Archive for Closers

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: The club’s acquisition of Valverde is looking pretty smart right now, even though he didn’t come cheap. The right-hander is tied with Toronto’s Kevin Gregg (another ’09-’10 free agent) for the league lead in saves with 10. Valverde’s strikeouts are down, but he’s allowed just six hits in 15.2 innings.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Robot Rivera just keeps on keepin’ on. The right-hander has allowed just three hits – and no earned runs – in 11.0 innings this season. While he still the best closer in baseball, Rivera’s strikeout rate remains significantly lower than it’s been over the past three seasons.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Like Rivera, Papelbon’s strikeout numbers are down (way down, actually, by about 4.0 K/9), but he just keeps getting the job done with nine saves in as many tries. His walk rate is also way up to 5.06 BB/9. He’s gotten the results but you should definitely be worried about his rates. It might be a good time to pawn Papelbon off on someone who’s distracted by the ERA and save total.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: It’s not supposed to get easier for you when you go from the National League to the American League, but don’t tell that to Gregg. He’s been lights-out in Toronto and has struck out 21 batters in 17.0 innings, with just four walks. All hail the cutter.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Rauch has pretty much laid to rest any concerns about the Twins’ closer situation. He’s remained reliable over the past six weeks with nine saves in 10 opportunities. Rauch is not as electric as some of the other closers (9 Ks in 14 IP) but you can’t spit on the fact he’s tied with four other closers for the second most saves in the AL. His 1.93 ERA is fourth amongst closers.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: The Royals bullpen is pretty much a mess but Soria has been a lone bright spot. The right-hander’s ERA is a little high but his xFIP (2.27) suggests it’s not all his fault. His 14.14 K/9 rate is tantalizing. He converted his only save opportunity last week.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: Bailey is making up for lost time after not having his first save opportunity until mid-April. The right-hander, though, did blow his first save of the year on May 11 in Texas. He’s done a good job of beating the sophomore jinx to this point, but his pitches haven’t been as sharp and his strikeout rate is down significantly over ’09.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Soriano has been a nice addition to the Rays club that gave up very little to acquire him. The right-hander hasn’t struck out as many batters in ’10 as in the past, but he’s a perfect 9-for-9 in saves and has a solid ERA at 1.93. He went 2-for-2 in saves this past week and hasn’t given up a run in five appearances.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz has had a couple hiccups with two blown saves on the season, but it’s been a very successful year for the 22-year-old to this point. The right-hander has shown excellent control (1.89 BB/9) but the extreme fly-ball tendency (GB rate is just 23.5%) is a little worrisome. He’s also been used very heavily by his manager, especially lately, which is never good to see with a young, talented arm like this.

Alfredo Simon | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: He hasn’t always been pretty while doing it, but the 29-year-old rookie has reeled off five saves in as many tries for the O’s club, which is desperate for some stability in the ninth inning. In 8.0 innings, Simon has walked five batters with nine Ks. His ERA is at 0.00 but he’s given up three unearned runs.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma’s early-season dominance appears to be over, although he’s still holding his own. He’s allowed runs in two of his last three appearances, and also had a blown save. He had just one save opportunity this past week and converted it.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes went 1-for-2 in save opportunities this past week and he’s been far from a sure thing this season since coming back from injury. There have been rumblings of a possible switch to Fernando Rodney, who filled in for Fuentes when he was hurt (and is 5-for-5 in saves). Fuentes is no sure thing right now.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks is another closer whose role is not exactly secure right now. The right-hander has a 6.23 ERA but his xFIP shows some light at the end of the tunnel (3.14). He also has a very good strikeout rate at 11.77 K/9. Jenks needs to show better command and get a little help with the balls in play (.478 BABIP-allowed).

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: It was a case of too little too late for Chris Perez, who slips into the set-up role now that Wood is back. Perez had actually settled into the role pretty well but Wood needs to build up his trade value. He hasn’t looked overly sharp since coming back and really isn’t any more of a sure thing than Perez was.

Mariano Rivera |Yankees

With Mo experiencing some soreness in his left side, Joba Chamberlain got the chance to pick up a couple saves. Rivera’s injury isn’t considered serious, though, and the ageless wonder has a 9/2 K/BB and a 3.60 xFIP in nine innings pitched. Joba, meanwhile, has 9.49 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and a 3.27 xFIP in 12.1 IP. His curve and changeup have essentially been scrapped out of the ‘pen, as Chamberlain has gone to his 93-94 MPH fastball 65 percent and his 86 MPH slider 30 percent.

Joakim Soria |Royals

Soria was smacked around for 2 HR by the Rangers yesterday, but he has still been filthy overall. In 12 IP, The Mexicutioner has 15 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 1.86 xFIP. His outside swing rate (35%) is a career high, as is his 14.5 swinging strike rate. He’s pitching as well as he ever has.

