… this sample is not big enough to say definitively that he cannot handle lefties. This book is not closed. And since it is such a fun read, there’s at least one fantasy analyst that is banging the drum for Neshek to take over the closer’s role for the year.

What about Matt Guerrier? What about him? With a below-average 6.01 career K/9, and no corresponding excellent ground ball rate (45.5% career) he’s squarely third on this list. His .222 BABIP last year will surely regress and the Twins will once again have the okay guy they’ve always had. No closer here, despite last year’s seemingly excellent numbers.

One last note – the possibility that the closer comes from outside the organization is reasonably high. The Cubs inquired with the Jays about Jason Frasor, and because that team is rebuilding, it seems that maybe also Scott Downs might be available. Anthony Castrovince, the Cleveland Indians reporter for MLB.com, speculated on Twitter about Kerry Wood being moved to the Twinkies. These options may all be more palatable to a Twins team that wants to compete in their new stadium. Hey, they all have ‘experience in the role.’

Toronto Blue Jays signed RHP Kevin Gregg to a one-year, $2.75 million contract, with a pair of club options.

According to Jordan Bastian’s MLB.com report, Gregg’s pact has two different club options. After next season’s Fall Classic, the Jays can do any of the following: say sayonara, retain Gregg at $4.5 million for 2011 or pick up a two-year option covering 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75 million. Gregg qualified as a Type A free agent, but the Cubs didn’t offer him arbitration. Thus, no draft pick changes hands.

The bespectacled, 31 year-old right-hander saw his ERA rise from the mid-three’s in 2007 and 2008 to a mediocre 4.72 mark this past year. However, a closer look at Gregg’s peripherals suggests his ’09 might have actually been better than the two previous seasons.

Gregg whiffed 9.31 batters per nine innings with Chicago, issuing 3.93 BB/9. The K rate was the second-best figure of the former Angel, Marlin and Cub’s career, and the walk rate was his lowest since 2006. He garnered more outside swings in ’09 (26.1%) than at any other point in his big league career. His BABIP wasn’t high (.277), nor was his rate of stranding runners on base very low (73.5). So, what’s the deal with the ERA?

Home runs. An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 39 GB%), Gregg had very low home run per fly ball rates in 2007 (5.9%) and 2008 (4.4%). In ’09, a whopping 15.3 percent of fly balls hit against Gregg became souvenirs. For comparison, the big league average is usually around 11-12 percent.

He was fortunate in ’07 and ’08, and had lousy luck in ’09. These things happen with relievers tossing 60-80 frames per year: a couple extra wall-scrapers are hit against a guy, and his overall line suffers. Gregg’s xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, was 4.16 in 2009. That was actually lower than ’07 (4.74) and ’08 (4.59).

Gregg doesn’t have the stuff typically associated with a late-game reliever. He’s a three-pitch guy, tossing a 91-92 MPH fastball (+0.67 runs/100 career), a low-80’s slider (+0.11) and the occasional mid-80’s splitter (+1.13). Over the past couple of years, Gregg has thrown fewer fastballs, mixing in more sliders instead. Perhaps as a result, Gregg’s percentage of pitchers within the zone has decreased. His InZone% was 50.4 in 2007, 49.5 in 2008 and 44.8 in 2009 (49-51% MLB average).

In Toronto, Gregg will compete with Scott Downs and Jason Frasor for save ops, assuming neither of those two are bartered before Opening Day.

Downs, 34 in March, is a groundball-centric lefty who uses a 89-90 MPH sinker with hellacious tailing action in on southpaw batters, as well as a big-breaking mid-70’s curveball. Downs has moved in the opposite direction as Gregg, progressively tossing more fastballs (from 63% in ’07 to 74% in ’09). He has a three-year xFIP of 3.38. Downs’ 2009 season was interrupted by a left foot injury that required surgery, as well as a strained right hamstring.

Frasor, 32, is a diminutive righty who pumps 93-94 MPH gas. That fastball has been a plus offering, with a career +0.94 run value per 100 pitches. He also features an average low-80’s slider (+0.02), with a few changeups/splitters sprinkled in. Frasor’s three-year xFIP is 4.01.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for our three closer contenders:

Gregg: 67 IP, 7.7 K/9, 4.16 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 4.32 FIP
Downs: 49 IP, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.67 FIP
Frasor: 51 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

Gregg figures to rebound somewhat next season, but intermittent control and fly ball proclivities make him an iffy high-leverage reliever. Toronto’s ninth-inning situation bears watching over the next couple of months.