Andrew Bailey |Athletics

The yet-to-be-scored-upon Bailey has a 3.64 xFIP on the year, with 5.06 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 10.2 innings. The low K rate appears to be the product of Bailey placing the ball over the plate so often: his Zone% is 57.8 (48.2 big league average), and hitters have made contact with 87.7 percent of those in-zone offerings (Bailey’s Z-Contact was in the mid-seventies in 2009).

Rafael Soriano |Rays

The new Tampa closer is off to an OK start, with 8.25 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 4.20 xFIP. Curiously, Soriano’s swinging strike rate, 12.2% for his career, is just 7.5% in 2010. His contact rate is up nearly 10 percentage points as well. It’s just 12 innings, but it’s some worth monitoring.

Jonathan Papelbon |Red Sox

After posting a career-worst 3.98 xFIP in 2009, Papelbon is off to a poor start in 2010. In 15 frames, the part-time river dancer has 6.6 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 and a 5.23 xFIP. A .204 BABIP has obscured the tepid start (his ERA is 1.80). Why the lack of K’s? Papelbon’s whiff rate on his four-seam fastball has declined from 10.4% in 2009 to 9.2% in 2010, per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool. That ’09 mark, in turn, was a decline from his 12.2% whiff rate in 2008.

Neftali Feliz/Frank Francisco | Rangers

Feliz is still getting most save ops for Texas, though Francisco is in the mix as well. The 22-year-old Feliz has been fantastic thus far, with 11.05 K/9, 1.84 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP. Averaging 96-97 MPH with his heater and mixing in high-70’s curves and high-80’s changeups, Feliz has a 14.4% swinging strike rate. He’s not afraid to challenge hitters: his zone% is 57.1%, about 9 percentage points above the big league average. About the only concern here is the very low ground ball rate (24.3).

Francisco, coming off of a 2009 in which he posted a 3.53 xFIP, has dished out plenty of free passes. In 12.1 IP, he has issued 5.84 BB/9. Hitters haven’t chased his stuff out of the zone: Francisco’s outside swing rate is just 16.1 percent in 2010. With fewer K’s than usual (8.03 K/9), his xFIP is 5.24.

David Aardsma |Mariners

Despite a rise in ERA from 2.52 in 2009 to 3.38 this season, Aardsma actually has a lower xFIP in 2010 (3.62, compared to 4.12 in ’09). He had a very low 4.2 home run per fly ball rate last year, but that has risen to 15.4% so far this year. Prior to reaching the M’s, Aardsma’s control came and went. But he showed signs of improvement last year and currently has a career-best 3.38 BB/9, with a healthy 65.8 first pitch strike percentage.

Bobby Jenks |White Sox

Jenks has had a strange season, as he has posted 12.27 K/9 while getting swinging strikes a mild 8.8 percent. His control hasn’t been as sharp as usual (4.91 BB/9, 45.8 Zone%), but he has yet to serve up a homer after having poor luck on fly balls last year (17 HR/FB%). Instead, Jenks has been plagued by a .428 BABIP this year, which explains the ERA (4.09)/xFIP (2.36) split. What does that all mean? Not much, probably. He’ll likely settle in as a mid-to-high-three’s xFIP pitcher.

Jose Valverde |Tigers

Valverde has experienced a bizarre beginning in Detroit. Traditionally, Papa Grande misses lots of bats (career 10.75 K/9) and gets few grounders (38.4 GB%). With the Tigers, Valverde has 4.26 K/9 and a 71.4% rate of worm burners in 12.2 innings. His swinging strike rate, 13.1% in 2009, is 5.6% in 2010. Valverde’s outside swing rate has been cut in half (32% in ’09, 15.7% in ’10). In terms of pitch selection, the Baseball Info Solutions data says he’s going to a mid-80’s splitter far more often. Pitch F/X data, meanwhile, says he has thrown nothing but fastballs (that seems fishy). What’s going on here, Tigers fans?

Kevin Gregg |Blue Jays

The free agent signee has taken a firm grip on Toronto’s closer gig, whiffing 11.57 batters per nine frames, walking 1.29 and inducing ground balls at a 60 percent clip in 14 innings of work. Gregg’s contact rate is a career-low 71.8 percent, and his outside swing rate is a career-best 31.4. In the past, he used a low-90’s fastball 60-65% of the time. With the Jays, Gregg has gone to an 87-88 MPH cutter over a quarter of the time. The 31-year-old won’t keep up the 1.82 xFIP pace. But his strong performance, backed by a change in approach, bodes well for his future.

Jon Rauch |Twins

Though he won’t be confused with a relief ace, Rauch has done an OK job filling in for Joe Nathan with 6.75 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 4.01 xFIP in 12 innings. As has usually been the case, Rauch is pounding the zone: 52.2 percent of his pitches have been over the plate, and his first pitch strike percentage is 64.6.

Brian Fuentes/Fernando Rodney |Angels

Fuentes, who served a DL stint in April with a strained back suffered while weight lifting, didn’t flex his muscles on the mound last year (4.94 xFIP). In 5.2 IP in 2010, he has a 7/3 K/BB. Speaking of overpaid relievers (cue Homer: “Mmmmm…saaaaves), Fernando Rodney has a shiny ERA (2.63) but a mediocre 4.35 xFIP, with 6.59 K/9 and 4.61 BB/9. Unless there are eight Al’s behind him when he pitches, Rodney’s not keeping the .123 BABIP.

Chris Perez |Indians

The former Cards prospect turned in a promising 2009 season (10.75 K/9 and a 3.98 xFIP), but Perez has been putrid while filling in for Kerry Wood. In 9.1 IP, he has 4.82 K/9, 5.79 BB/9 and a 5.99 xFIP. The control issues aren’t surprising, given his career 4.58 BB/9 in the majors and 6 BB/9 in the minors, but the lack of whiffs is disconcerting. Perez’s swinging strike rate, 9.4% in ’09, is just 4.4%. Wood (4.11 xFIP in 2009) didn’t lock games down last year and his rehab outings haven’t been sharp, but he’s nearing a return from a back injury.

Alfredo Simon |Orioles

With Mike Gonzalez (shoulder) on the shelf and Jim Johnson in Norfolk, the 29-year-old (tomorrow) Simon is getting the chance to close out games. A 6-4, 230 pound righty who previously passed through the Philadelphia, San Francisco and Texas organizations (mostly as a starter), Simon missed nearly all of 2009 following Tommy John surgery. Despite blistering fastball velocity and a hard splitter, Simon has never missed a ton of bats (6.9 K/9 in the minors). He did, however, begin the 2010 season with a 14/5 K/BB in 17 IP at Triple-A.

Strong Performers

Heath Bell |Padres

Bell boasts a 2.10 xFIP on the season, with 13.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Of course, just about every San Diego reliever is thrashing opposing batters: the Padres have a league-best 3.30 ‘pen xFIP.

Jonathan Broxton |Dodgers

Big Jon has a career-best 15.3 swinging strike rate this year, quite the accomplishment considering he posted 14.5% marks in 2008 and 2009. Batters are flailing at his stuff to the tune of a 40.7 outside swing percentage (27% MLB average). The result? a 1.21 xFIP, with 14.9 K/9 and 0.93 BB/9 in 9.2 IP.

Billy Wagner |Braves

Wagner continues pumping mid-90’s gas, getting swinging strikes 12.2 percent and inducing weak contact: his infield/fly percentage is 18.2 percent (the MLB average is around 11%). He hasn’t gotten many save ops, but he has a 3.08 xFIP, 13.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 10 innings of work.

Carlos Marmol |Cubs

In 13.2 innings, the Cubs’ stopper has punched out 27 hitters.. That’s 17.78 K/9 (eat your heart out, Broxton). Marmol’s swinging strike rate is 17.1 percent, and he’s actually getting ahead of hitters for a change (66.7 first pitch strike%, compared to a career 52.6% average). That has resulted in 4.61 BB/9, downright surgical control for a guy who issued nearly eight free passes per nine frames last year. His xFIP sits at two.

Brian Wilson |Giants

Wilson’s whiffing a career-high 10.97 per nine innings, with 4.22 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP in 10.2 innings. He’s getting plenty of grounders, with a 69.2 GB%, and he’s getting ahead in the count (73.3 first pitch strike percentage). While Wilson has typically used his mid-90’s fastball about 70 percent of the time, he’s going to his high-80’s cutter more than ever this season.

Chad Qualls |Diamondbacks

Huh? What’s Qualls doing here?

Arizona’s relief corps has a ghastly 5.12 xFIP for the season (only the Indians have a worse mark), but Qualls shouldn’t be discarded based on his 7.36 ERA. He sports a 3.16 xFIP in 11 IP, with 9 K/9, 3.27 BB/9 and typical ground ball tendencies (54.3 GB%). Needless to say, hits won’t continue to fall in against him 39.4 percent of the time, his 61.7% strand rate will rise, and he won’t give up home runs like he’s throwing underhanded on a little league field (25 HR/FB%). Available in nearly a quarter of Yahoo leagues, Qualls is a good buy-low candidate.

Francisco Rodriguez |Mets

K-Rod has a microscopic ERA (0.71 in 12.2 IP), but that has much to do with a .233 BABIP, a 92.9% strand rate and nary a home run surrendered. His xFIP is 4.07, so he’s not suddenly dealing like he did during his halcyon Angels days in the early-and-mid-aughts.

Matt Capps |Nationals

Capps is racking up saves and has a 1.10 ERA. To the former Pirate’s credit, he is pitching decently: 8.82 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 and a 3.90 xFIP. Capps’ outside swing rate (39.5%) and swinging strike rate (11.3%) are career bests. But he’s not going to continue to strand 91.4% of base runners, and his HR/FB% of five will likely rise.

Leo Nunez |Marlins

Like the two guys ahead of him, Nunez has a fantastic ERA (0.79) and merely good component stats (8.74 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 3.79 xFIP). His strand rate sits at a perfect 100 percent, and his BABIP is .087. There’s a better chance of the Fish selling out all their remaining home games than Nunez keeping those numbers up.

Francisco Cordero |Reds

Cordero’s xFIPs over the 2007-2010 seasons? 2.82, 3.98, 4.06 and 4.37. He’s not a bad option, but the 35-year-old (this week) shouldn’t be confused with an elite-level reliever. In 16.1 IP, Cordero has 8.27 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

Matt Lindstrom |Astros

After posting mediocre peripherals with the Marlins in 2008 (4.24 xFIP) and 2009 (4.65), Lindstrom has started his Astros career with a 3.02 xFIP in 12 IP. He has posted rates of 8.25 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9, with a 58.3 GB% that’s well above his 47.2% career average. According to his Pitch F/X page, Lindstrom is going to a two-seamer, with more horizontal and less vertical break, this season. His first pitch strike percentage was just 54.2 last year, but it’s up to 66% in 2010.

Ryan Franklin |Cardinals

Whatever Faustian bargain Franklin made last year to avoid homers (3.2 HR/FB% in 2009), it has carried over to 2010: he has yet to give up a round-tripper in 12 innings. His control has been fantastic (no walks, 73.9 first pitch strike%), and his xFIP is 3.76.

Franklin Morales |Rockies

The southpaw with the herky-jerky delivery is missing the zone often (6.55 BB/9, 50.9 first pitch strike%), but he hasn’t compensated by missing bats (6.55 K/9, 5.4 swinging strike rate). It’s just 11 innings, but Morales’ 6.46 xFIP suggests that he still has a ways to go. Huston Street, meanwhile, is nearing a return from a shoulder injury.

Octavio Dotel |Pirates

Dotel hasn’t been as bad as his 8.74 ERA suggests: quirky BABIP (.411), left on base (50.6%) and HR/FB (16.7%) can happen in a small sample size of 11.1 innings. His xFIP is 4.45, as Dotel is missing plenty of lumber like usual (11.91 K/9) and walking plenty as well (4.76 BB/9).

Keep a close eye on Evan Meek, the 26-year-old former Rule V pick from the Rays. Equipped with low-to-mid-90’s heat, a low-90’s cutter, and low-80’s breaking stuff, Meek has long missed bats and racked up ground balls. His control, however, held him back. Not in 2010. In 17 IP, Meek has a K per inning and 2.65 BB/9, retaining a strong 53.5 GB% and posting a 2.94 xFIP.

Trevor Hoffman |Brewers

With a 6.60 xFIP in 10 innings, the 43-year-old changeup artist is scuffling. Tossing his fastball more and his signature off-speed pitch less, Hoffman’s swinging strike rate has dipped from 10.6% in 2009 to 5.4% this year. Always an extreme fly ball pitcher, Hoffman’s ground ball rate in 2010 is 12.8%. Carlos Villanueva and LaTroy Hawkins are possibilities if Trevor Time continues to be a nightmare for the Brew Crew.

Brad Lidge/Jose Contreras |Phillies

Folding chair 1, Ryan Madson 0. Following surgery to repair his broken right toe (no word on his bruised ego), Madson will be out a minimum of two months.

Speaking of wounded egos, Lidge returned to action on April 30th after spending the first month of the season rehabbing from offseason elbow and knee injuries. So far, he’s sitting 92.5 MPH with his fastball, continuing a decline that has seen his heater dip from an average of 96 MPH in 2005. Lidge wasn’t 7.21 ERA bad in ’09, but he’s got a lot to prove considering the 4.76 xFIP that he posted.

Contreras, meanwhile, is dealing out of the ‘pen. The 38 year-old has 14 K’s and no walks in 8.2 IP so far, with an average fastball velocity of 94.8 MPH and a slider at 88-89 MPH (he was 90-92 MPH with the fastball as a starter, and 85-85 with the slider).

Even though the Yankees had a three run lead in the 9th inning on Monday night, the familiar chords of Enter Sandman did not blare from the loud speakers in the Bronx. Much to everyone’s surprise, Mariano Rivera was unavailable because of what’s being described as a “twinge in his flank,” which in english means tightness in his side. He actually wasn’t available over the weekend either, but an opportunity for his services never arose.

It’s not considered a serious injury, and the team has indicated that they expect him to need just another day or two of rest. Just like tonight, Rivera’s shoes will be filled by starter turned reliever turned starter turned reliever turned starter again and then finally a reliever (we think) Joba Chamberlain. He’s not the same guy that burst onto the scene in 2007 anymore, but he still offers strikeouts (8.71 K/9) and decent ERA (3.18) and WHIP (1.24) totals. The Yankees have two more games left with Orioles on Tuesday and Wednesday, so there’s a pretty good chance a save opportunity will comes his way in the next two days.

It’s not a long-term pick up, but Joba will give you a chance to vulture a save or two this week, which is always appreciated. He’s owned in just 28% of Yahoo! leagues, so if you run out and grab him now you might be able to have him available for tomorrow night.

I wasn’t the only one surprised to see Sergio Romo trot out of the Giants’ bullpen to start the ninth inning with a three run lead last night, some of the beat writers on Twitter were wondering what happened to closer to Brian Wilson as well. Romo recorded two quick outs before giving up a double to Melvin Mora, then was replaced by Jeremy Affeldt who got the lefty swinging Seth Smith to ground out to end the game and earn the save.

After the game we found out that Wilson is dealing with a groin strain, but like most pro athletes he doesn’t think it’s that big of a deal. His prognosis is still uncertain, but fantasy owners have to prepare for his time away. Romo and Affeldt are the obvious candidates to fill in, so let’s compare…

Romo: 1.54 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 3.64 career xFIP, 1.70 gmLI
Affeldt: 3.00 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 4.30 career xFIP, 1.75 gmLI

Just looking at those numbers, it’s clear Romo deserves to fill in for Wilson for however long that may be. Of course, common sense doesn’t always win out, and Affeldt has a distinct advantage in the Proven Veteran™ and bigger salary categories. Those aren’t the best things to base decisions off of, but we have to acknowledge that it happens.

Of course, Romo would have had the save last night if not for the double by Mora, but Bruce Bochy went right to Affeldt to face the lefty. Because of that, I’m tempted to say that Bochy will just roll with the matchups for now. In deeper leagues I would grab Romo because he’ll do more for your WHIP and K categories, and if it is going to be a matchup situation, the saves are going to completely unpredictable anyway.

There are definitely some National League closers on the hot-seat this week.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: When you look back to his 7.91 BB/9 rate in ’09, it’s hard to believe that Marmol is arguably the most dominating late-game reliever in the Majors right now. He has a 16.03 K9 rate and a 0.84 ERA (1.97 xFIP). He’s also allowed just six hits in 10.2 innings of work. He still has just three saves, though, and he’s had one opportunity since April 14 (which he blew). He’s allowed hits in just four games and three of his six hits came in one game (His only blown save). The saves will come.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Playing for a team that doesn’t score a lot of runs can really pay off for a closer. Capps leads the Majors with 10 saves and he currently has a 0.68 ERA. He has been a little lucky, though, with a 4.25 xFIP and his control has not been the sharpest at 4.05 BB/9. He made four appearances this past week without allowing a run and he went 3-for-3 in saves.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: The Mets club has really turned its season around, but Rodriguez is still struggling in the overall saves department with just three. The goods is that his ERA is just 0.84 (4.02 xFIP, though) and he’s striking out a lot of batters. The saves will come and he’s had all three of his saves in the past eight days.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez’ ERA currently sits at zero and his strikeout rate is a career high 9.64 K/9. It remains to be seen if it will remain at that level over the course of the season, but his owners will take it right now, one way or the other. Nunez has allowed just one hit on the season (April 11) but he’s lacked save opportunities; he converted his only opp this past week.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin is a perfect example of the good things that can happen when you throw strikes. His strikeout rate is a baffling 2.70 K/9 but he has seven saves in as many tries. He was 2-for-2 over the past seven days. He hasn’t allowed a run since April 16.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero has allowed a lot of base runners – 12 hits, seven walks in 12.0 innings – but he’s’ second in the NL in saves with eight. Although he’s struggled with his control, the Reds’ closer has a solid strikeout rate at 9.49 K/9. Over the past week he’s been worked hard (surprise) and was 2-for-2 in save opportunities.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton is currently bringing the pain to National League hitters: He’s striking them out (13.50 K/9), he’s not issuing walks (1.13 BB/9), and he’s not allowing runs (0.00 ERA). Although he has yet to allow a runner to cross home plate, Broxton did blow a save this week and he gave up three hits in two appearances.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Lindstrom has been surprisingly effective so far this season. He’s a perfect 6-for-6 in save opportunities and he hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past four outings, including three during the last week. Unfortunately, his control has slipped recently and he’s walked three batters in his last two appearances, so monitor him closely for regression.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: On the year, Bell has allowed 10 hits in 9.1 innings but he’s 6-for-7 in save opportunities. He’s also striking out batters at a clip of 13.00 K/9. He appeared in three games this week (April 26-28) and went 2-for-2 in saves. He allowed three hits but struck out six.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: It’s been a frustrating year for Wilson owners. The closer has a 2.25 ERA, a strikeout rate of 10.13 K/9 and a ground-ball rate of 70%, but he has just four saves in five tries. The rate of save opportunities picked up this past week and he went 2-for-3. He’s given up runs in just one outing all season (April 28).

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: One save. That’s all Wagner has managed this season despite a respectable ERA at 2.57 and a strikeout rate of 16.71 K/9. Overall, the veteran has had just two save opportunities all year and his last one came on April 9. Talk about bad luck… but it might be a good time to try and grab him in a trade.

Franklin Morales | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: At first glance, the ERA is OK at 3.72 but it gets much worse if you look at the xFIP of 5.99. Morales also has a strikeout rate of just 5.59 and he’s allowed nine hits in 9.2 innings. The young right-hander appeared in two games this past week but did not have a save opportunity.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: The 9.00 ERA is not pretty but the xFIP is just 3.28 and Qualls has produced a large number of strikeouts (10.00 K/9). He gave up a run in his last outing, but he was a perfect 3-for-3 in saves this past week. Perhaps he’s turning things around?

Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: With Brad Lidge close to activation, Madson’s save opportunities are about to diminish, although the club has said that it will ease the veteran back into the job. It’s about time to cut bait on Madson (at least move him to the bench), at least for now. It’s not a great loss, as he was just 4-for-6 in save opportunities with a 7.00 ERA (but 2.79 xFIP).

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Despite a strikeout rate of 11.57 K/9 on the season, it’s been a rough month for Dotel, who has a 10.61 ERA. This past week has been particularly ugly and he allowed nine runs (seven earned) over a three game stretch between April 22 and 28. Eno recently looked at the situation with a little more depth.

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Like Dotel, Hoffman has had a rough year, and the past week hasn’t been a picnic, either. His ERA currently sits at 13.00 and he’s allowed 15 hits in 9.0 innings or work. He got into three games in the last seven days and allowed six runs while blowing both of his save opportunities. Again, Eno looked more in-depth at the Milwaukee situation.

After a few weeks of steady movement, the closer roles in the American League are holding steady.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma is still ‘The Man’ in terms of overall save total with eight. He blew his first save of the year this past week, but the right-hander was successful in two other attempts. All his runs allowed on the season have come in the one game against the White Sox. Everyone has an off-day now and then; Aardsma is still a top AL – and mixed league – closer option.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Gregg finally allowed his first walk of the season and it came at a really bad time (it led to a Toronto loss). He was, though, a perfect 2-for-2 in save opportunities over a four-game stretch this past week. He struck out seven batters in 4.2 innings of work. The cutter continues to do wonders for him.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: No signs of cracks in the foundation just yet. Rauch has seven saves in nine appearances on the year. This past week, he made two appearances and went 1-for-2 in saves. That blown save was his first of the season and he ended up recording the win.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria appeared in three games this week but he had just one save opportunity, which he converted. In 3.2 innings, he struck out six batters. Soria is a strong closer option, but Kansas City needs to get the lead to him.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: It was a quiet week for Rivera. He appeared in just one game and it wasn’t even a save opportunity. The Yankees club is going to keep on winning so the save opportunities will come. Rivera has already shown this season that he’s still not slowing down.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: On the flip side of Rivera we have Papelbon. The Red Sox closer was a busy man this week with four saves in as many appearances. The right-hander had a bit of a hiccup against the Orioles (3 H, 1 R), but he still got the job done. Overall, the strikeout rate remains low and the walk rate is high; the .195 BABIP-against is really helping him right now, so be wary of his recent success.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: The save opportunity can be an elusive beast and Bailey has yet to tame it this season. Despite not allowing a run in eight appearances so far this season, the sophomore closer has just two saves in as many opportunities. He came out throwing strikes this past week; of his 25 pitches thrown, 19 were strikes (76%).

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: The second-year closer has seen a huge drop in his strikeout rate so far this season (7.88 compared to 12.13 K/9 in ’09) but he’s still a perfect 5-for-5 in saves. He was a perfect 1-for-1 this week in two appearances. With the Rays club playing well, Soriano should be provided plenty of opportunities.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: First the good news: Valverde has seven saves and a 0.82 ERA. Now the bad news: His BABIP-allowed is .133, his FIP is 4.74, and his strikeout rate is 4.09 K/9. If you want to take a positive spin to the numbers, then you’d point out that Valverde is succeeding despite modest numbers. The pessimist will simply say that’s his been lucky and that his luck is bound to change. This past week, Valverde appeared in four games and saved two in as many attempts. Although his strikeout rate is down, the Tigers closer has had a lot of success with his splitter and his ground-ball rate is currently 73.3%, which bodes well for his success (although it doesn’t help his fantasy owners in the K-department).

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks’ strikeout rate of 14.00 K/9 is no doubt welcomed by his owners. The 6.00 BB/9 rate, though, is not so nice. Overall, Jenks has four saves on the year and has yet to blow a save. This past week, he was 1-for-1 in opportunities and appeared in three games. He was roughed up in his non-save appearances with four runs allowed in 2.0 innings.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes was solid this past week. He saved two games in as many tries and did not allow a run in three appearances. He even struck out four batters in three innings.

Jim Johnson | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: The 6.23 ERA jumps out at you, but his xFIP is 3.21. Johnson has also done a nice job of limiting the walks (2.08 BB/9) and the homers (none). He appeared in three games this past week and did not have a save opportunity. Johnson was also roughed up by Boston for two runs in 2.0 innings on April 25. The hard-throwing Alfredo Simon was recently recalled and recorded a save in his first game. He could cut into Johnson’s save opportunities.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz was human this past week and his ERA jumped to 5.91, although his xFIP is much better at 3.62. The youngster was used heavily and appeared in four games despite having just two save opportunities (He went 1-for-2). During that span of games, Feliz allowed 10 hits and six runs in 4.0 innings.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Well, the xFIP is ugly at 6.95 and the walk rate is atrocious at 8.10. His K/BB rate is 0.50. It’s kind of a miracle that Perez is 4-for-5 in save opportunities. The Indians might have to look at another option soon unless Perez can throw more strikes.

Yesterday, we took a look at the guys that might replace Trevor Hoffman if he goes down with injury. Today, it’s time to look at another old dude poorly plying his trade at the back end of a bullpen – Octavio Dotel.

Dotel was a medium-priced low-risk signing that they could move out of the closer’s role without too much backlash, but the Bucs could also gain from pumping his value up and trading him to a contender, so they may give him some leash yet. He’s still doing his high-walk, high-strikeout thing, and is obviously suffering from his .456 BABIP-induced bad luck. His xFIP of 4.49 does not induce a ton of confidence on the other hand. His walks have been trending north for a while now, and he’s giving up over two home runs per nine right now. He could lose the role.

As with yesterday, we’ll run a few stats out for each contender. It seems that gmLI is a decent proxy for “Manager’s Confidence,” as it measures the leverage index of the situation at the point of the game when the pitcher enters. A higher gmLI means that the manager is consistently putting a player into the game in tough situations. As Brian Joura pointed out in the upcoming podcast, that could just be a relic of a manager’s static bullpen roles (he always pitches a certain guy in the 7th, and there have just happened to be a ton of high-leverage situations in the 7th this year), but a check of the leaderboard shows some of the better non-closer pitchers rank highly in gmLI. Also, we used holds plus saves over holds plus saves plus blown saves because a blown hold results in a blown save and that stat seems to better represent the save % for a pitcher who has been both a closer and a setup man.

Evan Meek 0.64 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 4.23 career xFIP, 4/6 career holds+saves / opps, 0.69 2010 gmLI
DJ Carrasco 5.00 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 4.47 career xFIP, 19/27 career holds+saves / opps, 0.87 2010 gmLI
Joel Hanrahan 9.95 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 4.36 career xFIP, 28/37 career holds+saves / opps, 0.82 2010 gmLI
Javier Lopez 3.38 ERA, 6.52 xFIP, 4.51 career xFIP, 67/74 career holds+saves / opps, 0.95 2010 gmLI
Jack Taschner 4.91 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 5.01 career xFIP, 33/42 career holds+saves / opps, 0.29 2010 gmLI
Brendan Donnelly 7.00 ERA, 6.19 xFIP, 4.07 career xFIP, 106/116 career holds+saves / opps, 1.37 2010 gmLI

Um, yeah, that’s a pretty terrible bullpen. And a terrible team that can barely get a high leverage situation to their relievers at all. Looks like the manager likes Donnelly’s experience, but he’s not providing results, and his career xFIP is not that much better than the obvious front-runner, Evan Meek. Lopez just has too poor a split vs righties to use as a closer (5.03 xFIP, 3.95 K/9 vs righties), and everyone else is scuffling. Taschner might be considered competition for Meek if only his gmLI was any higher. Looks like he’s got mop-up duty right now. Hanrahan is the only one that has been a closer, but he wasn’t especially good at it and almost has a double-digit ERA right now.

Meek was pretty good last year and cut his walk rate in half so far this year. He’s the best Dotel insurance and a sure-fire pickup in deeper leagues right now.

Trevor Hoffman just blew his fourth save of the season in seven chances. He has already given up six home runs this year, a number which he has only surpassed once in the last nine years. Nine years. He’s not walking anybody still, but he’s also not striking anybody out (4.5 per nine).

The pitching mix is off. It’s hard to tell if it’s just a sample size thing, but all of a sudden Hoffman is actually favoring his 85 MPH “heater” over his changeup (+43.4 runs career), and it’s not doing him any favors. Why is he throwing the changeup at a career low rate (17.8% this year, 29% career)? It could be injury, and a DL stint may be on the way.

Time for a little rampant speculation for his replacement. Here are the candidates, with some relevant statistical information.

LaTroy Hawkins, 8.62 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 3.79 career xFIP, 225/277 career holds+saves / opps, 1.20 2010 gmLI
Carlos Villanueva, 0.00 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 4.19 career xFIP, 44/51 career holds+saves / opps, 0.83 2010 gmLI
Todd Coffey, 3.72 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 3.99 career xFIP, 67/79 career holds+saves / opps, 0.72 2010 gmLI

Coffey isn’t killing it right now, and he doesn’t have a great history of racking up saves when given the chance. His career xFIP is pretty good, but just judging from when his manager is choosing to use him this year, he doesn’t seem like the guy.

Villanueva, on the other hand, is killing it this year and also took up the closer mantle late last year when Hoffman went down. His career xFIP is misleading, as he’s racked up 27 starts worth of innings which most definitely had a higher xFIP than he’s put up as a reliever. Brian Joura just talked him up two days ago as a good dark horse candidate for saves. In fact, he might be my choice for closing… if I were running the Brewers.

Unfortunately, I am not. (I mean unfortunately for me, I don’t pretend to know exactly what is right for the Brewers in this situation.) Instead, it seems most likely to be LaTroy Hawkins, who incidentally also owns the highest salary of the group. Despite a poor ERA, Hawkins has been performing right around his career levels. But most importantly, his manager is running him out there in important situations. He has the highest leverage index upon entering games (gmLI), and it seems we could use that as a proxy for “Manager Confidence” in this case. Hawkins looks like the pickup if you are speculatin’.

We looked at the National League closers earlier today, so the American League contingent is now due for some love.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Put up your hand if you’re surprised to see Rivera under the “strong performance” column. Hmm, no one. The ageless wonder has yet to allow an earned run this season and he’s a perfect 6-for-6 in save opps. A couple things to note, though: His strikeout rate is down about 2.0 K/9, and he has a BABIP of .179. He’s been very good, but his domination of the league is not going to last forever.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: The Royals bullpen leads the AL with five blown saves so far this season, but you cannot fault Soria. The right-hander has been successful in four of his five tries. He’s given up just three hits and one walk on the year, and has nine Ks in 6.0 innings of work. Soria was perfect in save opportunities this past week (2-for-2 against Minnesota and Toronto).

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Free agent Valverde did not come cheap during the off-season but he’s been worth every penny so far for the Tigers. The veteran’s five-save total is tied for second in the AL and his ERA currently sits at 1.29. He’s given up four hits in 7.0 innings but has just four Ks. He was a perfect 3-for-3 in save opportunities this past week.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma is tied for the AL lead in saves with Rivera and Jon Rauch. The Mariners closer has yet to allow a run this season and he’s given up just one hit and two walks. He also has seven Ks to his credit. Those 38 saves in ’09 appear to have been for real, and playing in Seattle has really helped his fly-ball tendencies. He was 2-for-2 in save opps this past week.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Cubs fans are probably scratching their heads right about now. Gregg… a strong performer? Well, he’s wrestled the closer’s job away from Jason Frasor and is a perfect 4-for-4 in saves. Even odder, his control has been outstanding and he has yet to walk a batter in 6.1 innings. He’s allowed just four hits and has seven strikeouts.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Although his overall numbers are pretty average, Rauch has successfully ended six wins without a blown save. His ERA sits at 1.29 and he’s given up six hits in 7.0 innings. Rauch has recorded five Ks.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Papelbon’s teammates have been struggling but he’s done what he’s been asked to do with three saves in as many tries. He has, though, taken one loss on the season. Papelbon has also given up six walks – with just 4 Ks – in 8.1 innings, so he’s clearly not at his best right now. The main culprit appears to be a lack of command with his fastball. He was solid in his last game (against Texas on April 21) with one strikeout and five ground-ball outs in two innings.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: The sophomore closer finally has some saves to his credit after knocking them out over the past eight days. Bailey’s strikeout rate is a little puzzling, as it’s down from 9.83 to 3.60 K/9 this season over last. He hasn’t struck out a batter since April 12, and his last one prior to that was on opening day. On the positive side, he has just one walk.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: The juggernaut Rays club has not needed to rely too heavily on its closer so far this season. When he’s been called upon, though, Soriano has been perfect with four saves in as many chances. He also has a win to his credit. Soriano has appeared in just one game over the past week.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Closing for a team whose offense is last in the Majors in batting average means there probably aren’t going to be a ton of save opportunities coming your way (unless you have great starting pitching). Jenks has been perfect so far this year in terms of saves, but he’s had just three chances. His ERA sits at 1.50 and he’s struck out eight in 6.0 innings.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: After hitting some turbulence in the early going, things appear to be leveling out for Perez. In three appearances during the past seven days, the former Cardinal was 2-for-2 in save opportunities and, perhaps more importantly, he did not allow a walk in 2.2 innings. Perez had previously walked five batters in three innings of work. He’s actually only given up runs in one appearance this season (3 in 1.0 IP vs Detroit on April 11).

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Just activated off the disabled list, Fuentes blew a save against Detroit on April 21. He gave up two runs in two-thirds of an inning on two walks, two hits and a homer. He’ll likely get a chance to redeem himself this weekend.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: The 20 year old Feliz has stolen the closer’s gig away from Frank Francisco and the rookie is a perfect 2-for-2 in save opportunities so far. He has 10 Ks in 6.2 innings and has given up just two hits on the year (both came on Opening Day).

Jim Johnson | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: Johnson has taken over the role from the injured (and ineffective) Mike Gonzalez. Johnson has had a bit of a rough introduction to the role, as he blew his first two save opportunities of the year on April 13 and 17. He finally notched his first successful save on April 18 in Oakland. Johnson is worth a pick-up considering that Gonzalez is probably out for a while, but the new closer won’t record a ton of strikeouts or be overly dominant.